10.31pm. The LNP has a good batch of 4658 votes on the way in Pumicestone, having performed strongly on the primary vote in the main pre-poll booth (a 34.7% to 32.7% lead, compared with a 36.3% to 29.3% lead to Labor overall). So Labor’s raw two-party lead of 309 may not hold for long.
In Pumicestone, the LNP has a primary vote lead in the main pre-poll booth, which has yet to come through on two-party preferred.
10.12pm. Now absolutely lineball in Gaven.
10.06pm. “Not a done deal”, says independent Margaret Strelow of her bid for Rockhampton, which I’ve been inclining to think will succeed.
9.49pm. So let’s try yet again. Labor has surely gained Aspley and Redlands. It leads in Gaven and Pumicestone; a lot hinges on a Pumicestone pre-poll result that should come through shortly. Either Labor or the Greens should win Maiwar. It has surely lost Bundaberg, presumably lost Rockhampton and Mirani, and I would think likely to lose Burdekin. I have no idea at all about Thuringowa, but Labor rep Steven Miles sounds confident. If all go, another two losses will cost them their majority, plus one for each they don’t win out of Gaven, Pumicestone and Maiwar. Such losses might be suffered in Cook or Macalister, and the latter seems unlikely.
9.39pm. Torres Strait Island booths perhaps saving Labor in Cook, their primary vote up from about 33% to 39.3%.
9.31pm. Labor’s precarious leads in Gaven and Pumicestone narrowed in the latest updates.
9.29pm. Antony Green is putting a somewhat higher likelihood on a hung parliament than I have been.
9.07pm. So now Bonney is only a maybe, let’s go round again. Labor gains: Aspley and Redlands. Possible further Labor gains: Gaven, Bonney and Pumicestone. Losses: Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Mirani, maybe Thuringowa and Cook, probably not Macalister. So there’s three they could win, three they could lose, and they’ll scrape a majority together if they win half of them.
9.04pm. Antony wasn’t kidding: Bonney pre-poll booth went 58-42 to LNP, and now it’s lineball.
8.58pm. Antony notes that the addition of large pre-poll booths in the Gold Coast seats, importantly Gaven and Bonney, could shake things up there.
8.51pm. The ABC now has Labor tipping into a slight lead in Pumicestone.
8.50pm. Another seat I’ve neglected due to my focus on a potential Labor majority is Hinchinbrook, which the LNP might lose to Katter’s Australian Party.
8.44pm. South Brisbane closer than I realised.
8.38pm. And now I’ve overlooked Burdekin, a technical Labor seat that’s a three-way heat on the primary vote. Labor only wins if One Nation comes third and delivers them a majority of preferences, which Labor can hope to happen because they have directed them their way.
8.31pm. Scratch that — I had overlooked Redlands. So Labor has probably four gains, maybe a fifth, perhaps six if it’s they who win Maiwar. Against that, four losses seem likely, and two possible. So it’s only the worst case scenario that costs Labor a net two seats and their majority.
8.19pm. The big question to me seems to be whether Labor gets a majority, so I’m tending to downplay features of the count such as the LNP’s apparent loss of Noosa to independent. With a net loss of two to cost them their majority, it now seems clear they will add to that Aspley, Bonney and probably Gaven; Pumicestone, which on this metric is an LNP seat, is too close to call. If they don’t win Pumicestone, the question is, do they lose five seats? It’s happened in Bundaberg and, it seems, Rockhampton. They seem to me at serious risk of losing Mirani and Thuringowa to One Nation. So if all that’s right, Labor needs to hang on in both Cook and Macalister if they don’t win Pumicestone, and either if they do. Caveat: I’m probably missing something.
8.18pm. Cook looks complicated, and not to be called. Labor 32.4%, One Nation 21.3%, Katter’s 20.0%, LNP 19.6%. Could go Katter’s or One Nation if the stars align.
8.15pm. Labor can no longer be regarded as home in Pumicestone either, so the potential window for minority status is a little wider now.
8.13pm. There was a lot of money late in the campaign on Hetty Johnston in Macalister, and it now emerges she is indeed a show of reducing the LNP to third, and overtaking Labor on preferences.
8.00pm. Thinking through the Labor situation again. Labor starts on 48 seats out of 93, a majority with one to spare. Gains: Aspley and Redlands. Possible gains: Bonney, Gaven, Maiwar. Losses: Bundaberg, Rockhampton. Possible further losses to One Nation: Mirani and Thuringowa. So there is a path to minority status there if everything goes wrong, but it’s a narrow one.
