ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  1. Coorey makes the good point that Bennelong is vital to Turnbull because, if he loses, the cross-benchers can refer libs to the High Court. Coorey then gives the game away when he says “There could be a rash of by-elections”. Really Phil? You mean Malcolm is acting like a generalissmo?

  2. Re Ghost Who Votes @8:46AM: there is no One Nation Candidate in Bennelong, but there is an Australian Liberty Alliance candidate, who has drawn the Number 1 position. Informed One Nation voters might choose him. So will donkeys, whose preferences will flow through to Alexander.

    On those numbers, I get Labor = 35.7 + GRN 7.0 * 0.8 + CON-CD (6.2 + 2.3) * 0.2 + ON 2.6 * 0.4 + OTH-UND (2.4+3.4) * 0.5 = 46.9

  3. xavierdylan: Reachtel had LNP favorites at 52% and ALP at 48% in the QLD election. We know how that went. We also know how unreliable seat polls can be

  4. I wonder what Bennelong voters will make of the reminder of FPM Gillard today with the Child Abuse Royal Commission?

    A reall achievement showing how Royal Commissions do work.

    Putting into focus the LNP resisting an RC into the banks.

    _______________________

    Live now RC Child abuse RC statement

  5. One thing about Bennelong that is not being stated is that a big proportion of older Chinese and Korean voters are likely to vote how their community leader tells them to vote. I have a close connection who is Viet, who tells me the non-English speaking generation follows instruction on this and he assumes the same occurs for other Asian communities as this is a cultural norm.

    This is, in a way, a big unknown because it is likely these people are not polled or will not respond to polls. Plus, they will not be told until just before the poll who will be endorsed by the community.

  6. The Grauniad Bennelong article just repeats liberal party talking points (Labor ignored).
    Yeah, Bill’s beloved Reachtel predicted that the LNP would win in Qld 52-48.

  7. “Bennelong poll: John Alexander holds clear lead over Keneally”
    So JA is given respect by the Guardian by using his full name, but KK only gets referred to by her surname.

  8. One thing that I haven’t seen discussed regarding Bennelong is voter turnout.

    Historically voter turnout for by-elections just over 13% lower than the previous federal election.
    (13.13%, last 5 not including New England)

    Even Griffith in 2014 was down 12.06%, the only real competitive one with Terri Butler winning by 1.76%.

    So with a lower turnout and a tight race the question of motivation becomes more significant.

    Labor seem to be much better organised on the ground and have a candidate that actually looks like they want the job.

    Will this be significant?

  9. Not many Prime Ministers can claim life changing legacies.
    Julia Gillards RC into child abuse which shone a light into darkened places and broken souls will be writ large in our history.
    Gillard has left a defining imprint on our nation.

  10. jenauthor @ #68 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 5:36 am

    One thing about Bennelong that is not being stated is that a big proportion of older Chinese and Korean voters are likely to vote how their community leader tells them to vote. I have a close connection who is Viet, who tells me the non-English speaking generation follows instruction on this and he assumes the same occurs for other Asian communities as this is a cultural norm.

    This is, in a way, a big unknown because it is likely these people are not polled or will not respond to polls. Plus, they will not be told until just before the poll who will be endorsed by the community.

    This is potentially significant with polling, as how do the polling companies survey these people?

  11. “Donald Trump is the best argument against direct election of the president if we were to become a republic.”

    Please, Trump won because of how ridiculously undemocratic US Presidential Elections are.
    FPTP – Undemocratic.
    Winner-takes-all electoral college states – Undemocratic
    Widespread Voter Suppression – Ditto
    Voting on a work day!! – …
    Announcing the results of east coast counting hours before polls close on the west coast
    By all means, if you can think of any more, let me know…

  12. Sadly the euphoria that greeted the arrival of gender neutral marriages in Australia was not shared by everyone.

    Lyle Shelton gets more media mentions than all three leading yes campaigners
    Read more
    Many of the Anglicans must be pretty sore at tipping $1m down the drain in a futile attempt to hold back the tide. Evangelicals of other stripes also would feel chiselled that their investment in the traditional marriage campaign has returned no bankable dividends.

    Lyle Shelton from the Australian Christian Lobby is groping for relevance and has been reduced to sending a “God bless” message to John Howard via Twitter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/14/dont-extend-churches-freedom-when-theyve-abused-those-they-already-have?CMP=soc_568

  13. That Richard Ackland Guradian article condludes

    Quite apart from the earth being flat, in living memory we have had everything from hotel and retail trading hours organised according to church dictates, restrictions on scientific and medical research, laying down rules about women having children and not having children, and telling everyone that God disapproved of divorce – all of which is invariably accompanied by lashings of fire and brimstone.

    Then there are the endless taxpayer dollars allocated to prop up church schools and school chaplains, many of who are filling children’s heads with all sorts of feudal nonsense.

    And there is the staggering assumption by church leaders that they had the freedom to act outside the law and protect priests and others who engaged in criminal sexual assaults on children.

    Enough, already. It’s unthinkable to extend the “freedom” of churches when they have so conspicuously abused the freedoms they already have.

  14. “Bennelong poll: John Alexander holds clear lead over Keneally”
    So JA is given respect by the Guardian by using his full name, but KK only gets referred to by her surname.

    I think it reflects the number of people that know who they mean by Keneally (virtually everyone likely to be reading the story), vs the comparatively low number that would know who they meant by Alexander (he’s less well known, and it’s a first name)

  15. BenOquist: The most important statistic in today’s Bennelong #ReachTEL >> the elelectorate wants services before tax cuts @TheAusInstitute pic.twitter.com/2T2nIY1AR5

  16. @ lizzie……”I wouldn’t want to be blessed by Lyle Shelton’s god, thank you.”……………

    Abbott,Hastie & Lyle’s god is not too impressed about blessing them if how they “prayed” for a different SSM result is anything to go by.

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