Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research closes its account for the year by recording a slight improvement in the Coalition’s position, and a generally more positive outlook than in recent years.

The final Essential Research result for 2017 (actually released yesterday, but who’s keeping score at this time of year) has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, reducing the Labor lead to 53-47. They’re also up two on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

Essential closes the year with a particularly interesting series of supplementary findings, one of which is that only 29% approve of tax cuts to medium and large businesses, with 54% opposed. On political donations, overwhelming support is recorded for immediate disclosure of donations (84% versus 6%) and politicians’ meetings with companies donors and unions (82% versus 5%), very strong support for a ban on foreign donations (67% to 16%), capping donations at $5000 (59% to 20%) and banning donations from companies and unions (58% to 22%), but opposition to banning donations altogether and replacing them with public funding (30% to 50%).

Another series of generalised questions on how things have been going over the past year suggest Australians are feeling a good deal more positive than they have at any time since this annual series began in 2013. In particular, there are greatly improved perceptions on the state of the economy; neutral but improved ones on respondents’ personal financial situations; greatly improved, but still somewhat negative ones on how “the average Australian” has fared; and a view on “Australian politics in general” that remains highly negative, but is still greatly improved. Included for the first time is a question on “the planet”, with 20% consider to have had a good year versus 42% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,526 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Happy Christmas to all of the Bludgertariat. You all make my life so much richer.

    A very big thanks to our godly overlord, William: there is nothing else like this site anywhere in the world. Thanks so much for putting up with us, and maintaining this community.

    And another very big thanks to BK for my daily news round-up. I would never have enough time to be on top of the news for work and social purposes without this.

    And a big thanks to Lizzie for always making sure the news round-up happens when BK cannot do it.

    Here is one of my favourite Christmas carols (thought I would take a break from John Lennon’s “Merry Xmas 1974” for this year): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqd60PuFcCU

  4. Actually, regarding the version of Adeste Fideles that I posted, I was going to post an Andrea Bocelli version, but was very unhappy with the advert for Romper Stomper that appeared before it played. I think this was just a random thing, but did not want to in anyway spoil the vibe for tonight.

  7. Season’s Greetings to all PBers. Been lurking for about eight years and feel I know many of you well enough to presume to wish you all well. This blog has been my early morning “go to” for all that time. Thank you all for your insights, ideas, arguments and challenges and very many thanks to William for giving us this forum – and yes, I have made a contribution to its existence and will continue to do so in 2018.

    Currently lurking in snowy downtown Bavaria for a couple of weeks with my overseas child and family before returning to the heat of Bennelong. Good King Wensceslas would have to work overtime here at the moment .

  8. Merry Xmas all and may next year bring all you wish for.

    Thanks William for giving us a place to talk, comment and bitch as we will.

    Appreciate all the work and insight on polling and politics that you present.

  11. That’s beautiful Douglas and Milko.

    Re the songs I posted. Ones a bit of an indulgence but I love the lyrics.
    And the late Greg Lake. What a voice. And again the lyrics. Although a contrast to the Tull song. I didn’t pay much attention when the song first came out but when I did it made me more impressed. I think as I’ve gotten older I can better relate.

    Merry Christmas.

  12. Yay! All the presents are finally wrapped and under the tree!
    Time to go to bed before Santa arrives.
    Glad tidings to all. See you tomorrow as I come back to PB for interludes of sanity and madness, away from all the other stuff…which is basically interludes of sanity and madness. 😉

  15. Jesus Shellbell, first a blow up nativity scene, now a bean bag that needs to be stuffed?

    I do admire your willingness to go the hard yards. 😀

  17. The religious leaders are all trying to outdo each other!

    In what way are you rapidly changing?

    The Archbishop of Melbourne Dennis Hart had a similarly dark Christmas message.

    “We live in a world and a church that is rapidly changing,” he said in a video. “Every morning we seem to wake up to more bad global news of hurricanes, floods, drought, fires and even the frightening possibility of the use of nuclear weapons. The gloom of the world is but a shadow. Behind it, but within our reach, is joy.”

    This one’s channelling Trump!

    Meanwhile the Anglican Dean of Hobart, Richard Humphrey, gave a nod to Donald Trump in a politically-themed Christmas video in which he wore a red Make Christmas Great Again cap, a play on Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan.

    He told the ABC that people needed to turn away from fake news and towards “the really good news of Christmas”.

    And this one is mercifully short and so is my answer, “NO”!!!

