Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. Aqualung @ #537 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 5:24 pm

    JM, Rory had a varied career. I can remember him in JC Superstar at the Capitol.

    Ah! I remember that performance. I still listen to the soundtrack – easily the best version of that musical ever performed. And that’s not just my view – the cast recording from this production won the Aria for Highest Selling Album and was nominated for Best Original Soundtrack/Cast/Show Album. Also, when I tried to track down a CD version of it (there is none even now, only of the later production), I corresponded with people overseas who had collected many versions of this soundtrack, and the original Australian version was their stand-out favorite.

    Vale, Rory!

  2. Ides of March says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 5:32 pm
    Another factor to consider

    GetUp! was not out and about today.

    Not surprising, as the parties have been campaigning very heavily. Have the unions been prominent?

  3. It’s very difficult to pick Wayne from any other 15 year old Young Libs…

    And let’s be real… anything beyond the standard 5% is bad for the Govt. Why the “win is a win” line doesn’t work is that Turnbull is on a deadline, I am 100% certain the election will be in 2018. Turnbull does not have Howard’s political skill to pull himself out of a tailspin.

    A loss is obviously cataclysmic (expect an early House election if it happens, btw) but winning in spite of a near 8% swing is a body blow.

  4. “No it wouldnt, an ALP leadership change to anyone would destroy any chance of ALP winning, it would remind people of the leadership troubles from the past (which LNP are now experiencing), and it could only happen if the leadership change rules where thrown out. Which would destroy hope of long term reform within the party.”

    Well said Bug1.

    The last Labor leader that contested elections back to back was Kim Beazley in 2001. Since then Labor have not had the same leader contest two elections consecutively. I’m glad some of the people who write comments on here are not Labor strategists.

  5. Briefly

    I understand that GetUp! asked its members if they should campaign or not. I imagine they said no given nothing from GetUp! on the web.

    Unions would be of course. Wherever Labor is they are. (Idont speak for the Unions though).

  6. Rory was Peter according to the soundtrack blurb. I couldn’t remember but knew he was in it.
    Rory sang the Aunty Jack song. Graeme Bond was Aunty Jack. Rory was Thin Arthur.
    Gary MacDonald was also in the show.

  7. Interesting comment:

    Kevin Cheung @ScientificNinja
    1d
    As a #Bennelong voter who identifies as Chinese, I’m a little tired of hearing white people tell me there’s no anti-Chinese sentiment. There is, and I’m feeling it. It’s a feeling I haven’t felt since Pauline Hanson’s maiden speech. #ausvotes

  8. ajm

    Kevin Cheung must be a young’un. Else he would have remembered Howard and his feeling “uncomfortable” about “Asian immigration” and the likes of Jack van Tongeren’s Australian Nationalist Movement squawking about the “Asian Invasion”. Then of course there was the first round of BOATS ! fear mongering. The “Asiatic hordes sweeping down from the north” meme of White Australia days had a bit of a revival.

  9. Player One I couldn’t agree more re the Australian Original Cast Album of Superstar. Far and away the best version. And even though Marcia Hynes was good I felt Michele Fawdon brought a certain vulnerability to that role.
    I bought the English version as well as it was the full show. It was ponderous in comparison. But it was the full show.
    My oz album got a workout and I ended up making a cassette for the car that was the oz version padded out with the missing bits from the English version.
    The movie was a poor third.

  10. poroti @ #582 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    ajm

    Kevin Cheung must be a young’un. Else he would have remembered Howard and his feeling “uncomfortable” about “Asian immigration” and the likes of Jack van Tongeren’s Australian Nationalist Movement squawking about the “Asian Invasion”. Then of course there was the first round of BOATS ! fear mongering. The “Asiatic hordes sweeping down from the north” meme of White Australia days had a bit of a revival.

    Her first maiden speech was in 1996. Not sure if that’s the one he is talking about but I remember that’s when she was really getting stuck in to the Asian community.

  11. Mitch Marsh said last week he had despaired when he read what people said about him on social media.

    Did he read PB?

    The cricket experts here dissed Shaun and he got a century in Adelaife. Now Mitch has one.

    Any humble pie out there?

    Maybe selectors know something after all.

  12. Matt Thistlethwaite on Sky drearily conceded defeat almost immediately he was introduced. Is he the best media spokesperson Labor can provide ?

  13. Rex Douglas

    It is the race for “underdogdom” .Take Chrissy Pyne and his confidence ( Please do)………..

    “He says “there certainly wasn’t a mood for kicking out John Alexander” at the booths he visited earlier today, but “that’s not to say it might not still happen”.

    Mr Pyne warns the result might not be known tonight”

  14. According to the commentary on abc24, there has been a huge swell in pre-poll and postal votes (or even non-voters in the heat – so we may not know the result until tomorrow if it’s close).

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