The Courier-Mail has a final Galaxy poll for the campaign, which records Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead of three weeks ago. Beyond that, the main point of interest is a six point drop in the One Nation vote to 12%, with Labor up two to 37%, the LNP up three to 35%, and the Greens steady on 9%.
There are also breakdowns between regional and south-east Queensland, with the former showing support for One Nation at 20%, the LNP on 33% (down from 40.2% in 2015), Labor on 30% (down from 33.9%) the Greens on 5% (down from 5.1%), and the LNP leading 52-48 on two-party preferred (50.9-49.1). In south-east Queensland, Labor leads 54-46, compared with 52.3-47.7 in 2015, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up from 39.5%), LNP 36% (down from 41.9%), Greens 12% (up from 10.2%) and One Nation 8%.
The sample was “more than 1500” – I’m guessing the field work was Wednesday and Thursday.
Does this mean they can get over the line?
If that’s accurate that’s really bad news for PHON. 20% primary makes it very hard (though you could theoretically juuuust make it on preferences) to win a three corner contest let alone a clear PHON vs LNP one (or PHON vs Lab). Seat by seat variation in the vote would likely see them still picking up some seats but it would put the double digits firmly out of reach, and I think it would make even 5 unlikely.
You can really see the effect of PHON in the regions where both parties are massively down on primaries. Though the LNP seem to be losing 1.75x as much as Labor (suggesting that PHON is drawing 7/11 from LNP to 4/11 from Labor in terms of base). Labour’s down 3.9% on Primary but only 1% on 2PP too, that’s good news for Labor in Lib vs Labor contests. I’m interested that major party primary is only down 11.2% in the regions, that suggests that PHON has picked up nearly all the smaller right wing votes to be at 20% over all.
@SilentMajority
Yeah, it probably does. If that’s accurate PHON probably isn’t going to take enough Labor seats to overcome the ALPs 2PP lead. They’ll just cannibalize the LNP. Effectively a rerun of when PHON first became a major force and Beattie won minority government of SE corner gains.
Sounds like just enough for the ALP.
One Nation fielding lots of candidates but the more they are exposed to the public the less they are liked.
Hanson seems to have visited lots of electorates with Malcolm ‘I always believed’ Roberts looking on admiringly while she admits doesn’t know the One Nation candidates name. She claims that with 60 or so candidates it’s hard to remember. Ashby should try writing the candidates name on the palm of her hand as she goes from electorate to electorate.
If she can remember the candidates name she gets surprised by things like the candidate owns a ‘sex shop’. Her candidates seem to just be anyone who holds up their hand and is prepared to cough up the money to fund her.
That the ‘State Leader’ of One Nation doesn’t appear with her looks ‘strange’ to say the least.
A poster on this blog suggested about two weeks ago that the election might come down to whether One Nation falls apart before or after the election day. That looks like being true.
Go Labor … with a little bit of reservation. Politics in Qld is definitely different but with many of the LNP candidates just being recycled from the previous disastrous Newman Government they don’t deserve to win. Palaszczuk may look to be a totally different politician if Labor can wins this election and then Labor becomes the federal government.
Pollbludger just ate my comment …
It looks like Labor could just make it on Saturday. Probably a couple of counting days before we know the final results.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-24/political-donations-in-queensland-revealed-in-real-time/9145608
Donation disclosures in Queensland is almost as real-time as you can get, and I think this should be replicated elsewhere.
Not sure 2PP will be that useful an indicator given changes with PHON and mandatory preferencing.
Article states that since the last election overall LNP primary has reduced from 41.3 to 35 overall, ALP steady. No matter which way preferences go, thats a pretty big uphill battle for LNP.
In the regions LNP primary has reduced from 40.2 to 33, ALP from 33.9 to 30, meaning others (including PHON) have increased by 11.1, from 25.9 to 37 since the last election.
This is where preferences will make a big difference, ALP has to increase their share of that 37 by 3.9 to get back to even, LNP has to increase it by 7.2 to get back to even.
If ALP can get 35% of (mandatory) preferences it will make it hard for LNP in regions.
However i suspect the regional votes really needs to be broken down to Provincial and Rural to really see whats going in, it looks like regional cities are different to regional areas.
Will be interesting to watch, keep in mind QLD has the most federal marginal seats.
