Queensland election live

10.31pm. The LNP has a good batch of 4658 votes on the way in Pumicestone, having performed strongly on the primary vote in the main pre-poll booth (a 34.7% to 32.7% lead, compared with a 36.3% to 29.3% lead to Labor overall). So Labor’s raw two-party lead of 309 may not hold for long.

In Pumicestone, the LNP has a primary vote lead in the main pre-poll booth, which has yet to come through on two-party preferred.

10.12pm. Now absolutely lineball in Gaven.

10.06pm. “Not a done deal”, says independent Margaret Strelow of her bid for Rockhampton, which I’ve been inclining to think will succeed.

9.49pm. So let’s try yet again. Labor has surely gained Aspley and Redlands. It leads in Gaven and Pumicestone; a lot hinges on a Pumicestone pre-poll result that should come through shortly. Either Labor or the Greens should win Maiwar. It has surely lost Bundaberg, presumably lost Rockhampton and Mirani, and I would think likely to lose Burdekin. I have no idea at all about Thuringowa, but Labor rep Steven Miles sounds confident. If all go, another two losses will cost them their majority, plus one for each they don’t win out of Gaven, Pumicestone and Maiwar. Such losses might be suffered in Cook or Macalister, and the latter seems unlikely.

9.39pm. Torres Strait Island booths perhaps saving Labor in Cook, their primary vote up from about 33% to 39.3%.

9.31pm. Labor’s precarious leads in Gaven and Pumicestone narrowed in the latest updates.

9.29pm. Antony Green is putting a somewhat higher likelihood on a hung parliament than I have been.

9.07pm. So now Bonney is only a maybe, let’s go round again. Labor gains: Aspley and Redlands. Possible further Labor gains: Gaven, Bonney and Pumicestone. Losses: Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Mirani, maybe Thuringowa and Cook, probably not Macalister. So there’s three they could win, three they could lose, and they’ll scrape a majority together if they win half of them.

9.04pm. Antony wasn’t kidding: Bonney pre-poll booth went 58-42 to LNP, and now it’s lineball.

8.58pm. Antony notes that the addition of large pre-poll booths in the Gold Coast seats, importantly Gaven and Bonney, could shake things up there.

8.51pm. The ABC now has Labor tipping into a slight lead in Pumicestone.

8.50pm. Another seat I’ve neglected due to my focus on a potential Labor majority is Hinchinbrook, which the LNP might lose to Katter’s Australian Party.

8.44pm. South Brisbane closer than I realised.

8.38pm. And now I’ve overlooked Burdekin, a technical Labor seat that’s a three-way heat on the primary vote. Labor only wins if One Nation comes third and delivers them a majority of preferences, which Labor can hope to happen because they have directed them their way.

8.31pm. Scratch that — I had overlooked Redlands. So Labor has probably four gains, maybe a fifth, perhaps six if it’s they who win Maiwar. Against that, four losses seem likely, and two possible. So it’s only the worst case scenario that costs Labor a net two seats and their majority.

8.19pm. The big question to me seems to be whether Labor gets a majority, so I’m tending to downplay features of the count such as the LNP’s apparent loss of Noosa to independent. With a net loss of two to cost them their majority, it now seems clear they will add to that Aspley, Bonney and probably Gaven; Pumicestone, which on this metric is an LNP seat, is too close to call. If they don’t win Pumicestone, the question is, do they lose five seats? It’s happened in Bundaberg and, it seems, Rockhampton. They seem to me at serious risk of losing Mirani and Thuringowa to One Nation. So if all that’s right, Labor needs to hang on in both Cook and Macalister if they don’t win Pumicestone, and either if they do. Caveat: I’m probably missing something.

8.18pm. Cook looks complicated, and not to be called. Labor 32.4%, One Nation 21.3%, Katter’s 20.0%, LNP 19.6%. Could go Katter’s or One Nation if the stars align.

8.15pm. Labor can no longer be regarded as home in Pumicestone either, so the potential window for minority status is a little wider now.

8.13pm. There was a lot of money late in the campaign on Hetty Johnston in Macalister, and it now emerges she is indeed a show of reducing the LNP to third, and overtaking Labor on preferences.

8.00pm. Thinking through the Labor situation again. Labor starts on 48 seats out of 93, a majority with one to spare. Gains: Aspley and Redlands. Possible gains: Bonney, Gaven, Maiwar. Losses: Bundaberg, Rockhampton. Possible further losses to One Nation: Mirani and Thuringowa. So there is a path to minority status there if everything goes wrong, but it’s a narrow one.

7.57pm. Labor has just poked ahead in Mundingburra on the ABC projection. It was earlier calling it for the LNP, which was another result that didn’t seem to gel.

7.45pm. The ABC has also retracted its call of Chatsworth for the LNP; and it now has Labor back in front in Bonney. Labor has almost certainly won Pumicestone, Redlands and Aspley; are in the hunt in Gaven; will win Maiwar if the Greens don’t. But they have lost Bundaberg (ABC says Pumicestone too but I think that’s wrong) to the LNP, Rockhampton to an independent; and they could lose Mirani to One Nation. I think they are now safe from One Nation in Maryborough and Thuringowa. They are apparently safe in South Brisbane. There are some confusing calls on the ABC computer that I don’t trust; if I’m right about those, I’m not seeing where Labor falls below 48.

7.44pm. A turn for the worse for Labor in Gold Coast counting: the ABC has gone back on its call of Theodore for Labor, Bonney is being called a notional LNP retain, and the Labor lead in Gaven has all but vanished.

7.43pm. The LNP is looking good to hold marginal Whitsunday, despite One Nation preferencing against them.

7.40pm. Pretty sure the ABC’s call of Murrumba for the LNP is a bug. The call of Callide for KAP appears to be based on a redundant two-party count, as the KAP is running fourth on the primary vote.

7.39pm. And now Aspley, where early results were discouraging for Labor, is lineball as well.

7.38pm. Labor are starting to find the seats they need: well ahead in Redlands.

7.36pm. The ABC making some big calls for Labor on the Gold Coast: Gaven and Theodore.

7.34pm. So Maiwar could go either Greens or Labor, but not LNP.

7.32pm. Independent Sandra Bolton perhaps coming from nowhere (to me at least) and perhaps winning Noosa, with less than 5% counted. South Brisbane still close.

7.28pm. One Nation looking better in Thuringowa: Katter preferences should get them over the LNP, and LNP preferences might then do it for them. So I’m seeing potential One Nation ones in Mirani, Maryborough and now Thuringowa, all at the expense of Labor. With Labor also looking to lose Bundaberg, they will need to find at least a handful of seats in the south-east. I’m seeing three so far — but the situation is, to say the least, fluid.

7.26pm. Was about to say I didn’t trust the ABC’s call of Mundingburra for the LNP, and it’s now switched to Labor ahead. This looks like a fizzer for One Nation.

7.19pm. ABC computer now calling Maiwar, Chatsworth and Glass House for Labor. But they’re losing Bundaberg to the LNP, and trailing One Nation in Maryborough and possibly Mirani.

7.18pm. Tim Nicholls cutting it fine in Clayfield: 27.8% counted, 6.0% swing, 6.6% margin.

7.16pm. The ABC’s call of Callide for KAP is, I think it’s fair to say, a false alarm.

7.15pm. ABC calling Bundaberg an LNP gain from Labor.

7.12pm. Some encouraging signs for Labor on the Gold Coast: big swing in unwinnable Broadwater, early lead in Gaven.

7.11pm. LNP looking good in Lockyer, Condamine, Gregory, Hinchinbrook and Nanango, and they should be okay in Gympie. Mirani and Maryborough might go to One Nation, but I’m not seeing any others.

7.08pm. ABC computer calling Maryborough for One Nation. However, this is based on a very small number of two-party votes (492 of them), when Labor is well ahead on the much more advanced primary vote count.

7.06pm. Good early result for Labor in Chatsworth, defying my earlier talk of a subdued swing in LNP-held seats in Brisbane.

7.04pm. A close three-way result in Burdekin. If Labor goes out, LNP wins. If LNP goes out, One Nation wins. If One Nation goes out, hard to say.

7.03pm. With 7% counted, Labor looking precarious in Bundaberg, perhaps to be sunk by preferences from third-placed One Nation.

7.00pm. Steve Dickson doesn’t look like retaining Buderim for One Nation; primary vote looking good for LNP.

6.58pm. Antony Green now confirming solid flow of Labor preferences to LNP in Lockyer.

6.57pm. One Nation have fallen to second in Gympie; could still win Mirani on LNP preferences. The ABC computer is calling Mirani for Labor, but it’s doing so on an Labor-versus-LNP basis. We will have to wait on a preference count tomorrow to know what’s really happening here.

6.51pm. Labor seems to be picking up swings in metropolitan seats it already holds, but not so much in LNP seats: early swing to LNP in Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands, small swing to LNP with over 10% counted in Everton.

6.48pm. Only about 300 votes, but preferences in Lockyer suggest Labor is quite heavily favouring the LNP over One Nation, by 64-36.

6.46pm. With over 10% of the primary vote counted, One Nation still not looking all that strong in Lockyer.

6.45pm. No booths from the town yet, but One Nation leads the early count in Gympie.

6.42pm. First booth in Rockhampton is encouraging for Margaret Strelow: she’s clear of the LNP and could win with their preferences.

6.40pm. One Nation looking dangerous in Mirani: with 6% counted, they’re well clear of the LNP and looking well placed to win on their preferences.

6.34pm. The LNP are ahead of One Nation in Lockyer and Burnett, but it’s hard to work out what preferences are doing.

6.27pm. We have nearly 2000 votes in from places where One Nation would be expected to poll very strongly, and they’re on 23.4%, which is perhaps a bit on the lower side.

6.15pm. More on that Nine exit poll in the Sydney Morning Herald (thanks ltep):

The Nine Network/Galaxy exit poll of 1700 people across 18 seats in metropolitan and regional Queensland suggested Ms Palaszczuk will edge out Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls and win 51 seats, enough to form a majority government in the expanded 93-member parliament.

The poll suggested that Labor led the LNP 52-48 in the two-party preferred vote, a result in line with recently published opinion polls; expected Labor losses in regional centres such as Townsville will be offset by gains in the major population centre of south-east Queensland.

6.10pm. An exit poll for Nine predicts a Labor win, but that’s all I can tell you about it. A ReachTEL poll for Sky News apparently has it at 52-48 – I believe this is a regular ReachTEL poll that was conducted today, rather than an exit poll proper.

6pm. Polling has closed, so let the live coverage begin. This being Queensland, we should expect a flurry of small regional booths in fairly shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe