The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.
For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.
Should KKeneally not win the seat on Saturday, would she indeed be interested in a senate spot?
Victoria
Keneally could run again in Bennelong. By election time people will know what Alexander has done if he wins.
Guytaur
Yes she could. We shall see how this weekend plays out
MRowlandMP: If you have a second-rate product – you may as well discount it. #NBN #auspol pic.twitter.com/p2MHkgIUEB
Coorey makes the good point that Bennelong is vital to Turnbull because, if he loses, the cross-benchers can refer libs to the High Court. Coorey then gives the game away when he says “There could be a rash of by-elections”. Really Phil? You mean Malcolm is acting like a generalissmo?
Re Ghost Who Votes @8:46AM: there is no One Nation Candidate in Bennelong, but there is an Australian Liberty Alliance candidate, who has drawn the Number 1 position. Informed One Nation voters might choose him. So will donkeys, whose preferences will flow through to Alexander.
On those numbers, I get Labor = 35.7 + GRN 7.0 * 0.8 + CON-CD (6.2 + 2.3) * 0.2 + ON 2.6 * 0.4 + OTH-UND (2.4+3.4) * 0.5 = 46.9
Maiden also tweeted last night that she can’t find anyone in Labor or Liberals who think KK will win.
Fess
Well here is hoping that KK can pull off an unlikely win!
xavierdylan: Reachtel had LNP favorites at 52% and ALP at 48% in the QLD election. We know how that went. We also know how unreliable seat polls can be
Victoria:
I’m hoping for an Alabama upset result!
When i grow up I want to be…….
Fess
Indeed!!
Here’s an interesting Christmas card!
Anyone else having troubles with The Grauniad site this morning?
Dan G
No, just tested and OK.
“Anyone else having troubles with The Grauniad site this morning?”
This morning?
Say it ain’t so, Joe….
http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/cricket/sun-investigation-smashes-bookies-multimillion-pound-plot-to-rig-third-ashes-test/news-story/b9f9b563b4843d7fd0c8c86e90dace35?utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=CourierMail&utm_medium=Twitter
I wonder what Bennelong voters will make of the reminder of FPM Gillard today with the Child Abuse Royal Commission?
A reall achievement showing how Royal Commissions do work.
Putting into focus the LNP resisting an RC into the banks.
_______________________
Live now RC Child abuse RC statement
One thing about Bennelong that is not being stated is that a big proportion of older Chinese and Korean voters are likely to vote how their community leader tells them to vote. I have a close connection who is Viet, who tells me the non-English speaking generation follows instruction on this and he assumes the same occurs for other Asian communities as this is a cultural norm.
This is, in a way, a big unknown because it is likely these people are not polled or will not respond to polls. Plus, they will not be told until just before the poll who will be endorsed by the community.
The Grauniad Bennelong article just repeats liberal party talking points (Labor ignored).
Yeah, Bill’s beloved Reachtel predicted that the LNP would win in Qld 52-48.
I nominate Justice Peter McLellan as the next Governor-General of Australia.
“Bennelong poll: John Alexander holds clear lead over Keneally”
So JA is given respect by the Guardian by using his full name, but KK only gets referred to by her surname.
I take my hat off to the Commissioners for staying the course in the face of shocking and horrific stories from victims.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5133944/ashes-2017-18-third-test-england-cricket-perth-bookies-rig-plot/
One thing that I haven’t seen discussed regarding Bennelong is voter turnout.
Historically voter turnout for by-elections just over 13% lower than the previous federal election.
(13.13%, last 5 not including New England)
Even Griffith in 2014 was down 12.06%, the only real competitive one with Terri Butler winning by 1.76%.
So with a lower turnout and a tight race the question of motivation becomes more significant.
Labor seem to be much better organised on the ground and have a candidate that actually looks like they want the job.
Will this be significant?
Sohar @ #71 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 5:48 am
What are you trying to say Sohar?
KK is a contributor to the Guardian.
I haven’t seen too many JA pieces there!!!
Not many Prime Ministers can claim life changing legacies.
Julia Gillards RC into child abuse which shone a light into darkened places and broken souls will be writ large in our history.
Gillard has left a defining imprint on our nation.
Meanwhile the Trump imbroglio has ramped up a notch!
jenauthor @ #68 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 5:36 am
This is potentially significant with polling, as how do the polling companies survey these people?
“Donald Trump is the best argument against direct election of the president if we were to become a republic.”
Please, Trump won because of how ridiculously undemocratic US Presidential Elections are.
FPTP – Undemocratic.
Winner-takes-all electoral college states – Undemocratic
Widespread Voter Suppression – Ditto
Voting on a work day!! – …
Announcing the results of east coast counting hours before polls close on the west coast
By all means, if you can think of any more, let me know…
Lizzie
Must have been a temporary glitch. Seems to be all working now. Shit, as they say, happens.
An open letter to Fox Sports asking what they propose to do with their $30 million present from us!!!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-14/an-open-letter-to-fox-sports-on-that-30m-grant/9257418?section=sport
abc730: “The most shocking thing to me has been the breadth of the coverups,” says fmr PM @JuliaGillard, who established #RoyalCommission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse. More tonight #abc730 #auspol pic.twitter.com/7pZri4RPrL
https://twitter.com/abc730/status/941083335635345408
GreenJ: so what’s the response @CricketAus … can you guarantee today’s match is clean? news.com.au/sport/cricket/…
https://twitter.com/greenj/status/941086523360808960
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/14/dont-extend-churches-freedom-when-theyve-abused-those-they-already-have?CMP=soc_568
Bill Maher gets right to the point…..
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/941064830907162624
That Richard Ackland Guradian article condludes
From the Bill Maher twitter comments! 🙂
:large
Anyone looking for a “tear up” should watch this video of Joe Biden consoling Meagan McCain (John McCain’s daughter) on television. It’s truly a moving piece of footage.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tanyachen/joe-biden-and-meghan-mccain-shared-a-powerful-emotional?utm_term=.scLajjpwm#.nlZopprGd
KK presser live now.
Challenging JA
“Bennelong poll: John Alexander holds clear lead over Keneally”
So JA is given respect by the Guardian by using his full name, but KK only gets referred to by her surname.
I think it reflects the number of people that know who they mean by Keneally (virtually everyone likely to be reading the story), vs the comparatively low number that would know who they meant by Alexander (he’s less well known, and it’s a first name)
I wouldn’t want to be blessed by Lyle Shelton’s god, thank you.
BenOquist: The most important statistic in today’s Bennelong #ReachTEL >> the elelectorate wants services before tax cuts @TheAusInstitute pic.twitter.com/2T2nIY1AR5
lizzie @ #92 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 6:45 am
Can I join you in hell? 🙂
@ lizzie……”I wouldn’t want to be blessed by Lyle Shelton’s god, thank you.”……………
Abbott,Hastie & Lyle’s god is not too impressed about blessing them if how they “prayed” for a different SSM result is anything to go by.
GG
having just gone through a false positive C diagnosis (and also being a huge Biden fan) I appreciated the Biden link. Thanks.
stilgherrian: “Fairfax Media, News Corp and Nine to explore shared user IDs”, reports @mumbrella mumbrella.com.au/fairfax-media-…
https://twitter.com/stilgherrian/status/941096037787213824
Interesting tweet……….
https://twitter.com/bugwannostra/status/941094607110074368
Simon Katich @ #96 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 11:01 am
A great relief for you I hope.
Best wishes. ☮