Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Newspoll doesn’t quite replicate the Coalition’s relatively encouraging result a fortnight ago.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian moves a point back to Labor after an outlier result a fortnight ago, leaving its two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down a point and Labor up one, and both One Nation and the Greens are on 10%, with the former steady and the latter up one. Still waiting on approval ratings, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-29 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is steady on approval at 30% and up two on disapproval to 59%; Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 32% and down three on disapproval to 54%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The software guys broke the blog.

    They’re going to fix it.

    Why can’t you wait?

    It’s not as if the fate of nations depends on PB working.

  2. Senior Turnbull government ministers are hitting the hustings to promote a controversial youth internship program that starts this month.

    The PaTH program, announced in the 2016 budget, seeks to encourage jobseekers under 25 to do four- to 12-week internships by paying them $200 a fortnight on top of income support payments…

    Labor and the Greens don’t support the PaTH program, with concerns interns could be exploited and the jobs and wages of existing employees could be threatened by employers churning through participants.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/senior-ministers-push-youth-internships/news-story/e2a8f18b61cacf8569a8b42469c6032a

  3. Aha ❗ I see what you mean.
    I have been a complete arse, and now see that the blog is even more fucked up than I had realized.
    I note the other clever posters giving details of how to use the excellent work of BK in a roundabout way to circumvent those of the Supreme Council of Fuckeruppers who are busy making the blog virtually unusable.
    Even with the sniping, snarky and relentless advocasy of those pressing their claims to in/complete knowledge of this or that of the blog as it stood a week or so ago – with the benifit of Musrums addons, the blog was highly usable and very often amusing, sad, ridiculous, educational etc.
    Enough from me. Please forward a bag of choccy frogs Post Restant ASAP.

  4. One thing being overlooked in the #Tudgegate scandal is the role of the journalist and Fairfax for publishing the private info.

    I’m not a lawyer, but I’d imagine that if Tudge has committed a crime, the journalist has as well, ditto for Fairfax.

  5. victoria

    Yes, my comments are about the sector as a whole.

    My friends who work in high end private schools, however, report that they have a very deliberate strategy of employing cheap graduate teachers at the ‘low’ end of the school, and then move them on pretty quickly.

    It’s also been my experience that the condition of the classroom and the size of the class is dependant on the year level – big classes and shoddy classrooms for the junior years, small classes and lavish resources for the high end.

    Regardless of their structures, traditionally high end schools have used a number of methods to artificially inflate their outcomes – providing scholarships for the kind of student who flourishes in any educational setting helps beef up the numbers but means nothing about the likely performance of a more average student; weeding out students who are not going to ‘perform’ at Year 10, etc – which is one of the reasons why their students get higher ATARs than public schools students but then don’t tend to perform as well at University.

  6. There is a reason why it is marketed as an ‘exclusive’ on the Fairfax website. Nobody else but Massola was interested in being a sewer pipe for Coalition spin.

  7. From my favourite blogger 🙂
    “Michael Howard, former leader of the Tory party and semi-retired vampire, is outraged about the Spanish veto over any Brexit deal involving Gibraltar, which no one saw coming except people who were paying attention and who weren’t seduced by the Brexiteer conceit that the rest of the world is in thrall to the UK. Michael was so furious at the realistion that Brexit isn’t going to mean the EU is going to roll over meekly and give Britain everything that it wants that he went on telly in daylight. Michael risked self-combustion to remind Spain that Margaret Thatcher went to war with another Spanish speaking country in order to ensure that a small colony could remain British. Because comparing an EU democracy and another member of NATO to a Latin American dictatorship is really how to make friends and influence people in negotiations with the European Union. Britain goes to war to ensure that small British populations can consent to remain British, thundered Michael, who was coming perilously close to bursting into flame even without the assistance of the spring sunshine on his leathery vampire exterior.”
    …..
    “But it’s not entirely bad. First this week we had Westminster giving itself Henry VIII powers, and now it’s talking about going to war with Spain. There’s something consistently 16th century about it. And of course in the 16th century Scotland was an independent state, so we’ve got that to look forward to as well. ”
    https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/04/02/the-al-capone-of-europe/

  8. Regardless of Tudge’s other sins, I think he should be demoted because of robo-debt. Also, why aren’t Truffles and his team suffering more from all their stuff-ups? 😡

  9. Hi Don,
    Rather than copy-pasting links, holding down control as you click the link opens it in a new tab automatically (if you are not on a Mac). Also, shift+click opens the link in an incognito window in Chrome.

