I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.
Further polling:
• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.
• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.
State matters:
• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.
• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.
William:
South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish above-the-line voting, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six.
I can’t work out from that whether they are abolishing above the line voting or not.
Edit: I can’t get italics to work.
Yeah, I meant to say group voting tickets. Corrected.
With respect to formatting:
As is well known, when a post is long, formatting is removed, the post is truncated, and a ‘read more’ link is added.
It appears that if you get the number of characters just right (or wrong) formatting is removed, but no ‘read more’ link is added.
In my post, the additional characters of my edit addition triggered the read more, which restored formatting when that link is clicked, as usual.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/australia-is-once-again-a-frightened-country-we-need-to-reconstruct-our-values
Anne Summers laments the loss of any shared sense of national purpose. She’s right in many ways. I think the strength of the reactionaries accounts for much of this. They have to be defeated.
Trump Pushes US Toward War By Telling North Korea That A Military Attack Is Ready To Go
President Trump moved the country closer to war on Friday morning by warning North Korea that a US military attack is “locked and loaded.”
Make no mistake about it. Thanks to Trump’s tweet, the US is closer to war on Friday than they were on Thursday. Trump is painting himself into a corner and may leave himself no other solution, but a military strike.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/11/trump-pushes-war-telling-north-korea-military-attack-ready.html
Trump’s Russia Troubles Grow As Congressional Investigators Want To Question His Secretary
The Russia investigation continues to inch closer to the President on a daily basis as congressional investigators want to question the secretary who handles his appointments and communications.
While the world watches to see if the US will go to war with North Korea, the Russia investigations are moving forward. Quietly, with each passing day, Americans are getting closer to knowing the truth about the 2016 election.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/11/trumps-russia-troubles-grow-congressional-investigators-question-secretary.html
Take cover, avoid bomb flash. Guam issues nuclear guidelines
Guam posted emergency guidelines on Friday to help residents prepare for any potential nuclear attack after a threat from North Korea to fire missiles in the vicinity of the U.S. Pacific territory.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/11/cover-avoid-bomb-flash-guam-issues-nuclear-guidelines.html
Senate judiciary committee demands info on Kushner-Russian relationship from White House: report
According to CNN, the committee is requesting more information from the Trump White House about Kushner’s security clearance application, and seeks specifically to know whether his alleged ties to Russia affect his ability to handle classified intel.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/senate-judiciary-committee-demands-info-on-kushner-russian-relationship-from-white-house-report/
China warns North Korea: You’re on your own if you go after the United States
BEIJING — China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-warns-north-korea-youre-on-your-own-if-you-go-after-the-us/2017/08/11/a01a4396-7e68-11e7-9026-4a0a64977c92_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_chinankorea-511am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.61180507d6c3
The imagination boggles at what Trumptaste might do to the dignity of the Oval Office.
Let’s hope he’s merely ordered the carpets to be cleaned.
Good Morning Bludgers : )
This is Stephen Bali(not your average ‘Union thug’):
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/melbourne-arts/artists-call-on-ngv-to-dump-wilson-security-over-offshore-detention-20170811-gxub1f.html
The latest from Paula Matthewson (along the lines of, ‘people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones at Bill Shorten):
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/11/turnbull-attacks-shorten/?utm_source=Responsys&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170812_TND
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Trump’s dangerous idiocy continues with “the US military is locked and loaded” on North Korea.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-military-is-locked-and-loaded-trumps-latest-warning-to-north-korea-20170811-gxupv2.html
Paul Keating has warned that North Korea will never abandon its nuclear weapon program and that this new reality will have to be addressed in the same way as the west sought to contain the former Soviet Union.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/paul-keating-north-korea-could-collapse-if-it-gives-up-nuclear-weapons-20170811-gxua4x.html
Jonathan Freedland says that anyone hoping that the deep state will depose an unhinged American president before all-out war with North Korea needs to think again! we can’t just fantasise him away.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/11/trump-nuclear-threat-deep-state-fantasy-north-korea
Kym Beazley explains our ANZUS commitments with respect to North Korea.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/kim-beazley-why-anzus-does-not-automatically-commit-us-to-follow-the-us-to-war-20170811-gxuays.html
Mike Seccombe writes on how a hardened Gillian Triggs is not done yet.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/08/12/australias-human-rights-disgraces/15024600005056
Peter van Onselen explains how the Coalition is finding it hard to damage Shorten’s four pillars. A very good article. Google.
