Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. citizen @ #371 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    Regarding the scripts for “no” door knockers:

    I wonder if they are being told to dress in their Sunday best and go around in pairs like the JWs? Will they drag along their kids to make a point? Should be interesting.

    I can’t wait to meet some of the freaks and weirdos.
    If I can spare the time, we will have a very lengthy conversation.

  2. Pegasus @ #386 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:53 pm

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/northcote-byelection-greens-pick-their-woman-for-key-battle-of-the-north-20170911-gyez5c.html

    The Victorian Greens hope a local Indigenous woman can finally achieve the political breakthrough in Melbourne’s inner-north the minor party has been threatening for years.

    Lidia Thorpe, from one of the state’s most prominent Aboriginal families, will take on Labor hopeful Clare Burns in the upcoming Northcote byelection to fill the State Parliament seat left vacant by the death of the ALP’s Fiona Richardson.

    I vote on party and policy, not gender or ethnicity.

  3. bemused

    If I can spare the time, we will have a very lengthy conversation.

    If we could only get that out there the entire NO campaign would collapse.

  4. Not a pretty prospect:
    Toxic waste sites in the Tampa Bay region also pose risks to public health if they are flooded or damaged.

    Florida has the nation’s largest phosphorus mining industry, and it’s based in the area. A byproduct of the industry is 27 hill-sized piles of waste containing low levels of radiation and other toxins, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Some of the piles are 500 feet tall.

    Last year, a huge sinkhole opened up beneath one of these stacks, sending millions of gallons of contaminated mine wastewater into the Floridan Aquifer, a drinking water source for millions. The hole remained open for months until earlier this year when the owner, Mosaic, finally managed to create a preliminary seal.

    But the repairs are not finished and could be vulnerable to the storm.

    Mosaic spokeswoman Callie Neslund said in an email on Sunday the company has been working to complete repairs. She said a well meant to recover pollutants is working, along with back-up generators.

    “Our efforts to reinforce and strengthen the (sinkhole) seal are proving effective,” Neslund said.

    The region is also home to more than half of Florida’s 51 Superfund sites – areas designated as some of the most toxic places in the nation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Many are old chemical or oil storage facilities that left behind a legacy of dangerous contamination in soil and groundwater. State and federal government agencies have been working to clean them up for decades.

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/irma-brings-fears-surge-sewers-toxins-tampa-area/

  5. mikehilliard @ #403 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 7:29 pm

    bemused

    If I can spare the time, we will have a very lengthy conversation.

    If we could only get that out there the entire NO campaign would collapse.

    My father once kept a couple of Mormons, IIRC, going the whole morning while he was working in the front garden. When mum called him in for lunch and he just bid them a cheery goodbye and thanked them for the company and conversation, their jaws nearly hit the ground. The thought they had a convert in the making.

  6. I think Murphy’s point regarding Turnbull is that after 2 years we’re still waiting to see the Turnbull Government.

    For the last 4 years we’ve had the Abbott Government, the first 2 years under PM Abbott and the last 2 years under PM Turnbull.

    This isn’t a world shattering concept here at PB but outside it probably is.

  7. AGL knows that if it agrees with this government to preserve lidell beyond 2022 with this govt and this govt loses the next election it will be high and dry with a stranded asset. It also knows it has ALL the cards. Good luck Mal.

  8. antonbruckner11 @ #407 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 7:37 pm

    AGL knows that if it agrees with this government to preserve lidell beyond 2022 with this govt and this govt loses the next election it will be high and dry with a stranded asset. It also knows it has ALL the cards. Good luck Mal.

    It must be tempting for AGL to sell Lidell. They bank some cash and pass on the costs of decommissioning to someone else.

  9. For the last 4 years we’ve had the Abbott Government, the first 2 years under PM Abbott and the last 2 years under PM Turnbull.

    That presupposes that there is a difference between an Abbott govt and a Turnbull govt.

    I say this not having read the Murphy article btw.