7.57pm. Labor has just poked ahead in Mundingburra on the ABC projection. It was earlier calling it for the LNP, which was another result that didn’t seem to gel.
7.45pm. The ABC has also retracted its call of Chatsworth for the LNP; and it now has Labor back in front in Bonney. Labor has almost certainly won Pumicestone, Redlands and Aspley; are in the hunt in Gaven; will win Maiwar if the Greens don’t. But they have lost Bundaberg (ABC says Pumicestone too but I think that’s wrong) to the LNP, Rockhampton to an independent; and they could lose Mirani to One Nation. I think they are now safe from One Nation in Maryborough and Thuringowa. They are apparently safe in South Brisbane. There are some confusing calls on the ABC computer that I don’t trust; if I’m right about those, I’m not seeing where Labor falls below 48.
7.44pm. A turn for the worse for Labor in Gold Coast counting: the ABC has gone back on its call of Theodore for Labor, Bonney is being called a notional LNP retain, and the Labor lead in Gaven has all but vanished.
7.43pm. The LNP is looking good to hold marginal Whitsunday, despite One Nation preferencing against them.
7.40pm. Pretty sure the ABC’s call of Murrumba for the LNP is a bug. The call of Callide for KAP appears to be based on a redundant two-party count, as the KAP is running fourth on the primary vote.
7.39pm. And now Aspley, where early results were discouraging for Labor, is lineball as well.
7.38pm. Labor are starting to find the seats they need: well ahead in Redlands.
7.36pm. The ABC making some big calls for Labor on the Gold Coast: Gaven and Theodore.
7.34pm. So Maiwar could go either Greens or Labor, but not LNP.
7.32pm. Independent Sandra Bolton perhaps coming from nowhere (to me at least) and perhaps winning Noosa, with less than 5% counted. South Brisbane still close.
7.28pm. One Nation looking better in Thuringowa: Katter preferences should get them over the LNP, and LNP preferences might then do it for them. So I’m seeing potential One Nation ones in Mirani, Maryborough and now Thuringowa, all at the expense of Labor. With Labor also looking to lose Bundaberg, they will need to find at least a handful of seats in the south-east. I’m seeing three so far — but the situation is, to say the least, fluid.
7.26pm. Was about to say I didn’t trust the ABC’s call of Mundingburra for the LNP, and it’s now switched to Labor ahead. This looks like a fizzer for One Nation.
7.19pm. ABC computer now calling Maiwar, Chatsworth and Glass House for Labor. But they’re losing Bundaberg to the LNP, and trailing One Nation in Maryborough and possibly Mirani.
7.18pm. Tim Nicholls cutting it fine in Clayfield: 27.8% counted, 6.0% swing, 6.6% margin.
7.16pm. The ABC’s call of Callide for KAP is, I think it’s fair to say, a false alarm.
7.15pm. ABC calling Bundaberg an LNP gain from Labor.
7.12pm. Some encouraging signs for Labor on the Gold Coast: big swing in unwinnable Broadwater, early lead in Gaven.
7.11pm. LNP looking good in Lockyer, Condamine, Gregory, Hinchinbrook and Nanango, and they should be okay in Gympie. Mirani and Maryborough might go to One Nation, but I’m not seeing any others.
7.08pm. ABC computer calling Maryborough for One Nation. However, this is based on a very small number of two-party votes (492 of them), when Labor is well ahead on the much more advanced primary vote count.
7.06pm. Good early result for Labor in Chatsworth, defying my earlier talk of a subdued swing in LNP-held seats in Brisbane.
7.04pm. A close three-way result in Burdekin. If Labor goes out, LNP wins. If LNP goes out, One Nation wins. If One Nation goes out, hard to say.
7.03pm. With 7% counted, Labor looking precarious in Bundaberg, perhaps to be sunk by preferences from third-placed One Nation.
7.00pm. Steve Dickson doesn’t look like retaining Buderim for One Nation; primary vote looking good for LNP.
6.58pm. Antony Green now confirming solid flow of Labor preferences to LNP in Lockyer.
6.57pm. One Nation have fallen to second in Gympie; could still win Mirani on LNP preferences. The ABC computer is calling Mirani for Labor, but it’s doing so on an Labor-versus-LNP basis. We will have to wait on a preference count tomorrow to know what’s really happening here.