  10. Guytaur – this site is ‘resting upon’ wordpress … no way in the world they can institute anything like the one you cite.

  11. JenAuthor

    Well many sites are doing similar. I just note the Washington Post one because its a great example.

    Maybe Crikey should look at Squarespace or another site that gives more flexibility if they can’t manage a reasonable one on WordPress.

  12. Fate of nations?

    What about the fate of the protagonists in the modern versions of the 100-year war who seem to have been silenced by the glitch?

  13. X claiming that he did the best he could is hilarious. He could literally just have voted no on his own proposal and we would have got a better option.

  14. The payments to pensioners etc. will be “next financial year”

    Anybody want to suggest a date? I reckon later rather than sooner.

    The X man sounds like he really wanted to back the tax cuts and Morrison and Corman saw him coming.

    Once you have been been bought you are owned

  15. @ Victoria

    The other great unspoken in high end private schools which greatly effects results is socio economic status. Children from rich families have much higher rates of achievement, which has nothing to do with the quality of the teacher, class sizes or their aptitude.

  16. zoomster /victoria

    Please don’t talk about Victoria’s education system.

    It just leads to yet another dose of ‘the VCE is crap’ and after a couple of hours of that, it will then be onto the mental health system for a while and just to finish the day we’ll get a dose of the Melbourne metropolitan rail system.

  17. So Nick didn’t even bother trying to claim that $24 billion in tax cuts would benefit the economy. Instead, he justifies them on the basis that he was given a few trinkets. Beyond pathetic.

  18. If you’re on Windows you don’t need to copy a link, then open a new tab and paste it. You can usually just click on the link using your mouse scroll wheel. If that doesn’t work try right clicking and selecting “Open Link in New Tab.”
    If you’re on a i device then Google suggests:

    Then select “Open in New Tab” for iPad or “Open in New Page” for iPhone/iPod

  19. @ Zoomster

    When I was at uni I was a guild representative and had exposure to academic appeals as we didn’t have a large number of staff. It was my experience that the percentage of academic appeals initiated by private school students was greatly disproportionate to their representation in the greater university community.

    I remember once being contacted by the parent of on student who had approached me about an appeal and abused because I’d supposedly talked her daughter into dropping out of uni. A big part of her grievance was the money the students parents had spent on her high end education and the impact on her future of dropping out of uni.

    The sum total of me “talking her into dropping out” was looking at her academic record with her, having a chat with her about what she wanted and then asking her “What are you doing here

    at uni

    ?”.

  20. Economists just don’t seem to comprehend how much the world is changing.

    They expected that retail sales would increase, in a month when it was announced that take home pay would drop for many, due to decreased sunday penalty rates, and where the Federal Government is getting involved by requesting a reduction in the minimum wage (real terms). Surprisingly enough, they fell, due to people having less money to spend. House prices going up doesn’t convince home owners to spend more – they know that the value of their house is not real, and unless they plan to downsize, can never be accessed. people saving for a house, however, have to cut spending when prices are rising.

    They also can’t understand why job adverts are high and this isn’t flowing through to good employment figures. Again, the world has changed. With so many people on 12 month contracts, and with it beign impossible to get a pay rise by loyally sticking with a company, turnover is high. An increase in job ads 10 years ago, meant that in a few weeks, more people would get a job. An increase in job ads in this economy, means that a few weeks ago, people were fired. In a few weeks, they will be replaced by someone willing to work for cheaper. No net increase in jobs.

  21. After a day like that, you’ll be pining for some electricity market reform as light relief come the evening.

  22. LU – If I have to read ‘the metropolitan rail system is radial’ again I’ll probably go outside and mow down every plant in the garden with a brushcutter.

  23. .

    about an hour ago
    Libertarian Unionist

    Hi Don,
    Rather than copy-pasting links, holding down control as you click the link opens it in a new tab automatically (if you are not on a Mac). Also, shift+click opens the link in an incognito window in Chrome.

    Yours is a more elegant method. Thanks for that, I’ve found that command-click works on a mac just fine.

