Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 28
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  1. a r @ #1293 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    Zeh @ #1280 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 11:56 am

    @a r: This is the cause of the url rewrites.

    They would’ve had the 2nd option ticked, the 1st is the way to go however.

    From the description it’s not entirely clear what that option does. What does it replace the non-https content with?

    The first option is the one to use, instead of loading the http content in (would cause ssl warnings), show a hyperlink to it.
    They would have the second option enabled which just boils down to a simple string replace ‘http’ with ‘https’

  5. JoshButler: parent can’t apply for citizenship on behalf of adult child, Italian consulate employee says twitter.com/albericie/stat…

  7. Fess

    However as leader the Plebiscite was all Abbott. So not being bound by the plebiscite shows how useless it is. Self admitting by any LNP MP’s ammunition for Labor good sense in blocking

  8. ChristineMilne: @KJBar It does not pass the pub test that only Senators have been caught up in this dual citizenship rule. ⅓
    ChristineMilne: Pretty obvious that rush to the High Court is in hope of a ruling which will save the Govt majority of 1 in Reps. Time to focus on Reps.⅔
    ChristineMilne: Which MPs in Reps have produced no evidence? 3/3

  9. lizzie @ #1275 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 11:43 am

    I don’t think Barnaby is helping Canavan much, but now we may know the reason for the citizenship change?

    [The Deputy Prime Minister denied Senator Canavan’s mother applied for Italian citizenship on his behalf at the same time as his father was sentenced to seven years’ jail for fraud.

    Bryan Michael Canavan was sentenced to more than seven years’ jail in 2007 for embezzling almost $1.6 million from food giant Nestle Australia.

    Canavan and other man, Phillip Michael Gardiner, pleaded guilty to two counts of fraud which took place between January 2001 and May 2004.

    “I don’t particularly want to go into the details of that,” Mr Joyce said. “What that can show you is the incredible character of a person such as Matthew Canavan, that he is, you know, in tougher times he has come through as an exemplary character and exemplary person.”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/matt-canavan-citizenship-resignation-barnaby-joyce-defends-exemplary-person-amid-new-questions-20170725-gxis6e.html

    Au contraire Bananaby! I would say that the apple doesn’t fall far from the Canavan tree. The NAIF seems to me a fraud on the taxpayer on an epic scale!

  10. Guytaur:

    That’s why opponents of SSM are pushing for a plebiscite. Even if it gets majority yes vote, they aren’t bound to honour the outcome. Just a ridiculous WOFTAM.

  12. Lizzie, I mean, Barnaby Joyce is predicating his assessment of Canavan on the assumption that getting to the Senate and up the greasy pole to be Minister of Resources shows great character on Matt’s behalf. Whereas, in contradistinction to that rosy picture, and we only have to look at Trump and Turnbull and many others to see that an ability to facilitate sharp practices under the noses of the unwary will also allow you to go far in this world.

  13. [WillowGhost‏ @TheWillowGhost · 17m17 minutes ago

    If u think Law should be changed because pollies have been caught out, just think of the hoops you have to jump thru for Centrelink or ATO.

    ]

  14. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 2m2 minutes ago
    Abbott says MPs are “honour bound” not to honour his un-binding of MPs on SSM in 2015 bc of the election promise re a non-binding plebiscite

  15. Good to see proper timestamps today!! I quite like the sort by newest approach. It is similar to Facebook, where you see the newest, and can often find it hard to locate earlier posts. However, the problem is that there just too many posts!
    We need a system of threads, perhaps using a descriptive title, that could be folded down, concertina-fashion.
    Refreshing the page lands the view at the current newest – I would like the refresh to have an option to go go the comment that was being viewed earlier, as in the original style. this would make following the arguments in order simpler.
    Perhaps some type of title for an “original” comment could be practised. Relevant comments could use the title as a header, and then the title might be located by a search function.

