Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 19
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  2. Burke’s behaviour doesn’t have to be criminal to be newsworthy. I assume he’s been an arsehole all his life and he’s getting some karma.

    One of the first signs Rudd was a tosser were the stories of his workplace outbursts. If only more people had listened at the time….

  6. John Setka‏ @CFMEUJohnSetka · 24m24 minutes ago

    It seems the more hits @TurnbullMalcolm gets in the polls the more success we have in cleaning up terrorism. Let’s keep this going!
    #auspol

  9. Gottliebsen (The Oz) not happy…

    ‘The fallout from the Queensland state election has created a very dangerous situation for large parts of the Australian residential property market.

    And for the first time, people I respect in the property market are detecting real a nervousness in the eyes of bankers at the top.

    Australia of November 2017 is a vastly different place to a year ago and in some ways our politicians’ actions are akin to parking two full petrol tankers on the edge of a smouldering bushfire.

    The multitude of blows delivered to property investors are “working” and in Sydney and Melbourne apartments investor numbers have been slashed by 20 per cent. while the number of Chinese buyers is down at least 50 per cent from a year ago.

    In Sydney, get set for a big new wave of “off the plan” apartment settlements that fall over.

    read more
    Sydney Harbor BridgeGrim property tale of two cities

    Melbourne’s apartment land has followed Sydney and this week I learned of a buyer who had his bid rejected six months ago but was this month able to buy the property at one third less than he had offered. The seller was being pressured by his bankers and was desperate.

    Although demand from investors and residential occupiers for outer suburban land and houses is strong, auction clearance rates are now regularly below 70 per cent, resulting in a large bank of dwellings that are unsold.
    …’

  11. BevanShields: Mark Dreyfus hints to @David_Speers that Labor may go to the next election promising to create a federal ICAC #auspol

    Just to confirm that earlier tweet.

  12. “We share over 20% with carrots, mangoes, cauliflowers, apples, bananas, and other fruit and veg.”

    So Dutton really is 20% potato?

  15. guytaur @ #410 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 1:42 pm

    BevanShields: Mark Dreyfus hints to @David_Speers that Labor may go to the next election promising to create a federal ICAC #auspol

    Just to confirm that earlier tweet.

    From the Guardian.

    Labor ‘looking very closely’ at federal anti-corruption body: Dreyfus

    The shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus said Labor is closely considering support for a federal anti-corruption body. He said a formal position will be adopted one way or another before the federal election.

    But he appears to be speaking favourably about the concept.

    We’ve certainly never ruled this out. Labor senators participated in a senate select committee, which was unfortunately interrupted by the election last year. It was re-constituted after the election and reported in September and the call that that all party committee made was for the federal government to examine a broad-based anti-corruption agency. the federal govt has not responded to that recommendation made in September. We’re looking very closely at this and could not but be impressed by the call from retired judges of the eminence of those you interviewed yesterday. They are but two of a larger group of very eminent retired judges.

    Between now and the next election, I can say that labor will adopt a formal position one way or another. and I think I can say on behalf of my colleagues that we are looking and listening to what appear to be rising calls for such a body at the federal level.

    Watch this space.

  16. Boerwar @ #407 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 5:40 pm

    Gottliebsen (The Oz) not happy…

    ‘The fallout from the Queensland state election has created a very dangerous situation for large parts of the Australian residential property market.

    And for the first time, people I respect in the property market are detecting real a nervousness in the eyes of bankers at the top.

    Australia of November 2017 is a vastly different place to a year ago and in some ways our politicians’ actions are akin to parking two full petrol tankers on the edge of a smouldering bushfire.

    The multitude of blows delivered to property investors are “working” and in Sydney and Melbourne apartments investor numbers have been slashed by 20 per cent. while the number of Chinese buyers is down at least 50 per cent from a year ago.

    In Sydney, get set for a big new wave of “off the plan” apartment settlements that fall over.

    read more
    Sydney Harbor BridgeGrim property tale of two cities

    Melbourne’s apartment land has followed Sydney and this week I learned of a buyer who had his bid rejected six months ago but was this month able to buy the property at one third less than he had offered. The seller was being pressured by his bankers and was desperate.

    Although demand from investors and residential occupiers for outer suburban land and houses is strong, auction clearance rates are now regularly below 70 per cent, resulting in a large bank of dwellings that are unsold.
    …’

    Multi story apartment developments are not the housing market!

    The standard house and land type purchase surge on.

    The market is at full value. But, there are opportunities.

