Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Lizzie,

    Yes, there’s a login box on the right hand side. But what credentials do I use? I tried WordPress credentials and they didn’t work. And I can’t see anywhere to open an account on PB.

  3. The Xenophon ruling does actually open up an interesting can of worms in that a citizenship that isn’t actually a citizenship (lacks the fundamental rights of citizenship) doesn’t count. That could be interesting for citizens of some of the more dictatorial / human rights averse regimes eg Iran has been known to refuse to accept returned refugees who are citizens (which is absolutely illegal under the global rules on citizenship, since Right of Entry/Return/Abode are ncessary). Someone from Iran could as a result make the same argument that cleared Xenophon: that the citizenship is a fraud. Bet that would be fun.

  4. Lizzie, makes sense (I guess). I am on an iPad and don’t see the anonymous label (which, I believe, others can see). So to me it looked like you had posted it under your name ‘Lizzie’. My brain went into instant meltdown as I tried to process that you had managed to post something while not logged in. Even with your explanation, my brain still hurts ;-).

  6. Aqualung, I saw that fellow on Lateline last night. Apparently, that device had been implanted into his head where his brain used to be.

  7. Pauline the puppet master is on tour with the battlers’ bus in Queensland but her puppet is not on board. Of course, Pauline in turn is having her strings pulled by the chief puppet master, Ashby.

    State party leader Steve Dickson is not taking part in the One Nation bus tour.

    Senator Hanson denied acting as a “puppet master”, but said she did expect to be consulted about Queensland Government issues.

    “I’m going to have an impact in this as well. I’m not just going to be on the sidelines,” she said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-09/hanson-battler-bus-breaks-down-on-highway-near-rockhampton/9133374?WT.ac=statenews_qld

  9. @ P1 – “Seems perfectly fine to most people.”

    Would very much appreciate if you can point me to the polling from a reputable company that allows you to state that with such confidence.

    Many thanks

  10. I saw it too PeeBee. And the woman with the colgate ring of confidence attached to hers.
    Thanks to Dan G for posting this. I hadn’t even been drinking last night when I stumbled onto lateline!

    😀

  11. The Opposition Leader has delivered a letter to the Prime Minister with his draft amendments to the government’s proposal, declaring he would not agree to a request for only “non-controversial legislation” to be considered for the remainder of the year.

    “While I appreciate the government’s anxiety about control in the House of Representatives, I cannot agree to the parliament not considering legislation and issues that are of prime importance to the Australian people while we wait on a result from the New England by-election,” Mr Shorten wrote.

    He wrote he was “deeply concerned” that members of cabinet “sought to conceal” Mr Parry’s citizenship concerns, asking from Senator Fifield to be referred to the privileges committee.

    “As a matter of principle, it should be incumbent on all members of parliament to not be complicit in concealing the ineligibility of another member,” Mr Shorten said.

    “I believe this is a most serious lapse of judgement and ask that you support referring Senator Fifield to the privileges committee along with any other member or senator involved in this cover up.”

    As well as his demands for tougher disclosure requirements and a shorter time period, Mr Shorten asked for stronger nomination disclosure requirements.

    “At the core of our position is the desire of the Labor Party to ensure two things,” he wrote.

    “First, that the disclosure resolution in no way waters down the standard set by the High Court, which your current draft clearly does.

    “Second, I want to ensure that we resolve this matter before the parliament rises this year and without imposing further costs on the Australian people by requiring the parliament to be recalled.

    “A bipartisan solution is possible, however we will not agree to a process that is insufficient to genuinely build public trust in the eligibility of parliamentarians.

    Labor’s amendments require the disclosures to cover grandparents as well as parents, kick in at 1pm Friday 1 December 2017 (about 4 days notice if passed at earliest opportunity).

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-accuses-labor-of-exploiting-chaos-facing-parliament-on-citizenship/news-story/b799b5b615b5a8b8e5b2e8362ae0a8a7

  12. Meanwhile is the UK:

    Prime Minister Theresa May summoned the Secretary of State for International Development back from a trip to Africa after it emerged she had failed to reveal all the details of private meetings with Israeli politicians and officials.

    Ms Patel’s lack of transparency left her open to accusations that she was undermining British foreign policy, and even acting as the agent of a foreign power.

    Her allies painted it as an innocent mistake, but opponents called it an unforgivable betrayal of government solidarity.

  14. Voice Endeavour @ #1403 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 3:13 pm

    @ P1 – “Seems perfectly fine to most people.”

    Would very much appreciate if you can point me to the polling from a reputable company that allows you to state that with such confidence.

    Many thanks

    Informal observation based on views expressed here on PB. Only a few posters (out of dozens who have commented on this issue in the last few days) seem to agree with briefly’s extremist view.

  17. @ P1 – Informal observation based on views expressed here on PB would put Labor at about 90% on primary vote.

    I really shouldn’t have to be explaining, on a blog about Politics polling, why you shouldn’t just use informal observation of posts expressed on a website as evidence of the reflection of societys’ view.

    Also, many posters agree that the current system is bad and should be changed. They may not exactly agree with a specific fix propsoed by a specific poster, but my informal observation is that support for change outweighs support for BAU on PB.

  18. [Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 41m41 minutes ago
    72 hours since we broke the John Alexander story and he still doesn’t have any advice from the UK? I don’t buy it #auspol]

    Word is that he’s playing for time.

  19. Lizzie,

    That’s what I thought. So I can’t log in because I don’t have a Crikey account.

    So preventing posts without a login would be a bad idea from my point of view.

  20. [Jacqueline Maley‏Verified account @JacquelineMaley · 6h6 hours ago

    These halfwits dragged their knuckles off the ground for long enough to video their pathetic attack on @samdastyari. It’s worth remembering that this happens all the time, off camera, to everyday people too:]

  21. Voice Endeavour @ #1411 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 3:37 pm

    … my informal observation is that support for change outweighs support for BAU on PB.

    I really shouldn’t have to be explaining, on a blog about Politics polling, why you shouldn’t just use informal observation of posts expressed on a website as evidence of the reflection of societys’ view.

  23. People seem to be asking William to change the way the site works to suit an add-on they use. This seems to be a reversal of the usual order of things 🙂

  25. [Toll Group‏ @Toll_Group · 3h3 hours ago
    We can confirm that an individual wearing a Toll shirt in a recent video involving Sam Dastyari is not employed by Toll & has not worked for us for several months. We celebrate diversity & expect our staff to behave in a manner that is consistent with our values at all times.]

  27. It’s unfortunate that the dual Citizenship fiasco should divert attention from Cash’s use of the AFP in a political witch hunt.
    The fiasco is prime popcorn material, but hardly threatens the fabric of our democracy (pace Briefly, whose prolixity renders the acronym oxymoronic).
    The other is an alarming symptom of the “neoliberal”‘s desire to turn our democracy into a police state.

  28. So, P1, considering ‘no’ is neither the majority, nor the plurality answer, would you care to repeat that it “Seems perfectly fine to most people.”?

  31. Somebody should ask Dutton why he allowed this hate preacher into Australia.

    A New Zealand preacher who said gay people should be shot in the head and that Kiwi PM Jacinda Ardern belonged in the kitchen has packed up shop — and moved to Australia.

    Pastor Logan Robertson has announced via Facebook that he and his family had moved to Brisbane and had “planted” a new church in the city.

    The controversial figure was detained at the airport for nine hours on Monday, which he said “wasn’t a good start”.

    Mr Robertson, of Auckland’s WestCity Bible Baptist Church, was “unapologetic” over his anti-gay comments from a sermon in July.

    “My view on homo marriage is that the Bible never mentions it, so I’m not against them getting married,” Mr Robertson told his congregation.

    “As long as a bullet goes through their head the moment they kiss … Because that’s what it talks about — not homo marriage but homo death.”

    In a video on May 22, Mr Robertson called for New Zealand to introduce the death penalty on gay people.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/gay-marriage/angry-nz-pastor-moves-to-australia/news-story/9bb984846a11fb5954c7e2d646cac6f1

  34. VE:
    The polling result does not surprise me. In an ideal world I would prefer s.44 was amended to permit dual citizenship.

    OTOH I am opposed to making any effort to amend s.44. It is not even a 3rd order issue IMO (with all respect to Briefly’s passion).

    So many of the Yes respondents might, like me, be perfectly fine with s.44 as it is.

    P1 might yet be right despite the poll.

  36. I think it’s just as well that the Conservatives weren’t allowed to prevail in amending S18 of the Racial Vilification Act.

    Just the mere presence of Pauline Hanson and her One Nation droogs in parliament is enough to give the bigots who attacked Senator Dastyari in the pub last night free licence. Imagine what they would feel free to do if their behaviour had been completely unburdened by illegality if the Act had been repealed?

  39. [Equality in Space‏ @SpaceKidette · 8m8 minutes ago

    The U.S. and China agree to cyber-security co operation. What could go wrong?]

  41. Sharkie can provide another test case. I don’t see any reason why she’d be safer than Keay, but she did get a couple of items ticked off earlier than Keay so it’s always possible.

    Roberts: election called, nominations closed, election held, sworn in, applied to revoke, received confirmation of receipt, revocation effective, received confirmation of revocation.
    Conclusion: Not reasonable.

    Keay: election called, applied to revoke, nominations closed, received confirmation of receipt, election held, sworn in, revocation effective, received confirmation of revocation
    Conclusion: tbd.