  17. JoshButler: parent can’t apply for citizenship on behalf of adult child, Italian consulate employee says twitter.com/albericie/stat…

    hehehe

    By the way, are any of youse able to see my posts? They seem disappear into the ether, somewhere out there.

    Couldn’t find BK’s morning patrol, except for cartoons.

    And why don’t I have page numbers, or time stamps, or anything else for that matter?

    Reposting: using chrome and win10

    Now the typeface is 2pt. What is going on?

  20. Zeh @ #1300 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    The first option is the one to use, instead of loading the http content in (would cause ssl warnings), show a hyperlink to it.

    That doesn’t sound so great. Even Google downplays the risk of mixed content when only images are involved:

    Insecure images degrade the security of your site, but they are not as dangerous as other types of mixed content.

    It sounds like maybe the third option is the most user-friendly. But only if ‘ignore non-https content’ means “go ahead and tagify the image links anyways” and not “don’t bother trying to tagify these in the first place”.

  24. kezza2,
    I can see your comments as well. Don’t go! Feisty women, prepared to take it up to the man, are a necessity here!

  26. Itza
    Got a four-day break, end of night shift’s great.
    Had to stay awake to drop the car in for new tyres.

    But gunna hit the hay soon.

    Jeezus this is hard to see, like typing in the dark. Although the comments appear in 12pt or so, at least.

  27. a r @ #1319 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 1:13 pm

    Zeh @ #1300 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    The first option is the one to use, instead of loading the http content in (would cause ssl warnings), show a hyperlink to it.

    That doesn’t sound so great. Even Google downplays the risk of mixed content when only images are involved:

    Insecure images degrade the security of your site, but they are not as dangerous as other types of mixed content.

    It sounds like maybe the third option is the most user-friendly. But only if ‘ignore non-https content’ means “go ahead and tagify the image links anyways” and not “don’t bother trying to tagify these in the first place”.

    Indeed the 3rd options allows the image to be linked, and degrades your ssl security.

    Interestingly, the same developers that make wpDiscuz, do a forum, wpForo, with a paid ($25) crossposting plugin
    blog comment > forum post
    forum post > blog comment
    https://gvectors.com/product/wpforo-cross-posting/

    I still believe their comment system is flawed however, a definite improvement in the mess that was the previous system. Still not as good as your browser extension.

    Due to the pagination problem, I would suggest the best option is to have a flat thread with live updates, and use the ‘[Load rest of all comments] Button’, with about 20-30 comments showing on first load (comments loading in live do not hide older ones to preserve this number, but that is desired).
    The load all would mean a lot of scrolling through 1000 comments… Performance wise, probably still cheaper than pagination, and doesnt break with the live comments loading in…

  29. I wonder if this is Turnbull’s chief moral guidance quote

    The most useful thing about a principle is that it can be sacrificed to expediency.

    W. Somerset Maugham

  31. From today’s Crikey email:

    In fact, Canavan’s case compares poorly with those of Ludlam and Waters. They, too, didn’t know they were citizens of New Zealand and Canada, respectively, courtesy of their parents. Ludlam at least was a kid when he was brought by his family to live in Australia, where he was naturalised as an Australian. He can remember being in New Zealand. Waters was a baby, the child of Australians temporarily in Canada who moved back home soon after. Waters acquired Canadian citizenship like you’d pick up a cold while travelling. Indeed, the relevant Canadian laws were changed just after her birth — as the law stood when she was born, she wouldn’t have been a Canadian, but the new law was retroactive.

    Canavan, however, can’t blame being a baby or a kid. He was an adult, in his 20s , when in circumstances that are difficult to quite work out, his mother acquired Italian citizenship — possibly something to do with Canavan’s father pleading guilty to a major theft — and in doing so, somehow, acquired it for him as well.

    Wouldn’t it be funny if the High Court doesn’t support Canavan/Barnaby’s take on things.