  10. Bemused – maybe, but AGL won’t want a competitor with its renewable generators. It will extract a very high price if that is going to happen.

  11. Boolean:

    That is very worrying for Florida. I posted yesterday about how the state has ageing infrastructure way overdue for renewal that is likely to be challenged by Irma’s aftermath. An expensive road ahead for the US.

  12. AGL will probably come back with a plan based on renewables plus storage. i.e. what they were going to do anyway.
    5 years is an eternity, lots of time to get stuff done, while the cost of renewable generation and storage continues to fall.

  15. [bemused
    antonbruckner11 @ #407 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 7:37 pm

    AGL knows that if it agrees with this government to preserve lidell beyond 2022 with this govt and this govt loses the next election it will be high and dry with a stranded asset. It also knows it has ALL the cards. Good luck Mal.

    It must be tempting for AGL to sell Lidell. They bank some cash and pass on the costs of decommissioning to someone else.]

    That’s the only benefit I can see.

    But if they sell it then that could have an impact on their renewable power generators that are coming on line.

    If they were to extend the life of Liddell then that potentially effects the decommissioning of their other coal plants.

  19. [zoomster
    But why Liddell? Why pull this rabbit out of the hat?    ]

    It’s all part of a wide ranging, comprehensive and considered energy and climate policy. 🙂

  22. Trog Sorrenson (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 7:48 pm
    Comment #412
    AGL will probably come back with a plan based on renewables plus storage. i.e. what they were going to do anyway.

    Trog

    What type of storage would you anticipate? Battery?

  24. Perhaps AGL will propose a straight swap – they acquire the Commonwealth’s % of Snowy Hydro and Turnbull acquires Liddell “as is”.

  26. Darn
    Battery, because they can be distributed where they are needed, including adjacent to solar and wind farms, electricity substations or wherever. Much more cost effective than centralised storage, that relies on transmission assets owned by others.
    Not to say that they don’t have pumped hydro plans as well.

  28. Trog Sorrenson (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 8:14 pm
    Comment #426
    Darn
    Battery, because they can be distributed where they are needed, including adjacent to solar and wind farms, electricity substations or wherever. Much more cost effective than centralised storage, that relies on transmission assets owned by others.
    Not to say that they don’t have pumped hydro plans as well.

    Trog

    Is there any evidence that the AGL bloke favours battery storage? Has he ever spoken in favour of it to your knowledge?

  38. Everyone is getting so excited about Mal’s cunning plan to keep Liddell going. Reporters crowding around Andrew Vesey asking “will AGL sell Liddell?” Vesey saying nothing. Of course the smart, and truthful, answer would be “If someone offers us more than we think it’s worth.” I’ll start the bidding at $1.

  41. Darn
    Vesey would be technology agnostic about making money. They have considerable gas assets they can rely on as they gradually ramp up battery storage. Storage is less of a deal in eastern states where renewable penetration is relatively low.

  43. I don’t think it will, but if AGL came up with a seriously big battery – 500MW+ – its gonna piss off the loonies no end 🙂

    Yes… please!

  46. That form doesn’t actually say what kind of mark to make in the box. I’m assuming tick or cross but you’d think they would make it complicit

  48. shiftaling:

    That thought occurred to me too. I guess because it will be actual humans who scrutinise the forms rather than a scanning machine means any mark (tick, cross, number) will determine the voter’s preference yes or no.

  50. Just to piss of the “gas proponents in the energy wars ;lol: a very recent article in The Scientific American.

    Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest Sources of Electricity, and It’s Getting Cheaper

    Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released the latest iteration of its annual Wind Technologies Market Report, which pulls together a wealth of data to track trends in the cost, performance, and growth of wind energy.
    The report found that U.S. wind energy will continue to be one of the lowest cost electricity generation technologies available, with the long-term wind electricity price available through a power purchase agreement coming in at about half the expected cost of just running a natural gas power plant.

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/wind-energy-is-one-of-the-cheapest-sources-of-electricity-and-its-getting-cheaper/

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