ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  1. My (very) crude stats suggest that, from what I can glean of published seat polls, the the most likely result in Benelong is 51.5: 48.5 to John Alexander, with a margin of error of 1.8%. I would not normally include the decimal places with that margin of error, but in this case the extra significant figure probably does prevent information loss.

    This says that a narrow Labor win is within the statistical possibilities, but one of the less likely outcomes. Probably enough reason for Turnbull to be looking unhappy. If any of the MSM go for the “7% swing against Turnbull govt” after the result, then Turnbull as leader could be in trouble.

    And of course, with a Labor win possible, Turnbull’s very government is in danger.

    If Labor does pull off a win, we may well see a change of government after a slew of by-elections.

  2. MelissaLDavey: Turnbull tried to leave the child abuse royal commission final hearing through the back door without answering questions. We did not let him. pic.twitter.com/46R9yyb1VH

  3. Simon Katich (Block)
    Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 11:08 am
    Comment #101

    They talk about Warne bowling the ball of the century. But this one is the best ball I have ever seen bowled. Ryan Harris to Cook….

    Unaccustomed to expletives, I must admit to a rousing “fuck me” watching the clip.

    Hoping for some interesting cricket today. 😎

  4. davidwh
    The Harris delivery had both aggression and elegance. It was a thing of great beauty. Not sure Thommo ever bowled with elegance but any delivery that causes short term pain to an English (South African) batsman has to be up there.

  5. Thanks Barney and LU. I come away from it with a greater appreciation for little things, a nice long scar and a memorable up-close interaction with the nRAH.

  6. @ Simon Katich
    Every now and then you get one to swing after the bounce, that one shaped in, then away after. Nothing Cook could do, he actually did well to play the good defensive shot, but out-swing so soon after the bounce is unplayable. A still/nearly still seam is very unpredictable

  7. Former British PM Cameron slams Trump’s ‘dangerous’ fake news attacks: ‘Bad for the fight against corruption’

    When Donald Trump uses the term ‘fake news’ to describe CNN and the BBC, that is not just a questionable political tactic,” Cameron said. “It’s actually dangerous.”

    Cameron noted while “of course” broadcasters make mistakes, Trump’s use of “fake news” as a derogatory attack on the media “is an attempt to question the whole legitimacy of organizations that have an important role in our democracy.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/former-british-pm-cameron-slams-trumps-dangerous-fake-news-attacks-bad-for-the-fight-against-corruption/

  8. John McCain blasts Trump for ‘fake news’ attacks on the media: It ’empowers repressive regimes’

    In a Wednesday evening tweet, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) called on President Donald Trump to stop using “fake news” to discredit journalists in light of a report about journalists jailed for similar charges overseas.

    Linking to a report by the Committee to Protect Journalists that details the 21 international journalists imprisoned for publishing “false news,” McCain said the president’s use of his favorite epithet “empowers repressive regimes to jail reporters & silence the truth.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/john-mccain-blasts-trump-for-fake-news-attacks-on-the-media-it-empowers-repressive-regimes/

  9. Karl Rove destroys Steve Bannon: He showed up looking like ‘a scruffy out-of-work homeless guy’

    The deepening chasm between “establishment” Republicans and their more “radical” white nationalist counterparts got a bit more fractious on Wednesday when Karl Rove took a jab at Breitbart executive Steve Bannon.

    Rove then described Bannon’s outfit at one of his Moore speeches: “three shirts layered on each other underneath a fatigue jacket, unshaven and ranting and raving at the so-called establishment in Washington.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/karl-rove-destroys-steve-bannon-he-showed-up-looking-like-a-scruffy-out-of-work-homeless-guy/

  10. Time for a mea culpa on my part.

    I said Moore would win because Alabama is a deep red state. I was surprised to see Jones win. I must admit I was wrong.

  11. And I must admit that as about two-thirds of the white men in Alabama decided they’d sooner vote for a likely pedophile than a Democrat, I’m ashamed to be cut from the same genetic cloth as them.

    I don’t know why white men are often such massive assholes, I really don’t.

  12. a r @ #125 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 7:59 am

    And I must admit that as about two-thirds of the white men in Alabama decided they’d sooner vote for a likely pedophile than a Democrat, I’m ashamed to be cut from the same genetic cloth as them.

    I don’t know why white men are often such massive assholes, I really don’t.

    Maybe it’s because we’ve rarely been held accountable!!!

  13. Ides of March says:
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 11:50 am
    Time for a mea culpa on my part.

    I said Moore would win because Alabama is a deep red state. I was surprised to see Jones win. I must admit I was wrong.

    You’re not the only one. Nearly everyone was surprised. The result suggests to me that democracy has a kind of self-healing property. America will be better for this and so will everyone else. It’s also worth noting that just 35% of eligible voters are estimated to have taken part. So 18% of the voters in a small and repressed jurisdiction may have just changed the course of American politics. The lesson is…organise, organise, organise!

  14. Some MPs believe Senator Dastyari could have survived the scandal if he had hung on until Christmas, and that he was unfairly treated by Mr Shorten and sections of the Labor Left faction.

    Finger pointing has begun, with some members of the Right suggesting a co-ordinated attack was launched on Senator Dastyari to force him out.

    A report that Senator Dastyari pressured deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek not to meet a pre-democracy activist in Hong Kong, which was quickly followed by senior Left MPs Catherine King and Linda Burney suggesting he should consider his position, has been blamed as the final straw before Senator Dastyari’s demise.

