Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research closes its account for the year by recording a slight improvement in the Coalition’s position, and a generally more positive outlook than in recent years.

The final Essential Research result for 2017 (actually released yesterday, but who’s keeping score at this time of year) has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, reducing the Labor lead to 53-47. They’re also up two on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

Essential closes the year with a particularly interesting series of supplementary findings, one of which is that only 29% approve of tax cuts to medium and large businesses, with 54% opposed. On political donations, overwhelming support is recorded for immediate disclosure of donations (84% versus 6%) and politicians’ meetings with companies donors and unions (82% versus 5%), very strong support for a ban on foreign donations (67% to 16%), capping donations at $5000 (59% to 20%) and banning donations from companies and unions (58% to 22%), but opposition to banning donations altogether and replacing them with public funding (30% to 50%).

Another series of generalised questions on how things have been going over the past year suggest Australians are feeling a good deal more positive than they have at any time since this annual series began in 2013. In particular, there are greatly improved perceptions on the state of the economy; neutral but improved ones on respondents’ personal financial situations; greatly improved, but still somewhat negative ones on how “the average Australian” has fared; and a view on “Australian politics in general” that remains highly negative, but is still greatly improved. Included for the first time is a question on “the planet”, with 20% consider to have had a good year versus 42% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,526 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. ajm,
    Christmas can be one of the happiest, but also one of the saddest times of year. Keep on keeping on, that’s what my late husband said to me and the boys when he knew his battle with cancer was likely lost. Not that I portend that for your friends, I don’t, however what you need to do is make every day you live on seem like it will be the first of many more, but also make your friends or relatives, whoever they may be, see that you are still capable of being joyous. It will mean a lot to them. Trust me. 🙂

  3. C@t

    I have had a number of life threatening medical conditions myself (no current ones thankfully) so I can empathise with people in that situation, which helps a bit I think – both for them and for me!

  5. Happy festivus to one and all bludgers. Much gratitude to William (and I will get to sending $ soon) and to BK and his helpers and Phoenix Red for the morning roundups.
    May 2018 see the defeat of Turnbull and Trump toot sweet.

  7. lizzie @ #2101 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 7:29 pm

    zoomster

    I shall be home all day tomorrow and will pop in to catch any conversation going. I may even post a link or two!

    I hope you are not going to be on your own all day and if you are I will keep you in my thoughts and try to drop you an occasional message.
    I will be having lunch with my son and his family including my 3 granddaughters.

  9. The Silver Bodgie @ #2103 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 7:32 pm

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

    You are channeling Metal Machine Music!

  10. lizzie:

    I’ll be needing sanity and serenity from murderous thoughts of bonking Miss Food Affliction over the head with a turkey, so will look out for your comments if I get time to check in tomoz.

  16. This is a description of Portugal’s decriminalization of illicit drugs. The article is ‘What Can We Learn From the Portuguese Decriminalization of Illicit Drugs’, British Journal of Criminology (2010) 50(6) 999-1022.

