Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Apart from some slight improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, Newspoll continues to record no change since before the budget.

The latest Newspoll is absolutely unchanged on the post-budget result from a fortnight ago, with primary votes of Coalition 36%, Labor 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%, and Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is up for the third survey in a row, this time by two points to 35%, although he’s also up a point on disapproval to 54%. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 53%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 45-33, compared with 44-31 last time. As always, the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by The Australian from a sample of around 1700.

UPDATE: Here’s the BludgerTrack update I should have run a couple of days ago:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. (Catching up on last night in the previous thread.)

    J R
    I think I can see the answer right there… if the argument is in fairness Labor wins

    Re the Tingle thing, a few weeks ago on Insiders she did say, perhaps in a moment of lucidity or big picture thinking, that whoever addresses inequality will win. I posted on it at the time.

    The way I hear her is that she is saying:

    * Turnbull is politically correct in trying to annul Labor’s winning positions on education and medicare, pulling hard back from Abbott’s RWNJ shift right
    * Labor needs not to deny that they are their policies, or Labor-lite, but claim full credit for them, and then
    * campaign that they, Labor, are the only ones who can and will do it properly and fairly**.

    That’s what I heard her say yesterday, but maybe it’s all in the ear of the belistener.

    ** The NBN cockup is as good an example as any for any dumbfk to understand what the ‘we will do it better, faster, cheaper argument’ amounts to – a huge con.

  2. Cat

    Of course a better Australian example if Rudd with the apology. That symbolism counted and has resulted in the Uluru statement as Recognition substance grew out of space of symbolism the apology created

  3. Guytaur,
    Macron not exactly from the pure ideology camp.

    That is the point with Macron. He has said so, himself. He is not about ‘Right’ or ‘Left’, he thinks those concepts are redundant and get in the way of good policy-making.

    He also gets this much:

    “Donald Trump, the Turkish president or the Russian president see relationships in terms of a balance of power, Macron said. “That doesn’t bother me. I don’t believe in diplomacy by public abuse, but in my bilateral dialogues I won’t let anything pass.”

    So his meeting with Putin this week should be an interesting one to watch. Especially the handshake. 🙂

  4. Guytaur,
    Of course a better Australian example if Rudd with the apology. That symbolism counted and has resulted in the Uluru statement as Recognition substance grew out of space of symbolism the apology created.

    Even Dutton belatedly realised that. He was not there, pointedly, for the Apology, but now says he regrets that because he has seen how much it’s symbolism changed the on-the-ground reality for Indigenous Australians.

    Which you could say is simply Dutton doing more Liberal leadership positioning, but at least he said it.

  5. Senate estimates are on again this week, included in Health, perfectly timed.
    From Crikey’s early bird:
    ‘Senate estimates continues this week, with Health, Treasury, Employment and Defence mandarins in the hot seat. Will anyone ask Health bureaucrats about the possibility of scrapping the private health insurance rebate (outlined above)?’

  6. There seems to be a big hoo-ha for a 1 point gain in Mal’s net approval:
    “Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is up for the third survey in a row, this time by two points to 35%, although he’s also up a point on disapproval to 54%.”
    However, a 1 point net drop for Mal is all but unchanged in preferred PM:
    “Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 45-33, compared with 44-31 last time”
    Almost Shanahanesque.

  7. TheKennyDevine: BREAKING: Media enters third day of concerted effort to convince Australians that Australians are fascinated by Schapelle Corby.

  8. It looks like Murdoch’s paywall is about 10cm high these days. A sample of articles that I checked are easily accessible over the paywall. Perhaps he is feeling the pressure from the increasing number of alternative news sources, leading to this plaintive plea in the Oz (also accessible over the paywall):

    Here’s the news: nothing is free
    MARK RITSON
    Of all the silly things done to imperil newspapers, none has proved worse than offering free news online.

  9. The leaked health policy ideas all come down to one thing – commonwealth funding of hospitals to be reduced from 40 to 35 percent. Obviously aimed at forcing State governments to impose user charges. What’s being proposed is the end of free public hospitals.

  10. Citizen – yup, hoover up money from the dopes who will pay for it and let the rest climb over the paywall and take whatever they want (to improve clicks). You’ve got to laugh.

  11. To try a get a grip on what’s happening in America, and in response to yesterday’s brief foray into whether the voters should suffer at their own hands for Trumpism, I’ve started reading Hillbilly Elegy.

