Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. grimace

    Thanks for reply. 🙂
    My edit button returned and it seems that was when the quote button disappeared, so I don’t have one.

    Discrimination. Wah!!

  2. If Mal refers LAB mps, im not sure if there would be enought support in the senate for Lab to refer Lib/Nat senators.

    The Grns may hold back on convention and I dont see the remains of NXT being that keen (other than a single ome for Sharkie)

    Lambie I dont know given she has issues.

  3. ratsak @ #1481 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 5:38 pm

    It’s been pretty well established that the “reasonable efforts” test does not apply for the UK, NZ etc. It’s only for countries that won’t cooperate with your request to renounce citizenship.

    I don’t think that’s established at all. But we’re going to find out definitively soon enough.

    Agree. There have been many assertions that “reasonable steps” only apply in the case of a deliberately frustrating/malicious foreign power. However there’s no actual precedent of a candidate who successfully took the proper steps prior to nominating but then didn’t receive their final confirmation until some time afterwards.

    Nothing is established until the HC rules on such a case.

    Everyone should just refer everyone else. It’ll be faster and easier that way.

  4. What this latest crisis shows is Turnbull’s lack of strategy, coherent plan or a message to sell.

    Shorten is just waiting for th whole facade to come crashing down.

  5. Shorten is playing this imbecile like a fiddle.

    Trumble’s ego leads him to do stupid things at the best of times.

    Get him angry (not that it’s tough) and watch him self destruct.

    Labor will be delighted if it’s to be MAD. They have far less to lose and they know it.

  6. Agree
    Dream on.

    Change to s44 has no chance whatsoever and would openup jinoism and hate speech that makes the SSM “survey” seem minor.

  7. grimace @ #1494 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 6:44 pm

    lizzie @ #1482 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 3:31 pm

    grimace

    Could you tell me how you get the black lines outside your quoted text, pls?
    Do you have to type blockquote each time?

    That’s a very good question and I’m glad you’ve asked it. If I knew the answer I’d tell you.

    I’ve installed C+ and there is a “quote” button on the bottom left hand side of everybody’s post. The black lines appear as some part of that process. I’m sorry I could not be more helpful.

    The black lines are, as you are aware, what used to be the old “blockquote” whereby the text would be displaced to the right.

    Please bear with me while I get my coffee.

    I know that you use C+, which I regard as essential when interacting with others.

    If you “Quote” a post you can then look in the “leave a replay box” which will show you exactly how “blockquote” and “/blockquote” are used.

    In addition (using C+) when typing an original message, should you wish to use the “blockquote” function to highlight your message, you have the option, instead of the usual form of HTML blockquote, of simply typing the square opining bracket

    and continuing until you have finished your text requiring hightlight when you would then type the closing square bracket, thus

    And so it goes.

    I hope this is clear. If not I could consult with Brown Bear and endeavour to help.

    ♫Adieu, kind friend adieu, ♫I can no longer …. with you…….♫♪♫
    ☮☕

    If your quote button has disappeared then the square bracket information may be of help, otherwise the old HTML blockquote, /blockquote will work and give the indented text with the black line.

    I have both Firefox and Chrome running on my main computer and I find it useful to compare them from time to time.
    Toodles. I am not off to bed for a while should you wish to say rude/kind words.

  8. I may be repeating ratsak and co. But Turnbull really isn’t very good.

    As leader of the largest non-labor party, he would have been told many times ‘don’t stuff things up’.
    The priority for any leader of the Liberal party is to keep the ALP out of office. Second is tax cuts for the wealthy and by extension, businesses.
    All other issues are a distant third if that.

    All Turnbull had to do was to present a nice leader like face, keep the ALP out of office and cut taxes. Members would have said this directly to him at party functions and his colleagues regularly but probably more tact.

    For a man like him with a nice suit, pronounced ‘PM for life’ back in September 2015, it shouldn’t have been that difficult.

  9. Dean Smith’s marriage amendment bill is a demoralising compromise that would set a dangerous precedent

    The exemptions in the Smith bill are also demeaning to LGBTI couples.

    By pretending to protect “religious freedom”, these exemptions say that our marriages will pose some kind of unique threat to religion, to freedom and to marriage.

    For these reasons, such exemptions were not inserted in any other country that has achieved marriage equality, including those such as the UK, New Zealand and Germany that achieved it under conservative governments.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/we-deserve-a-resounding-yes-for-marriage-equality-not-half-measures

  10. Does a referral to the HC by a party of one of its own or other parties members require the consent of either or both Houses of Parliament?

  11. Goodness me Rebekah Sharkie the latest under a S44 cloud.

    It just gets more and more farcical. Constitutional reform is essential in my view – bring our federal parliament into the 21st century.

  12. Section 44 solves a problem that we don’t have and if we had it then it would not actually solve the problem. The compliance regime is so ineffective that it has been ignored for decades, but that does not really matter because the problem that it is supposed to solve is not actually in any way a problem. The only way out of the impasse is to refer every member to the high court after every election, though this only solves part of the problem (that we don’t actually have) in that it is illegal to sit as a member, but it is also illegal to nominate, but there is no judicial jurastiction that will adjudicate that particular transgression of the constitution.
    So really I can’t see why we need to change section 44 and I can’t see anyone agreeing to change it, because it works so well now.

  13. The idea that a PM in Trumble’s political position could survive unilaterally referring opposition and crossbench members but protect his own with far less arguable cases is so stupid even Abbott wouldn’t consider it.

    So it’s almost certainly Brian’s cunning plan.

  14. Grimace (Block)
    Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:04 pm
    Comment #1507

    @ KayJay

    Thanks to Brown Bear and your good self.

    You do make me laugh.