CTar1
You raise an interesting point about AP. While its hard to deny the LNP attempts to paint AP and her government as a “do-little,lazy government” one has to consider that : 1. Her Party didn’t expect to win in 2015, 2. The team she inherited after the Newman wipeout left her with precious little experience and unknown abilities, 3. She inherited several potential problems with some teammembers, particularly in Nth Qld and in Ipswich and later Pumicestone. 4. Her wafer-thin majority was always going to limit what she could achieve.
Given that, she was always going to find it difficult. Yet, she and her government survived to make this election a close one.
So, this election is going to be vitally important in many ways.
With the Qld economy beginning to grow, its a good time to be in government. The upcoming Commonwealth Games will be great window-dressing for the winners and, the probable ALP victory federally could certainly be very good news for AP if she wins.
This election will also be crucial for Tim Nicholls. Lose and he’s gone as LNP leader. Win and his future is assured. But the prospect of a future Federal Labor government wouldn’t be filling his head with hope.
Yes , AP may, if she wins, be a very different political animal, given all that had happened and could happen. We live in interesting times.
> “the probable ALP victory federally could certainly be very good news for AP if she wins.”
Actually, it would be terrible news for AP if Shorten becomes PM. Most likely, Qld ALP will then lose the next State election.
On the other hand, if Shorten loses, then AP has an excellent chance to win the next Qld election.
There is a strong tendency in Australian politics for state election swing voters to vote for whichever party is currently in opposition federally. An example was how John Brumby lost the 2010 Victorian state election, even though he started the campaign ahead in the polls, and Victoria is the strongest state for the ALP, and Gillard was very popular in Victoria at that time.
Cities / Towns are almost always less conservative (with bigger cities / towns having a greater effect) . I don’t think separating out cities vs other would be useful though. Very few Queensland cities are big enough to be electorates independent of their surrounds.
Knocking out the SE corner Brisbane / Sunshine Coast / Gold Coast there’s only 5 or 6 cities (Bundaberg and Hervey Bay are both sort of ambiguous edge cases) (and ~a little bit over twice that in electorates) where the cities are “isolated” or clearly dominant.
You’d more need to divide it up into electorates without significant cities / electorates with significant cities. And you’d probably want to isolate North Queensland , from South West and Central Queensland.
Primaries
ALP – 37
LNP – 35
GRN – 9
ONP – 12
KAP – 2
OTH – 5
SEQ Primary
ALP – 40
LNP – 36
GRN – 12
ONP – 8
OTH – 4
Regional QLD Primary
ALP – 30
LNP – 33
GRN – 5
ONP – 20
KAP – 5
OTH – 7
Tetsujin @ #8 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 6:49 am
I think Kevin Bonham has pretty much debunked this as a predictor.
Onebobsworth @ #7 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 6:42 am
I don’t buy the line that the ALP Qld government has been a do-nothing government. It’s undone a lot of damage from the Newman period and progressed quite a lot of other issues, even though some of them are still working their way through the system, such a abortion law reform which is a long festering sore in Queensland. It’s been very consultative, partly because forced to be by its minority situation, but this has led to some good outcomes. It’s also started to revive TAFE, improve mental health services, fund cross river rail from state funds, etc, etc.
I think it was also the first Australian ministry with a majority of women.
What a shock. I totally believed that ON were going to win a thousand seats because the main stream media forecast it.
Instead, exactly the same thing is happening to them that happened in WA.
Surely nobody could have seen this coming?!?!
(Very much sarcasm)
In particular given the differences in Queensland, it doesn’t seem a problem if the federal government has the same complexion as the state.
If returned AP, will rise or fall on her own terms, one which will be how much she stands against the federal government, regardless of if they are Labor.
> “I think Kevin Bonham has pretty much debunked this as a predictor.”
No he hasn’t.
There was a blog post that he did, around the time of the last Queensland election, where he analysed how much a state suffered suffered on average in 2PP terms, when the same party was in government federally.
There are so many other examples of State parties doing really well when they are in opposition federally.
Also remember that Shorten is unpopular & specially unpopular in Queensland. PM Shorten will only hurt Qld ALP at the next state election.
From the front page of the GG.
‘Palaszczuk was on the verge of clinging to power’
Also she has launched an ‘assault on the wealthy ‘.
Somehow I think they are biased.
“I think Kevin Bonham has pretty much debunked this as a predictor.”
Not sure how to leave a quote so apologies for that, but if I recall correctly, he debunked state incumbents dragging down the federal party, but did show correlation between federal incumbents and state parties losing elections.
Tetsujin
Evidence that Shorten is unpopular in Queensland?
I don’t think Shorten is personally more unpopular here than anywhere else outside Vic because of Bill Shorten.