/news/inquirer/coalition-finds-it-hard-to-damage-bill-shortens-four-pillars/news-story/d65fecf83f809b11df14b0be2e18702c
Peter Hartcher tells us to not rule out Julie Bishop from leadership calculations.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/capable-and-hardworking-dont-discount-julie-bishops-leadership-potential-20170811-gxugzp.html
Ebony Bennett on what the silence of politicians has been saying.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/capable-and-hardworking-dont-discount-julie-bishops-leadership-potential-20170811-gxugzp.html
News Corp has signalled it could again swing the axe at its Australian newspapers as advertising dollars dry up and the company focuses on aggressively growing revenue from real-estate listings. I’m sure we could come up with a few names to assist.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/news-corp-dives-into-red-on-foxtel-newspaper-writedowns-20170811-gxu26i.html
Nick O’Malley examines Abbott’s motives and methods with respect to the SSM debate.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-is-ripping-his-antigay-marriage-strategy-out-of-the-us-playbook-20170811-gxu2j2.html
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/politicians-silence-is-as-telling-as-their-outbursts-20170811-gxuhvm.html
Section 2 . . .
Paul Bongiorno writes “Australian politics surely could not get more bizarre than the spectacle of the Turnbull government tearing itself apart this week over what it dismisses as a second-order issue. And it all comes down to the dynamics generated by one embittered man. Although many complain that the continued focus on Tony Abbott is nauseating, to ignore him is to be blind to the political reality of where our national government finds itself.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/08/12/why-tony-abbott-cant-be-ignored/15024600005052
Dennis Shanahan says that the Turnbull cabinet will run dead on the same-sex marriage plebiscite for the next three months, with Liberal and Nationals ministers avoiding active campaigning or events outside their electorates, regardless of whether they support a Yes or No vote. Google.
/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbulls-team-off-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-trail/news-story/75508baa61b9c7ca5eae8f6946fd558e
Richard Glover writes “Australia has rarely been last in anything, but we’re now positioning ourselves for that role. OK, not last. Presumably Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Honduras will be behind us when it comes to legislating for equal marriage.”
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/richard-glover-its-time-australia-gave-equal-marriage-a-fair-go-20170808-gxrjxk.html
In forging ahead with a bad-faith postal vote on same-sex marriage, the government has damaged one of the few implements that could have been deployed against a crisis that runs deeper than the Coalition’s leadership or the definition of marriage, writes Max Chalmers.
https://newmatilda.com/2017/08/11/on-marriage-equality-the-coalition-has-turned-a-democratic-antidote-into-a-poison/
Paul Kelly pontificates that while the flawed postal vote plebiscite has provoked furious rival responses, the pivotal problem is just emerging — the failure in any draft bill by Coalition or Labor MPs to fully protect religious freedoms once same-sex marriage is legislated. Google.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/clash-of-rights-looms-insamesex-marriage-debate/news-story/e3ab746122ca9f5d8fa5788b6f765c52
The methodology being used to test the public mood on same-sex marriage is dividing both the Liberal Party and constitutional experts – and further diminishing the prime minister’s standing among his own says Karen Middleton.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/08/12/the-same-sex-marriage-postal-vote/15024600005059
Crispin Hull opines that the Liberals’ SSM politics are as bad as its policy.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/liberal-marriage-equality-politics-are-as-bad-as-the-policy-20170810-gxt3cv.html
Paul Kidea tells us that by giving the job to the ABS, the government has sidestepped questions about its constitutional authority to pay for an AEC-run plebiscite. But it has opened up new avenues of legal challenge and established a process that lacks legitimacy.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-vote-lacks-legitimacy-and-should-be-abandoned-20170811-gxubhe.html
Another good contribution from Katharine Murphy on the politics of the SSM issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/marriage-equality-debate-abbott-sees-path-to-relevance-shorten-sees-path-to-pm
Phil Coorey reckons that Turnbull will breathe a sigh of relief if Shorten’s Yes campaign succeeds. Google.