    “This is the real story of my life, and that is why I wrote it. I want people to know what it feels like to nearly give up on yourself and why you might do it. I want people to understand what happens in the loves of the poor and the psychological impact that spiritual and material poverty has on their children. I want people to understand the American Dream as my family and I encountered it. And I want people to understand something I learned only recently: that for those of us lucky enough to live the American Dream, the demons of the life we left behind continue to chase us.”

    Rivetting, painful reading. Julius Sumner Miller stuff – Why Is It So.

  12. Malcolm is in trouble with the IPA. This can only end badly for him.

    A Liberal-leaning think tank has written to all MPs urging them to oppose the Turnbull government’s bank levy, saying it amounts to “quasi nationalisation” of the major banks and will impede economic growth.

    The Institute of Public Affairs, often considered a breeding ground for conservative MPs, says the levy will discourage investment in Australia and its costs will inevitably be borne by investors and customers of the big banks.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bank-levy-amounts-to-quasi-nationalisation-of-the-major-banks-think-tank-20170528-gwess5.html

  13. andrewtillett: Extra 30 troops for Afghanistan @MarisePayne has just told Estimates after requests from NATO, US #auspol

  14. Ruling out a royalties holiday was a good decision and refusing to administer any potential NAIF money for Adani are good and principled decisions. No doubt the Liberals will try to spin this negatively, so best of luck in the PR battle.

    If royalties payments are delayed, do not make it too big of a delay. The mine and company will not survive much longer, make sure they’ve paid back in full before they collapse.

  15. Not all the media shares the fascination with Corby. On a commercial radio new broadcast this morning the reader, talking about the NSW League team, said they were moving into a circus as the were going to stay at the Sofitel “where it was surrounded by more reporters than people interested in the story.”

  16. Turnbull

    “a constitutionally conservative nation must be persuaded that the proposed amendments respect the fundamental values of the constitution”

    Someone else alluded to this yesterday: the Constitution was written at a time when Aborigines were not counted as citizens, and their history and culture ignored. Therefore Turnbull’s statement is effectively a denial of fairness and a support for racism. Perhaps he didn’t realise exactly what he was saying???

  17. “Adrian,
    Anything on AM wrt Newspoll?”

    I doubt it, but I decided to have a stress free morning commute by listening to Roy and HG’s Sporting Probe podcast.

    One of the topics was sports minister Hunt, whose name they pronounced in a way impossible to duplicate in writing, and called the intellectual powerhouse of the government.
    The Adani mine also got a well deserved serve.

  18. No because that would imply that anyone not in favour of abolishing the constitution altogether was racist. There’s a lot to support in the Australian constitution, racist attitudes of the times notwithstanding

  19. Adrian,
    Thanks for the update. Sounds like Roy and HG are doing a version of ‘Greg the Lying Hunt’. 😉

  20. Good work Barnaby. I think the Beaconsfield mine disaster was a watershed moment in the public awareness of Shorten’s essential humanity. Anything and anyone who raises it to contrast with their own self-serving interests does so at their own peril.

    From the Guardian:
    Poor choice of words this morning from Barnaby Joyce. He accusing Bill Shorten of deserting the working man over the Adani project, having stood beside them at the Beaconsfield mine disaster.

    Quote the hayseed:
    “I remember Mr Shorten, didn’t he stand outside a gold mine down in Tasmania, telling us all about how he, you know, he put on the hi-vis shirt and the bomber jacket, told us all how he was with the working man. Well he is not with them now. He has left them for dead”.

    Todd Russell, 34, and Brant Webb, 37, were trapped in a safety cage in the mine in the Beaconsfield after a 2.1 magnitude earthquake caused a collapse of underground rocks and killed their colleague, 44-year-old Larry Knight on April 25, 2006.

  21. lizzie @ #80 Monday, May 29, 2017 at 9:36 am

    Turnbull

    “a constitutionally conservative nation must be persuaded that the proposed amendments respect the fundamental values of the constitution”

    Someone else alluded to this yesterday: the Constitution was written at a time when Aborigines were not counted as citizens, and their history and culture ignored. Therefore Turnbull’s statement is effectively a denial of fairness and a support for racism. Perhaps he didn’t realise exactly what he was saying???

    Yes, so true Lizzie,

    I’ve made a similar point on Marriage Equality.

    When then the Marriage Act was written, many homosexual acts were illegal, so the writers would not have even considered it as an option, now this is no longer the case.

