Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Another stable Newspoll, as both major parties gain a point on the primary vote at the expense of the various “others”.

Another fortnight (or so), another 53-47 to Labor result from Newspoll. This time out the primary votes are Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 9% (down two). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are slightly improved, with approval up two to 34% and disapproval down two to 54%, and his lead as preferred prime minister out from 41-33 to 43-32, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at 33% approval and 53% disapproval.

UPDATE: Paywalled Australian report here. Kevin Bonham: “Same 2PP five #Newspolls in a row, a new all-time record. #auspol”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

709 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 15
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  1. The argument about a public debate on SSM that I don’t quite understand is this: Even if a free vote is held in Parliament, there will be the same kind of public debate won’t there?

    Why would there be? A free vote would likely mean SSM would become law and that’s it. Done. Just like anything else and I doubt the public would bat an eyelid about it all.

    But you turn the issue into a matter of an election, then suddenly it isn’t all so clear cut, esp as there is no bipartisan support for marriage equality. A whole different kettle of fish.

  2. Yes I get what you mean Confessions, but my best guess is this: Let’s suppose for the moment Turnbull manages to navigate a pathway to a free vote in Parliament. Well, I would argue that from that moment until the vote actually took place, the various groups – particularly those opposed – would mount an advertising campaign intended to lobby MPs, especially those in electorates (such as Muslim dominated electorates in Western Sydney) where the issue could result in considerable electoral damage. Perhaps this advertising campaign/debate wouldn’t be quite as protracted as the one for a plebiscite, but surely there would be such a campaign/debate.

  3. As Warren Entsch said (earlier post), a non compulsory non binding postal plebiscite is complete rubbish if for no other reason that at least one side will not be happy with the result and any number of challenges can/will be mounted to reject the outcome.

    It will not put the issue to rest, either way, and is yet another thing they’ll be shackled with, dragging, dragging. They just do flawed so well it’s amazing.

  4. itzadream @ #553 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 5:47 pm

    As Warren Entsch said (earlier post), a non compulsory non binding postal plebiscite is complete rubbish if for no other reason that at least one side will not be happy with the result and any number of challenges can/will be mounted to reject the outcome.
    It will not put the issue to rest, either way, and is yet another thing they’ll be shackled with, dragging, dragging. They just do flawed so well it’s amazing.

    The only beneficiary would be Australia Post.

  5. Alias:

    It could be argued that what we’re seeing with this postal plebiscite nonsense is exactly that mounted campaign to lobby Coalition MPs.

    The religious fundies in the Libs will not tolerate a free vote, presumably because they know it would pass, esp with Labor MPs all voting as a bloc in support. Hence this postal plebiscite nonsense, which I’m guessing is supposed to represent a cheaper version of an actual plebiscite which is govt policy.

  6. alias @ #552 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 5:46 pm

    Yes I get what you mean Confessions, but my best guess is this: Let’s suppose for the moment Turnbull manages to navigate a pathway to a free vote in Parliament. Well, I would argue that from that moment until the vote actually took place, the various groups – particularly those opposed – would mount an advertising campaign intended to lobby MPs, especially those in electorates (such as Muslim dominated electorates in Western Sydney) where the issue could result in considerable electoral damage. Perhaps this advertising campaign/debate wouldn’t be quite as protracted as the one for a plebiscite, but surely there would be such a campaign/debate.

    Every Labor candidate at the next election will be committed to support marriage equality – not just a free vote. The ACL can do its worst, but any campaign against a sitting Coalition member will still almost certainly result in a marriage equality supporter winning the seat.

    Like everywhere else in the world where marriage equality has been legislated, once it happens, it’s over. It can be brought on for a vote quickly, which would be in the best interests of the Coalition if it was minded to bring it on at all because it would be the loser in a protracted public lead-up. And then …. the vast majority of Australians will get on with their lives and turn to matters which remain important.

  7. What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).

    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.

    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.

    .

  8. tpof @ #556 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 5:58 pm

    alias @ #552 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 5:46 pm

    Yes I get what you mean Confessions, but my best guess is this: Let’s suppose for the moment Turnbull manages to navigate a pathway to a free vote in Parliament. Well, I would argue that from that moment until the vote actually took place, the various groups – particularly those opposed – would mount an advertising campaign intended to lobby MPs, especially those in electorates (such as Muslim dominated electorates in Western Sydney) where the issue could result in considerable electoral damage. Perhaps this advertising campaign/debate wouldn’t be quite as protracted as the one for a plebiscite, but surely there would be such a campaign/debate.

