Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. Guytaur,

    Andrews hasn’t faced an election or by-election and is not due to for to the polls for another 18 months.
    The changes proposed by Andrews’ have not yet been implemented and don’t take affect for a couple of months.
    Also, the most recent poll put his Government behind.
    So,

  2. The interesting thing about the energy debate is how quickly the ground is shifting. It has a major impact on politics as well as jobs and economics at all levels. It’s a bit like watching the transition from horses to motor vehicles.

  4. I often wonder about how exactly home ownership as the “Great Australian Dream” came into being, considering it’s also the Great American Dream and the Great British Dream as well, to name but a few.

    What exactly is so “Australian” about home ownership? Why is it different to the American and British dreams? Is it just a myth that no-one has ever bothered to question? Or is it something more?

  6. The super system is intended to provide for the retirement incomes of working people. Savings held in the Super system are tax-preferred to enable the values held to accumulate faster.

    To the extent that private super balances do not grow fast enough or have been depleted along the way, future taxpayers will have to provide for the incomes of retirees, in effect meaning future taxpayers will be called on to meet the housing costs of current buyers. As it is, if Abbott’s proposal were accepted, these buyers will be accessing tax-preferred savings, meaning current taxpayers would also be helping to fund their housing.

    This idea will introduce yet more distortions and inequities to the housing market in ways that will support the highest earners.

    This should be opposed on first principles. The housing market really needs to be reformed.

  7. lizzie @ #100 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:07 am

    Having engaged Sherlock Holmes to find the cause of the mystery, we have discovered that a few enthusiastic barrackers cannot read others’ posts, hence the vague and unsatisfactory nature of the ‘arguments’, which never reach a conclusion.

    I think I am the only one who uses STFU, and I reserve it for a very few posters who have demonstrated over time that they come here primarily to abuse, not debate. I read all the other posters, but I don’t feel the need to comment if all they are doing is expressing a contrary opinion. However, I do tend to comment if someone posts something which is untrue or misleading – fortunately the worst offenders in this area have toned down their posting in recent days.

  11. rossmcg @ #109 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:26 am

    acting PM Joyce (boy, typing that is scary) has spelled it out.
    sounds like Adani will get the money
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/11/adani-carmichael-mine-needs-1bn-public-funding-barnaby-joyce

    If the free market is so great at picking winners then why do we need to directly give Adani billions of dollars of subsidies, and then billions more in indirect subsidies?

    Surely if it was such a winner it would stand up in its own right.

  12. The Nationals leader has given a full-throated defence of subsidising the mine, telling Radio National that Australians should support it because they are “citizens of the world” and warning those that oppose fossil fuels “if you live with the butterflies, you will die with the butterflies”.

    I think I’d rather be a butterfly.

  14. Barnaby is a disgrace.

    Joyce also dismissed concerns that the Adani mine could exacerbate environmental problems such as the release of coal dust into the Caley valley wetlands from the Abbot Point coal terminal during Cyclone Debbie, labelling it a “man-made wetland built for duck shooters”.

    Joyce said the cause of the damage was the cyclone which had also “pulverised the reef” and occurred because “it’s the tropics”.

    Joyce said that governments could mitigate environmental risks but in a “more competitive world … if you go for zero risk you may as well pack up and go home”.

    He said the Adani mine should not be stopped because of “dust blowing over a man-made duck shooting pond”.

  16. GG,

    If you are around a question without notice if I may?

    I was wondering if you have noticed a significant rise in houses and units going to auction and if so would that have any upward effect on the sale price ?

    The reason I ask is it seems any scrutiny as to the conduct of real estate agents is missing from the housing affordability debate and I was wondering if that is something that needs to be looked at.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers.

  17. lizzie @ #112 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:31 am

    The Nationals leader has given a full-throated defence of subsidising the mine, telling Radio National that Australians should support it because they are “citizens of the world” and warning those that oppose fossil fuels “if you live with the butterflies, you will die with the butterflies”.

    I think I’d rather be a butterfly.

    I’m very confused at that analogy.

    I think Mr Joyce is away with the fairies.

  18. Briefly
    Some of the best advice I ever had about investing in super echoed your remarks.
    My man told me superannuation was for my retirement. Not for tax planning in the here and now, not to leave my kids a fat inheritance, not to be manipulated to access the age pension.

    the result of following that advice meant that nearly four years ago when a redundancy was offered that payout on top of my super savings meant that I could retire comfortably at age 62.
    Allowing people to access superannuation for housing may have populist appeal but loses sight of Keating’s original objective.

    And as he will point out to anybody who asks, Howard and the Liberals opposed his plans with a passion, voting against every piece of legislation.
    I daresay Morrison has no commitment to ensuring the strength of the system. the only retirement income he is interested in his own.

  21. Grimace

    I think Mr Joyce is away with the fairies.

    I wish he’d stay there and stop interfering in things he knows nothing about.

  22. There are currently a number of coal mines in Australia that have been put on care and maintenance, and are for sale at bargain basement prices. These mines have all the existing infrastructure to get their product to the seaborne market.

    Does anyone know why Adani is planning to build a coal mine out in the middle of nowhere, with no existing infrastructure, when they could simply purchase any number of existing coal mines that will be ready to produce within weeks of the purchase being finalised?

  24. It will be interesting if the government does subsidise Adani. One billion dollars for one project that has questionable economic returns in employment etc yet the same government stood back and watched the car manufacturing industry collapse with far more of a social and economic impact on the Australian economy than one pissant mine. Make you wonder if the loan/ subsidy does go ahead how long before Gina, Twiggy and others appear with cap in hand.

    Cheers.

  25. Does anyone know why Adani is planning to build a coal mine out in the middle of nowhere, with no existing infrastructure, when they could simply purchase any number of existing coal mines that will be ready to produce within weeks of the purchase being finalised?

    A cynical person would suggest that they are just finding cover to get money out of India.

    I wouldn’t dare suggest that.

  26. Doyley,

    The limited amount of supply versus demand means you could sell tickets at an auction atm. So bidding is hot and RE Agents have an interest in getting as many people to attend auctions. This, of course, drives under quoting and bitter scenes when (especially young people) never have a chance to bid in some instances despite assurances of pricing ranges from unscrupulous Agents.
    And, it’s not just Real estate Agents. It’s Governments who fund their Treasury from Real Estate taxes, owners who want to maximise their sale, Financial Advisors recommending SMSFs and even humble Mortgage Brokers. All have a vested interest in keeping the prices moving up. The only people missing out are the FHBs.

    I recommend you have a read of the report I posted earlier for an overview of the markets in Sydney and Melbourne versus other regional locations.

  27. @Narns

    Sorry I missed it, but it seems like I wouldn’t have been able to make it in time anyway.

    I’m currently catching a connecting Blue Mountains line train and am reminded that every time I do I have to contend with tourists putting their bags on the seats in front of them. This was a constant nuisance when I lived in the Mountains and commuted regularly. There’s even a sign on this carriage that says ‘taking up all the space is a disgrace’ and people are still behaving disgracefully. People shouldn’t have to stand for an hour just so you can have a seat for your bag. There’s probably a more relevant place for this complaint, sorry.

    These aggressive rhyming signs have popped up in the time since I used to catch

  29. lizzie @ #100 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:07 am

    Barry Reynolds
    Having engaged Sherlock Holmes to find the cause of the mystery, we have discovered that a few enthusiastic barrackers cannot read others’ posts, hence the vague and unsatisfactory nature of the ‘arguments’, which never reach a conclusion. It seems that the ‘energy argument’ is just a cover-up for some deep-seated animosity. If electricity were removed, I fear that the combatants would simply find another subject.

    It is simply ideological where one side (individual) favours a solution reminiscent of Turnbull opting for FTTN and sticking doggedly to it despite all the evidence.