    Roll on floor. 🤣🤣

  15. If Turnbull tries the trick of only referring Labor members, he will be handing Labor the cover to go through every appointment made by the Coalition since they were elected and purge all their fellow travellers and appoint qualified Labor people. It would turn our system into an echo of the American one.

  16. grimace:

    If you’re still around I’ve received marketing material from Aussie Broadband. They are offering me a choice of internet speeds, fast, faster or super fast which I thought was illegal because of false advertising.

    Not liking that.

  17. Kay Jay

    Your explanation is perfectly clear but doesn’t solve my problem. Now on my phone so will say goodnight as typing is so slow.

    Tomorrow is another day 🙂

  18. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/citizenship-crisis-malcolm-turnbull-threatens-to-use-numbers-to-refer-labor-mps-to-high-court-20171109-gzi21x.html

    I love that he thinks he has the numbers for this.

    Next week of parliament he won’t, as Joyce is out and the speaker would not stoop that low.

    The week after, John Alexander will tag out as Joyce tags back in.

    Then it’s Christmas and the ‘not an audit’ will have kicked in.

  19. ‘For a man like him with a nice suit, pronounced ‘PM for life’ back in September 2015, it shouldn’t have been that difficult.’

    Ah, nostalgia. I must go back and read some of those ‘at last, a grown up in charge!’ articles some time.

  20. Ah, nostalgia. I must go back and read some of those ‘at last, a grown up in charge!’ articles some time.

    You could create a pretty successful comedy act from just reading them out.

  21. Fascinating. So we’re watching a bloke paint himself into a corner and for the final act hitting himself in the nuts with a sledgehammer.

  22. Confessions @ #1519 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 4:19 pm

    grimace:

    If you’re still around I’ve received marketing material from Aussie Broadband. They are offering me a choice of internet speeds, fast, faster or super fast which I thought was illegal because of false advertising.

    Not liking that.

    My understanding of their business model is that they actively manage their network and purchase sufficient wholesale capacity so that they are able to guarantee that you will receive the maximum possible speed subject to the limitations of the technology you have been connected with, which would make their advertising lawful.

  23. WOW, ratsak!!!!!

    Great effort, how long did that take you to come up with?

    You hit on my main points and many more with the references to back them up, where my ramblings were puely from my memory.

    You highlight that the language used does not neccessarily limit or constrain the HC as Windhover suggests.

    I look forward to seeing how it plays out in the HC.

  24. Player One @ #1500 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 6:54 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1438 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 5:01 pm

    Properly put and debated, a proposal to reform 44(i) would easily pass a referendum.

    Dream on.

    That’s not me you’re quoting, not #1438, not ever. It reads like a Briefly assertion. My comment was calling you out as duplicitous for using PB numbers to support your cause when it suits you (s44) but rejecting them when it doesn’t (ME).

    P1
    Informal observation based on views expressed here on PB. Only a few posters (out of dozens who have commented on this issue in the last few days) seem to agree with briefly’s extremist view.

    ItsaDream
    A position which is completely at odds with and exposes the shallowness of your repeated claims that the overwhelming support on PB for Marriage Equality reflected nothing more than preselected hootings into an echo chamber, from which you would happily extract yourself from time to time to enjoy the company of your many and various sophisticated acquaintances who reflected the true state of the world.

    Apology accepted in advance.

  25. grimace:

    Unfortunately for non IT people like me it’s virtually impossible to fully understand how that translates to my situation.

    I read this morning that Telstra and Optus are the two most reliable broadband providers, and here they would be among the most popular.

  26. You highlight that the language used does not neccessarily limit or constrain the HC as Windhover suggests.

    and even if it did, it doesn’t.

    True it’s not very like the HC would effectively overturn one of it’s own decisions (or actually just the reasonings that weren’t actually material to the decision), so quickly, but there’s nothing to stop them. They have certainly come up with rulings that effectively overturn previous decisions of the court in the past.

    Any case will be heard on it’s merits, if the case is compelling then it has a chance no matter what the court may have said in Canavan or Sykes. (which I obviously don’t think is anywhere near as definitive as others).

  27. Barnaby getting stuck in Shorten over and over and over again in another gossamer tinged interview from Leigh Sales.

    I think that he mentioned Shorten at least 20 times.

  28. Confessions @ #1532 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 4:34 pm

    grimace:

    Unfortunately for non IT people like me it’s virtually impossible to fully understand how that translates to my situation.

    I read this morning that Telstra and Optus are the two most reliable broadband providers, and here they would be among the most popular.

    Use this website: http://nbnmtm.australiaeast.cloudapp.azure.com/ to find your house, and it’ll give you a good indication of the maximum speed attainable at your house.

    I don’t recall you ever stating which town you live in, though based on a couple of things you’ve said I’ll assume you are in a town with FttN.

  29. Confessions @ #1525 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    I read this morning that Telstra and Optus are the two most reliable broadband providers, and here they would be among the most popular.

    I recommend counting such statements as pure marketing fluff (even if/when they come from a “reputable” source like a mainstream journalist), and heading onto sites like productreview.com.au (or even better, the Whirlpool ‘broadband’ forums) and doing your own research there.

  30. I just saw Sales “interview” Joyce. Nothing more than a free ad for Joyce. Even when he is bagging Bill Shorten over Labor members not referring themselves to the High Court she does not mention John Alexander. Whatever she is being paid it is far too much for her complete lack of interest in exhibiting forensic skills.

  31. Have I got this right. An individual can refer themselves to the HC or the individual houses of Parliament can refer a member (with a simple majority) meaning the party with the most members effectively has a veto if they so choose?
    But there is a convention that referral must be bipartisan or not at all.
    And of course the Liberal Party is not known to break conventions.

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