    Every Labor candidate at the next election will be committed to support marriage equality – not just a free vote. The ACL can do its worst, but any campaign against a sitting Coalition member will still almost certainly result in a marriage equality supporter winning the seat.
    Like everywhere else in the world where marriage equality has been legislated, once it happens, it’s over. It can be brought on for a vote quickly, which would be in the best interests of the Coalition if it was minded to bring it on at all because it would be the loser in a protracted public lead-up. And then …. the vast majority of Australians will get on with their lives and turn to matters which remain important.

    Labor cannot genuinely expect a free vote of Parliament unless Labor members have a free vote.
    As soon as Labor’s policy for a tied vote kicks in, it is difficult to see the Libs allowing their members a free vote.
    Any free vote will have to be before Labor’s new policy kicks in or it will be done by a Labor Govt.

  9. greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    Only because a large number have been duped into believing it will decide the issue. It won’t as it will not be binding on Parliament.

  10. GG:

    There is overwhelming public support for marriage equality. It’s our parliament which is lagging behind on this issue.

    Introducing into the ‘debate’ mechanisms by which we get to that point are just red herrings IMO.

  11. greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    In the latest poll you talk about the majority support was for a fictional “binding plebiscite”.

    The non-binding option had support in the mid teens.

  12. bemused @ #559 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:04 pm

    greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    Only because a large number have been duped into believing it will decide the issue. It won’t as it will not be binding on Parliament.

    Really?
    My view is that it’s one of those issues where support is apparently broad, but, not particularly deep.

  13. confessions @ #560 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:08 pm

    GG:

    There is overwhelming public support for marriage equality. It’s our parliament which is lagging behind on this issue.

    Introducing into the ‘debate’ mechanisms by which we get to that point are just red herrings IMO.

    fess,

    Public support is notoriously transient and changeable.

  15. Barney in Go Dau @ #561 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:09 pm

    greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    In the latest poll you talk about the majority support was for a fictional “binding plebiscite”.

    The non-binding option had support in the mid teens.

    Barney,

    All political polls are an indication of a mythical election that is supposedly being held next weekend. Doesn’t stop the commentariat speculating though.

  16. Public support is notoriously transient and changeable.

    On social issues, yes. Something I’m sure the plebiscite and anti-direct vote proponents are counting on.

  20. bemused @ #569 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    greensborough growler @ #567 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:16 pm

    bemused @ #564 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:12 pm

    GG
    BiGD answered you better than I did.
    I think everyone is aware of your position and its source.

    Yes, my passionate commitment to logic and reason is well known.

    More like superstition and unreason.

    Like you thinking he’ll survive on PB by whingeing about WB and abusing fellow posters?

  21. greensborough growler @ #565 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #561 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:09 pm

    greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    In the latest poll you talk about the majority support was for a fictional “binding plebiscite”.
    The non-binding option had support in the mid teens.

    Barney,
    All political polls are an indication of a mythical election that is supposedly being held next weekend. Doesn’t stop the commentariat speculating though.

    You can be very dishonest at times when you dissent.

    By including a third option that is not being proposed, you can not possible use the results to gauge support for the two real options one way or the other.

  22. Bemused:

    Labor cannot genuinely expect a free vote of Parliament unless Labor members have a free vote.
    As soon as Labor’s policy for a tied vote kicks in, it is difficult to see the Libs allowing their members a free vote.
    Any free vote will have to be before Labor’s new policy kicks in or it will be done by a Labor Govt.

    I suppose it depends on the state of the matter in the lead up to the next election. Labor’s position is already known. The Liberals will have to go into the next election promising to bind all its members to oppose it.

    In any case, if it comes on for a free vote before then, the whole issue will be done and dusted. If not, it will become a significant issue for some in the election campaign. Labor will be campaigning to implement marriage equality. The Coalition parties can take whatever position they want.

  24. Re a plebiscite:
    I came to position of opposing this on principle some time ago. Parliament has not gone out to the whole voting public with a questionnaire for 40 years and has only done so three times in its history.

    This is an issue which is really important to, at most, half the electorate and and the rest are vitally uninterested, although they may express one if really pushed. Governments, with the three exceptions mentioned, have made the most life changing decisions without seeking specific public endorsement other than where explicitly required by the Australian Constitution.

    Not this – not any issue – should be put to a plebiscite. And if the government was truly minded to do so, it should start with assisted dying, about which a hell of a lot more people have a much greater interest (given that we will all face death at some stage, and often in the most horrible, painful and undignified manner after the point where medical miracles no longer exist).

  26. Barney in Go Dau @ #571 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:22 pm

    greensborough growler @ #565 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #561 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:09 pm

    greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    In the latest poll you talk about the majority support was for a fictional “binding plebiscite”.
    The non-binding option had support in the mid teens.

