If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.
Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.
Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.
The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.
The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.
On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.
greensborough growler @ #190 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 1:41 pm
I’m glad to hear this. Its saving first home buyers from themselves, and the rest of us from ourselves. The last thing the housing market needs is more demand.
BK, small samples but the newspoll state breakdown shows Coalition primary in SA down 4 and ALP down 1.5
If she keeps working hard she may keep her seat for a while longer yet.
trog sorrenson @ #119 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:38 am
Do Hot Cross Buns meet halal specification? 🙂
**North Korea lashes out at US Navy strike group move**
I am just so grateful that Trump won the US election instead of that dangerous hawk Clinton.
Barney,
The crosses must be a form of exorcism.
Cheers.
Barney in Go Dau @ #203 Tuesday, April 11th, 2017 – 2:09 pm
Hm…emoticons truncate posts?
Which is to say, as long as they’re not pork flavored they probably meet the requirements.
No need for Mal to”backstab” Scrott. Scrott just doing his day job is doing a bang up job of wrecking his PM dream
Barney, South Australians can feel relieved that Haighs chocolates are not halal certified but offended that Hanson did not mention it.
Ides
Not so much “private sales” in WA. Real estate agents are used to do the marketing and help get the deal done.
There have been a few people marketing kits and stuff to people who don’t want to pay an agent commission.
There was a house near me that was for sale like that but he was asking the same as if he was using an agent. If I had been a buyer I would have said “not paying that” and offered what he would have got in hand after an agent did the business.
He eventually gave up after a few months, listed with an active local agent and the property sold with a few weeks.
Barney in Go Dau
Most definitely not, they carry the mark of the crusader. They are perfectly safe for Hanson voters.
A few years ago I called Barnyard a piss-head on this very blog and was just told he had a florid Queensland complexion. Now, it seems to be conventional wisdom.
I hope this is indicative of the press gallery view by Mr Keane
https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/04/11/scott-morrison-tries-to-float-housing-affordability-changes-for-may-9-budget/
Paywall
simon dagg katich @ #209 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 2:18 pm
With her level of support there I doubt she knows SA exists. 🙂
Maddies in the branches elect maddies to Parliament who have a weak as piss leader who can’t discipline any of them. Sounds like a recipe for chaos to me.
Some (slightly) good news.
*Sounds like a recipe for chaos to me.*
Anton, the cake is already baked and it seems only the MSM are happy to eat it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QRVbEQogDk
https://www.cadbury.com.au/Products/Halal-Products.aspx
SRK – Hah, hah.
And this is how it’s all going to end up for the libs (the big shoot-out after everyone converges while the “zorba” theme plays – truly one of the most inspired sequences in movie history, methinks)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLgSp9b_U3A
FTTC? Is that like fibre to the premises? Too many acronyms to keep track of
Peter Lewis on the latest Essential report:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/11/voters-arent-buying-the-coalitions-business-as-usual-approach-and-anger-is-radioactive
Some data from the latest ABS census has been released.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/11/census-says-typical-australian-is-38-year-old-married-woman-with-two-children
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-11/women-doing-lions-share-of-housework-2016-census-release/8434340
Derryn Hinch thinks buying a home is not a right. True. Neither is being re-elected.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-11/derryn-hinch-tells-millennials-home-ownership-is-not-their-right/8433498
Has the pro-negative gearing lobby got at Hinch? Some of his statements are nonsense. Home ownership in Australia is now well below average by world standards, and almost bottom of the class for those foolish to be born after, say 1970. 20 years ago it was among the highest. Comparing to New York is irrelevant. Is he setting up to back the government on one of their nuttier “solutions” to the housing crisis?
At this point everyone from the governor of the RBA to the most economically-illiterate member of Cabinet knows negative gearing has to be tackled. But Malcolm hides from it. Is Derryn about to give him cover?
Pegasus
“census-says-typical-australian-is-38-year-old-married-woman-with-two-children”
I feel so marginalised.
Bemused
What “agile” means is “We realise that we have fucked up big time, so we are going back to a full fibre network and hope the punters don’t notice the money we have wasted, the damage to the economy, the damage to the property values of the poor FTTN recipients, and the rank hypocrisy of the whole situation inflicted by Turnbull and Abbott.”
Hot Crescent Buns might!
What I can’t stand are things like chocolate hot cross buns.
@ Bonza – FTTC sits in between FTTN and FTTP/B
With FTTC, the fibre goes to where your driveway meets the road, then relies on copper to make it those last few metres.
Advantage over FTTN is mostly that people should get closer to the advertised speeds, it won’t be slowed by you being too far from the node, or the copper connecting your street to the node being ‘clogged’. As the copper only goes to your own house, it can only become clogged by your own use.
Bonza
FTTC – fibre to the curb.
(They use the American spelling of curb rather than kerb, which is further evidence of the disrespect shown by NBNCo to Australian broadband consumers.)
VE – Is the other point that, ultimately, the only way the disaster of MTM (including the epic waste of money) will be fixed is by home owners paying for a fibre connection. I assume that FTTC will make that easier. Is that right?
Trog – it’s their way of saying that they’ll be back in the US with all our money when the shit hits the fan.
@ AB – yes, I imagine that when NBN rollout has finished, they’ll be spruiking ‘subsidised’ ways to upgrade your FTTC to FTTP.
I assumed it meant Fibre To The Cabinet (some sort of sick joke on Node) because nobody I know use the spelling curb. But then again;
— curb; noun – a check or restraint on something —
Just watched Q&A and a couple of observations I was left with.
Anne Somerville: I’d hate to learn ethics from her.