    Dr Glenn Davies, the Anglican Archbishop of Sydney, turned to Twitter to deliver his Christmas message this year.

    “In short – a baby born in a shed saves the world #canyoubelieveit,” his message said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/24/same-sex-marriage-and-euthanasia-mean-annus-horribilis-catholic-bishop

  19. Barney in Go Dau @ #2244 Sunday, December 24th, 2017 – 11:18 pm

    The religious leaders are all trying to outdo each other!

    Dr Glenn Davies, the Anglican Archbishop of Sydney, turned to Twitter to deliver his Christmas message this year.

    “In short – a baby born in a shed saves the world #canyoubelieveit,” his message said.

    Fake news! He was actually talking Star Wars spoilers.

  21. GG 8.02
    yes and no. But not just yet!
    ________________________

    Whilst decoding Base 64 is relatively easy, your response is too cryptic for me…am i missing the bleeding obvious or have I failed to see a previous post that might illuminate?

    To all the regular contributors and fellow cowardly lurkers, a merry Jesus birthday to all and thank you William for this remarkable platform.

  22. To bludgers one and all, Happy Christmas. I hope you all enjoy yourselves with your families and friends and that 2018 treats us well.

    And thanks to William and his merry-posters, especially BK and lizzie for curating the daily news.

  24. Good morning early risers and insomniacs.
    A calm morning with a blackbird singing softly.

    We are so lucky to have a friendly PB community moderated by William.
    Ple-e-ase drive carefully today. There has already been a triple fatality to the west of Melbourne, caused by speed.

  25. Good morning Lizzie
    and early risers and Poll Bludgers in general.

    Recent talk of birds and magpies in general left me wondering whether my local magpies had put a ban on me.
    But no, the magpies have come back to Capistrano the Newcastle University area to my great delight.

    Did I write “Happy Christmas” – No.

    Happy Christmas all. ☮ 🕊 🎄🎅

    I am looking forward to watching “Bad Santa” later this morning. Yes, it’s rude, but funny.😍 😵

  27. KayJay

    Happy Christmas to you and brown bear.
    Being, as you know, interested in language, I notice that most bludgers are saying “Merry Christmas”. Are we old-fashioned now? 🙂

  29. Lizzie.

    To me, the word “merry” implies more active enjoyment, while “happy” has a rather passive flavour about it. That’s why I use “merry”.

    No idea if this has much linguistic basis, but it works for me!

  30. lizzie @ #2176 Monday, December 25th, 2017 – 6:17 am

    KayJay

    Happy Christmas to you and brown bear.
    Being, as you know, interested in language, I notice that most bludgers are saying “Merry Christmas”. Are we old-fashioned now? 🙂

    Lizzie, I wrote “Happy Christmas” in an almost “automatic writing” manner.

    You are, as I already knew, very observant.

    Brown Bear is keeping “Mum” , “Shtum” and almost “Dumb” about the matter.

    I will test my daughter and her husband when they visit later.

    The test? Fill in this sentence – “………………….Christmas”. 😲

    Au revoir. I must use my stock of french words today to amaze and delight – myself, perhaps.

  31. WOW – Santa has been to Gippsland – grand kids are roaring around impatiently waiting for the rest of the family to arrive so they can open their presents ….

    To all on PB – Hope you have the most wonderful day with your family and friends !!!!!

  32. Good morning Dawn Patrollers and very merry Christmas! It’s going to be a monster day here will all members of all direct generations together. This meagre offering is all I could rake o=up.

    Urban Wronski has a shot at Dictator Dutton.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/12/24/dictator-dutton-dreaming-of-a-right-christmas/
    The management of this business would NEVER have known about this of course! Google.
    /news/south-australia/drivers-of-a-convoy-of-four-victorian-trucks-test-positive-to-meth-and-have-bdoubles-defected/news-story/ddb5dade4d4e28a550a4f61ab09fd37e
    Trump just can’t help himself!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-begins-christmas-holiday-with-tweets-on-fbi-and-media-20171224-h09wmt.html
    From Matthew Knott. “Almost one year in to Trump’s presidency, a network of grassroots opposition groups have been building up their firepower. But can the resistance make a real difference?”
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/using-tea-party-tactics-leftwing-groups-attempt-to-derail-donald-trumps-agenda-20171217-h069ne.html
    A self-centred spit from Sydney’s archbishop in his Christmas address.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/24/same-sex-marriage-and-euthanasia-mean-annus-horribilis-catholic-bishop

  34. Goodwill to all men?
    It’s hard to have goodwill towards Joh and his police state. (The Uber Tuber seems to have inherited the same attitude. Everyone is guilty of something.)