  30. …the train. I am disappointed they rejected my suggestion of ‘those who smoke ciggies between the carriages deserve to wind up in loveless marriages’.

  31. “I know young people don’t particularly want to buy a house. They move around with jobs and moving house helps taking up employment options possible. Melbourne used to be a place that you could commute form any suburb to any other suburb for work with little difficulty. Now it is virtually impossible to commute across the city so moving house increases the employment options”

    @PeeBee

    Sydney is also like this only moreso.

  36. blanket criticism @ #127 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:49 am

    @Narns
    Sorry I missed it, but it seems like I wouldn’t have been able to make it in time anyway.
    I’m currently catching a connecting Blue Mountains line train and am reminded that every time I do I have to contend with tourists putting their bags on the seats in front of them. This was a constant nuisance when I lived in the Mountains and commuted regularly. There’s even a sign on this carriage that says ‘taking up all the space is a disgrace’ and people are still behaving disgracefully. People shouldn’t have to stand for an hour just so you can have a seat for your bag. There’s probably a more relevant place for this complaint, sorry.
    These aggressive rhyming signs have popped up in the time since I used to catch

    My approach to such people is to ask them, in as good a humoured way as I can muster, if their bag has a ticket?
    Most catch on.
    The worst case I encountered was one stupid girl taking up 4 seats while people stood. Zero insight.

  39. Bemused

    How many Moslems celebrate Easter and buy Easter Eggs?
    This is weird.

    It’s just Hanson doing a little personal brand development. She needs to chuck some red meat (or halal Easter eggs) to the intellectually deficient that support her lifestyle. Probably running out of fuel for the plane.

  41. Blanket C, I used to commute by train and I was annoyed by people Putting their bags on the vacant seats beside them and then totally ignore anyone standing nearby.

    My solution….. I just sat on the bags accompanied with a hasty ‘oh I sorry’. Amazing how this focused the minds of my fellow travellers!

  42. My wife works for one of the Job Active providers and they had a stage managed visit from the minister yesterday, where the appointments of all but the highest caliber of job seekers were cancelled with a view to putting on a good look for the minister.

    I disagree with this approach because it’s important for the minister to get a realistic view of what happens in their programs. If the minister spent an hour with the normal range of Job Active clients then it would be obvious to her why a reasonable percentage of them can’t get a job.

    We can’t criticise our politicians for being out of touch if we only ever give them a highly stage managed view of what happens within their portfolios.

  43. This disappoints me greatly.

    SA’s desktop outsourcing to cost $394 million
    Some services will be delivered offshore.
    The South Australian government has revealed it will pay DXC Technology (formerly CSC) nearly $400 million to take over the full breadth of its end user computing responsibilities until 2024.

    The state announced it would outsource the desktop devices and support to CSC – which has since merged with HPE to form DXC Technology – in February, placing 180 public service technology roles in limbo.

    But the office of premier Jay Weatherill remained tight-lipped about the price of the massive deal at the time, revealing only that the government expected to save $11 million per annum compared to its EUC costs in prior years.

    It has now published the full seven-year contract value and a number of other terms of the DXC partnership.

    The contract reveals that some of the outsourced services will be delivered by offshore workers, despite the avowed pro-jobs rhetoric of the state government.

    “The customer acknowledges that the supplier will perform the services using personnel, resources and facilities located in offshore locations,” the contract states.

    “The customer and the agencies consent to such arrangements.”

    However it is much stricter when it comes to the handling of data, prohibiting any state government or customer data from being sent or stored outside of Australia.

    The contract documents do not refer to DXC’s promise to the SA government to retrain and hire up to 30 GM Holden workers who will lose their jobs when the car manufacturer closes down local production in October this year.

    Nor does it mention verbal assurances given to the premier and the state that workers currently employed by the government in desktop support roles will have an opportunity to go for parallel jobs with DXC.

