ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,058 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Howard believed that Rudd would have won the next election easily if Labor had stuck with him. This is one of the few things on which I agree with Howard. The mining companies anti-mining tax smear campaign would have run out of steam eventually.

    I like Albo, he’s my local member, but I’d much rather have him as part of a talented front bench than in a figurehead position as leader o the party / pm. Firstly because I think he will be better able to put his talents to use and secondly because I don’t know if he has the terth for it.

  2. Howard believed that Rudd would have won the next election easily if Labor had stuck with him.

    Yep, they should’ve let Rudd win the election and then dumped him. Labor would’ve had a firm majority in the HoR and there’d have been no purchase for Rudd’s whiteanting of Gillard’s govt.

    But alas this is all water under the bridge, and matters nowt to where we are now.

  3. Ratsak

    without acknowledging the counter balancing expansion of social support through medicare etc. and tax reforms such as CGT.

    The unfortunate difference is that when Germany hit the economic skids in the late 1990s made an “Accord” like agreement where in exchange for job security the workers would forego wage increases. Sadly Strayan business, unlike the ‘Chermans’, aided and abetted by #$%#$$#%$!!!! Howard, honoured the wage restraint but went FU on job security.

  4. Howard believed that Rudd would have won the next election easily if Labor had stuck with him.
    Well Howard would say this wouldn’t he?
    The mining companies anti-mining tax smear campaign would have run out of steam eventually.
    Any evidence for this? I think they were only beginning to roll up their sleeves

  5. oakeshott country @ #898 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    I should add that this surprise was done without consultation with the states on how the tax would effect royalties.

    I am a bit vague now on all the details now but that is one I remember.
    There certainly seem to have been some flaws in the proposal. Whether or not they could have been sorted out or not is something we will never know.
    But it pisses me off no end how the mining companies pay so little in Australia compared to elsewhere. I include gas in that of course.

  6. And I should state that, as someone mentioned earlier, if there is no indictment, sealed or otherwise, Mensch has blown her credibility.

  7. Guys, it is Sunday morning in the US. Any indictment would be delivered Monday morning at the earliest. I don’t know what the time-frame for these things are – I’d suggest nobody here does.

    How about we wait a little before making assertions as to Mensch and Co’s bona fides? So far, they’ve been on the money. Just as that Steele dossier keeps being verified bit by bit. It took 7 months for Watergate to play out. It may well take the same or longer (that is if Trump and his family don’t scarper to Moscow and seek asylum).

  8. When it all gets too much for Trump, he may head to Africa and forget all his troubles:

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

  9. Mensch seems to like the sound of her own tweets almost as much as Trump does. I’ll believe it when it happens.

  10. ‘fess

    if there is no indictment, sealed or otherwise, Mensch has blown her credibility.

    No one will know until Trump ceases to be president.

  11. OC – I believe that if Rudd had stuck to his guns the electorate would have respected his position and supported him against the mining coys. It’s too bad Labor went to water.

  12. CTar:

    So anyone can claim there’s a sealed indictment against Trump and no need to provide proof? That doesn’t sound right to me.

  13. Well done to Port Adelaide and Gold Coast for the AFL match in Shanghai. Good to see premier Weatherill holding up the SA flag. Also quite a big SA trade, education, tourism etc promotion happening at the same time.

  14. wakefield @ #920 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 6:23 pm

    Well done to Port Adelaide and Gold Coast for the AFL match in Shanghai. Good to see premier Weatherill holding up the SA flag. Also quite a big SA trade, education, tourism etc promotion happening at the same time.

    Pity it was a shit game! We turned it off in the second quarter.

  15. ‘fess – It’s a who knows.

    If the indictment exists then some one has put enough evidence to a judge for a prosecution to be considered viable.

    But, as I understand it, he is immune for most purposes while he remains president.

  16. Dingbat, this blog needs much, much more commenters like Jackol, and much, much fewer like you. I’m embarrassed to have you posting here, and I really wish you would cease doing so.

  17. I have a few doubts about the Trump indictment. When it was publicised this morning that Comey, allegedly, wants to be allowed to testify publically. Surely if there is any thing powerful in his testimony, it would need to be discussed in camera at the first instance?

    Tom.

  18. @Bemused

    Do you really believe that about Gillard? I think she did well considering the hung parliament. Particularly a fan of her royal commission into child sex abuse. What makes her ‘rotten’ in your opinion.

  19. Hmmm on what basis was that? Solidarity among scabs against their fellow Fairfax journalists?

    Working for the AFR is just fluffing for the 1% and telling em what they want to hear. Doubly so under the Murdoch-lite hand of Stutch. Hardly likely to accept those terms and then get all bolshy.

    Once you buy in you even start believing the crap you spout. And anyway there’ll be opportunities with the big end of town or the Libs if you cop it sweet.

  20. CTar:

    I’ve no reason to doubt you, just that this whole business is incredibly frustrating. Trump is so far from a suitable, viable, competent POTUS it isn’t funny, and it really annoys me that even with all the evidence so far in existence of this fact, there isn’t an easy, swift way to remove him from office, thereby limiting the damage he can bring about.

    People whinge about how sitting Oz PMs can be ‘knifed’ overnight, but when it comes to removing unsuitable PMs from office, thus preventing them from wreaking yet more damage, that is far preferable to the US version which seems to take months and years.

  21. Oh God, don’t start him Blanket. He doesn’t need any encouragement. If you want to know what he thinks of Gillard look up pretty much any thread in the last 7 years.

    The only point of getting Bemused to start up his Gillard gallop is to shut down some other even more boring topic of pointless argument – usually when Guytaur gets up a head of steam 😉

  22. bemused dislikes Julia Gillard because she turfed his idol, the useless Rudd, and the dastardly deed being done by a woman, to boot. And JG wasn’t a devoted handmaiden, like Mesma who is always loyal even in the face of gross incompetence.

  23. People whinge about how sitting Oz PMs can be ‘knifed’ overnight, but when it comes to removing unsuitable PMs from office, thus preventing them from wreaking yet more damage, that is far preferable to the US version which seems to take months and years.

    We had two years of Abbott and are still yet to rid ourselves of Brian. I don’t know you can say the Yanks are in a significantly worse position than us.

  24. Ratsak

    And anyway there’ll be opportunities with the big end of town or the Libs if you cop it sweet.

    I think what’s been ‘exercising’ the MSN journo’s minds for about 5 years is the dawning understanding that just flopping into another job because they’ll ‘be looked after’ is not so likely as it used to be.

  25. blanket criticism @ #927 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 6:46 pm

    @Bemused
    Do you really believe that about Gillard? I think she did well considering the hung parliament. Particularly a fan of her royal commission into child sex abuse. What makes her ‘rotten’ in your opinion.

    I am sick of the continuing gratuitous attacks on her predecessor by some here.
    She was a poor political leader who took a succession of dumb actions. A few:
    Cash for clunkers
    Citizens Assembly
    Appalling ‘we are us’ policy speech
    No carbon tax followed by ‘yes it is a carbon tax’
    And so on
    Much of what was implemented while she was PM arose out of work initiated by the Rudd Govt. e.g. NDIS resulted from a Productivity Commission report initiated by Rudd.
    She seems to have had some administrative skills, but was sorely lacking in political skills and could never win the support of the electorate.
    Ultimately her colleagues recognised their earlier mistake.

  26. BC – Frankly, Rudd’s biggest mistake on the mining tax was twofold:
    1. He didn’t have an easy-to-understand explanation ready to go, as Keating would have.
    2. He didn’t have a PR counteroffensive ready to go – running ALP ads slamming mining cos as “un-Australian” and similar. He assumed they’d play nice….somehow.

  27. I think what’s been ‘exercising’ the MSN journo’s minds for about 5 years is the dawning understanding that just flopping into another job because they’ll ‘be looked after’ is not so likely as it used to be.

    Not in the media, but corporate PR and Political Media positions are always there for the ‘right kind of people’.

  28. We had two years of Abbott and are still yet to rid ourselves of Brian. I don’t know you can say the Yanks are in a significantly worse position than us.

    I don’t know who this Brian is, but the mechanics of our system means political leaders and by extension PMs can much more easily be replaced than their US equivalents. Yes Abbott is still in parliament, but outside of being a media curiosity, his power on the machinery of govt is effectively nil.

  29. puff, the magic dragon. @ #933 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    bemused dislikes Julia Gillard because she turfed his idol, the useless Rudd, and the dastardly deed being done by a woman, to boot. And JG wasn’t a devoted handmaiden, like Mesma who is always loyal even in the face of gross incompetence.

    Noting whatsoever to do with gender.

  30. Well, Mr Bowe, if you think Dingbat should go, then you must think I should go too, even though I apologised, because I started it.

  31. Matt:
    The biggest problem was that the Labor Party (including Rudd) didn’t hold its nerve. I just don’t believe the electorate would have tossed out Labor to satisfy the mining industry.

  32. If Gillard was that incompetent and someone else got the numbers and kicked her out of the PM’s office, I wouldn’t whinge about it like a cry baby forever and a day. That’s politics. White-anting that harms an ALP gov’t? Unforgivable.

  33. matt @ #938 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 6:59 pm

    BC – Frankly, Rudd’s biggest mistake on the mining tax was twofold:
    1. He didn’t have an easy-to-understand explanation ready to go, as Keating would have.
    2. He didn’t have a PR counteroffensive ready to go – running ALP ads slamming mining cos as “un-Australian” and similar. He assumed they’d play nice….somehow.

    Makes sense to me.

  34. Your logic is full of holes, C@tmomma. But if you or anybody else felt they were making a stand for what’s good and proper by walking out in solidarity with Dingbat, I would not be sorry to see any of you go.

  35. puff, the magic dragon. @ #944 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 7:05 pm

    If Gillard was that incompetent and someone else got the numbers and kicked her out of the PM’s office, I wouldn’t whinge about it like a cry baby forever and a day. That’s politics. White-anting that harms an ALP gov’t? Unforgivable.

    Yes indeed, a disloyal deputy white-anting the leader is unforgiveable.

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