Animosity towards Shorten of greater in Qld will be related to some group he’s tied too.
Tim Nicholls just about pulled a Steven Marshall on Sunrise and told voters to vote for their local “LNP, One- uh, LNP candidate!”
Federal governments are a big drag on state governments, see:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/what-kills-state-governments-age-or.html
I haven’t looked at state governments being a drag on federal. I intend to analyse this comprehensively at some stage.
Note that there is not a relationship between federal government unpopularity and the success of the opposing party at state elections, although you’d expect there to be one. Unpopular federal governments drag down their own side.
Yeah, I haven’t seen anything to indicate that Shorten is any more or less popular here than anywhere else in the country.
That’s quite an uplifting poll. I’m becoming more confident that Labor can pull off a win this time around. I remain a bit ambivalent about the Palasczuk government – I certainly don’t buy the LNP line that they’ve been a “do nothing” government, rather I just have strong reservations about some of the things they have done – but I’d happily live a lifetime under QLD Labor if it spares us a return to the LNP or the nightmare of a LNP/ON coalition.
One Nation’s support does seem to have collapsed a bit in the final stretch. Once again, their woeful candidate vetting (well, total lack-thereof) has stuffed them, and I think the succession of screw-ups on the campaign trail is finally making an impact. I can’t see them picking up more than 3 or 4 seats if they do indeed poll around 12% on the day.
Fingers crossed.
Antony Green reckons Labor will probably win:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-24/queensland-election-antony-green-answers-questions/9185002
I suggest that it’s not SEQ vs region. It is Brisbane vs Not Brisbane where Brisbane = BCC. This means that the good residents of Logan (think Blacktown/Dandenong/Munno Para/Rockingham) see themselves as Not Brisbane. They will therefore vote FOR a party supporting a dam in North Queensland and against a party supporting an SEQ rail project because the latter involves construction in (boo! hiss!) Brisbane and the former jobs for (yay!) regions.
Maybe the magic words for the Gold Coast really is “Stability, Stability, Stability.”
Worked last time Labor did it….seemingly it’s working this time too. lol!
From the Antony Green Interview:
ABC: Do you think the Greens will get in in South Brisbane?
AG: For the Greens to win South Brisbane then the only published opinion poll has to be wrong and LNP voters have to not follow the LNP how-to-vote card otherwise Labor will win the seat easily.
Wasn’t the only published poll in South Brisbane 51 – 49 in favour of the Greens?
@TheGuyAskingAboutCostings
I came across this:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/23/costings-and-meerkats-queensland-parties-in-sync-in-final-stretch
Not sure how good it’ll be for you – but it’s something.
“”Also remember that Shorten is unpopular “”
He wont be if he wins the election!.
With a 37% primary vote for the ALP it will still be touch and go if the party will get a majority. Obviously it will depend on preference flows.
One way or the other hopefully queenslanders elect a majority government.
@MarkT, I’m not so sure. With PHON and the large area of Northern QLD taking a *fair* share of the LNP/PHON vote (as well as KAP, cant forget them)… I think 37% primary is a fair position to be in.
A winnable position.
On the other hand, I look at the seats, I look at the campaign, I see where PHON is strong, where LNP is strong…. there just isn’t a route (that I can see) for them to form majority from where they are. ALP on the other hand? They have a clear route to both a majority government (hinges on a couple seats like Maiwar etc but I’ve already given that to either ALP/GRN living here and seeing the piss poor campaigning of the Shadow Treasurer here) OR an informal coalition with the Greens to form Government.
Plus, we need to look at the independents. They’ve already shown their hand and that was to help support the ALP and their policies. Abortion for example, but supply and confidence in parliament.
Pretty surprised Emerson didn’t get parachuted to a safer seat.
Also, just something interesting for those of you who assume a causational relationship between donations and election results:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-24/political-donations-in-queensland-revealed-in-real-time/9145608
While I agree it can tend to be a good indicator Federally, it just holds no real water in state elections, for whatever reason. LNP are receiving double the amount of donations, but are looking in trouble right now. Whilst Greens + ALP are getting a lot less but are seemingly using those resources a lot better.
@Seth
I reckon they’re going to put him top of the ticket for the Senate. Replace Brandis.
I’m thinking the election will look something like this:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-24/political-donations-in-queensland-revealed-in-real-time/9145608
With Maiwar provisionally ALP/Greens. Then there are a couple of other custom overrides I’d usually make, but I don’t have the time. Plus also factoring in PHON/LNP battles etc.
