Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Newspoll doesn’t quite replicate the Coalition’s relatively encouraging result a fortnight ago.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian moves a point back to Labor after an outlier result a fortnight ago, leaving its two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down a point and Labor up one, and both One Nation and the Greens are on 10%, with the former steady and the latter up one. Still waiting on approval ratings, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-29 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is steady on approval at 30% and up two on disapproval to 59%; Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 32% and down three on disapproval to 54%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Massive ‘Impeach Trump’ Sign Steals The Show As Baseball Season Kicks Off In D.C.

    The Nationals were able to secure their first win of the season on Monday. Trump, on the other hand, is still winless

    While it’s never good news for a Republican president to see this type of response at an MLB game – after all, baseball fans typically lean conservative – it could have been much worse for Trump. The Washington Nationals had extended an invitation to Trump to throw out the first pitch, but he declined, likely because he was afraid of this very response.

  2. The Reply is useless because it causes posts to drop out of usable position. It’s only useful for a blog with few posts.

    So I’m reposting this by

    Player One
    You have to feel sorry for William in all this – one of the best political blogs in Australia, brought low by a bunch of technical incompetents. Traffic on his blog has dropped massively since the change, and the longer it goes uncorrected the more likely it is that many of the regulars will find alternatives, and never come back to either PB or Crikey.

  3. mari

    Check out @ricklevy67’s Tweet:
    Have u ever seen anything look so silly and contrived


    Doesn’t he look like an absolute f**kin’ DILL !!!!

    Almost as bad is the blur photoshopped image and story of Melania at the White House :

    White House releases official Melania Trump photo ‘taken in her new residence at the White House’

  4. lizzie
    The Reply is useless

    Totally agree, once your comment has dropped off the page you’d have no idea someone had posted a reply unless you could be bothered to go back and find the original post.

  5. .
    Okay, I give up.
    I’ll check occasionally to see if things have improved.

    This has been a great blog, I’ve been coming here pretty much every day, usually many times a day, since 2007, but it is now right royally stuffed. I guess all blogs have a lifetime, but this one has been prematurely trashed by Crikey.

    It is painfully obvious that Crikey would rather we all went away.

    If William starts over on a new site, I’d happily pay a subscription.

  6. OK, I’ll add one more complaint.

    Refresh the page, it goes to last entry, at the top. Fine, but the box on my pc is at the bottom of the page, so I have to scroll down to type. Just a nuisance.

  7. It is now over a week since this site disintegrated – nothing has been done by Crikey. And they expect people to subscribe? Derr.

  8. Gittins a bit fired up today

    “Cutting company tax creates jobs; not cutting it doesn’t. Nor does spending the money on education and health create jobs.

    This is economic nonsense. ScoMo regards it as a self-evident truth that cutting taxes creates jobs whereas raising taxes destroys jobs. Unfortunately, no one’s told the Scandinavians.

    In fact, there’s no empirical evidence of a relationship between countries’ level of taxation and their success in creating jobs.”

    will anbody else call Morrison on the lie? I wouldn’t bet on it

  9. Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated

    This is worth 7 plus minutes of your time.
    Keith Olbermann‏ @KeithOlbermann

    NEW VIDEO: Trump’s crazy tweets today? He’s panicking. Putin’s election-hacker in DC is ID’d, likely caught on tape:
    12:17 PM · Apr 4, 2017 from Takoma Park, MD

  10. Plus, while I’m having a whinge (and I don’t care who doesn’t like that), why are we not being updated more regularly than we are about the state of play with the blog!?!

    All we’ve got so far are vague promises of a return to ‘the former state of affairs…hopefully soon’!

    Not good enough.

  11. lizzie

    “Fine, but the box on my pc is at the bottom of the page”

    If you have CCCP installed disable Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey (whichever one you under ‘extensions’.

    Then refresh the PB page and the comment box should be at the top.

  12. I prefer the old format but I’m in for the long haul. I like reading Williams posts, I even like reading most of the comments. The format, gravatars, time stamps etc are just the garnish. I’d be happier with them but they aren’t why I come here.

  13. Just tried to ring Crikey about the blog and my subscription. Got a recorded message thing. I am another one who will not be re-subscribing until this is sorted. I may not have posted a lot, but enjoyed spending too much time reading the blog.

  14. “Fine, but the box on my pc is at the bottom of the page”
    I do not use CCCP and I get the comment box at top in all my browsers.

  15. “The Environmental Protection Agency has issued a health warning against barramundi caught in the recreational fishing ponds used as cooling for the now defunct Hazelwood power station, after a change in national guidelines.