    DXC – when it was still operating under the old CSC branding – says it will spend $5 million setting up a new Adelaide office expected to house 700 staff by the end of the SA government contract.

    What on earth is Weatherill thinking?
    Shipping Australian jobs overseas, particularly graduate entry level jobs.
    An this is surely a joke: “However it is much stricter when it comes to the handling of data, prohibiting any state government or customer data from being sent or stored outside of Australia.”
    Where it is stored is meaningless if it can be accessed from overseas.
    I despair!

  44. Bemused @1201
    ‘I have boycotted Cadbury since they stopped making decent chocolate.
    I don’t always agree with Bemused. but he’s spot on here!!!
    Btw, buying easter eggs, or any of the ‘quaint ‘figurines is an insanely non economic way of getting chocolate! (of course there’s the insane pleasure of breaking the egg!.” Like manÿ of the upper class, I like the sound of breaking glass!”‘)

  45. How many Moslems celebrate Easter and buy Easter Eggs?
    This is weird.

    I don’t think chocolate makers do a special batch of the brown stuff just for Easter.

  46. Rachel Maddow Refuses To Be Distracted By Trump’s Syria Stunt, Keeps Connecting Russian Dots

    While the rest of cable news fawns over Trump’s ineffective and unauthorized strike in Syria, Maddow didn’t flinch.

    As Maddow noted on Monday, the intelligence community continues to show that it’s hard at work in what many in the media seem to forget is a bleeping investigation into whether the current President of the United States worked with a foreign power to get elected.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/10/rachel-maddow-refuses-distracted-trumps-syria-stunt-connecting-russian-dots.html

  47. GOP strategist Rick Wilson blasts Reince Priebus: He’s not ‘adult’ enough to manage ‘man-baby’ Trump

    Appearing on MSNBC, GOP strategist Rick Wilson dismissed the idea that President Donald Trump is in the process of creating a “Trump Doctrine” calling the president a “man-baby’ who can’t “focus on anything for more than 30 seconds.”

    …. this is a president with a stalking gigantic case of ADHD,” Wilson began. “He cannot focus for 30 seconds on anything. Every bright and shiny object distracts him and he doesn’t believe anything in his heart. There’s no ideological North Star for this guy, there’s nothing he truly cares about except for his own ego. Everything is drawn to the event horizon of his ego.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/gop-strategist-rick-wilson-blasts-reince-priebus-hes-not-adult-enough-to-manage-man-baby-trump/

  48. Housing Affordability:

    It would never happen but I’d prefer moving away from auctions. I believe in Scotland that interested parties put in bids (as common in the USA) and they generally except the highest and best offer will win. The sellers then dont really engage in trying to raise the price and accept what is offered or refuse all if they are not happy. I dont believe it is regulation enforced but more the way the scottish property market works.

  49. Btw, buying easter eggs, or any of the ‘quaint ‘figurines is an insanely non economic way of getting chocolate!

    In my house, due to medical issues, we have resorted to making our own from dairy and soy free ingredients. Basic tools are a few silicone and plastic moulds and a basting brush, and the chocolate is Lindt 70%. Extra ingredients include desiccated coconut, rice bubbles, slivered almonds, bits of marshmallow, and so on.

    It’s a bit of a chore, but the end result is ridiculously good.

  50. peebee @ #141 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 12:13 pm

    Blanket C, I used to commute by train and I was annoyed by people Putting their bags on the vacant seats beside them and then totally ignore anyone standing nearby.
    My solution….. I just sat on the bags accompanied with a hasty ‘oh I sorry’. Amazing how this focused the minds of my fellow travellers!

    I have no hesitation in speaking up in such situations, even when sometimes I am not directly affected but those who are seem to be too timid.
    A few months back I gave a couple of schoolgirls the rounds of the kitchen when they were sitting in a seat designated for people with special needs and showed no sign at all of getting up for a woman with 2 young kids, one in a stroller and the other a toddler.

    Oh, did I mention they were from an expensive private school?

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