Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Most post-budget opinion poll stasis, this time from Essential Research.

No change on voting intention from Essential Research this week, at all – Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 6%. Nonetheless, there is a net positive response for the budget, which records 41% approval and 33% disapproval, and for each of eight individual measures, ranging from 82-7 in favour of a levy on vacant properties owned by foreign investors to 49-39 for the Medicare levy increase. However, 56% felt the increase should be higher for high income earners, as per Labor policy, with 27% favouring a flat increase (though no allowance was made for those who didn’t think it should happen at all). For all the “Labor lite” talk, the Liberal Party’s reputation dies hard, with the budget rated best for “people who are well off” and “Australian business”, and worst for “you personally” and, suggesting at least some insight as to what the budget specifically contained, university students. On the question of preferred Treasurer, Scott Morrison (26%) and Chris Bowen (22%) ran a distant third behind “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 … 26

  1. The radio news this morning said the White House was in lockdown due to a suspected intruder at the perimeter fence. Perhaps it was actually the other way round – Trump or one of his fellow suspects trying to escape the rapidly closing net of justice.

  3. The Medicare rebate thaw will not apply to 93 per cent of scans, including the X-rays, MRIs and ultrasounds used to diagnose some of the most common forms of cancer. So much for THAT big announcement!

    Isn’t that just SO typical of the modus operandi of the Turnbull government?

    Announce BIG! Go small in the fine print.

  4. I’m musing as to whether the Mitchell study Gittins cites is defining failure through ATAR scores.

    It cites ABS figures as its source, but as I have shown, there’s a 10% difference in the ABS figures and theirs.

    ATAR scores are not meant to be used to decide if a student has passed or failed, but as a guide for Universities. Off hand, I can think of at least three examples of students who technically ‘failed’ VCE based on ATAR scores who have gone on to University. One is currently studying Medicine and the other two Engineering.

    So if you looked at ATAR scores and concluded that only a certain percentage passed and that therefore only a certain percentage had access to further education, you would be majorly wrong.

    Universities – and sensible people everywhere – accept that VCE scores are not the summation of an individual and their abilities. They thus provide students with other pathways into courses.

    So the Mitchell Institute may be conflating ‘successful completion of VCE” with ‘ability to enter University” which are two different things.

    Certainly both it and Gittins paint a far blacker picture of our education system (at least in the majority of schools and states) than it deserves.

  5. Zoomster, I wonder how many of those “non graduating” students are students that did not graduate through secondary ed, but did graduate through VET/TAFE colleges?

    Tom.

  6. C@tmomma @ #53 Wednesday, May 17th, 2017 – 8:41 am

    The Medicare rebate thaw will not apply to 93 per cent of scans, including the X-rays, MRIs and ultrasounds used to diagnose some of the most common forms of cancer. So much for THAT big announcement!

    Isn’t that just SO typical of the modus operandi of the Turnbull government?

    Announce BIG! Go small in the fine print.

    Momma,

    Which is why any favourable assessment of the Budget will dissipate as the detail is revealed and those affected voice their concerns.

  7. Meanwhile, Claude Taylor on Twitter, had this to say about Seth Rich

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated

    Remember the death of Seth Rich, the DNC staffer killed in D.C? Intel source says he was killed by Russian Intel for still unknown reasons.

  12. Vic,
    He(Trump) seriously thought he could continue behaving as mobster. Do whatever and no questions asked.

    It’s why I refer to him as ‘The Don’ sometimes.

  13. Trump thought he could do away with a branch of govt. ie the judiciary.

    This should’ve been the first warning sign to Republicans, but no. They either didn’t care or approved wholeheartedly.

  14. Zoomster………you have put your finger on the problem of the ‘golden mean’ – viz…batsman over 4 innings makes 100,0,100,0 for an average of 50. This 50 is a near useless indicator of much other than the said player’s inconsistency. Same applies when averages are used for school retention rates, life expectancy and other aggregated data. From Stat Method I seem to remember the comment that the ‘average’ was actually the least likely number of use in a series of statistical measures.