/news/shorten-steps-away-from-a-boycott-backfire-on-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-20170809-gxs8zp
Section 3 . . .
So we’ll be waiting until the very eve of the mail out to hear from the High Court.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/high-court-to-hear-challenge-to-marriage-equality-postal-plebiscite-in-september
Jack Waterford says that the ABS is prostituting its reputation with the survey.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-abs-is-prostituting-its-reputation-with-samesex-marriage-survey-20170811-gxu959.html
The Turnbull government was scrambling yesterday afternoon to determine whether a loophole in its same-sex marriage survey would disenfranchise about 113,000 “silent electors”. They were also forced to work out whether 16- and 17-year-olds could accidentally be included in the survey, but ruled this out late on the day.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-unsure-if-marriage-survey-will-exclude-100000-voters-allow-16yearolds-to-vote-20170811-gxuag7.html
Michael McCormack issues yet another grovelling apology over a homophobic newspaper column.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/small-business-minister-michael-mccormack-issues-new-apology-over-homophobic-newspaper-column-20170811-gxuc99.html
Here is how Malcolm Turnbull (could have) addressed the nation from Taylor Square, Darlinghurst, in his electorate of Wentworth.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/11/time-to-get-this-done-turnbulls-speech-on-marriage-equality-we-want-to-hear
Adele Ferguson on the growing trust deficit with the banks as regulators continue to put the boot in.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/regulators-put-the-boot-into-banks-trust-deficit-growing-20170811-gxuagg.html
Alex McKinnon writes that while profits continue to soar for Commonwealth Bank, a laundering scandal makes the case for a banking royal commission grow stronger.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2017/08/12/crime-and-terror-the-banks/15024600005060
How drug syndicates turned the CBA into a giant money pump. Google.
/business/banking-and-finance/austrac-case-how-drug-syndicates-turned-commonwealth-bank-into-a-money-pump-20170810-gxtnht
Meanwhile the Commonwealth Bank has ruled out lending money to the proposed Carmichael mega coal mine in Queensland in a move green groups say adds pressure on the federal government to run out loans of its own.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/desperate-commbank-rules-out-lending-to-adanis-carmichael-coal-mine-20170811-gxughp.html
Section 4 . . .
John Hewson tells us how in a global first, Australian mum-and-dad shareholders Guy and Kim Abrahams have launched a case against the Commonwealth Bank, arguing that the bank has breached the law by not disclosing the risks climate change poses to its business. Interesting.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/11/new-cba-case-a-warning-step-up-on-climate-change-or-well-see-you-in-court
Paula Matthewson says that Vilifying Bill Shorten only brings the Liberals’ dirty laundry to mind.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/11/turnbull-attacks-shorten/
This bribery case continues to be shrouded in secrecy.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/unlawful-conduct-by-federal-police-took-huge-bribery-case-to-brink-of-collapse-20170804-gxpd1j.html
More on the delightful Ibrahim family.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-photo-that-shows-what-happened-when-some-of-fadi-ibrahims-1-million-went-missing-20170810-gxtv1w.html
http://www.smh.com.au/world/michael-and-fadi-ibrahim-did-not-resist-their-arrest-dubai-police-20170810-gxtr40.html
Julia Baird follows through on her recent contribution on the prevalence of domestic violence from certain religious men and tells us about the clergy who are actually listening.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/domestic-violence-in-church-communities-the-male-clergy-who-are-ready-to-listen-20170810-gxtye0.html
If you’ve got (like I) chronic back pain don’t start taking opioids.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/landmark-longterm-study-shows-opioids-no-good-for-back-pain-20170803-gxop4z.html
New generation nuclear power stations that produce cheap electricity and less waste always seem about to appear, but so far they have not materialised.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/new-generation-nuclear-reactors-unlikely-to-arrive-in-next-30-years,10600
Section 5 . . .