    Prior to the 2001 reform, drug possession, acquisition and cultivation when for per
    sonal use were criminal offences punishable with up to 1 year’s imprisonment (Decreto
    Lei no.° 15/93, de 22 de janeiro 1993). 3 But with the introduction of Law 30/2000, drug
    possession and acquisition became a public order or administrative offence (Lei n.° 30/
    2000, de 29 de novembro 2000). The new offences are sanctioned through specially
    devised Commissions for the Dissuasion of Drug Addiction (CDTs).
    The CDTs are regional panels made up of three people, including lawyers, social work
    ers and medical professionals. Alleged offenders are referred by the police to the CDTs,
    who then discuss with the offender the motivations for and circumstances surrounding
    their offence and are able to provide a range of sanctions, including community service,
    fines, suspensions on professional licenses and bans on attending designated places.
    However, their primary aim is to dissuade drug use and to encourage dependent drug
    users into treatment. Towards this end, they determine whether individuals are depen
    dent or not. For dependent users, they can recommend that a person enters a treatment
    or education programme instead of receiving a sanction. For non-dependent users, they
    can order a provisional suspension of proceedings, attendance at a police station, psy
    chological or educational service, or impose a fine. The panel members of the CDTs are
    supported by staff employed by the Instituto da Droga e da Toxicodependência (IDT,
    the Institute for Drugs and Drug Addiction), the central government agency on drugs.
    The new law applies to use/possession of all illicit drugs – including cannabis, heroin
    and cocaine – but it is restricted to use/possession of up to ten days’ worth of a drug.
    This amounts in practice to 0.1 g heroin, 0.1 g ecstasy, 0.1 g amphetamines, 0.2 g cocaine
    or 2.5 g cannabis (Decreto-Lei n.° 15/93, de 22 de janeiro 1993; Portaria n.° 94/96, de 26
    de Março 1996). Individuals found with more than this quantity will be charged and
    referred to the courts, where they may face charges for trafficking or trafficking/con
    sumption (where the offender is found in possession of more than the consumer
    amount, but deemed to have obtained plants, substances or preparations for personal
    use only)

  17. Bemused

    Thank you for your thoughts. Very kind. My son’s visiting so I won’t be quite alone all day. I get up very early though. ☺

  19. Nicholas @ #2115 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 7:54 pm

    This is a description of Portugal’s decriminalization of illicit drugs. The article is ‘What Can We Learn From the Portuguese Decriminalization of Illicit Drugs’, British Journal of Criminology (2010) 50(6) 999-1022.

    Prior to the 2001 reform, drug possession, acquisition and cultivation when for per
    sonal use were criminal offences punishable with up to 1 year’s imprisonment (Decreto
    Lei no.° 15/93, de 22 de janeiro 1993). 3 But with the introduction of Law 30/2000, drug
    possession and acquisition became a public order or administrative offence (Lei n.° 30/
    2000, de 29 de novembro 2000). The new offences are sanctioned through specially
    devised Commissions for the Dissuasion of Drug Addiction (CDTs).
    The CDTs are regional panels made up of three people, including lawyers, social work
    ers and medical professionals. Alleged offenders are referred by the police to the CDTs,
    who then discuss with the offender the motivations for and circumstances surrounding
    their offence and are able to provide a range of sanctions, including community service,
    fines, suspensions on professional licenses and bans on attending designated places.
    However, their primary aim is to dissuade drug use and to encourage dependent drug
    users into treatment. Towards this end, they determine whether individuals are depen
    dent or not. For dependent users, they can recommend that a person enters a treatment
    or education programme instead of receiving a sanction. For non-dependent users, they
    can order a provisional suspension of proceedings, attendance at a police station, psy
    chological or educational service, or impose a fine. The panel members of the CDTs are
    supported by staff employed by the Instituto da Droga e da Toxicodependência (IDT,
    the Institute for Drugs and Drug Addiction), the central government agency on drugs.
    The new law applies to use/possession of all illicit drugs – including cannabis, heroin
    and cocaine – but it is restricted to use/possession of up to ten days’ worth of a drug.
    This amounts in practice to 0.1 g heroin, 0.1 g ecstasy, 0.1 g amphetamines, 0.2 g cocaine
    or 2.5 g cannabis (Decreto-Lei n.° 15/93, de 22 de janeiro 1993; Portaria n.° 94/96, de 26
    de Março 1996). Individuals found with more than this quantity will be charged and
    referred to the courts, where they may face charges for trafficking or trafficking/con
    sumption (where the offender is found in possession of more than the consumer
    amount, but deemed to have obtained plants, substances or preparations for personal
    use only)

    Interesting paragraph style there Nicky, but not quite what people meant when advising you to learn about paragraphs.

    The Preview function may assist you in future.