    Barramundi were released into the 55ha Hazelwood Pondage lake system, which was artificially heated by water cycled through the cooling system for the power station condensers, in April 2016.

    At the time, Fisheries Victoria recommended consumption be restricted to between two or three servings per week. One serving of barramundi is measured as 150g for adults and 75g for children.

    Australian government lowers safe exposure levels of toxic firefighting chemicals

    Read more

    The reason for the limited consumption was the presence of per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a class of chemicals used in fire retardants and in a number of other industries, which take a long time to break down in the environment and often build up in fish.

    There is no evidence showing links between exposure to the substances and health effects in humans, advice provided by the Victorian government said, but some potential adverse health effects have been found in studies in animals.

    On Monday the EPA issued updated health advice recommending maximum consumption be reduced to one serving per week for adults and one a fortnight for children, in line with updated health guidelines from Food Standards Australia and New Zealand (FSANZ).

    “While the revised health based guideline values has resulted in a change to fish consumption advice, it does not change our understanding of the health effects of PFAS,” EPA Victoria said in a statement on its website.

    “The EPA is reassured by advice from the commonwealth department of health that the guideline values used to inform the initial health risk assessment and fish consumption advice was protective of health.

    “There is no reason to expect that consumption of barramundi from Hazelwood Pondage would lead to any specific illness or adverse health effects.”

    The updated FSANZ standards come as residents living near Royal Australian Air Force bases contaminated with PFAS prepare to launch class actions over their exposure to the chemical.”

  16. Some of you sound like kids in the back of the car: “Are we there yet?”.

    They’ll fix it when they fix it. Most here are non-subscribers (i.e. free-loaders), and so the sound of the complaining and – hilariously – the veiled threats to go away and never return, must ring fairly hollow in the Crikey executive corridors.

    Every time someone requiring premium service from a site they don’t financially support starts making demands and delivering insults at the service provider, someone in Crikey management must wonder why they bother paying for the endless flame wars on arcane points, the bitchin’ , the sheer ingratitude and lack of self-awareness they see.

    Thank your lucky stars Crikey provided the service at all, at any time. And quit whingeing when the lights go out for a short period – a week not being much in the grand scheme of things – while they try to improve the facilities, or change over to a new provider, or whatever they’re trying to do.

    To most of you, Crikey don’t owe a thing, because most of you don’t pay for the service. It really is a pretty simple equation.

    No amount of sophistry about”living in a society”, the revenge you’re going to take if the site’s not back up soon, or how you would’a, could’a, should’a solved the problem with a few keystrokes if you’d had the chance is going to influence someone in Bangalore, to whom Crikey is probably just one of a hundred sites they’re writing code for. They give a cheap service…and do you know why? Because Crikey can’t afford the Rolls Royce version.And do you know why that is? Because hardly anyone who comes here whining pays them anything at all when they get it right, preferring only to complain when they get it wrong.

  17. It would be nice to think this is an April Fool’s joke.

    Lᴏʀᴅ Wᴇɴᴛᴡᴏʀᴛʜ‏
    KPMG to consult on splitting firms into entities with a t/o of “no more than $49.999 miliion”, in move welcomed by BCA and CCI

  18. Poor old BB, in his dotage and getting grumpier every day.
    His haemorrhoids must be playing up something shocking!
    And the poor old soul apparently experiences auditory and visual hallucinations, having seen and heard a panelist on Q&A last night who wasn’t there.

  19. 2 weeks results are

    53 -> 53 -> 55 -> 54 ->53

    So that would put the default assumption (which may not exactly be right due to rounding and not knowing exactly if the first result was actually 53) for the 1 week results at

    53 -> 53 -> 58 -> 52 -> 54

    So the drop this week is the ridiculous sample from 2 weeks ago washing out of the system. Almost certainly this week was at least as good as last week for Labor 2PP

  20. Ugh, I cant math today.

    2 week: 53 -> 53 -> 55 -> 54 ->53

    1 week: 53 -> 53 -> 57 -> 51 -> 55

    So this week almost certainly a couple of points better than last week.

  21. Of course the whinger known as Bemused has to have a whinge about others whinging, and getting excessively personal while he does so.

  22. BB

    They’ll fix it when they fix it.

    Probably not. Past evidence suggests they simply haven’t got a clue.

    Most here are non-subscribers (i.e. free-loaders), and so the sound of the complaining and – hilariously – the veiled threats to go away and never return, must ring fairly hollow in the Crikey executive corridors.

    This site – like many – makes money through both subscriptions and advertising. Obviously I don’t know exactly how much revenue they get from each stream, but it is perfectly possible on a site like this for advertising to bring in more revenue than subscriptions. So it is not true to claim that threats of people deserting are “hollow”, and to call them “free loaders” is both incorrect and insulting – if Crikey doesn’t want non-subscribers contributing to this blog, they can easily choose not to allow it.

  23. CCCP? has this something to do with the old Soviet Union?

    I don’t know much about computers (some say I don’t know much period) but I do know I don’t have the problems with reading PB I often read people here complain about.

    Maybe that is because I don’t fiddle with settings I don’t really understand or run ad blockers and other things like STFU (what ever that is).

    I look at PB on a desktop with windows 10 and Chrome as the browser and it works fine. Bog standard, straight out of the box …

    IOS on the ipad is OK too.

    Had a problem with the desktop once and took it to a guy and he was almost relieved to find that I hadn’t fiddled or downloaded some obscure program from somewhere. Made sorting what turned out to be a hardware issue much easier. He hates it when teenagers (and younger) have had access to downloads.

    Now there may well be people here with degrees in coding and stuff … good luck to them.

    The changed format here has upset some people and that is their right but foot stamping doesn’t generally work.

  24. When WB brought PB over to Crikey around 2008 it was clearly stated that free access to PB would always be a part of the residency deal. So, to label people freeloaders because they subscribe to the stated terms and conditions of access is simply horseshit.

  25. lizzie

    Start the count down for a ScoMo claim that the LNP has created an economic miracle where there has been a 300% increase in the number of business’ with a $20-49.99 mill turnover.

  26. IMO, a freeloader on this Blog is someone who pops up occasionally and offers nothing but vitriol towards other posters.

    If posters contribute to a stimulating debate and the flow of information then the value of the site increases… more people want to view it… and more advertising money flows.

    Currently, which bracket are you in BB?

  27. Naff off back to your own blog, Bushfire Bill.

    I pay for Crikey, and if I want to put in a complaint about it, my money says that I can.

  28. David Lipson‏Verified account

    Morrison urges press gallery to go down to the pub and ask about benefits of company tax cuts rather than ask for economic modelling

  29. Voice Endeavour,

    So this week almost certainly a couple of points better than last week.

    I agree with that analysis as it seems to reflect Ipsos and the latest Newspoll.

  30. David Lipson‏Verified account

    Morrison urges press gallery to go down to the pub and ask about benefits of company tax cuts rather than ask for economic modelling

    They’d probably find a guy who would be a better Treasurer there.

  31. Hi everyone. After a period of feeling very negative about politics of any sort, I feel ready to engage in the debate again.

    But the site is a terrible mess and I can’t read more than a handful of posts on each thread.
    Anyway, it’s interesting to see Newspoll’s 53-47 replicated by ER. My gut feeling is that, if an election were to be held today, the Coalition would do a bit better than this and the result would be really tight. I’ve spoken to some Labor insiders in recent weeks, and they don’t seem to be too carried away with their lead in the polls.

    The only agenda that is really working for Labor at the moment is a rich vs poor sort of thing re low-paid workers, real estate barons, etc. Australian political history has shown that, while this sort of stuff creates a lot of enthusiasm among people who would generally vote Labor anyway (or Green, I guess), it doesn’t seem to exercise much of a magnetic effect on swinging voters come election day.

    Turnbull is a bumbler and his party is divided (although a little less so recently). But he personally is seen by a large proportion of voters as sitting firmly in the centre ground of politics, and this is something that seems to appeal to them. Labor’s response so far seems to be to move a bit further to the left. But they need to be careful, particularly in relation to boatpeople which I really hope doesn’t become a major internal party issue again before the next election: but I fear it might do.

  32. Bill Shorten can save the journo the journey.

    Bill Shorten‏Verified account @billshortenmp · 2h2 hours ago

     More

    Had a beer at the pub in Proserpine yesterday. Can assure you no one there was pushing for their bank to get a tax handout.

  33. Meher. Do you think Labor is moving to left in negative gearing and CGT changes to provide more affordable housing for middle and working class people or defending people, often middle class students, affected by penalty rate changes or likely to be pushed for in future or a reasonable minimum wage increase to help battlers and help increase spending? What had Labor done to move to the left.

  34. Wakefield
    What Mr Barber refers to as ‘moving to the left’ I call pursuing sound policy. I think there is now widespread acceptance of some of Labor’s policy prescriptions such as changes to negative gearing and CGT concessions.

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