Mitch Fifield: Couldn’t even get John Clarke’s name correct, called him John Dawe. Appalling.
CNN’s April Ryan: Press Secretary Sean Spicer might be on his way out the door with Bannon and Priebus
CNN’s April Ryan on Tuesday suggested White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, along with Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and chief White House counselor Steve Bannon, could be out of the White House as the result of Donald Trump’s seemingly never-ending series of staff shakeups.
Ryan suggested the White House is “another TV show” for the president.
Asked by host Don Lemon if Trump is seriously considering getting rid of Bannon, Priebus and Spicer, Ryan replied: “Yes, most definitely.”
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/cnns-april-ryan-press-secretary-sean-spicer-might-be-on-his-way-out-the-door-with-bannon-and-priebus/
I buy only Australian Made & Australian Owned company’s Easter Eggs. I have been buying the boys a Darrell Lea Nougat Egg since they could eat solids. 🙂
However, we never purchase our Easter Eggs until the Thursday before Easter and only eat them on Easter Sunday, as you are supposed to.
We don’t eat Hot Cross Buns at all. All those carbs!
In my assessment, an individual or group within the Liberal Party is undermining Scott Morrison in a particularly viscious manner. He has sustained numerous attacks in recent times.
I am almost positive this is coming from the Turnbull camp, as it has all the hallmarks of his trademark vindictiveness.
The answers to two questions would be interesting – why is Turnbull doing this to Morrison, and how will Morrison respond?
We have seen a gradual weakening of Morrison these past few years so the answer to the second question will probably be ‘with not much’.
Phoenix Red,
I certainly wouldn’t want to sack Bannon. He is the sort of guy who wouldn’t take it lying down. I always think of the old saying, ‘Keep your friends close and your enemies closer’. Steve Bannon is not the sort of guy you would want to make an enemy of!
Desert Qlder,
I think everyone is out to get Scott Morrison. Don’t forget that the Abbottistas were dirty on him because they thought he betrayed them in switching camps to Turnbull. All so he could become Treasurer.
simon dagg katich @ #233 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 3:43 pm
Maybe they’ll have an attack of honesty and change it to;
FTSKOIYGVSD
Fibre To Somewhere Kind Of In Your General Vicinity Some Day
Not very catchy but honest. 🙂
I had the opportunity to scan a dead tree DT today. It seems that anyone who disagrees with the RWNJ viewpoint is now a Marxist. Surely the younger generations would hardly know what a Marxist is supposed to be – probably Murdoch telling the oldies what he thinks at least some of them want to hear.
I agree with C@t – it can’t (just) be Turnbull out for ScoMo’s head. If ScoMo had any support on the right wing of the party, Ray Hadley would have forgiven him for appearing on ABC radio.
Libertarian Unionist
#151 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 12:27 pm
Ok, so how does blockquoting work now?
I don’t really understand what you want to know.
the standard “blockquote” and “/blockquote” enclosed in little “left arrow” and little “right arrow” (UC comma and period on standard keyboard) work ok.
Is there some other underlying question?
Easter eggs should be painted chook eggs.
Barney in Go Dau @ #203 Tuesday, April 11th, 2017 – 2:09 pm
Test(es).
Cool, quotmoticons fixed.
C@tmomma Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 3:50 pm
Phoenix Red,
I certainly wouldn’t want to sack Bannon. He is the sort of guy who wouldn’t take it lying down. I always think of the old saying, ‘Keep your friends close and your enemies closer’. Steve Bannon is not the sort of guy you would want to make an enemy of!
************************************
Whenever I see Bannon, he always looks like a bloke who has been on a booze/drug *bender* for a few weeks and decided he needs to stumble back into the community
I loved Sean Penns recent character assessment of Bannon :
“Bannon was then, as he is now, simply another bitter Hollywood wannabe who went rogue by way of toxic narcissistic iconoclasm,” Penn recalled. “But, deep in his heart, he’s just a conniving hateful bloated punk who despises mankind.”
“And then there are also the bad things about him…” he puckishly added.
….but yes – such a person makes a truly bad enemy ….. like Trump needs any more critics/enemies …… he is f**ing himself badly, without any others help
Vale John Clarke
If the reports are true, and he died on Mt Abrupt, then all I can say is: WTF was he thinking.
Mt Abrupt isn’t a stroll, it’s a hard climb. It’s supposed to be a 3hr trek. What they don’t tell you, it’s 2hrs 40mins up, and 20 mins down, running flat out; the only stop is if you grab onto a (fleeting) tree trunk.
Whoever thought it was spiritual must have been wandering in the valley, at the base.
Disclaimer: This is based on my experience over 40 years ago. Unless walking platforms have been constructed (and why would they have been; it would destroy the experience) then I reckon my experience would still hold.
Nevertheless, we’ve all lost a giant of political commentary. And from all reports, an extremely likeable, un-up-himself, bloke.
C@tmomma
As well as the Abbott push there would be others in cabinet who realise what a dud Morrison is.
Ambition drives them all and they would see Scotty dragging the government down.
Porter is just one who has an ego big enough to have hime believe he could single-handedly turn things around.
Voters in WA who look back on his legacy as Treasurer here may disagree but that would be water off a ducks back for him.
Citizen
“I had the opportunity to scan a dead tree DT today. It seems that anyone who disagrees with the RWNJ viewpoint is now a Marxist. Surely the younger generations would hardly know what a Marxist is supposed to be – probably Murdoch telling the oldies what he thinks at least some of them want to hear.”
I know Bronnie Bishop likes to hear this. Anyone who criticises her exorbitant (and extra-orbital) expenses are obviously “socialists” envious of her success.