    Sharkie: applied to revoke, election called, nominations closed, received confirmation of receipt, revocation effective, election held, received confirmation of revocation, sworn in
    Conclusion: tbd.

  42. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has laid out an expanded list of demands of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to resolve the citizenship crisis, including commitments that any ministers referred to the High Court must stand aside, and that a senior cabinet minister be referred to the Privileges Committee.

    Mr Shorten has also rejected a request from Mr Turnbull to limit debate in parliament to only non-controversial legislation for the remainder of the year.

    In a formal response on Thursday to the federal government’s proposal for a citizenship disclosure regime for federal parliamentarians, Mr Shorten has insisted that every member must provide documented evidence of their citizenship status, not just a declaration of belief.

    As already indicated, Mr Shorten has also rejected the government’s proposals on the timing of disclosures. The government’s proposal was a 21-day deadline from the date of resolutions by the parliament but Mr Shorten is pushing for five days.

    “The Australian people have a right to have this matter resolved by the Parliament within the remaining sitting weeks and should not be forced to pay a single dollar for the Parliament to sit later to resolve this matter,” Mr Shorten’s letter says.

    “The disclosure deadline should be five days from the day the resolution is passed in the Parliament, to ensure that Members’ declarations are made public by the end of the first sitting week, December 1.

    “This would allow the Parliament to consider any matters arising from the declarations in the last scheduled week of Parliament”.

    However, Mr Shorten has gone further in his letter than these two areas of difference that were publicly indicated after the meeting between the two leaders on Wednesday, though sources say they were all matters that had been raised at the meeting between the two men.
    …

    “Furthermore, I again seek your commitment that any Minister who is referred to the High Court will stand aside from their ministerial position until doubts about his or her eligibility are resolved. This is necessary to avoid a repeat of the Barnaby Joyce and Fiona Nash debacles”.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-widens-demands-on-malcolm-turnbull-to-resolve-citizenship-crisis-20171109-gzhzpl#ixzz4xuXAUrpF
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  43. You know you’re having a good day in politics when you can throw “debacle” at your opponent and not be using the term hyperbolically.

  44. Player One @ #1368 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 3:28 pm

    Voice Endeavour @ #1403 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 3:13 pm

    @ P1 – “Seems perfectly fine to most people.”

    Would very much appreciate if you can point me to the polling from a reputable company that allows you to state that with such confidence.

    Many thanks

    Informal observation based on views expressed here on PB. Only a few posters (out of dozens who have commented on this issue in the last few days) seem to agree with briefly’s extremist view.

    A position which is completely at odds with and exposes the shallowness of your repeated claims that the overwhelming support on PB for Marriage Equality reflected nothing more than preselected hootings into an echo chamber, from which you would happily extract yourself from time to time to enjoy the company of your many and various sophisticated acquaintances who reflected the true state of the world.

  46. Someone on twitter cryptically said “do know what they are asking for?”
    So what does this mean.
    Shorten has said he doesn’t want to stop presenting legislation that hasn’t got bi-partisan support

  47. [
    George Williams‏
    @ProfGWilliams

    Australia’s citizenship crisis looks even more odd from India. Nations such as the UK and UK permit dual nationals to sit in parliament without a mumur, so why are we getting so hung up on this?

    ]

  48. Voice Endeavour @ #1422 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 4:01 pm

    So, P1, considering ‘no’ is neither the majority, nor the plurality answer, would you care to repeat that it “Seems perfectly fine to most people.”?

    No. I would point out that this is actually a slightly different question than that of changing the constitution, but it is indicative. If that question were put instead, I believe the response would be even more strongly against. It certainly offers no support at all to either your view or briefly’s.

  49. The Survey results will be released next Wednesday. There’s a ME Results Party in Sydney, 9am start Prince Alfred Park, graced by Thorpe, Szubanski et al.

    Turnbull will still be OS. J Bishop with be Deputy Teflon.

    The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end ~

    Having argued this survey was needed so the public’s voice could be heard, having then asked the public to say “no” on the basis that these freedoms would be under threat, and having most likely seen the public reject that argument, it now offers these very arguments as a basis for rejecting whatever legislation is finally introduced to parliament.

    The trouble is that while Turnbull can only prosper with the support of the public, his internal enemies have no such limitation. They are already arguing for broadly unpopular positions. Theirs is now the politics of a sub-culture, standing against the tyranny of the majority. In this, they win as long as they keep fighting. Same-sex marriage works for them as an issue because it gives them something to resist. That’s why a postal survey could never end this simply. It could only deliver us to the next fight.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/think-a-yes-vote-will-be-the-end-of-the-matter-dont-be-so-sure-20171109-gzhr4y.html

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