  22. It is not surprising that the polls haven’t moved in favour of the coalition.
    What did they do in the last budget that would materially improve things for the general populace?

  23. Tomorrow is Memorial Day in the USA. I am expecting after this day to be honoured, that the Trump imbroglio gets into another gear. How much longer are they going to allow this traitor and his cronies to wreck the joint?
    Seriously, until this mob is removed from the Whitehouse, Australia should hold off making any commitments with them. They cannot be trusted

  24. The full Uluru statement as posted on the Guardian blog.

    ULURU STATEMENT FROM THE HEART

    We, gathered at the 2017 National Constitutional Convention, coming from all points of the southern sky, make this statement from the heart: Our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander tribes were the first sovereign Nations of the Australian continent and its adjacent islands, and possessed it under our own laws and customs.

    This our ancestors did, according to the reckoning of our culture, from the Creation, according to the common law from ‘time immemorial’, and according to science more than 60,000 years ago.

    This sovereignty is a spiritual notion: the ancestral tie between the land, or ‘mother nature’, and the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who were born therefrom, remain attached thereto, and must one day return thither to be united with our ancestors.

    This link is the basis of the ownership of the soil, or better, of sovereignty. It has never been ceded or extinguished, and coexists with the sovereignty of the Crown. How could it be otherwise? That peoples possessed a land for sixty millennia and this sacred link disappears from world history in merely the last two hundred years?

    With substantive constitutional change and structural reform, we believe this ancient sovereignty can shine through as a fuller expression of Australia’s nationhood. Proportionally, we are the most incarcerated people on the planet. We are not an innately criminal people. Our children are aliened from their families at unprecedented rates. This cannot be because we have no love for them. And our youth languish in detention in obscene numbers. They should be our hope for the future. These dimensions of our crisis tell plainly the structural nature of our problem.

    This is the torment of our powerlessness. We seek constitutional reforms to empower our people and take a rightful place in our own country. When we have power over our destiny our children will flourish. They will walk in two worlds and their culture will be a gift to their country.

    We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution. Makarrata is the culmination of our agenda: the coming together after a struggle. It captures our aspirations for a fair and truthful relationship with the people of Australia and a better future for our children based on justice and self-determination.

    We seek a Makarrata Commission to supervise a process of agreement-making between governments and First Nations and truth-telling about our history. In 1967 we were counted, in 2017 we seek to be heard. We leave base camp and start our trek across this vast country. We invite you to walk with us in a movement of the Australian people for a better future.

  25. C@Tmomma, if you are a Roy and HG fan, you’ll be pleased to know that they are still as sharp as ever.

    Can’t understand why they don’t have their own TV show any more.

    Well, perhaps I can.

  26. “…and Bill Shorten will cravenly fall in line with the warmongers to avoid a debate on defence.”

    Which is pretty smart, all things considered.

  27. Turnbull stands for entrenched power, wealth and privilege. No wonder he is wary about any change to the Constitution that might disturb that in any real (as distinct from merely symbolic) way.
    His true allegiances become more evident with every real challenge he faces.

  28. Naff off, Rex Douglas! I’d say something worse to you but I am minding my words.
    Does the Liberal Party really think this tactic of besmirching the leader of the Labor Party on social media is going to work for them!?!

    Or are you one of those idiotic Lunar Left supporters whose ‘logical’, and I use that word advisedly, position on troops in Afghanistan sees them supporting the resurgence of the Taliban and all that implies? Yes, there are Australian troops over there but they are maintaining an uneasy and fragile truce that is enabling a fairer society for all. Which is what I thought the Left at it’s outer margins were all about? Apparently not, if unthinking dipsticks like you are any indication of their collective consciousness.

    Not one word from you either about the 13th Newspoll in a row showing the Labor Party, led by Bill Shorten, maintaining their supremacy over the Coalition.

    If you truly are from the Left, and not a RW troll, then you are simply a viper in that nest providing absolutely no support or solidarity at all for that which you profess to stand for.

  29. His true allegiances become more evident with every real challenge he faces.

    And for Turnbull to use as his excuse to do nothing about an Indigenous Treaty and Voice that ‘Australia is innately a conservative country’ is just absolute garbage. We are one of the most progressive countries on the planet. Or were, until Howard got his grubby mitts on it, followed by Abbott. And now, Turnbull.

  30. Adrian,
    HG lives in the suburb next to mine!
    Actually, Roy and HG should replace Clarke and Dawe, don’t you think? 🙂

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