It will be no blowout, but that’s the route I see the ALP getting to government with (obviously this is assuming a uniform swing (which never happens) but, it’s the best I can do with the calculator as it is).
Important to note that Annastacia has NOT said that she won’t work with KAP, Greens and Independents to form Government.
She’s only ruled out PHON, and there’s really no way Labor could have an arrangement with PHON – Branch members and unions would be in open revolt.
Labor has also abandoned “no new taxes” this election, so has the scope to restructure th tax system if they win government.
The Electoral Commission of Queensland has reported more than 600,000 pre-poll votes of Queensland’s 3.1 million eligible voters already returning their ballots
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/24/queensland-election-tim-nicholls-stops-just-short-of-telling-voters-to-support-lnp-one-nation
@Pegasus They’re all going to the Ashes aren’t they? 😛
i’m in toowoomba north – marginal LNP (1.6’ish). ONP no threat to the seat, but have preferenced the sitting LNP member Watts behind ALP’s Kerry Shine (former A-G). i’ve no head for numbers but my gut tells me this could make for a challenging LNP retain, depending how ONP poll.
thoughts?
Peter Brent explaining the “drop” in support for ON
Peter BrentVerified account
@mumbletwits
“If Galaxy now only includes PHON in question in seats they’re running in, but included in every seat in the last poll, that would explain the drop in support.
It turns out that, yes, Galaxy latest poll PHON (12%) numbers only in electorates they are standing in. Earlier 18% was across the whole state.
In other words, Galaxy does NOT show a collapse in PHON support.”
I am in a strong LNP regional electorate and will be voting for the incumbent LNP member, mainly because the seat has been held by One Nation in the past. The current member is a good local rep and most definitely the lesser of two evils. There is no way that an ALP candidate will ever win this seat. Indeed, at the last election when everything went pear shaped for the LNP, the local member here actually achieved a swing towards her.
and then this conversation between Peter Brent, Stephen Luntz and Ben Raue
Stephen Luntz
@sluntz
Replying to @mumbletwits
I question that. If the places they are not running are mostly Brisbane electorates where their vote would be low (say average 6%) then taking those out only accounts for a third of the fall. 18% to 14% not as dramatic as to 12%, but still probably statistically significant
Peter BrentVerified account
@mumbletwits
Peter Brent Retweeted Stephen Luntz
Good point. For there to have been no drop in support for PHON, you’d have to assume they also polled 18% across all those seats they’re not running in. Which is very unlikely. So Galaxy poll suggests a drop, perhaps as much as 4%.
Ben Raue
@benraue
Replying to @mumbletwits
it is a good point, but not all the seats without ON candidates are bad areas for them.
@Kasey….I hope your analysis proves right.
I will be watching with interest from Melbourne on Saturday.
I did live in Brisbane for six years.
PHON…I just hope they do much much worse than expected. They are a useless bunch of clowns and misfits. If you look at their policies just nonsensical and certainly undeliverable.
And that women….if I was standing where the Labor candidate for Hervey Bay was, I would give her the finger also.
I am in a strong LNP regional electorate and will be voting for the incumbent LNP member, mainly because the seat has been held by One Nation in the past. The current member is a good local rep and most definitely the lesser of two evils. There is no way that an ALP candidate will ever win this seat. Indeed, at the last election when everything went pear shaped for the LNP, the local member here actually achieved a swing towards her.
William
I guess Galaxy changing their method makes it hard for you to track? How will you feed these results into the poll tracker?
I doubt Galaxy are doing that. Electorate polls show the polling companies have a pretty loose grip on who lives in what electorate so surely that could really corrupt their sample.
Galaxy are doing that. Senate voting patterns suggest they would have had One Nation on 15% if the response option had been available to all respondents — assuming nobody declined to exercise that option out of awareness that they wouldn’t have a One Nation candidate to vote for.
Ronzy, the point of preferential voting is that you can vote for someone who has no chance of winning the seat, if in a perfect world you would like them to win. Then as long as you give a higher preference (lower number) to the LNP person than the ON person you’re still keeping the ratbags out. Easy, really.
Thanks William
That Nicholls slip-up soundbite will play very poorly when run in the news tonight. Not the type of thing you want dropping the night before polling day. His facial expression afterwards almost as bad as the blunder itself.
I’d imagine it will push a decent amount of whats left of the undecideds in SEQ to Labor.
@Johnee
I could see that… but then I feel that would be cancelled out by the postals where the LNP were doing better in SEQ. So…maybe it cancels out the postals affect?