    Barney,
    All political polls are an indication of a mythical election that is supposedly being held next weekend. Doesn’t stop the commentariat speculating though.

    You can be very dishonest at times when you dissent.

    By including a third option that is not being proposed, you can not possible use the results to gauge support for the two real options one way or the other.

    I love this concept that anyone who has a different opinion to you is dishonest. Maybe you need to learn to deal with alternative points of view. Just saying.

    They are only the allegedly “real” options being considered by you. Doesn’t mean there aren’t others.

  27. Things governments can get away with when there’s no Bill of Rights:

    Earlier this year, China beg[a]n assessing ways to ban VPNs and proxy servers in the country, and finally made it mandatory for individuals and organizations to register with the government in order to use such services. Now, Russia seems to be moving towards a similar decision as well.

    The bill to ban the use of tools such as proxy websites, proxy servers or virtual private networks (VPNs) in the country was passed by the State Duma (lower house) of the Russian Parliament on Friday. It is yet to be approved by the upper house and the President, but once done, the country’s internet service providers will need to block access to any providers of proxy services.

    https://www.neowin.net/news/russia-moves-closer-to-banning-the-use-of-proxies-and-vpns

  28. BiGD.
    “I loved this bit paraphrasing Morrison.

    Inequality is lessening but many people are unequally experiencing the lessening of this inequality which is lessening but not for everyone.”

    Orwell would be proud, perhaps to paraphrase.
    “All animals are unequal but some are more unequal than others”.

  29. Well, chaps and chapesses, I’ve had a good day.

    I planted some perennials under the weeping silver lime tree, filled the dishwasher, and BIG NEWS: Tilda the Scottie Terrier almost killed her first rat in the back garden. It ran past her and she snapped across its back (as terriers do). Then she wasn’t sure what to do next and sniffed its muzzle gently. It lay quietly and I decided its back was probably broken, so I fetched a handy spade and put it out of pain. Then took it to the rubbish. Tilda spent a half hour or so looking for it. It was in beautiful condition. We feed our rates well around here!

    Adani is doing some PR to prove what wonderful, caring people they are.

    Scientists and environmental campaigners generally agree that the mine will be a disaster for the already-fragile Great Barrier Reef.

    But the federal and Queensland governments are both huge fans of this project, which they say will create 10,000 jobs (it won’t). So you’d think the shiny new coal mine would get plenty of mentions in a four page ad in one of the country’s highest selling newspapers.

    Let’s Take A Look.

    http://junkee.com/adani-ad-coal-fairfax/114375

  32. You can be very dishonest at times when you dissent.

    Sorry to go all Pollyannaish, but…
    Given how much time has been spent today discussing the unnecessary recourse to personal put-down and disparagement, most particularly in relation to Bemused, it would helpful if more of us would also refrain. One can disagree quite vehemently with a statement by a poster without dumping on the poster at a personal level.

  33. greensborough growler @ #580 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:41 pm

    BK @ #575 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:35 pm

    The ABC is not going to lay down over the ridiculous and bullying criticism by The Australian.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-24/how-to-navigate-the-research-on-domestic-violence/8738738

    There’s a first time for everything.

    Despite her family connections, I think Julia Baird is one of the most incisive and thoughtful people working in television today. Nobody handles the Drum better than her.

  35. TPOF @ #583 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    greensborough growler @ #580 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:41 pm

    BK @ #575 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:35 pm

    The ABC is not going to lay down over the ridiculous and bullying criticism by The Australian.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-24/how-to-navigate-the-research-on-domestic-violence/8738738

    There’s a first time for everything.

    Despite her family connections, I think Julia Baird is one of the most incisive and thoughtful people working in television today. Nobody handles the Drum better than her.

    I was being rhetorical.
    Like you, I am a big admirer of julia baird.

  36. More on Morrison’s equality line, from the SMH

    “The OECD’s most recent economic survey of Australia, released in March this year, challenges the Treasurer’s claim.

    “The Gini coefficient has been drifting up and households in upper income brackets have benefited disproportionately from Australia’s long period of economic growth,” the paper found.

    “Real incomes for the top quintile of households grew by more than 40 per cent between 2004 and 2014 while those for the lowest quintile only grew by about 25 per cent. ”

    ‘Inequality hasn’t gotten worse’: Morrison rejects Labor tax pitch
    The Turnbull government has denied inequality is worsening in Australia and dismissed Labor’s latest tax change push as the “politics of envy”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-rejects-labor-claims-of-worsening-inequality-as-bill-shorten-plans-tax-overhaul-20170724-gxhf7r.html?btis

    It is like their campaign against renewables,it doesn’t match the lived experience of voters.

