BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Some slightly better numbers for the Coalition improve their position in the final BludgerTrack reading for the year, although they remain fatally weak in Queensland.

With last week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid shift back to the Coalition after a recent Labor blowout, converting into a 0.6% increase on two-party preferred and four on the seat projection. The Coalition is up even more on the primary vote, although this is basically at the expense of One Nation (see the sidebar for full results). Furthermore, The Australian published the Newspoll quarterly state breakdowns for October to December this week, which is the last polling data we will get until well into January, and this too has been added to the mix.

I’ve been noting in recent weeks that BludgerTrack’s readings for Western Australia and especially Queensland were looking off beam, and anticipated that the long-awaited addition of Newspoll data would ameliorate this. However, the Newspoll result backed up the picture of a huge swing to Labor in Queensland, of 9%, resulting in a two-party lead of 55-45. Labor’s lead in Queensland has nonetheless narrowed in BludgerTrack this week, reducing their projected seat gain from an entirely implausible 16 seats to a still rather unlikely 11, but this is as much to do with more normal-looking numbers from Essential over the past two weeks than Newspoll.

A very likely problem here is that both Newspoll and BludgerTrack are assuming preferences will behave as they did in 2016, which means a roughly even split of preferences from One Nation. The Queensland state election result suggests the support One Nation has built since comes largely from former Coalition voters, resulting in a stronger flow of preferences to them – of about 65%, in the case of the state election. In the new year, I will begin calculating preferences by splitting the difference between 2016 election flows and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences (which have been leaning too far the other way). This will result in more conservative readings of Labor’s two-party support.

In addition to the five seat shift to the Coalition in Queensland, BludgerTrack has the Coalition up a seat in New South Wales – but down two in Western Australia, where the Newspoll numbers (again with some help from a more normal-looking result from Essential Research) have taken the wind out of an outlier result from the state in the Ipsos poll a fortnight ago.

The leadership rating trends have been updated with the latest Newspoll results, producing a slight drop in both leaders’ net approval ratings. However, this too suffers a deficiency to which I will make an overdue correction in the new year, namely that no account is made for the idiosyncrasies of particular pollsters – such as lower approval and higher disapproval ratings from Newspoll, and lower uncommitted ratings from Ipsos. This means changes from week to week often reflect the specific pollsters that have published results, as much as meaningful change in the numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,297 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. P1 and JW

    Majority of Republicans wanted Direct election.

    This is fact. This is the model that should have been presented. No matter how you dress it up the politicians failed.

    NOT any voter.

  2. Jamie Tarabay Verified account @jamietarabay
    7h7 hours ago
    In his New Year’s speech, Kim Jong Un says “The entire mainland of the US is within the range of our nuclear weapons and the nuclear button is always on the desk of my office. They should accurately be aware that this is not a threat but a reality.” @cnni reports. #NorthKorea

  3. guytaur @ #3052 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    P1 and JW

    Majority of Republicans wanted Direct election.

    This is fact. This is the model that should have been presented. No matter how you dress it up the politicians failed.

    NOT any voter.

    You fail to mention that after a considered process the Republican convention decided that appointing the HoS by Parliament was the better option. 🙂

  4. Just to clarify, the Republican convention was the Constitutional convention selected to consider different models.

  5. Barney

    The Convention was set up and run by Mr Howard’s party. Mr Turnbull also had a big hand in this failure.

    All those in the convention except a minority ignored the polling saying what would get a yes vote.

  6. OnceUponARoss: They are smoking pot on #cnnnye and somewhere Jeff Sessions is having a heart attack and liberals are living their best life.

  7. guytaur @ #3059 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:15 pm

    Barney

    The Convention was set up and run by Mr Howard’s party. Mr Turnbull also had a big hand in this failure.

    All those in the convention except a minority ignored the polling saying what would get a yes vote.

    They were not there to look at polling, they were there to consider what would be the best model for a Republic in Australia.

    They did this and came up with chosen by Parliament.

    Direct election was found wanting.

  8. guytaur:

    A newspaper article opinion piece?

    Is there any current polling that supports your statement, because I would be interested to see it.

  9. Barney
    hilojo: @abcnews Keating concerned citizens might elect #Republic President “of the wrong calibre” – so Parliament should appoint. BUT Parliament is replete with those of poor calibre – especially mediocre MEN!

    This is the excuse for appointing. Its not trusting the voters.

  10. Confessions

    Mr Beazley was quoting polling of the day.

    As we are arguing why the referendum failed that is a very important fact of why the vote failed at the time.

    Today is a whole new ball game.

  11. P1

    If its the same “minimalist” model presented again yes I will.

    Better a monarchy than a Republic on the path to dictatorship.

    The current system has the dead hand of custom on conventions to protect it. Better than ditching thats custom and leaving the dangerous powers in place.

  12. Guytaur

    Mr Beazley was quoting polling of the day.

    So you are quoting what Kimbo said about polling nearly 20 years ago. I don’t think you should be so dogmatic about what the people want without providing some recent evidence.

  13. guytaur

    hilojo: @abcnews Keating concerned citizens might elect #Republic President “of the wrong calibre” – so Parliament should appoint. BUT Parliament is replete with those of poor calibre

    Ah yes PJK , trust the pollies to make the “right” choice . Now what was it he said about the Senate “unrepresentative swill” ?