    “Sam was pushed, and pushed in the worst possible way – by being leaked against by his own people. It looked like a co-ordinated campaign,” one MP said.

    None of us were deluded about the extent to which this has hurt us but I’m not aware of anyone in the Right who did think he should go. He deserved more support.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sam-dastyari-to-keep-drawing-taxpayer-salary-for-weeks-despite-resigning-20171212-h03mv9.html

  15. a r says:
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 11:59 am
    And I must admit that as about two-thirds of the white men in Alabama decided they’d sooner vote for a likely pedophile than a Democrat, I’m ashamed to be cut from the same genetic cloth as them.

    72%…nearly 3/4

    You should not feel ashamed. They do not speak for you. We should ask what it is about their experience that drives attachment to the depraved.

  16. mormorlady: @DeborahAnnG @earthma23 @turnballmalcolm @KKeneally This is rather interesting @LiberalAus could be in serious trouble.!! pic.twitter.com/zbBnZRByE6

  17. Why on earth is the government potentially under threat due to a string of by-elections if Turnbull has the citizenship issue ‘sorted’, just like he has energy and SSM ‘resolved’.

    Sometimes I don’t understand how the press gallery writes it’s articles.

  18. ForecasterEnten: He may not end up declaring a formal candidacy, but Joe Biden is most definitely running for president right now twitter.com/kylegriffin1/s…
    kylegriffin1: Joe Biden: “I wish I had been able to do more for Anita Hill. I owe her an apology.” teenvogue.com/story/joe-bide…

    kylegriffin1: Joe Biden: “I wish I had been able to do more for Anita Hill. I owe her an apology.” teenvogue.com/story/joe-bide…

  19. hilojo: @ABCNews24 Child abuse RC process findings& recommendations r part of needed transformation of nation towards justice& full capability of all citizens- especially ending uncontested patriarchies of religions& government

  20. peterjukes: If you want the real scale of social media and internet subversion… twitter.com/theanonjournal…
    TheAnonJournal: BREAKING NEWS: New York’s Attorney General releases more information regarding FCC comment hack. Two million used stolen identities, three million used fake ones, another million originated from Russia. #NetNeutrality pic.twitter.com/sYGZ7JLdIr

  21. “Sometimes I don’t understand how the press gallery writes it’s articles”
    Very few people in the Australian media have above average intelligence. Most are there because they a warriors for the right of politics, went to the right school or fit a the right social demographic. Talent or intelligence has little to do with it.

  22. a r says:
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 11:59 am
    And I must admit that as about two-thirds of the white men in Alabama decided they’d sooner vote for a likely pedophile than a Democrat, I’m ashamed to be cut from the same genetic cloth as them.

    I don’t know why white men are often such massive assholes, I really don’t.

    A lot of white women would have voted for Moore too (less than men but still many). Presumably you would label them as ‘massive assholes’ as well.

  23. Sohar @ #135 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 12:21 pm

    “Sometimes I don’t understand how the press gallery writes it’s articles”
    Very few people in the Australian media have above average intelligence. Most are there because they a warriors for the right of politics, went to the right school or fit a the right social demographic. Talent or intelligence has little to do with it.

    Possibly true, but in reference to the original comment, you would hope that they would know how to use apostrophes, although sadly this is not always the case.

  24. Matt Haggis‏ @matthaggis666 · 2h2 hours ago

    Replying to @AndrewBurrell7 @primroseriordan

    Michaelia Cash ditches Senate Estimates questioning on the Friday to fly to Perth, stating she was “too busy”. Now De Garis is found working in Perth (Aust Hotels Assoc). Coincidence?


    GeorgeHarley‏ @GeorgeIsa1 · 31m31 minutes ago

    Replying to @AndrewBurrell7

    And the Australian Hotels Association are one of the biggest benificiaries of the WA Sen Cash’s slave labour PATH programme. What a happy coincidence.

  25. Decades of brainwashing that in a red state (especially the religious) you will vote GOP will do that to you.

    We saw the same locally with New England.

  26. Darn @ #136 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 11:24 am

    A lot of white women would have voted for Moore too (less than men but still many). Presumably you would label them as ‘massive assholes’ as well.

    I think they were split a fair bit closer to 50/50? So just ordinary assholes.

    adrian @ #142 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    guytaur @ #140 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 12:29 pm

    Decades of brainwashing that in a red state (especially the religious) you will vote GOP will do that to you.

    We saw the same locally with New England.

    If the voters of Bennelong vote for Alexander and this useless rump of a government, are they any better?

    I don’t think Alexander wants to ban Muslims and outlaw homosexuality, so strictly speaking, yes they are.

  27. a r @ #144 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 12:44 pm

    Darn @ #136 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 11:24 am

    A lot of white women would have voted for Moore too (less than men but still many). Presumably you would label them as ‘massive assholes’ as well.

    I think they were split a fair bit closer to 50/50? So just ordinary assholes.

    adrian @ #142 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    guytaur @ #140 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 12:29 pm

    Decades of brainwashing that in a red state (especially the religious) you will vote GOP will do that to you.

    We saw the same locally with New England.

    If the voters of Bennelong vote for Alexander and this useless rump of a government, are they any better?

    I don’t think Alexander wants to ban Muslims and outlaw homosexuality, so strictly speaking, yes they are.

    Yes, but neither did Joyce, I imagine. At least not in public.

  28. hilojo: @ABCNews24 As historic& transformational RC into child abuse concludes time to recall opponents like journo Paul John Kelly – also propagandist against ssm. Discredited& contemptible

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