The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.
Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.
YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50
The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.
Sam Dastiary has decided to resign?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/12/sam-dastyari-quits-parliament/
I am a bit late to the news today,
@sonar – ta! *Fingers crossed*
Still not a fan of the ‘Christian parties’ option that YouGov offers…
[img]
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Toby Esterhase
Couldn’t give a ratz. Gillespie is just another nobody Coalition drone back bencher who if knocked off would just be replaced with another just like him.
ChkChkChk,
Labor not an option in Yougov poll?
@Sohar…I think the image was cropped mistakenly.
@ChkChkChk….glad to help..lol
Re Bennelong. On Saturday there will be a state wide army of red shirts descending on the polling booths. A number of Gilmore Labor people are going , C@T has intimated her presence [keep your claws in] and the talk is the same on the grapevine. Yee ha!
How do we know a certain M Turnbull isn’t a significant investor in YouGov, perhaps through a shady Cayman Islands shelf company?
< /tinfoil >
He isn’t of course but would you put it past him, the single regret he has while being PM
“On Saturday there will be a state wide army of red shirts descending on the polling booths”
The Libs might have to turn to Centrelink for help, or the Press Gallery could lend a hand for Malky. I’m sure the Libs can rely on jounalists from the ABC, Fairfax and the Guardian to turn out for JA and Malcolm.
Outside left
I’ll be there, I should be easy to spot, just look for the red NSW Labor tshirt. I requested a booth at the Bradfield end.
I wonder if revenge is in Sam D’s nature.
I truly hope so.
@sohar – as I don’t own one of the new iPhones that has a screen the size of a tablet, the screenshot couldn’t fit the ALP in.
They were listed below ‘Christian parties’.
A few things I saw or heard today while out:
– Hadley still scathing of Turnbull
– ABC radio news at noon went on and on about all the alleged sins of Dastyari (doubtless to try and justify their involvement in ruthlessly pursuing him).
– paper DT in a cafe had big coverage of their podcast interviewing Turnbull yesterday; also claimed that Shorten was a drag on KK’s vote, quoting Liberal party “research”.
Not sure why but Oz has a damning article on cuts to penalty rates:
Let’s hope the Army of Redshirts don’t all meet an untimely end on Saturday. 😉
LLAP, Millennial (you nerd)
If Bennelong falls on Saturday, how long will Brian Trumble last? My tip is for chaos and disunity over the Christmas period followed by a special party meeting in mid January, with several challengers including, but not limited to Dutton, Morrison and Porter.
There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that should Bennelong fall that the L/NP will not cope with the stresses minority government and we’d be off to a house only election shortly thereafter.
JBishop issues a denial, so the Libs must be very worried, especially in light of the Newspoll result.
(I can’t jump the Oz paywall but these Google extracts give a good idea)
What was that about the dingo? Was it to do with that lady that was attacked by her pet dingos?
citizen @ #366 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 11:46 am
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has denied that the Turnbull government’s rhetoric around Chinese interference is having an impact on its candidate John Alexander’s prospects in Saturday’s Bennelong by-election.
The latest two-party preferred Newspoll has Mr Alexander tied 50-50 with Labor candidate Kristina Keneally in the north western Sydney seat, which is home to a large Chinese community.
“By-elections are always difficult, particularly for an incumbent government, but there will be a range of issues that affect the outcome in Bennelong,” Ms Bishop told Sky News.
“John Alexander is a very popular local member, he is working very hard, and he is a very strong advocate for the people of Bennelong, and I’m hoping that we’ll get a very strong result in Bennelong, but of course there are a whole range of issues that affect by-elections.
“I’ve always assumed that a by-election would be difficult to win. There are many by-elections where governments have lost, but there are others such as the New England by-election where we won, so you never take it for granted and I know John Alexander is working very hard to assure people that he wants to return as their member and continue the fabulous work that he’s been doing as the Member for Bennelong for some years now.”
Labor frontbencher Matt Thistlethwaite said he was hopeful that Ms Keneally could win Bennelong.
“I’ve been out to Bennelong on two occasions now and worked with Kristina Keneally,” Mr Thistlethwaite told Sky News.
“Her energy, her enthusiasm for that particular seat I think is overwhelming and I think she’s going to do a great job, and I’m hopeful that she’ll get over the line.
Mr Thistlethwaite claimed Mr Alexander “didn’t look like his heart was in it”.
“He looked like he was simply going through the motions,” he said.
“We were on the pre-poll one day. He lasted about 20 minutes and he took off. From the time he was there, you can tell on a person’s face, John Alexander didn’t look like his heart was in it, and I think that that’s starting to come through, and of course the fact that the Prime Minister and John Alexander aren’t talking about the issues that affect people, like the disaster the NBN’s been in the area, the fact that Catholic schools have had their funding cut, the problems with the health system.
“These are the issues that are really going to decide the election on the weekend, and that’s why I think Kristina Keneally’s in with a great chance.”
PeeBee @ #367 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 2:53 pm
It’s a reference to Lindy Chamberlain.
PeeBee
Umm you are kidding right; if not look up Azaria Chamberlain.
PeeBee
The dingo reference was almost certainly to the Azaria Chamberlain case.
edit: And I was too slow
Shanghai Sam’s departure is a good out come for the ALP.
I wonder who Bill Shortens new numbers man in NSW is now… ?