  16. Meanwhile Senator Lindsey Graham who initially with Senator John McCain gave some semblance of checks and balances on Trump, is turning out to be quite the opposite. Sigh.

    Seriously the GOP should be utterly ashamed of itself

  19. Thanks BK
    Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, aiding and abetting the destruction of bedrock American institutions, so their parasite paymasters can get a tax cut, irrespective of the deaths of more Americans through loss of health care than Osama bin Laden could have hoped for in his terrorist dreams.

  20. Trog

    From what I have gathered, Ryan and McConnell are also compromised in this imbroglio. It relates to campaign funds knowingly received from dubious sources.

    In any event, I suspect a few more strategic leaks on Trump, will indicate the next step in this affair

  21. Murdoch hacks have obviously been told to throw mud at Labor over NDIS problems (Oz headlines):

    States hold NDIS to ransom
    RICK MORTON
    Malcolm Turnbull is on a collision course with four state Labor governments over funding of the NDIS.

    Labor guilty of NDIS hypocrisy
    PAUL KELLY
    If the scheme is ‘fully funded’, why burden the highest taxpayers with an extra levy?

  24. Labor guilty of NDIS hypocrisy
    PAUL KELLY
    If the scheme is ‘fully funded’, why burden the highest taxpayers with an extra levy?

    Actually, and maybe purposefully, Paul Kelly has got it arse-about. It is actually the government who are seeking to impose the extra levy on high income earners, as well as everyone else, to pay for the NDIS, but Labor simply want to take it away from the lowest-waged taxpayers. What’s not to like about that idea?

  25. Also, don’t forget, as pointed out yesterday on PB, the extra Medicare Levy $ are still going into Consolidated Revenue, not a specific ‘NDIS Fund’.

  27. adrian @ #73 Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 9:05 am

    I want to know if the new subs, or indeed any new defence spending is ‘fully funded’ FFS!

    Or better still, what particular tax is hypothecated to the defence budget.
    After all it is the government that introduced the concept of hypothecation with the Medicare levy increase for the NDIS.

  28. He was the senator whose vote was pivotal to the Coalition’s crusade to stamp out lawlessness in the building sector through the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

    But now Bob Day will be investigated by the workplace umpire amid claims he engaged in sham contracting before his home building empire went bust last year.

    Employment Minister Michaelia Cash referred allegations to the Fair Work Ombudsman after her department raised a question mark over the former Family First senator’s insistence that his workforce were paid as contractors.

    Mr Day, who was a loud voice for liberalising workplace rules and reducing union influence on construction sites, was paying all sales staff at his Homes Australia group as independent contractors on commission-only pay.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-day-accused-of-sham-contracting-before-building-business-went-belly-up-20170516-gw5zhc.html?utm_source=TractionNext&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Worm-Subscribe-170517

  32. BBC News
    Just now ·
    “I used to worry that the president wasn’t reading the president’s daily brief. Now I’m worried that he is.” says Former US Defence Secretary William Cohen.

    Will officials have to keep things from Trump in order to uphold national security and international relations?

  33. Lizzie

    And some of those who gave evidence at the Royal Commission against the union etc. have also failed to pay their workers properly and have gone into receivership. What a bunch of spivs and crooks. Makes my blood boil

  35. [ At the same time those earning $180000 plus will get a tax reduction those earning $21000 plus will get a tax rise. ]

    That is i think, the fundamental “bad look” to come out of this Budget and a gimme the Coalition have handed the ALP.

    Tied in with $65 billion in business tax cuts…….. and the Coalition are going to have real problems “selling” this budget.