With young jobseekers being encouraged to sign up to the PaTH internship program, companies are benefiting from free labour and a government subsidy. The question is, what are the interns gaining?
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/08/12/path-and-unpaid-internships/15024600005054
What will Matthew Guy’s lobster dinner end up costing him?
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/the-guy-rise-20170811-gxum24.html
Ian Warden laments on the quality of information that came out of a recent focus group and reminds us of Winston Churchill’s “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/voters-brace-for-dreaded-marriage-equality-plebiscite-20170809-gxsc11.html
Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir and the breakout of hostilities.
Mark David with Abbott’s political correctness.
David Pope encourages people to enrol with a ripper of a cartoon.
A frightening contribution from David Pope here.
Paul Zanetti with a North Korean suicide bomber.
Matt Golding with some culinary suggestions for Matthew Guy.
David Rowe does it again. Hove a look at the pot (is it a chamber pot I wonder?)
Ron Tandberg goes right at Ian Narev’s throat!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Jon Kudelka has a good crack at Trump’s golfing prowess.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9e38e78f20dc1a4b15c3d58ef689518b
Thanks as always BK for your tireless efforts. I still think you could lighten your workload and convey the full information by just posting the cartoon page.
Lizzie
It isn’t just the letting off of CBA from prosecution that shows the corruptness of the current government. Remember that shameless $30 million gift to Newscorpse? This is why.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/news-corp-dives-into-red-on-foxtel-newspaper-writedowns-20170811-gxu26i.html
PvO’s article on Shorten’s ‘4 pillars’ is not very good.
The government have continuously been going hard on the ‘union thug’ rhetoric. They held a bogus royal commision, at a cost of $80 million which may as well have been called ‘get Shorten’.
With Shorten the government have ‘played the man’ to death, and it’s hardly a card the LNP ever fail to play to the max.
LoL
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ivanka-trump-india-summit-name-and-location-of-summit-half-wit-saudi-arabia-prince-us-delegation-a7887731.html
Looks as if the Lobster Cave charges high prices for … no, better not put William in danger.
http://www.goodfood.com.au/lobster-cave-beaumaris/lobster-cave-restaurant-review-20170811-gxumas?benref=theage
Morning bludgers
Despite all the crapola happening politically here, the biggest issue continues to be Trump and his sychophants.
He hasn’t stopped tweeting threats and whatnot directed at North Korea.
I have got to believe Secretary Defence Mattis and ors are in the meantime doing real diplomacy and running the show, as has been intimated, if not, we are stuffed!
The Coalition sure knows how to bring the crazy to their political ranks(from PvO’s column):
If the High Court’s decision on the postal survey only comes out with days to spare, think of the wasted funds (millions?) which will already have been spent if the answer is No.
I would have thought that Objectors such as Paul Kelly should have a look at the proposed legislation before arguing about the loss of religious freedom.
BK
The SMH has Hartcher and Ebony Bennet saying BishJnr still a possibility … a Kirner / Kennealy leader put up because none of the ‘men’ want to be standing out front when the Coalition gets flogged?
lizzie
.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/politicians-silence-is-as-telling-as-their-outbursts-20170811-gxuhvm.html
Good article
This is enough to put you off your breakfast – Tony Abbott in a leather jacket!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/tony-abbott-in-leather-former-pm-joins-select-politicians-club-with-kangaroo-skin-jacket?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Politics+AUS&utm_term=239024&subid=7341516&CMP=ema_792
I must agree that, overall Trump remains the largest and most dangerous political taling point. His military (and ours?) remains “locked and loaded” to strile North Korea. What does that even mean? Def Con what? I cannot remember a (sane world) leader using such hyperbolic language before. What does he do next if NK ignores him? There is not much threatening language left to use. He either humiliatingly backs down, or plunges Asia into a serious war. It is a foolish tactics, by someone whose only skills remain as exaggeration and bullying. Have a good day all. Take a look at NZ polling for their September election. Very interesting.