  23. Lizzie @ #2116 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 7:58 pm

    Bemused

    Thank you for your thoughts. Very kind. My son’s visiting so I won’t be quite alone all day. I get up very early though. ☺

    I am so glad to hear about your son visiting.
    I will be preoccupied much of the day with the two youngest granddaughters (7 & 3), and their parents of course, but when I get a break I will check in on my phone and respond as appropriate.
    Have a great Christmas.

  25. After a Xmas eve lunch with family in the aptly named Constitution Hill, Sydney (formerly known as North Toongabbie), 39 degrees, 65% humidity, ducked over to the cool breezes (25 degrees) on the beach at Dee Why and the to the lookout at Long Reef peninsula.

    Whta better place could there be? This shot looking south over Tony Abbott’s electorate…

  28. As I have figured out how to take photos on my phone and send them places, I might take one of my neck of the woods tomorrow for you all as a Xmas pressie. 🙂

  32. Greensborough Growler,
    Merry Christmas to you and yours. You are the angel on top of the tree. In the shape of a puppy, who is capable of lighting up people’s lives at this time of year from afar. 🙂

  36. Confessions @ #2085 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 3:15 pm

    victoria:

    If it gets too much I might steal my friend’s Winnebago and take off to parts unknown lol!

    I suggest we meet tomorrow just before lunchtime in Walpole, (for other bludgers halfway between Manjimup where I am and where I’ve surmised Confessions is), which is very nice little town, for the purposes of avoiding relatives and drinking ourselves into incoherence. My brother in law will be coming and we’ll supply more marron and yabbies than you will be able to eat.

  37. Merry Christmas to one and all (even the bad guys)

    Many thanks to William for the blog and BK (and his apprentices when called) for the dawn goodies. Love the cartoons.

    Keep safe everyone.

  38. One year, for a surprise Xmas present, one of my oldest and dearest friends, turned up on our doorstep from Perth and points north, on Xmas morning, with 3 freshly-caught Abrolhos Island Crayfish for our present! I abandoned all my other plans and made a Lobster Risotto for Xmas lunch. Maybe that sounds sacreligious, and you might think I should have just cooked them as they were but at that stage it was hard getting the boys to eat food ‘au natural’, so to speak. Nevertheless, it was delicious!

  41. Before I forget to do it…
    A Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all, including my sparring partners such as zoomster and GG, and even our trolls like Rex who do add something to PB.
    And special thanks to William for running the blog.

  42. Merry Christmas everyone. If i havent managed to piss you off with my comments/rants yet dont worry there is always next year! 🙂

  46. bemused @ #2020 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 1:14 pm

    What is an e-ink display? What technology does it use?

    Wikipedia explains it better than I could. But “e-ink” is the technology. Internally I think it uses tiny balls filled with bits of pigment that can jump around when different electric charges are applied to the balls.

    It doesn’t rely upon a backlight for contrast/visibility, so is a bit easier on the eyes for extended reading sessions and can’t be overpowered by ambient light sources. And it only consumes power when changing what’s on the screen, which is why e-readers can go for weeks (or months) on a single charge.

  48. a r @ #2145 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 10:18 pm

    bemused @ #2020 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 1:14 pm

    What is an e-ink display? What technology does it use?

    Wikipedia explains it better than I could. But “e-ink” is the technology. Internally I think it uses tiny balls filled with bits of pigment that can jump around when different electric charges are applied to the balls.

    It doesn’t rely upon a backlight for contrast/visibility, so is a bit easier on the eyes for extended reading sessions and can’t be overpowered by ambient light sources. And it only consumes power when changing what’s on the screen, which is why e-readers can go for weeks (or months) on a single charge.

    Yes, I was earlier referred to the Wikipedia article.
    Seems a good technology for the purpose.

  49. A very merry Christmas from this long-time lurker and occasional poster and a mighty big thanks to BK for my daily fix .
    Cheers, everyone

  50. Many thanks to William and all the bludgers. 🙂

    Except the bots…….that is to much like personifying the fridge. 🙁

    Stay safe all, and have a good Xmas.

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