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 9h9 hours ago

    Recall some young people in Joh’s Queensland being busted by the drug squad. “But we don’t take drugs”, they told the officers.
    Tell it to the magistrate.
    They were escorted up their driveway where they could see rows of freshly planted dope plants on each side of the driveway.

  36. Sen. Jeff Flake Issues A Stunning Warning That The Republican Party Is Dying Under Trump

    Sen. Flake (R-AZ) said that the crowds that turn out for Republicans are the spasms of dying party and that the anger of older white men can only carry the GOP so far. He added that voters have figured out that the Republican Party stands for nothing else.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/24/sen-jeff-flake-issues-stunning-warning-republican-party-dying-trump.html

  37. Sure enough, the reindeer ate the carrots and Santa ate the biscuits.

    Not only that but he forgot to be put the chimney screen back properly when he climbed out.

    I suspect he is a Bludger.

    Merry Christmas to you all.

  39. ‘The documents were hung by the shredder with care’: Terror analyst pens awesome Christmas classic re-write

    Geopolitical terror analyst Chris Sampson celebrated Christmas Eve with a moving tribute to the Trump administration, set to the Clement Clarke Moore poem, “A visit from St. Nicolas” which is also know by it’s first line, “Twas the night before Christmas.”

    Twas the night before Christmas, when through the White House
    Not a Kushner was resting, not even his spouse;
    The documents were hung by the shredder with care,
    In fears that Bob Mueller soon would be there;

    Many more verses : https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/the-documents-were-hung-by-the-shredder-with-care-terror-analyst-pens-awesome-christmas-classic-re-write/

  41. We thank you BK ☮ for your work during the year and trust that you, your family and very wide array of friends have a happy, merry Christmas.

    In particular from your Dawn Patrol the language from the “Urban Wronski” article , as has been elsewhere noted, is exquisite.
    Whereas I, and, I assume, the boys and girls at the local boozer, simply call the effwits plundering the country “a pack of bastards” the following goes into wonderful flowing description and is well worth a read for the joy in recognition of what is portrayed.

    Urban Wronski has a shot at Dictator Dutton. 😈
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/12/24/dictator-dutton-dreaming-of-a-right-christmas/

  44. It’s traditional in my family to wish people a “*ER*Y C*RIS*MA*” — our childhood Christmas banner got a bit wrecked…

    After picking a slightly inebriated son from the pub after midnight (“I told at least twenty people that I loved them….it’s true, I do.”) I waited up for another half hour to pack their stockings (they’re 21 and 23, but get very upset at the idea that Santa won’t come..). Then I spent another half hour frantically looking for one of the stocking fillers, which I fortunately saw as soon as I woke up this morning.

    Alas, I could not find any chocolate coins. Last year’s pre-Christmas conversation went something like this —

    ME: I won’t buy any chocolate coins this year.
    SON: You have to, it’s tradition.
    ME: But you never eat them anyway.
    SON: That’s the tradition.

    — so failure rests heavily upon me.

  45. This is the “member for Cubbie Station” speaking.

    Christine Bennett‏ @c_bennett95 · 23h23 hours ago
    Christine Bennett Retweeted Jeremy Buckingham

    Maranoa MP and Federal Agriculture Minister David Littleproud:

    “I wouldn’t be a Federal MP if it wasn’t for the Bjelke-Petersen family and my father wouldn’t have been in state politics if it wasn’t for the Bjelke-Petersens – I owe them a lot,” Mr Littleproud said.

  47. My dear wife many years ago, occasionally would get a card from a friend who she met while training with “Gyp” the beautiful golden Labrador guide dog.

    One Christmas the card, in braille, read “Fappy new wear”. Bill got the dots a little wonky. Bill was one of the good guys and rang Marie from time to time. :tears emoji:

  49. HRH Terry Australis‏ @AustralisTerry · 13m13 minutes ago

    Seriously? Can’t verify. Rumours at the pub last night that Gina has bought some blocks out next to Barneys Gwabegar blocks. #auspol #CSG

  50. I posted my best wishes to everyone yesterday but a special Hi this Christmas morning to Lizzie who deputises for the great BK whenever he is indisposed. Your efforts and cheery presence are always appreciated Lizzie. Have a great day with your son.

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