Millennial
“Let’s hope the Army of Redshirts don’t all meet an untimely end on Saturday. ”
Quite a few classic Star Trek episodes spring to mind. Things never ended well for the ‘red shirt’.
Re the impact of penalty rates cuts, I understand that the Coalition is still waiting for empirical evidence to support the otherwise unbelievable assertion that if people have less money to spend then they will spend less money.
citizen @ #366 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 11:46 am
A plausible explanation for Bishop’s denial and Alexander’s reported demeanour and behaviour is that Liberal internal polling and data analytics is worse than leaked & published polling has revealed, indicating a double digit swing against the Liberals in Bennelong.
“I wonder who Bill Shortens new numbers man in NSW is now… ?”
Putting your hand up, Rex?
PuffyTMD @ #359 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 2:14 pm
Who should he seek revenge on ?
Grimace
Anyone but Morrison.
If I hear “instant asset write off” one more time I’ll go postal.
kakuru @ #377 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 3:00 pm
Lee Rhianon will be free shortly.
Our beloved PM, surely not!!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/12/indigenous-voice-malcolm-turnbull-remarks-anger
50/50 in Bennelong.
Without the Bill Shorten anchor effect, it’s probably 55/45 to KK.
Rex Douglas @ #380 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 2:01 pm
Whomever was bugging his phone, recording his conversations, and then leaking them to the media in an attempt to influence the outcome of a by-election?
I mean, I guess you can argue that he consented to all of those things happening, but that strains credulity. Far, far more likely that he consented to absolutely none of it and is rightfully upset that any of it occurred in the first place.
“Without the Bill Shorten anchor effect, it’s probably 55/45 to KK.”
Get your hand off it Rex.
The only thing I believe in the Daily Telegraph is the date.
Rex Douglas @ #382 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 3:03 pm
Oh Rex, now you’re spoofing yourself.
Rex Douglas @ #381 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 11:03 am
You’re becoming conservative!!!
Surely it would be 80/20!!!! 🙂
a r @ #376 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 3:04 pm
He only has himself to blame.
Too many people these days point fingers at others rather than taking responsibility for their own actions.
I am reading Don Watsons American Journeys.
In a very moving section he recounts his visit to the memorial for the victims of the Oklahoma City bombing. He then suggests;
The paradox says a lot about the US in general.
The date in the Daily Telegraph is always 1959. Bring back Menzies.
I ran a straw poll last night, as some will recall, asking PBs to declare if they were in favour of Sam resigning or not.
There were twelve responses and the vote was two to one against – 8 to 4 – I was one of the four. I just couldn’t see any other way to stem the bleeding.
Obviously Shorten saw it that way too. He is too close to taking Labor back into government to allow anything like this to upset their momentum. I’m sure in one way or another Sam will be well looked after by the party after they win the next election.
Bill Shorten is deeply unpopular. That’s proven in the polling.
It simply must have an anchor effect on Labor candidates.
No political leader in this current environment would be popular enough to boost KK (particularly in a seat like Bennelong), it’s Turnbull’s weight of disappointment that is dragging JA down… that and JA’s own sheer uselessness.
Barney in Go Dau @ #380 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 12:03 pm
Looks like the REAL Brian Trumble made an appearance on Q&A last night, and by “REAL” I don’t mean the fabled Real Brian Trumble (TM) of CPG fame.
@Rex” No one take’s me seriously” Douglas………..A Newspoll that says there is a 10% swing on against the govt in Bennelong and you say….”Bill Shorten is deeply unpopular. That’s proven in the polling.”……….
Mate,you are the best comedy act in town…lol
That’s exactly what Liberal party internal research on Bennelong is saying, according to today’s DT. Do you have inside knowledge of this research?
“Bill Shorten is deeply unpopular. That’s proven in the polling.”
Three responses:
(1) No, he’s not.
(2) Tony Abbott’s poor polling as OL didn’t stop him from winning the 2013 election in a landslide.
(3) Rex, you need a new hobby (something aside from Shorten-bashing).
@ Rex – the data we have for the likely results in Bennelong without the Shorten ‘anchor’ effect are (all TPP to Labor).
42.23%, 46.88%, 51.4%, 45.67%, 42.3%, 43.97%, 39.87%, 46.81%, 39.7%, 39.4%, 41.5%, 43.3%, 41.6%, 36.6%, 37.2%, 45.5%, 47.6%, 43.2%, 34.6%, 38.5% (and I could go on).
50:50 would be the 2nd best result for Labor in the seat’s history, beaten only by Workchoices.
If you’re saying that Shorten is likely to produce the 2nd best result for Labor ever, and changing MIGHT improve that, why take the risk?
grimace @ #393 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 3:15 pm
I bet he regrets not wearing his magic leather jacket to ward off unsympathetic questions.
Rex Douglas @ #389 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 2:07 pm
If you say so.
I for one am not in favor of giving ASIO free reign to bug everyone’s phones, record their conversations, and pass their recordings on to the government of the day.
Nor am I in favor of giving the government of the day free reign to receive recorded conversations from ASIO and then leak them to the media whenever it’s politically expedient for them to do so.
Dastyari’s sins are a minor concern compared to the campaign that’s been orchestrated against him. Woe unto anyone who finds themselves on the wrong side of the Australian government, apparently.
We need a Bill of Rights. Like, immediately.
“The only thing I believe in the Daily Telegraph is the date”
Not true – carbon dating is more accurate.