Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.

Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.

Among the other findings:

• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).

• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.

• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,344 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. @ Confessions

    People may be disappointed, but why would that make them change their vote? Greens voters will continue to vote for the party whose policies most closely match their own, not the guys who are best at filling out forms.

  6. Steve777
    ..I always though they had a strong “soft left” wing that was further left than Labor and similar to the space now occupied by the Greens..

    That’s how I remember them.

  7. @ Confessions – Towns like Perth are able to avoid tollroads while cities aren’t because of population and population density.

    All of Australia’s toll roads exist in the 3 cities. Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin are all too small to have tollroads.

  8. Question
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:04 pm
    Yeah, but he got to shag Marilyn Monroe.

    Yeah, on the moon.

    I don’t think they quite achieved that, but I understand that the Earth did move.

  9. Policy paralysis at the federal level leads to large local government involvement in measures to tackle climate change:

    Thirty-five councils representing three million Australians signed up to the Cities Power Partnership at Mount Majura Solar Farm in Canberra on Wednesday.

    The agreement sees town and cities across Australia promise action on climate change at a local level in the face of federal government paralysis on the issue.

    Climate Council chief professor Tim Flannery said federal inaction had created “true leadership”.

    “What we seeing is people stepping up to the plate saying if you won’t do it, we’ll do it,” Professor Flannery said.

    Climate Change Council chief executive Amanda McKenzie believed local action could create the “momentum that’s required to tackle climate change”.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/mt-majura-solar-farm-will-save-lives-operators-say-20170718-gxe1gs.html

  10. People may be disappointed, but why would that make them change their vote?

    Because these latest shenanigans and stuff-ups make the Greens look just like those dreaded major parties the Greens are always insisting they are not like. Plus the party has an apparatchik type leader with none of the authentic passion for signature Greens issues as previous leaders have had. These are the things that are being posted by my Greens-voting friends on social media.

  12. I understand that the Earth did move.

    It was inspirational.
    (And they had to do something with all those German rocket scientists they had lying around after WW2).

  13. Confessions
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:01 pm
    Grimace:

    I didn’t think so. How are we able to avoid tolls when other cities can’t?
    *************************************************************

    Corruption

  14. Confessions
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:14 pm
    People may be disappointed, but why would that make them change their vote?

    Because these latest shenanigans and stuff-ups make the Greens look just like those dreaded major parties the Greens are always insisting they are not like. Plus the party has an apparatchik type leader with none of the authentic passion for signature Greens issues as previous leaders have had. These are the things that are being posted by my Greens-voting friends on social media.

    Fess

    Have you asked your Greens voting friends who they would vote for if not the Greens? On the face of it, there’s not too many places people of that persuasion can go.

  16. One of the candidates vying to be the next West Australian senator for the Liberal Party has described supporters of refugee-friendly policies as “a bunch of cockroaches” swarming all over his former electorate.

    Michael Sutherland, the former Speaker in the WA parliament who lost his inner city seat in March, made the comments at a Liberal Party event in Sydney last month.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/refugee-and-fracking-activists-a-bunch-of-cockroaches-says-liberal-pursuing-senate-vacancy-20170718-gxdxqb.html

  17. Darn:

    One is swearing to vote independent. Problem with that (as I pointed out to her), is living in a safe Liberal seat the choices in the HoR anyways, is that left-leaning candidates are very thin on the ground. Her options would be vote 1 Labor, vote 2 Greens which is what I had to do last election even though I am thoroughly appalled at the populism of the Greens. Or vote for some numpty religious or rightwing bigot party. She hasn’t replied to my comment and presumably won’t.

  18. Poroti:

    I’m so pleased we don’t have pokies here. How good is it to walk into a pub and not hear the digital screeching of the machines and see people mindlessly feeding their hard-earned into machines that they’ll never get back?

  20. Zoomster
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:31 pm
    VE

    So how do you explain the fall/stagnation in the Greens vote recently? Have their policies changed?

    Zoom

    Are you referring to the 0.1% drop in their intended vote since the last election (according to Bludgertrack)? If so, I wouldn’t have thought that’s something for them to be worrying too much about.

  21. Six years today is the sad anniversary of my dogs Ajax and Stamp being stolen by a man in a car picking them up of the road when they got out of my Mum’s yard.

    May his soul rot in the outer rings of Hell, the bastard.

  23. Voice Endeavour
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:11 pm
    @ Confessions – Towns like Perth are able to avoid tollroads while cities aren’t because of population and population density.

    All of Australia’s toll roads exist in the 3 cities. Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin are all too small to have tollroads.
    **********************************************************
    Noumea (New Caledonia) has a toll road and it’s much smaller than any of the cities that you listed.

  27. Is this a reference to the ACL’s latest proposal today?

    No it’s a Nationals Senator who successfully had a motion passed at the LNP conference over the weekend, promising to kick it along when parliament resumes.

  32. puffy, the magic dragon. @ #921 Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:42 pm

    Six years today is the sad anniversary of my dogs Ajax and Stamp being stolen by a man in a car picking them up of the road when they got out of my Mum’s yard.
    May his soul rot in the outer rings of Hell, the bastard.

    How very, very sad for you.
    Mucho commiserations.
    😢

  33. More good news – abbott is back –

    Tony Abbott has returned from a holiday abroad and immediately resumed his campaign to destabilise Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership, this time by criticising Tuesday’s national security upheaval as “a massive bureaucratic change”.

    Claiming that as a former prime minister he had a “duty” to speak out, Mr Abbott dared Malcolm Turnbull to release the advice that suggested the creation of a Home Affairs portfolio was a good idea.