  37. greensborough growler @ #576 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #571 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:22 pm

    greensborough growler @ #565 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #561 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:09 pm

    greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).
    This may be due to the continuing failure of political leadership on the issue.
    The fact that this issue is used as a political toy by all sides of the political spectrum indicates that it’s really a third rate issue in terms of people’s perceptions and political priorities.
    .

    In the latest poll you talk about the majority support was for a fictional “binding plebiscite”.
    The non-binding option had support in the mid teens.

    Barney,
    All political polls are an indication of a mythical election that is supposedly being held next weekend. Doesn’t stop the commentariat speculating though.

    You can be very dishonest at times when you dissent.
    By including a third option that is not being proposed, you can not possible use the results to gauge support for the two real options one way or the other.

    I love this concept that anyone who has a different opinion to you is dishonest. Maybe you need to learn to deal with alternative points of view. Just saying.
    They are only the allegedly “real” options being considered by you. Doesn’t mean there aren’t others.

    Nothing about agreeing or disagreeing.

    You are trying to interpret a poll in a way that it is not possible to, one way or the other.

    That is where your dishonesty lies.

  38. GG

    Im genuinely curious. I know you dont agree with gay marriage but I dont think Ive ever seen you state why you dont. Care to say why? Im not interested in debating the merits, just want to hear your objections.

  40. lizzie

    While I was waiting for my son’s soccer game to begin (he gets dropped off to warm up two hours before the game…) I looked around a couple of nurseries.

    At the first one I visited, I found a climbing hydrangea – I have been searching for one for months, including on line, and they’re hard to find.

    On the way back to the soccer ground, I passed a Bunnings. I wasn’t going to stop in, because they rarely have what I want, but I had a few minutes to spare, so I thought, what the hey…

    I found a garrya elliptica (again, been looking for one for months) and a climber which I’ve read about but never seen – Clystostema callistigoides – and have been looking for for thirty years. (I think it’s probably because it’s really too cold for it here, but I’ll find an unfrosty area and give it a try…)

    So today was spent planting the garrya and the hydrangea, and doing a little bit of rock work around the latter…

  41. grimace @ #573 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:25 pm

    greensborough growler @ #568 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:17 pm

    confessions @ #566 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:15 pm

    Public support is notoriously transient and changeable.

    On social issues, yes. Something I’m sure the plebiscite and anti-direct vote proponents are counting on.

    And, why they are petrified of any public campaign.

    Because of the hate and bigotory it would unleash on them.

    Plenty of hate and bigotry being directed against Christians right now!

  42. Oh, and – whilst I’m thinking of rare events — when I went to let the birds out this morning I found one of the roosters swimming in the water trough.

    Chooks don’t swim, so I thought he must be in trouble – but no, as I approached he popped out and gave himself a shake…

  45. Dan Gulberry @ #589 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:48 pm

    greensborough growler @ #557 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    What most here on PB don’t appreciate is that poll after poll re-confirms that most Australians want to have a vote/Plebiscite/Referendum on SSM (as measured by polls).

    Not when they are made aware that –
    a) It will cost over $160 million;
    b) the result is non-binding.

    That info has been out there for awhile. Yet, the polls still show an overwhelming public support for a vote by the public of some sort.

  46. Ides:

    You asked me to remind you about US transport blogs and Trump’s supposed infrastructure plans. This is me giving you that reminder 🙂

  47. Ides of March @ #588 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:48 pm

    GG

    Im genuinely curious. I know you dont agree with gay marriage but I dont think Ive ever seen you state why you dont. Care to say why? Im not interested in debating the merits, just want to hear your objections.

    Not that difficult.
    Marriage is a socia/legal l arrangement between a man and a woman.
    I’ve posted my views any number of times.

  48. zoomster

    I had a garrya elliptica espaliered on a fence down in Warrnambool. It looked good alongside the drive. Rare to see frost down there. Good luck with your climbers – never heard of the Clysostema. My latest project is a little sub-tropical corner, in preparation for global warming (sarcasm?).

  49. greensborough growler @ #570 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:20 pm

    bemused @ #569 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    greensborough growler @ #567 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 6:16 pm

    bemused @ #564 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 6:12 pm

    GG
    BiGD answered you better than I did.
    I think everyone is aware of your position and its source.

    Yes, my passionate commitment to logic and reason is well known.

    More like superstition and unreason.

    Like you thinking he’ll survive on PB by whingeing about WB and abusing fellow posters?

    I plead guilty to being the main target for abuse on this site.

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