  38. 6s
    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
    Trump’s disclosure endangered spy placed inside ISIS by Israel, officials say – ABC News – (link: http://abcn.ws/2pI4bX0) abcn.ws/2pI4bX0 via @ABC
    Trump’s disclosure endangered spy placed inside ISIS by Israel, officials say
    abcnews.go.com

  39. Latest from Claude Taylor

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Replying to @TrueFactsStated
    4. I don’t know. Will they be out soon? It’s hard for me to come to any other conclusion. We’ll known soon. Hang in there.

    173

    588

    25m
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Replying to @TrueFactsStated
    3. dockets have been reduced to zero. All of this inexplicable changes have happened in the last 36 hours. Are Marshals out as we speak?

    388

    1,030

    28m
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Replying to @TrueFactsStated
    cases per day. Right now the weekly docket at the EDVA has been stripped down to a handful of cases. Further, many of the Senior Justice’s

    295

    688

    34m
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    1. Folks are asking for an update. Here’s what I know. The EDVA has one of the heaviest dockets in the United States with an average of 11

  40. Victoria

    Surely the way to handle Trump’s ‘leak’ was to keep it quiet and allow time to extricate or cover the tracks of your ‘asset’ rather than shout it to the world and alert ISIS ? The shouting out loud would cause most of the ‘asset’ risk as the russians along with the Americans would be top of the target list for ISIS and such bomb attacks. They have every incentive in the world not to endanger the ISIS spy .

  41. Culleton wants to take his fight against the government to the Privy Council. I thought appeals to the Privy Council were abolished some years ago.

    Rod Culleton, the West Australian ruled ineligible to have been elected a senator by the High Court, isn’t giving up his fight against the commonwealth.

    Mr Culleton is compiling a submission to present to the UK Privy Council after the Department of Finance said it would pursue him for payments made to him and his staff before he was disqualified.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/disqualified-senator-takes-fight-to-london/news-story/b5af8bdd7f76360e05e306ca823024a4

  42. Yes, Barney. No doubt the BBC and the ABC are playing the same game for their respective political masters, although ultimately they (and the MSM generally) share the same Cayman-related masters.

  44. “Trump’s disclosure endangered spy placed inside ISIS by Israel, officials say
    abcnews.go.com”
    Crap. The Israelis and the Saudis helped create ISIS.

  45. AR
    I have done some testing with Chrome (with Windows 10) and the result is that having CCCP and C+ both enabled causes various problems and therefore one or the other should be removed.

    I will now spend quite some time reloading my Internet computer to remove a couple of problems and get set up for Friday’s NBN installlation.
    :really cheerful and hopeful emoji:
    and
    Advice to self – do not drop blobs of icecream into your keyboard.
    ☮ ✌

  46. Good Morning

    Regarding Trump the question is will impeachment happen with the GOP in control of Congress or will it happen after the 2018 elections with a landslide win to the Democrats as patriots vote for Democracy and for country over party?

    Thats the question facing the Republicans now. Thats their political outlook. Vote for party and try and tough it out with no independent investigation. No impeachment will mean a landslide election win for the Democrats

  47. c@tmomma @ #27 Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 7:55 am

    —
    I mean, honestly, are you so hardbitten and humourless that you would like it if Bemused didn’t discuss the lovely interactions he has with his granddaughters,—

    Really C@t…is it that obvious?
    I didn’t think I said all that much about them except mentioning comings and goings when I went to see them and returned.
    But yes, I absolutely adore them, particularly the youngest who turned 3 a couple of months ago. She has a huge personality which apparently dominates her peers and even older kids at a childcare centre she attends.
    She was swimming without any flotation aids before she turned 3 and will have a go at anything. Just learnt how to operate a swing without any assistance.
    Current plan is to take them swimming at a local heated pool so they keep up their skills over winter.
    I am sure they are adding years to my life!
    Anyway, thanks C@t, glad you enjoy what I write about them. {huge grin}

  50. strom_m: At Senate hearing @SenatorLudlam asks how taxed distributors (Google Facebook) $ could be distributed. Independent of govt says @withMEAA

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *