Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Essential defies the weekend narrative by recording a move to Labor, and finds Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop in a statistical dead heat for preferred Liberal leader.

After a weekend of relatively good electoral and polling news for the government, Essential Research records Labor’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 55-45. A preferred Liberal leader question has Malcolm Turnbull down four since July to 21%, Julie Bishop down one to 19% and Tony Abbott unchanged on 10%. More detail on both of these will be available when Essential Research publishes its full results later today. On the question of a potential leadership change, 18% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 13% for less likely and 54% for no difference.

The poll also found 38% wanted the Liberals and Nationals to continue working together, compared with 34% who thought they should be independent – with the former option heavily favoured by Coalition voters. Fifty-four per cent said they favoured majority government, with 25% preferring minor parties holding the balance of power. Fifty-one per cent felt politicians should be forced to resign from parliament if they resigned from their party, with only 24% holding the opposite view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,205 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Diogenes:

    Broadbent has to have a serious mental problem. His statement about why he voted No is absolute gibberish. Somehow ice, childhood allergies and breast cancer are the reason.

    Wow, another loon.

  3. Spare a thought though for Lyle Shelton who must be feeling very dejected at the moment.

    As always Twitter has stepped in to help him through this difficult time in his life by making the hashtag #eatshitlyle trend.

    If you are activate on Twitter, please add this hashtag to all your tweets to let Lyle know we’re thinking of him.

  5. Jackol @ #2041 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    When the HC rules on Constitutional matters it sets a precedent, and that precedent is as much a part of the Constitution as the words written in the Constitution.

    Take the implied (limited) freedom of political speech that the HC found to exist; implied by the democratic mechanisms described in the Constitution.

    Parliament cannot remove or alter that implied freedom of political speech regardless of the fact that it is effectively an artifact of a HC ruling.

    Where it is strictly Constitutional interpretation I agree.
    But that is not the sole business of the HC.

  7. Dan Gulberry @ #2052 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 3:31 pm

    Spare a thought though for Lyle Shelton who must be feeling very dejected at the moment.

    As always Twitter has stepped in to help him through this difficult time in his life by making the hashtag #eatshitlyle trend.

    If you are activate on Twitter, please add this hashtag to all your tweets to let Lyle know we’re thinking of him.

    I think Lyle has already run away on holidays.

    Maybe he’ll find a nice homophobic Country and not return!

    Russia might suit him!! 🙂

  16. Grrrrrr!!!!

    Malcolm Turnbull would have to be the most insensitive, nasty, born-to-rule arsehole this country has installed into the top job. Even worse than Abbott (and that is saying something).

  19. Congratulations to all, especially to those it affects the most.

    I called into the local bottle shop on the way home, just after 6pm, and heard the news from the staff. They were incredibly happy. Saying that they would need to put a many more bottles of bubbly in the fridge, expecting lots of celebrations.

    Walking a bit further to my house, I saw a whole bunch of people in fancy dress going to celebrate. I think Sydney city will be alive with celebration tonight.

    Have early start in the am 🙁

    Off to Facebook now to congratulate everyone!!

  24. We’re rich!

    The Commonwealth Bank appears to have given us $100,000.

    It’s our home loan extension, but they’ve put it in our bank account, and (according to the credit/debit statement at the bottom of the screen) we owe them nothing!

  28. Zoomster

    Enjoy it while you can!

    Many moons ago when Passbooks were the go, I deposited funds with the Commonwealth Bank and instead of it showing as $660, it showed up as $666,000.00. I enjoyed having that amount in my account for a whole weekend. Lol!

  30. All those thousands of people who worked tirelessly for SSM and guess who claims all the credit?

    7:39pm (Fairfax blog)

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is now speaking on the ABC’s 7.30.

    “I am so proud that this has occurred while I’m Prime Minister, while the Liberal and National parties are in government,” Mr Turnbull says.

    He is asked where is ranks in terms of human rights achievements.

    “You couldn’t rank them,” Mr Turnbull says, and adds it is significant is comes 50 years after the 1967 referendum.

  31. And on TV before 730:

    7:08pm (Fairfax blog)

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is speaking on television.

    “What a day for love,” he says.

    “What a unifying day.”

    “This has been a very tough issue which has eluded parties and governments for a long time. I am the first Prime Minister to unequivocally support same-sex marriage, but this is a complex issue.”

    “We had to bring people together. The way we did that was by respecting everybody.”

  32. citizen

    ” I am the first Prime Minister to unequivocally support same-sex marriage, “. says the scumbag who in between ‘bravely’ abstaining was popping in to support amendments . :VOMIT: emoticon.

  33. victoria @ #2076 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 4:16 pm

    Zoomster

    Enjoy it while you can!

    Many moons ago when Passbooks were the go, I deposited funds with the Commonwealth Bank and instead of it showing as $660, it showed up as $666,000.00. I enjoyed having that amount in my account for a whole weekend. Lol!

    That’s a nice thing of living in Vietnam my bank balance currently sits in the hundreds of millions.

    #00,000,000 VNDong

    Unfortunately
    $US1 = 20,000 VND 🙂

  34. Barney IGD

    Hundreds of millions! You are doing well. 😀

    For eg. $666,000 over 20 years ago could have paid for at least 4 homes in my neck of the woods. Now $666,000 doesn’t even pay for one.

  35. Barney

    A friend of my son’s went on holiday to Vietnam recently. Becoming an instant millionaire is one of his favorite memories!

  36. Congratulations to the Yes voters and marriage equality proponents. As with all hard-fought wins this one sure is sweet.

    I saw video of Turnbull in QT today raving on as if he personally was responsible for this. Utterly galling considering if he really was a man of principle he’d have enabled this vote to have happened long before today. Esp once it became Labor policy.

  39. Malcolm Turnbull “I am the first Prime Minister to unequivocally support same-sex marriage, but this is a complex issue.”

    Hey Malcolm – you weren’t invited. You’re not wanted. You’re gate crashing. Piss off! And that goes for Brandis and the rest of you’re rabble.

  40. victoria:

    I bet it’s pissing off Abetz, Abbott, Andrews, Barnaby and co when they hear him say things like how proud he is that it was Liberal National govt that legislated for SSM though!

  44. Confessions

    Not the main vote, the RWNJ amendments, he abstained for most, as did Jewelery Bishop. He did however vote for 2 or 3 RWNJ ammendments.

  45. Weatherill explains what you need to do to get sacked as a Minister in SA, get caught lying or doing something illegal. Ministerial responsibility means fixing the problem but not taking responsibility for incompetence by your department and its oversight.
    Sadly that is pretty much the standard in the Federal government too, and I gather in most states.

    “Premier Jay Weatherill stood by Dr Close, insisting “there’s been an assertion of ministerial responsibility under my leadership”.

    Asked what it would take for a minister to be sacked in SA, Mr Weatherill said: “Dishonesty or illegality, and there’s no suggestion of that”.”

  49. One point about the debate and the final vote.

    What happened to all the Conservatives of conscience who continually criticised Labor Members for voting down amendments, who then ran off and hid with the majority in the final vote.

    Abbott had so much conscience he didn’t vote.

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