    Using his regular Wednesday afternoon radio spot on 2GB, Mr Abbott said he had considered creating a similar national security super portfolio when he was prime minister.

    …Mr Abbott said Mr Turnbull should release all official advice to justify his decision to move ASIO and the AFP from the Attorney-General’s department to Peter Dutton’s Immigration and Border Protection Department and rebadge it the Home Affairs Department.

    Mr Abbott’s cynicism was in lock-step with that of the Labor Party, the Greens and many security experts who viewed the move as being more about politics than enhancing national security.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/tony-abbott-calls-national-security-shakeup-a-massive-bureaucratic-change-20170719-gx

  34. Geez PM, great slabs of Turnbull, Dutton, and Joyce promoting the new super ministry, with about 5 seconds of Shorten (and Abbott!) for balance.

  35. A police officer involved in a shooting in NSW can be compelled to give answers to internal police investigators.

    The relevant officer will normally claim duress at the start of the interview. In my experience the interviews are friendly. Absolute privilege applies so no one outside the police will know the details of the interview.

    The only other compelling place is a coronial inquiry but evidence there if incriminating is not available to be used elsewhere.

  36. phoenixred @ #875 Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    Trump Is Showing The World What A Weak American Presidency Looks Like
    More than just the health care collapse, Donald Trump has so far failed to bring the “Art of the Deal” to the White House.
    Six months into a tumultuous term, President Donald Trump has failed to put his hands on the levers of American power, showing that occupying even the highest office doesn’t automatically wield influence.
    The White House has lost control of its foreign policy to the military and to allies who can’t work with a globally loathed American leader even if they wanted to. He has lost control of his domestic policy to Congress, which has been unable to give him a signature win despite Republicans controlling both chambers. He has lost control of his own aides to leaks and investigations, of his old television cronies to spiteful personal feuds, and most of all of the narrative of an “America First” presidency with a coherent vision or promise.
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/tariniparti/trump-is-showing-the-world-what-a-weak-american-presidency?utm_term=.ogjoBN32V#.kojX0eL32

    Thanks for that link. I found the following particularly compelling, indicating that just as some states in the USA are bypassing Trump for the legislation they want, world leaders are doing the same:

    World leaders have also taken to looking beyond Trump in their relations with America. The presence of two special guests — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Vice President Mike Pence — at last week’s National Governors Association summer meeting in Providence, R.I., underscored the opportunity others have to step up and fill whatever leadership void exists in Washington.

    Trudeau’s appearance at the gathering marked the first time a foreign head of state has addressed the NGA — a sign perhaps that key figures on the world stage see value in forging stronger relationships with governors and bypassing the Trump administration. His speech to the governors emphasized trade, an issue where he and Trump have different views.

  37. Thanks for that Dave. Go Abbott! Silence on Turnbull’s baiting of him and his supporters by pegging Menzies as a moderate, but trying to out-Abbott on national security is a bridge too far and worthy of comment.

    And how refreshment to see the media now calling whiteanting as such. Where were they on this 6 years ago…

  38. Big, sprawling, congested cities are probably more likely to accept toll roads, albiet grudgingly. Sydney’s fragmented geography helps builders of toll roads, being dissected by waterways and deep valleys which were unsuitable for development. It has lots of choke points which are difficult to avoid.

  42. Steve:

    I would actually say Syd’s topography requires more and effective public transport due to those choke points.

  43. Confessions
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 6:01 pm
    Is this a reference to the ACL’s latest proposal today?

    No it’s a Nationals Senator who successfully had a motion passed at the LNP conference over the weekend, promising to kick it along when parliament resumes.

    That’s interesting because another article by the ACL’s Shelton suggests that he attended the conference. His brand of christianity seems to be firmly in the RW camp (perhaps even the RWNJ camp as he also has an article about his appearance on the Sky News program “Outsiders” with Ross Cameron and Rowan Dean).

  44. Why the security super ministry under Dutton us as dumb as a box of hammers.
    Secure, nimble and agile it aint.
    1) Management theory dictates that the more layers in an entities management structure the less able the entity to adapt to threats, and the capacity for innovation is reduced.
    2) Data from the agencies will likely be focused at the top, because data is the source of power. However, this focus will compromise the security of all the agencies to hacking and leaks. Instead of just a single agency being compromised, they all will.
    3) As with our power network, or the Internet, networks of discrete, self-contained functional entities are less vulnerable to failure or hacking.
    4) Reduced group intelligence. Instead of a number of ministers being responsible for strategic thinking re the rise of threats, such as cyber security or artificial intelligence, we will just have a single unimaginative ex Qld plod.
    5) Dutton’s first order of duty will probably be to pull everyone off anti-terrorism work and get them chasing Getup!

  46. I imagine Duttons promotion could go poorly if the current polls hold til the election. Losing a minister in such a high position and responsible for so much crap decisions and policies could really fire up GetUp. Noting they already have a vendetta for him. Plus losing a high minister normally is a pretty big slap in the face and is a pretty delicious feeling for a voter to have.

  47. Shellbell:

    No. It had a tram line (north sydney to narrabeen + branch to manly). It was originaly supposed to have a rail line under Bradfield’s plan but was too $$ at the time. A tram was considered the better option. It was ripped up later. What is now the two eastern lanes of the harbour bridge was designed to carry train lines and used to carry the trams.

  48. Big, sprawling, congested cities are probably more likely to accept toll roads, albiet grudgingly.

    I think Perth would qualify as sprawling. It’s just that it sprawls north to south, obviously constrained in the east by the Perth Hills.

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