  14. Dave

    I am near 100% certain that the Turnbull Government’s guiding principle is cross-your-fingers.

    BTW, Yasukuni Shrine has Locomotive C5631 as it No 1 exhibit.

    It pulled the first Japanese train along the Burma Railway.

  15. guytaur @ #3064 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    Barney
    hilojo: @abcnews Keating concerned citizens might elect #Republic President “of the wrong calibre” – so Parliament should appoint. BUT Parliament is replete with those of poor calibre – especially mediocre MEN!

    This is the excuse for appointing. Its not trusting the voters.

    Well if I remember rightly Dick Smith was at the time thought to be someone who might run. 🙂

  16. Note in that Guardian article despite the lack of technology at the time Keating could see the online revolution coming.

  17. There is very little point in raking over the disappointments of a vote taken a generation ago. If there is to be a Republic, it will be because voters in 2020 or 2022 will have chosen to support it. So we should inquire of the voters just what it is that they would support…and then we should do what they want. It will be their Republic, all said and done.

    Democratic expression is very powerful, as the ME vote has just shown us. We should tap that same force….the force for equality and for reform. Australians are not immune to social or legal reform. Not at all.

  18. It would be somewhat incongruous if Australia was to become a Republic, but maintained the Union Jack on our flag.

    There’s another civilised debate we can look forward to having.

    I wonder if the Productivity Commission could do a study on the cost/benefits of becoming a Republic?

  19. Barney

    Dick Smith could run for Parliament. He could get elected to head of a major party and become PM.

    Directly elected makes that harder than being appointed under the minimalist model of which it was the conjecture that Dick Smith would run.

  20. briefly

    Yes I agree with you. I think thats Mr Shorten’s plan. Thus going to the whole length of appointing a shadow minister for a Republic.

    Its certainly not we can’t do a Republic now.

  21. guytaur:

    A debate and considered look at models today might well be very different than 20 years ago.

    In any case I’m not going to get worked up about it until such time there is actually something proposed. Turnbull just seems to be kite flying atm as a way of taking back control of the political narrative from Labor.

  22. From my unreliable memory most people wanted a republic but Howard turned it into a battle between the model to be adopted . Which of course meant yuuge division amongst supports of a republic and so there ‘endithed’ the chance of a republic.

  23. Confessions

    Thats kite flying is only possible because Labor has already like with ME nailed its colours to the mast on a Republic. Along with other parties independents.

    Its the right wing that supports a Monarchy continuing.

  24. For those wondering about polling now on a Republic.

    I am sure all the pollsters are going to be asking again after today.

  25. I suppose the thing about becoming a republic and having a president replacing the GG is do we want a figurehead or a player in the game?

    Last time we had a figurehead who wanted to be a player in the game it ended in tears.

    Imagine now if we had a popularly elected president with delusions of grandeur. We certainly have a diabolical government we would be better off without.

    And while Labor has always said since 1975 it would never use Senate numbers to block supply, ambition can do strange things to people.

    There may need to be some constitutional protections to avoid the problem but good luck with that.

  26. Michael Lavarch just highlighted Labor’s role in ending Tasmania’s appalling laws jailing LGBT people for having sex.

    Great work. Passing legislation that allowed Rodney Croome and Nick Toonen to take their case to the High Court to override the Tasmanian laws.

  27. The chances are that a directly-elected H-o-S would have to be sponsored by a Party, they being the only organs with the ability to mount national campaigns for any candidate. So the H-o-S would become a voice for the programs of their party. Since it’s possible that the majority in the House and the H-o-S would come from different parties, the Constitution would have to be amended to provide for the resolution of conflicts between the House and the other branches of the Parliament. This would not be difficult. As long as the House clearly has better tenure than the Senate and the H-o-S, and as long as disputes wth respect to Supply can be resolved, there would be no Constitutional breakdown.

    This would democratise the Constitution once and for all.

  28. No one will be surprised to know that A Cuurent Affair led with this story.
    They interviewed Vic Federal Liberal MP Jason Wood, ( and not sure if I heard correctly) a former policeman.
    He said it was Daniel Andrews fault that we have this crisis. And mind you this whole brouhaha is basically the result of a home used as a BnB in the western suburbs being trashed, and when police called, rocks thrown etc.

    John Setka
    John Setka
    @CFMEUJohnSetka
    ·
    4h
    So our PM who was fined last week for breaking the law contradicts Victoria Police over lawless ‘gangs’ & says Opposition leader who dines with the Mafia should be next Vic Premier?
    #springst
    #auspol

  29. guytaur @ #3077 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:34 pm

    Barney

    Dick Smith could run for Parliament. He could get elected to head of a major party and become PM.

    Directly elected makes that harder than being appointed under the minimalist model of which it was the conjecture that Dick Smith would run.

    Are you in California?

    Direct election basically guarantees the HoS would be a major Party candidate or someone of significant individual wealth.

  30. guytaur,

    If the republic issue is included in upcoming polling it would be interesting to see results from a question asking respondents where they rate the issue as a matter of importance.

    I would be surprised if the republic rated in the top five or even top ten of issues with which Australians were concerned.

    Cost of living, power prices, wage stagnation etc etc would ramp over the top of the republic as matters of concern.

    Cheers.

  31. Kim Beazley confirms when he was ambassador while no concrete evidence like we got with Downer.

    There was a “whiff of Russians” around campaigning

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