The Courier-Mail has a final Galaxy poll for the campaign, which records Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead of three weeks ago. Beyond that, the main point of interest is a six point drop in the One Nation vote to 12%, with Labor up two to 37%, the LNP up three to 35%, and the Greens steady on 9%.
There are also breakdowns between regional and south-east Queensland, with the former showing support for One Nation at 20%, the LNP on 33% (down from 40.2% in 2015), Labor on 30% (down from 33.9%) the Greens on 5% (down from 5.1%), and the LNP leading 52-48 on two-party preferred (50.9-49.1). In south-east Queensland, Labor leads 54-46, compared with 52.3-47.7 in 2015, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up from 39.5%), LNP 36% (down from 41.9%), Greens 12% (up from 10.2%) and One Nation 8%.
The sample was “more than 1500” – I’m guessing the field work was Wednesday and Thursday.
Plus, I cannot emphasise this enough – regardless of the CPV change and the confusion surrounding it; all things being even, ALP are ahead due to Sophomore Surge. LNP will need a 2PP, statewide, I estimate, around 50.8-51.2 to win Government due to SS.
Kasey:
The Sophomore Surge is reflected in 2PP values, and it’ll be even more so in this one because the ALP only had 7 members before the last election, so almost 83% of them will be benefiting from it. I wouldn’t expect a huge difference between 2PP and seat count as a result (the Sophomore Surge generally results in non-indicative 2PP because it manifests in marginal seats that need to be held to keep power and that’s unlikely to be a major factor this time around).
“Pretty surprised Emerson didn’t get parachuted to a safer seat.”
If it was to happen it wouldn’t be in Brisbane. Apart from Clayfield and Moggill there is not too much available in terms of safe state seats for the LNP. LNP lack of seats in Brisbane suggests they really can’t afford giving up seats that they would have a better chance if the incumbent re-contested.
There was a report in the Courier Mail before the last state election the LNP were considering moving either Tim Mander or Ian Walker to Moggill to protect them from potentially losing their seats.
David Crisafulli moved to Gold Coast from Townsville because of the better chance of finding a safe seat to stand in rather then looking in Brisbane.
I’m pleased to have got the last Qld election correct (prediction should be in the archive of the PB comments). So I’ll have another go..
One Nation. Predict they will win only one seat (Maryborough). It appears they were headed for victory in Thuringowa and Logan but the ALP and LNP seem to have done a deal whereby (and this is only my surmation) LNP will preference the ALP in these two and in return the ALP will ensure their HTV cards are widely distrubuted in the seats where the LNP is under threat. I believe the strongest ON threats to the LNP are in Callide, Nanango, Burnett, Hinchinbrook, Lockyer and Gympie. These are the only sitting LNP seats where the ON vote will come close to equaling or exceeding the LNP primary vote.
Aside from those listed above, seats to watch for ON will necesesarily be ALP held. They would include Bundaberg, Ipswich West, Keppel, Mirani, Mulgrave, Kurwongbah and Pumicestone where ON will or might manage to come ahead of the LNP and gain access to their preferences. Apart from the first two, these are outside chances though.
Primary vote will have a 13 in front of it (given that they are not running in 32 electorates I’d discount 25% off their actual statewide support)
ALP. Have been the main beneficiaries of the ON decisions on preferences:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/73944/WHOLE-OF-STATE-PAULINE-HANSONS-ONE-NATION-1.pdf
Its argued that ON can’t deliver on their preferences, but surely both main parties will ensure ON has sufficient ‘volunteers’ to cover the electorates where they benefit.
ALP Gains due to or assisted by ON preferences: Whitsunday, Toowoomba North, Glasshouse, Redlands + Burdekin, Mansfield, Mt Ommaney (notational ALP)
Other ALP Gains: Bonney
ALP Losses: Maryborough (ONP), Bundaberg (LNP), Mundingburra (LNP)
That gives the ALP 50, KAP 2, ON 1, LNP 40. I actually think the ALP will wind up with a couple more than this as there are still more vulnerable seats on the LNP side…Pumicestone, Everton, Aspley, Gaven, Theodore, Maiwar.
The Greens will not win South Brisbane. Hetty Johnston could be an upset in Macallister.
No insider knowledge, just my own predictions, based on the available info.
Yeah, the Greens won’t win South Brisbane without either an ALP -> Green swing larger than I’m expecting or the Liberal voters being much less wed to party HTV than is traditionally the case, ditto McConnel (Grace is probably an easier target than Trad for the Greens in a close race but I think the lead is still too large) . I think their best shot is Maiwar, as that could potentially come down to Lib vs Green 2PP.
Posted by Matt31 in the main thread:
It all still hangs on the One Nation factor, but I am starting to feel very confident.
Elaugaufein:
I think your correct re the Greens. South Brisbane and especially O’Connell both seem out of reach to me, at least this time around. If they are going to win a seat, Maiwar’s probably the one.
New thread.