Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Essential defies the weekend narrative by recording a move to Labor, and finds Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop in a statistical dead heat for preferred Liberal leader.

After a weekend of relatively good electoral and polling news for the government, Essential Research records Labor’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 55-45. A preferred Liberal leader question has Malcolm Turnbull down four since July to 21%, Julie Bishop down one to 19% and Tony Abbott unchanged on 10%. More detail on both of these will be available when Essential Research publishes its full results later today. On the question of a potential leadership change, 18% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 13% for less likely and 54% for no difference.

The poll also found 38% wanted the Liberals and Nationals to continue working together, compared with 34% who thought they should be independent – with the former option heavily favoured by Coalition voters. Fifty-four per cent said they favoured majority government, with 25% preferring minor parties holding the balance of power. Fifty-one per cent felt politicians should be forced to resign from parliament if they resigned from their party, with only 24% holding the opposite view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,205 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Presumably if any leglislation arises from Ruddock’s inquiry, there will be a conscience vote for the Liberal party.

    Also they will have to be very careful to not be in breach of section 116 of the constitution :

    “Section 116 of the Constitution of Australia precludes the Commonwealth of Australia (i.e., the federal parliament) from making laws for establishing any religion, imposing any religious observance, or prohibiting the free exercise of any religion.”

  2. In the end, when it came time for the Churchies to put up their reasons for opposing Marriage Equality…we got electric guitars!

    It should have been banjos.

  3. Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice
    3h3 hours ago
    16 pollies voted NO to same-sex marriage: David Littleproud, Russell Broadbent, Keith Pitt, Eric Abetz, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Slade Brockman, Barry O’Sullivan, Chris Ketter, John Williams, Helen Polley Brian Burston, Fraser Anning Bob Katter, Lucy Gichuhi, Cory Bernardi

    Isn’t Russell Broadbent a supposed Liberal moderate?

  4. I would also like it if the Canberra Press Gallery would stop referring to that Fundamentalist Christian Nutter, Andrew Hastie, as a future Prime Minister of Australia. That individual would not know how to separate Church from State!

  5. sprocket_

    Wikipedia are fast. In Littleproud’s entry

    “In December 2017, Littleproud was one of only four members of the House of Representatives to oppose the Marriage Equality bill.”

  6. C@tmomma

    He also has not answered the question he has been asked several times “Do you believe in Creationism ?” Asked because his dad does.

  7. Growler I think Labor would be wise to quickly move on as well remembering that a not insignificant chunk of their voters are about as keen on gay marriage as they are on drinking battery acid and they are heavily concentrated geographically, much more concentrated than the LNP ones who voted no.

  8. Charles kind of politics. @ #2167 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 10:28 pm

    Growler I think Labor would be wise to quickly move on as well remembering that a not insignificant chunk of their voters are about as keen on gay marriage as they are on drinking battery acid and they are heavily concentrated geographically, much more concentrated than the LNP ones who voted no.

    But, as we have been so reliably informed this is a way to the hipster vote which was never going to vote Labor. Dream on, baby!

  9. Charles kind of politics. @ #2166 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 6:28 pm

    Growler I think Labor would be wise to quickly move on as well remembering that a not insignificant chunk of their voters are about as keen on gay marriage as they are on drinking battery acid and they are heavily concentrated geographically, much more concentrated than the LNP ones who voted no.

    How could the Libs use it against them?

    Only nutters like Divided Nation and Bernardi may get anything out of this.

  10. Where I live in country Victoria most people don’t give a s**t about ME.
    They are concerned about:
    – jobs
    – environment
    – education
    – infrastructure

    If you are gay / lesbian or any letters of the alphabet we don’t care… engage marry f**k not interested. You are one of us. Don’t try and be different. We support you. There are bigger issues to focus on.

  11. Maybe, Charles kop, but I suspect those same voters don’t like the Anglo-celt supremacism or the bosses-rightsism that the LNP stands for either.

  12. and they are heavily concentrated geographically, much more concentrated than the LNP ones who voted no.

    The vast majority of electorates across the country voted Yes.

  13. Steven

    Sam Dastyari not a big issue in your neck of the woods?

    No mention of the danger to western civilisation posed by Kristina Kenneally?

    I am amazed.

  14. poroti,
    He also has not answered the question he has been asked several times “Do you believe in Creationism ?” Asked because his dad does.

    Of course Andrew Hastie believes in Creationism. He would deny it otherwise.

  15. Steven: why the implied hostility towards “gay / lesbian or any letters of the alphabet” as you so dismissively put it? It wasn’t us who outlawed that equality. You might be “f**k not interested” but it required a change of the “f**k”en law and the LNP wanted YOU to respond to a “f**k”en survey.

  16. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Thursday, December 7, 2017 at 11:55 pm
    briefly @ #2176 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 7:46 pm

    Dee Madigan is fabulous.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-07/the-drum-thursday-december-7/9238258
    It was a great show.

    Perfect timing with Madigan and Marr, and the passing of the legislation.

    Yes, very well put together. David Marr his usual demonstrative, vivid self. I admire him very much as well. This is a very great day for democracy and for equality. I am quite awe-struck. We will be so much the better for this.

  17. Confessions says:
    Friday, December 8, 2017 at 12:03 am
    briefly:

    Jackie Kelly sounded like she’d been on the booze. She was slurring her speech.

    Quite likely, fess 🙂

    Thinking of which, I have had a glass or two of red as well. I feel like we have officially banished some demons…that we have repealed sin. I guess it will take a while for the remaining effects of fear to fall away. But they will. That is a marvellous gift to our children. I am overjoyed for those in my family who have been so anxiously awaiting this moment; so worried that it would not come. They are jubilant, and I am with them.

  18. briefly @ #2181 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 8:07 pm

    Barney in Go Dau says:
    Thursday, December 7, 2017 at 11:55 pm
    briefly @ #2176 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 7:46 pm

    Dee Madigan is fabulous.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-07/the-drum-thursday-december-7/9238258
    It was a great show.

    Perfect timing with Madigan and Marr, and the passing of the legislation.

    Yes, very well put together. David Marr his usual demonstrative, vivid self. I admire him very much as well. This is a very great day for democracy and for equality. I am quite awe-struck. We will be so much the better for this.

    Marr’s point about the changes during his life from being able to be gaoled for having sex to now put the transition into perspective.

    It is remarkable and satisfying to see how far we have come as a Society and how relatively quickly it has occurred.

    In saying that I still think it should have happened sooner. 🙂

  19. From the absence of certain people here, I think there may be a few sore heads in the morning.

    I hope they’re having fun!!!! 🙂

  20. We went to Muriel’s Wedding tonight. In an accident of timing, I’d bought tickets a year ago for K’s birthday. He cried in the car driving in listening to the house erupt and burst into We Are One. The emotion of all this is too hard for me to let myself be open to yet. It’s like being let out of jail after 60 years. The light is too bright.

    I found a lot of comfort here throughout this whole sorry affair, thanks to you good people.

    Here’s a snap of the curtain calls.

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-glGxQpe6jBc/Wik6zAflJZI/AAAAAAAAGiU/Rub-H25s_ocB4m5hMT06D_cd7CY4OmINACLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_2456.jpg

  21. That’s Maggie McKenna – Muriel – holding the Vote Yes placard. She’s Gina Riley’s daughter, and absolutely brilliant.

  22. Mr Newbie says:
    Friday, December 8, 2017 at 12:44 am
    Which cause will the reactionary right latch onto next, now that marriage equality will soon become reality?

    They have been thoroughly defeated and will not know quite what to make of it. They took themselves to be a hammer, all force and fist; and now must know they are but a splinter in the hand. Their grip is broken.

  23. briefly says:
    Friday, December 8, 2017 at 12:53 am
    Mr Newbie says:
    Friday, December 8, 2017 at 12:44 am
    Which cause will the reactionary right latch onto next, now that marriage equality will soon become reality?

    They have been thoroughly defeated and will not know quite what to make of it. They took themselves to be a hammer, all force and fist; and now must know they are but a splinter in the hand. Their grip is broken.
    ********************************************
    They will wait for Ruddock’s report then cling to it like limpets to rock, trotting out all sorts of faux infringements on ‘their’ rights.

    I do so hope they fall foul of the separation clause in the Constitution.

    It has always caused me wonder why a supposedly omnipotent sky friend needs mortal humans to defend it.

    Cold here tonight, first time we have had to turn on the heater (read that as fan forced oven with door open)

  24. Yes they did confessions, but of the seventeen that voted no 12 were Labor seat, of the ten with the biggest no vote nine were Labor seats,.

    How many people predicted that? No one I read on this site that is for sure? So if you didn’t see that coming how can you claim to know what effect it might have on their future voting patterns.

    Start treating your most rusted on voters with contempt by rubbing their noses in something like this and who knows what might happen.

  25. Dear Charles,

    Fear and hatred of ‘other’ lost today, and we are a better society for it.

    Sorry for your soul if you can’t see and celebrate the good in that.

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