C@
The ‘NO to SSM/ME’ groups have rolled out all the same old crap –
– Churches shouldn’t be forced to …
– Marriage Celebrants shouldn’t be forced to …
– Caterers shouldn’t be forced to …
– Cake makers shouldn’t be forced to …
– Venue providers shouldn’t be forced to … And even more
So now it’s taxi drivers (no doubt including Uber)
Next we’ll get Venue Cleaners, and anyone else that can be thought of.
When, of course, these people are not ‘forced to’ participate.
A poster here likes the ‘forced to’ furphy and rolls it out but this christian lobby group meme has been demonstrated not to have happened in any advanced western country that I know of.
1. When you get in a taxi you give the driver an address or a destination. Not a blow by blow of what’s going down at that destination when you get there.
2. For a party that claims to have an instinctive understanding of small business, their MPs sure don’t give any impression they actually understand that businesses don’t generally turn away opportunities for profit.
Soc
The Chinese government have said they will not intervene if NK ‘fires first’ and the US retaliates.
They have said however that the taking over of NK by the US or their allies is not acceptable i.e. the ‘buffer’ between their troops and US and their allies must still exist.
I can only interpret this to mean that if the NK fires missiles (nuclear armed very unlikely – Scary because that means firing them over Japan’s south) that land in the proximity of Guam, China will live with the US blasting the hell out of NK with conventional weapons. I can’t imagine them being OK with NK being ‘nuked’.
In a nutshell
Pinned Tweet
Claude Taylor
Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
Trump just wings it. Sometimes that works. Often it doesn’t. Now he’s “winging” an international crisis involving use of nuclear weapons
So, having subjected the country to the PP debacle, Turnbull and the ministry are going to scamper away and concentrate on the important issues facing the country while others battle it out over SSM.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbulls-team-off-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-trail/news-story/75508baa61b9c7ca5eae8f6946fd558e
Since the Turnbull has been an utter failure at dealing with the issues that really matter to Australians, one can only conclude that the PP has been created as a big, expensive way of trying to divert people’s attention.
Vic:
Real Time today should be fun. 😀
CTar1
China will not be okay with the Korean peninsula being at risk in any way.
Seriously hope that the US and China ate sorting this out.
Meanwhile wtf are the US waiting for with respect to Trump. He is an unstable narcissist.sigh….
Fess
Do you know who are on the panel?
citizen
Washing their hands like Pontius Pilate.
“This is enough to put you off your breakfast – Tony Abbott in a leather jacket!”
From the George Christensen collection?
No way is that thing comparable to the Fonz or even Turnbull – theirs were brown for starters.
Vic:
http://www.hbo.com/real-time-with-bill-maher
Looks like a good panel.
briefly @ #4 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 6:13 am
I mentioned this earlier in the week when Anne Summers appeared on RN Breakfast with Fran Kelly.
It was a fascinating program segment and I will get hold of the full text of her lecture and read it with great interest.
The lecture is being repeated in Melbourne too.
CTar1,
Maybe those holding a same sex wedding should have to erect warning signs on the roads around the venue and provide details of a “safe” detour route so that unsuspecting motorists don’t accidentally stumble on the event.
C@tmomma @ #13 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 7:20 am
Fucking Matthewson is just getting a last kick in by regurgitating the old smears and indulging in false equivalence before the whole rotten House of the Lying Rodent (in which she was so integral) renders her more of a pathetic irrelevance. She should be shunned, in the biblical sense.
C,@t
Agree wholeheartedly re Paula Matthewson.
Trump reminds me of Abbott with the shirt-fronting of Putin.
Utter bullshit from angry ‘little’ men who have real self-image issues
rhwombat
I don’t read her crap.