6.51pm. Labor seems to be picking up swings in metropolitan seats it already holds, but not so much in LNP seats: early swing to LNP in Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands, small swing to LNP with over 10% counted in Everton.
6.48pm. Only about 300 votes, but preferences in Lockyer suggest Labor is quite heavily favouring the LNP over One Nation, by 64-36.
6.46pm. With over 10% of the primary vote counted, One Nation still not looking all that strong in Lockyer.
6.45pm. No booths from the town yet, but One Nation leads the early count in Gympie.
6.42pm. First booth in Rockhampton is encouraging for Margaret Strelow: she’s clear of the LNP and could win with their preferences.
6.40pm. One Nation looking dangerous in Mirani: with 6% counted, they’re well clear of the LNP and looking well placed to win on their preferences.
6.34pm. The LNP are ahead of One Nation in Lockyer and Burnett, but it’s hard to work out what preferences are doing.
6.27pm. We have nearly 2000 votes in from places where One Nation would be expected to poll very strongly, and they’re on 23.4%, which is perhaps a bit on the lower side.
6.15pm. More on that Nine exit poll in the Sydney Morning Herald (thanks ltep):
The Nine Network/Galaxy exit poll of 1700 people across 18 seats in metropolitan and regional Queensland suggested Ms Palaszczuk will edge out Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls and win 51 seats, enough to form a majority government in the expanded 93-member parliament.
The poll suggested that Labor led the LNP 52-48 in the two-party preferred vote, a result in line with recently published opinion polls; expected Labor losses in regional centres such as Townsville will be offset by gains in the major population centre of south-east Queensland.
6.10pm. An exit poll for Nine predicts a Labor win, but that’s all I can tell you about it. A ReachTEL poll for Sky News apparently has it at 52-48 – I believe this is a regular ReachTEL poll that was conducted today, rather than an exit poll proper.
6pm. Polling has closed, so let the live coverage begin. This being Queensland, we should expect a flurry of small regional booths in fairly shortly.
Let’s Go Bronco!
D
From the Oz
‘Hanson sparks confusion
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s high-profile campaigning in the state election has confused voters, with reports some residents are demanding to know why they have been unable to vote for the federal senator.
Voters in Ipswich have turned up to polling booths in Ipswich and Bundamba, west of Brisbane, expecting to find her name on the ballot paper, local newspaper the Queensland Times reports.
“I’ve just been up to the polls to vote for One Nation and it appears they’ve left Pauline Hanson off the list,” one angry resident was quoted as saying. “This is atrocious the way they have left the candidate out of this electorate off the list.”
Booth workers said “numerous” people had turned up declaring: “I’m voting for Hanson” as they headed inside to cast their ballots.’
Happy election night all – rituals all going.
Mood on ABC panel seemingly fairly positive for Labor and a little less for LNP. Of course, everyone is hedging bets.
The ALP Environment minister seems a bit nervous on the ABC TV coverage
This story contains a little about the Nine exit poll:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/palaszczuk-in-the-box-seat-as-coalition-sweats-on-queensland-election-result-20171125-gzsqwl.html
The Nine Network/Galaxy exit poll of 1700 people across 18 seats in metropolitan and regional Queensland suggested Ms Palaszczuk will edge out Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls and win 51 seats, enough to form a majority government in the expanded 93-member parliament.
The poll suggested that Labor led the LNP 52-48 in the two-party preferred vote, a result in line with recently published opinion polls; expected Labor losses in regional centres such as Townsville will be offset by gains in the major population centre of south-east Queensland.
Nine exit poll details: https://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/11/25/18/26/queensland-election-exclusive-exit-poll-predicts-labor-return
The poll found a two-party preferred figure of 52 percent for Labor and 48 percent for the Liberal National Party (LNP) – representing a swing to Labor of just 0.9 percentage points since the last election.
According to the poll, Labor has 37 percent of the primary vote while the LNP has 35 percent after slipping by more than six percentage points since the last election.
While statewide support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is at 13 percent, it is 22 percent in regional Queensland.
When it comes down to LNP versus One Nation candidates, Labor preferences will likely elect the LNP candidate.
One Nation preferences will split 60-40 to LNP and Labor, the poll found.
Support for the Greens is apparently at nine percent – a slight rise since the last election.
The usual strong flow of preferences from Greens to Labor was confirmed by the poll, with an 80-20 split between Labor and the LNP.
Primary support for other minor parties and Independents is at six percent, including two percent for Katter’s Australian Party.
If the swing to Labor were uniform, the party could pick up as many as 51 seats in the newly 93-seat Parliament.
However, the Galaxy poll found the swing would not be consistent – instead, it predicted a three-percentage point swing to Labor in south-east Queensland and a two-percentage point swing against Labor in the rest of the state.
This means seats including Bundaberg, Maryborough, Burdekin and Mundingburra will be at at serious risk for Labor.
Laura Jeyes just reported some feedback from the phones: there is dissatisfaction with Nicholl’s campaign. Someone noted the Labor billboards which had Nicholls pictured with Newman. The view was that he should have dissociated himself more vigorously from Newman earlier in the campaign.
HI MOFOS
I THINK THE REAL WINNER IS STEVE SMITH.
“I THINK THE REAL WINNER IS STEVE SMITH.”
Shush now – the grown ups are talking.
Oh goody, ShowsOn is back.
[]Shush now – the grown ups are talking.]
MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATE
PISS OFF.
Steve Rogers from the Courier Mail interviwed on Sky: ‘…they struggled to define how Nichollas is different from Newman…’. They linked him to being Treasurer for the Newman Government he could not get out from under it.
“PISS OFF.”
Yeah, nah. 😀
Rogers now rattling on about the Queensland debt.
ABC gives us ‘analysis’ from twitter, and will do the same from facebook.
*blinks*
First booth. Currumbin. A LNP retain.
Is there a live count by the Queensland electoral authority, i can find their page, cant see an results updating.
(edit frenzy)
ABC projecting PHON to get 21% !!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/
Early days, but that would give them a lot of seats.
BW:
The Newman connection was always going to be damaging to Nicholls. The big problem for him was that, being treasurer, he was directly responsible for so many of the decisions that made Newman so unpopular. Even if he’d spent the entire campaign apologizing for his actions in government and dragging Newman’s name through the mud, it still would have dogged him.
I think the answer for the LNP would have been just not to elect him as leader in the first place. I guess they just assumed the electorate’s memories would have been short enough to forget about it – and to be fair, voters’ memories often are!
Very early, pretty rural booths. Lockyer is surprising though.
I guess 21% is matching what the polls said PHON would get in the regional seats, which the early counting is probably representing.
AL
Yep.
There is already talk about splitting the LNP back into two parties.
Beattie just now predicting that a slew of seats would turn into contests between Labor and PHONey candidates.
BREAKING: From The Guardian:
BW:
And here I was thinking we would have seen them become the Liberal National One Nation Katter’s Australian Party in a few years time.
From the guardian
As usual I am irritated that the ABC is somehow giving the LNP 6 seats already despite no seat being above 3% counted. I wish the computer would just give things a bit more time.
David Chrisafull saying that they have to confront the way they engage with the people.
I have to say that the ‘jokes’ corner on the ABC coverage should be moved to ABC2……
The ABC’s Facebook Live stuff is embarrassing. Reminds me of the “How do you do, fellow kids?” Steve Buscemi meme.
Sky panel predicting Lockyer a LNP hold.
Buderim, early jump in grn vote.
a/c early Gladstone swing to Labor 11.79&… but the booths are highly variable.
Mansfield very early high Greens vote.
Early days, Glasshouse is a possible Labor gain.
As the first seat to hit 10% counted, ABC computer predicting an LNP hold in Lockyer.
Mirani looks like a PHON gain.
Shit Canavan is making the ABC coverage unwatchable.
Credlin is talking about a shy Tory effect in relation to polling, especially in relation to PHON votes.
Yes the ABC Facebook live thing is totally embarrassing.
The Qld environment minister said Adani was a distraction for the party.
Ummm….
High early Green votes is interesting.
Sky predicting Steve Dickhe…, I mean Dickson will lose Buderim:
😆
The Sky panel is one of the better election night panels, IMO. The discussion is mostly very polite, quite collegiate and there are scads of interesting insights.
Speers is doing his usual excellent job of chairing the meeting.
DG
What Party will win that seat?
[DG
What Party will win that seat?]
Probably Liberal via Labor preferences.
Buderim, the ginger capital of Queensland, has fallen out with the ginger party
BW
LNP ahead on primaries thus far (according to the video embedded in the tweet).
Why have the ABC got 2 LNP commentators on the panel, both equally obnoxious (and they wonder why people are turned off politicians?), a federal LNP Senator and Queensland State MP, but only one Labor State MP?
Oh wait, it’s the ABC.
DG
Yuck