  20. Don Burke deserves everything he gets for equating Asperger’s syndrome with offensive behaviour, as well as faking a self-diagnosis in a desperate attempt to minimise the contempt he is clearly held in by a large number of people.

  21. Josh Bornstein‏Verified account @JoshBBornstein · 11m11 minutes ago

    The election of Pauline Hanson to the Senate has heralded a new era of reverse intelligence

    Pauline Hanson voted NO in the same-sex marriage postal survey because of reverse racism!

    What does that mean? Does she know herself?

  22. From what I’ve read, neanderthals have had rather a bad press.

    Tony Abbott and the “Liberals” gave them a bad name.

    Sorry, I couldn’t resist. (appropriate emoji)

  25. Sniffing the political winds – based on casual media scrolling- I think KK is a very real chance in Bennelong.
    She’s playing calm offence while JA always seems to be on the backfoot.. The contrasting images across the networks are telling .
    MT has been a bit too shrill, too obviously worried. Shorten looks as though he’s enjoying the ride.
    If KK wins, stand by for only one political story to dominate December and January – Liberal leadership. This will be reinforced by pollsters running specific PPM polls that involve Bishop, Dutton, Turnbull , Morrison and even Abbott.
    And so it will roll on until something big happens.

  26. The latest terrorist arrest seems to be getting only moderate coverage in the MSM. ABC news had a quote from Keenan but nothing from Turnbull.

    This is heading towards how it should be. Let the authorities get on with law enforcement, unencumbered by political grandstanding.

    Unfortunately, Turnbull may again ramp up the rhetoric closer to election time, depending on how desperate the government is to try and gain votes.

  28. BW:

    This is starting to be a bit like having a ‘discussion’ with GT!

    Can’t argue with you there.

    You guys are saying that when you pinch 100 votes from Labor you feed 100 first preferences back to Labor.
    You don’t.
    No Party has that sort of discipline.
    To the extent that you don’t, and there is ALWAYS an extent that you don’t, you are helping the coal burners.

    You seem to be arguing that when 100 people vote Green, those 100 have all been “pinched” from Labor. You seem to be arguing that the Greens never steals voters from other parties, when an analysis of quite a few different seats would prove that to be false

    You also seem to ignoring that voters are fluid, that a large portion of people oscilate regularly between Labor and Liberal, while otherwise will vote for anything other than a major party, while otherwise just vote for whoever has the funniest name.

    Would some of those people who vote 1 Green, 2 Non-Labor had voted 1 Labor in a Greens-free world. Maybe. I don’t know. Neither do you.

    What about protest voters who want to stick it to majors, vote Green, and – like most people do – just blindly follow the HTV card and preference Labor second. Would they have voted 1 Labor otherwise? Or would they have voted for some other minor party of independant that isn’t so Labor-friendly with its preferences? I don’t know. Neither do you.

    What about people who support the Greens *and* dislike Labor, but blindly follow the HTV card and preference Labor second. Would they have voted 1 Labor otherwise? Or would they have voted for the Coalitin or some other minor party of independant that isn’t so Labor-friendly with its preferences? I don’t know. Neither do you.

    What’s your opinion on independents, by the way? Other micro parties? Obviously they cannot guarantee that all their votes go to Labor, no matter what the HTV cards so, so surely they are all helping the coal-burners too, yes?

    Sometimes it is deliberate. Sometimes it is slack. Sometimes it is a mistake.

    Exactly! And in each of those cases, its difficult to argue that those votes would be guaranteed Labor votes here.

    Deliberate preference leaking? Well, that’s obvious – they chose not to follow the HTV card and preference someone other than Labor. It seems logical that they’d also choose not vote 1 Labor in a Greens-free world.

    Lazy, unengaged voters? If they don’t care who they are preferencing, why would they care you gets their first preference? Noone who thinks that little about their vote is a guaranteed voter who *anyone*.

    People who made a mistake? If they are able to accidentally preference the Liberals over Labor, they are just as capable of accidentally voting 1 Labor instead of 1 Liberal.

    Unless you can show some actual statistical evidence (hell, even anecdotal evidence would be step up) to prove your argument here, we’re all just debating over what-ifs and our own feelpinions on the subject.

  29. Just reading the speech by Brandis today on SSM where he calls for gay people not to be ashamed of their homosexuality.

    All good stuff.

    But Brandis is gay himself, isn’t he?

    Why hasn’t *he* come out?

  30. ‘bakunin says:
    Tuesday, November 28, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    BW,

    Malcom Roberts also believes many things.
    And like you I’m sure he is convinced of the absolute truth of what he says.’

    Shit poor analogy! There is NO evidence for your views.

