Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 2h2 hours ago

    Don’t believe his lies. @TurnbullMalcolm is running around #Bennelong today claiming credit for jobs growth. 60% of Australian jobs growth came from the work of the Victorian Labor government. #auspol

  2. BK, just read the article you pointed to.

    What does this statement mean?

    “The Holy See remains close to the Catholic Church in Australia — lay faithful, religious and clergy — as it listens and accompanies victims and survivors in an effort to bring healing and justice.”

  3. Julia Gillard‏Verified account @JuliaGillard
    On this historic day, my personal thanks go to the Royal Commissioners and all who supported their work. Our nation is indebted to you and to the survivors who fought so hard for justice and a safer future for our children. JG

    She’s all class isn’t she?

  4. Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus · 10m10 minutes ago

    The average swing in a by-election is 5%. Most of Bennelong is Liberal heartland, new boundaries since 2007, primary over 50%. Every vote beyond 5% is a huge slap in the face to the weak, union-bashing, trickle-down Turnbull Government #BennelongVotes #Bennelong #auspol

  5. Very Helpful Ninja Pirate Monkey Santa‏Verified account @jonkudelka · 31m31 minutes ago

    Look from a cartoonist’s point of view, Keneally must win Bennelong. I am sorry to Mr Alexander who seems perfectly nice, but it is the only sensible plan for jobs and growth in satire.

  6. Gavin Newsom
    17 mins ·
    Yesterday was the 5th anniversary of the Sandy Hook shooting, which passed without a single acknowledgement by our President. Instead, he decided to host NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre at the White House for his Christmas party (seen here).

    So Trump. Always first to miss an opportunity to act like a statesman and try unifying the country instead of dividing it.

  7. I was having a bit of browse on YouTube and played this for fun. Imagine my shock when I was reading the comments and found that Rory O’Donoghue had died on the 13th. I don’t recall seeing it mentioned here or even on the news. RIP…Farewell Thin Arthur

    https://youtu.be/xs9ma5oHVbE

    😔

  8. Very slow and quiet here at Meadowbank Tafe.

    Seems like decent support for KK, but hard to tell fir sure due to low flow rate.

    No hostility towards the Labor brand. We have by far the larger army here today too. Almost everyone taking Labor material.

  9. Bernardi’s candidate, unfortunately, is preferencing Alexander above Kenealey instead of leaving preferences open as some candidates have done. That may be the difference.

  10. “No hostility towards the Labor brand.”

    Have fun BB. Last state election i was on a quiet booth. Was a strange experience though as the hostility towards the Libs over the PHON deal was right up front and out there for a lot of voters.

    doGs, but i hope KK and crew can take this on out. 🙂

  11. lizzie says:
    Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus · 10m10 minutes ago

    ” The average swing in a by-election is 5%. Most of Bennelong is Liberal heartland, new boundaries
    since 2007, primary over 50%. Every vote beyond 5% is a huge slap in the face to the weak, union-
    bashing, trickle-down Turnbull Government #BennelongVotes #Bennelong #auspol”

    This is complete rubbish.
    #Ryde has never been a Liberal heartland, in fact its usually Labor leaning. The Eastwood & Epping areas did used to be Liberal heartland, but this has weakened considerably in the last two decades.

    #The existing Bennelong electorate has only been in place since the abolition of Dundas in 1993, when Top Ryde and West Ryde were included for the first time so the fact that its only been won once by the ALP dosent mean that much.

    #A 5% swing might? be the average for all by-elections, but not when a government is polling as poorly as this one.

    #The Liberal vote would appear to be inflated in the last two elections.

    Partially offsetting the points above:
    #The circumstances of this by-election might generate sympathy for the sitting member

    #Sitting members don’t usually contest by-elections and Alexander would appear to be popular.

  12. Forgot to mention, I ran into Fiona Nash here today, doing humble HTV duty. Dressed in jeans and T-shirt, ño heels, no attitude.

    Had pleasant conversation. She has a nice smile and an easy manner. Not at all like the screaming banshee you see in the Senate telecasts.

    To me, she seemed very relaxed about getting booted. I asked her if she had a new job yet. Nope, just relaxing for a while, she told me.

    We’re all Human after all.

  13. Everyone’s pretty pally. A couple of snooty noses pointing skywards, but, by far, mostly all good.

    Booth bots helping each other out across party lines, as usual at these times.

    As William puts it… “The miracle of Australian democracy” in action today.

  14. Meadowbank 2016/…

    HOWISON, Lyndal Labor 396 32.54 -0.88
    AUGUST, John Peter Pirate Party Australia 23 1.89 +1.89
    ALICK, Justin The Greens 118 9.70 +0.77
    WORSLEY, Julie Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 83 6.82 +3.61
    GORDON, Christopher The Arts Party 12 0.99 +0.99
    ALEXANDER, John Liberal 519 42.65 -6.80
    MULCARE, Martin Independent 66 5.42 +5.42

  15. Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 4h4 hours ago

    So interesting to hear Libs on the hustings parrot the usual lines ie Trump doing a great job (from Abetz’s Chief of Staff), Stop the Boats, tax cuts are good for employment. Then when I asked what media they consume – ‘Fox & Sky’ #auspol

  16. BB

    I have a lot of respect for Fiona Nash even though we believe in different things. She actually seems rather nice and can be humble at times. The conservative side needs more people like Nash and less like Cash.

    Fess

    Michael McCormack (NAT) and I think even Barnaby have been spotted in Bennelong today.

  17. Hola Bludgers from my couch! I never made it to the by-election because I was struck down overnight with one of my semi-regular allergic reactions to something I ate yesterday and so got up this morning only to be dizzy, nauseous and tired. I’ve only just woken.

    I hope you feel better soon. And thank you for helping me. As you can see, I’m getting the hang of it.

  18. Bushfire. Bill says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 4:52 pm
    Forgot to mention, I ran into Fiona Nash here today, doing humble HTV duty. Dressed in jeans and T-shirt, ño heels, no attitude.

    ….which suggests the Liberals are very short of volunteers…

  19. “Booth bots helping each other out across party lines, as usual at these times.”

    Lol! Have most often had that as an experience. Handy when you need to bunk off for a pee. 🙂

    Once or twice snooty gits, but mostly good people in their own way.

    Watching the cricket. Smith is in incredible form (172) and Marsh (76) doing well. Poms weary but not giving up.

    Smith cracking 200 will be taken as omen and entrails reading for Bennerlong!!! 🙂

  20. JM, Rory had a varied career. I can remember him in JC Superstar at the Capitol.

    For the weather buffs. 33 in the Chifley division. It did hit 36 earlier.

  21. Best of luck to all of those waiting out the decision in Bennelong tonight.

    Strikes me as a bit like the Melbourne Cup. So many factors in play and so much applied in the way of resources that the outcome becomes very unpredictable – a small variation in any of the factors operating behind the scenes could lead to a blowout in any direction or a hairline result.

    FWIW I think the ethnic communities won’t be much influenced by international relations considerations but rather by which party they see as providing a better and more stable future for their communities. I have a sneaking hope that the general chaos of the RW parties at the moment will be a turn-off for them. Asian societies I think tend to view things on longer time scales than most from European societies. However, I may be completely wrong.

    As usual, we will be able to predict the result perfectly in retrospect,

    Will be watching with fingers crossed and twitter and PB loaded.

  22. Interesting that in the ABC interview with Cory the Conservative, he made special mention of how crap the NBN is too.

    Also the gLibs have put all their eggs in the KK is a simulacrum of Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi basket.

    It hasn’t worked up till now.

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