  33. I’ve tried to join in several times today, but Chrome crashed out on me, and the site seemed to keep changing in unpredictable ways, e.g., flinging me back in time and pages. Bleggh!

  34. Lawrence: Emmy nominations for entire @MSNBC prime time lineup @allinwithchris @maddow @TheLastWord announced today. Congrats team!

  35. C@t. Idle threat . . . I sort of just meant until this is site is fixed.

    Guytaur – hey man, I already touch type, except when I look at the keys.

    Bemused. I seemed to lose a great slab of comments between 9:15am and about 10:30am. Anyone else experienced anything like this? Your comments or others? Most of mine went nowhere.

    But, hey, at least I’ve got a time stamp now!

  38. K2

    Yeah me too. Though I am not a fast touch typer. I suffered being only guy in typing class in high school. I made the decision to learn because I could see keyboards being a must use for some time.

  42. Why do people just accept Waters’ ‘it changed a week after my birth, how was I supposed to know?” defence?

    I’m sure Australian citizenship laws have changed several times since I was born. I certainly know that the laws governing Lithuania (my other citizenship possibility) have.

    I would also think that your parents would be MORE aware of changes happening around the time of your birth than otherwise – legislation doesn’t change overnight, so you’d expect that anyone paying even mild attention to the issues would be aware a change was in the air.

    Waters covers both bases – at the same time she blames a recent law change, she also blames a 70 year old existing law for her predicament. She can’t have it both ways.

  43. Roberts has some decent advisors apparently.

    His Stat dec states:

    When I ran for parliament, I looked into whether I was a dual citizen.

    It also states that he is not a dual citizen, as at 21 July 2017.

    Those two statements, placed together on the page, seem like they are linked. They are not.

    It does NOT state that his review found that he was not a citizen when he ran. It does not state that he was validly elected.

    He is refusing to release his renunciation document, and wants to set up an appropriate investigation, which would presumably not reach any conclusions until after the next election.

    He could have renounced citizenship at some stage in between running as a Senator, and the 21st of July. Most likely this would have been some time between Ludlam’s announcement and the 21st. His stat dec would still be telling the truth and nothing but the truth. It just wouldn’t be the whole truth.

  44. Monica Lynagh
    It’s weird. I’ve got comment numbers but the time thingy is x minutes ago.

    Maybe they’ve accessed our brains and are streamlining for our idiosyncracies? Spooky.

    At least that irritating “buffering” thingy on the RHS has disappeared.

  46. bemused
    There is, as you have described, a great slab of posts between 9:15 and 10:30.
    I have them all in an ordinary seeming way.
    I am running Window 10 and Firefox.
    I still have CCCP and STFU running which appear to have little or no impact apart from removing Mr. William’s picture from the page header.

  47. Zoomster:

    And however way she wants to justify it, she still should’ve made sure she dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s at the time of her nomination. As you’ve pointed out a cursory check would’ve raised the possibility that she may be a dual citizen, thereby necessitating further exploration.

  49. zoomster

    “Why do people just accept Waters’ ‘it changed a week after my birth, how was I supposed to know?” defence?”

    Because it’s perfectly feasible. If you’ve been brought up on stories of your birth, and how you could be a citizen of this country or that, but you have to take steps to do so, why on earth would you think anything to the contrary.

    Obviously, for Labor to have such stringent rules regarding citizenship then something or other must have happened, or nearly happened, to one of their candidates.

    The Greens are green in this regard.

    I can also see Ludlam’s point of view. He thought by taking out Australian citizenship, it would have superseded any other citizenship; but it didn’t. As he has discovered.

    Those two did the right thing and resigned, regrettably, but they did so.

    I wonder why you have a particular concern for Waters? I think Canavan’s justification is much more open to question than either of the Green fellows. Where’s your concern there? Why are you questioning his determination to see it through the courts than to do the right thing, and resign?

    Like you pointed out, it’s not difficult to find out.

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