  31. AL

    ‘You seem to be arguing that when 100 people vote Green, those 100 have all been “pinched” from Labor. ‘

    There is no ‘seem’ about it because it is not true.

    Of course the Greens get votes from various sources. Like PHON and the LNP and the Nationals who are all naturally attracted to Greens far left ideology!

  38. We know Malcolm Turnbull is opposed to marriage equality by affording religious organisations the right to discriminate based on sexual orientation – is Bill Shorten’s position the same ?

  39. CHAFF BAG BERGER MAKES GOOD?

    From Rosie Lewis in The Oz

    ‘A former Turnbull government staffer previously caught-up in the Alan Jones scandal — where the radio shock jock made offensive comments about Julia Gillard’s father — has been appointed deputy director of the Liberal Party.

    The Australian understands Simon Berger, who quit his job as a Woolworths executive after being involved in a 2012 Young Liberals function where Jones declared Ms Gillard’s father had died of “shame”, began in the senior campaign role on Monday.

    A second Liberal Party deputy director Isaac Levido — until recently the director of polling company Crosby Textor’s office in Washington DC — will start work in January.

    Mr Berger has also been senior adviser to Employment Minister Michaelia Cash and former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson, and worked for party headquarters at seven federal elections.

    The Australian was told Mr Berger’s move from Senator Cash’s Office to the Liberal Party federal executive was not linked with the scandal involving her senior media adviser David De Garis, who resigned after admitting tipping off media about police raids on the Australian Workers’ Union.

    Mr Berger was a Woolworths community relations manager when he acted as master of ceremonies at a Sydney University Liberal Club President’s Dinner five years ago, with Jones as guest speaker. He also organised a chaff bag jacket signed by Jones that was auctioned.

    The veteran broadcaster had previously suggested on his 2GB program that Ms Gillard and Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore should be placed in the same chaff bag and thrown “out to sea”.

    Jones was reported to have criticised Ms Gillard’s track record on policies like the carbon tax at the Young Liberal event and sparked outrage when he claimed the death of her father was caused by her “lies”.

    The two key hires of Mr Berger and Mr Levido as senior campaign staff come several months after the Liberal Party appointed Andrew Hirst as federal director.

    …’

  40. RNDrive: @LindaBurneyMP speaking with @PatsKarvelas on Noel Pearson’s scathing critique of the government. #auspol #RNDrive pic.twitter.com/rwJWFtxH1B

    JB_AU: Imagine a Human Services Minister who actually cares about humans… twitter.com/RNDrive/status…

  41. GG

    Multi story apartment developments are not the housing market!

    I know bugger all about the property but that there is doubt about the value of these is no surprise as they have been getting heaps of bad publicity for at least two years:

    * shoddy quality building and finish,
    * apartments bought off the plan being completed with large variations to the original plan,
    * crap sound insulation,
    * fire risk both due to construction quality and inadequate fire escape provision,
    * inadequate or no car parking,
    * buildings with very low actual occupancy rates although apartments sold,
    * rat sh#t NBN internet access

    … it just goes on and on.

    Vastly different market to a house or townhouse on a block of land in the ‘burbs.

  43. CTar1 @ #438 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 6:54 pm

    GG

    Multi story apartment developments are not the housing market!

    I know bugger all about the property but that there is doubt about the value of these is no surprise as they have been getting heaps of bad publicity for at least two years:

    * shoddy quality building and finish,
    * apartments bought off the plan being completed with large variations to the original plan,
    * crap sound insulation,
    * fire risk both due to construction quality and inadequate fire escape provision,
    * inadequate or no car parking,
    * buildings with very low actual occupancy rates although apartments sold,
    * rat sh#t NBN internet access

    … it just goes on and on.

    Vastly different market to a house or townhouse on a block of land in the ‘burbs.

    My point exactly. ATM the housing market gets congregated. Melbourne and Sydney property is still growing. WA and NT are basket cases. Everywhere else, there is growth!

  44. MayneReport: Memo to all VAD supporters in the Legislative Assembly. Suggest you get back to Parliament pronto as the vote has been brought on.

  48. Just heard Brian Trumble at the press conference announcing the Macquarie transport hub, say, (I kid you not):

    “The Liberal Party builds, Labor cancels”.

    FMD.

    Labor builds, Liberals flog it off to their spiv mates.

  49. You also seem to ignoring that voters are fluid, that a large portion of people oscilate regularly between Labor and Liberal, while otherwise will vote for anything other than a major party, while otherwise just vote for whoever has the funniest name.

    Ugh, bloody typos. Replace both instances of “otherwise” with “others” in the above quote.

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