  24. Judith Bell‏ @judbell43 · now5 seconds ago

    Turnbull up in Townsville gave an interview and never mentioned Bill Shorten or the ALP once, can you believe it?

  25. Since the Ides Of March have been and gone, and The Coalition still languishing in the polls, it seems to be time to check ou the state of play in the Bludger Libspill III sweepstake.

    Those still standing are:

    Son of Zoom – pre-budget 2017
    Vogon Poet – pre-budget 2017
    Rogue Scholar – 2/5/2017
    Airlines – post-budget 2017
    Steve777 – June 2017
    Edward Boyce – June 2017
    BK – mid June 2017
    Bemused – up to 4 weeks after budget 2017
    Albo – 12 months time (September 2017)
    Puffy – Mid 2017 (or pre Xmas)
    Moksha – 5/9/17 – 11/9/17
    Nicole – September 2017
    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

  26. Newspaper’s vicious take-down of ‘demagogue’ Trump

    Our Dishonest President

    It was no secret during the campaign that Donald Trump was a narcissist and a demagogue who used fear and dishonesty to appeal to the worst in American voters. The Times called him unprepared and unsuited for the job he was seeking, and said his election would be a “catastrophe.”

    Still, nothing prepared us for the magnitude of this train wreck. Like millions of other Americans, we clung to a slim hope that the new president would turn out to be all noise and bluster, or that the people around him in the White House would act as a check on his worst instincts, or that he would be sobered and transformed by the awesome responsibilities of office.

    Instead, seventy-some days in — and with about 1,400 to go before his term is completed — it is increasingly clear that those hopes were misplaced.

    http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-ed-our-dishonest-president/

  27. Grimace

    from what I have gleaned so far, the high end private education system is a glorified networking system. lol!

  28. voice endeavour

    house prices going up doesnt assist in having more money to service loans. As I mentioned earlier, health insurance premiums have gone up, interest rates on mortgages have gone up which means there is less disposable income. another factor is that many on casual work conditions are getting less hours of work per week. meanwhile our govt continues to help the big end of town. What does Turnbull and co care. they just expect the rest of us to go into more debt. easy peasey

  29. victoria
    phoenixRed
    could anyone have expected anything good to come from a mobster, narcissist and sexual pervert!!

    *********************************************
    Sadly Victoria …. around 50 % of those who voted thought so ….. and some, despite having their noses rubbed in the Trump personality defects you listed, still do ….

    but the LA Times really did a number on him and maybe it will have some effect.

  30. So Nick didn’t even bother trying to claim that $24 billion in tax cuts would benefit the economy. ‘

    The government is the same, they seem to be finding it difficult to justify the tax cuts for economic reasons.

  31. President Trump Is Blistered In Scathing Editorial By LA Times Calling His Presidency ‘A Train Wreck’

    LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) — If President Donald Trump hated the New York Times and the Washington Post, he’s got a new publication to loathe.

    The LA Times on Sunday wrote a blistering, scathing, vitriol-filled editorial calling his presidency “a train wreck.” They called his agenda both “heartless and reckless.”

    It only got more pointed from there. The headline referred to Trump as “Our Dishonest President.”

    And hold on to your seats, the editorial board said this was just the first in a series of four editorials this week.

    http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/04/02/president-trump-is-blistered-in-scathing-editorial-by-la-times-calling-his-presidency-a-train-wreck/

  32. PhoenixRed

    The jester just happened to post this on twitter just now

    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r 1h1 hour ago
    More
    Numbers. US population is 300M.

    – Only 55.4% voted
    – Trump snagged 26.3%
    – HRC snagged 26.5%

    Result: 78.9M ppl decided the fate of 300M

  33. victoria
    PhoenixRed
    The jester just happened to post this on twitter just now

    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r 1h1 hour ago
    More
    Numbers. US population is 300M.

    – Only 55.4% voted
    – Trump snagged 26.3%
    – HRC snagged 26.5%

    Result: 78.9M ppl decided the fate of 300M

    ***************************************
    Yes ….. I did see Jester’s stats – and they make sobering reading – especially in the possibility that Russian influence – under all the guises that Louise Mensch is posting – in the states where the winning margin was so small made all the difference to who became President …

    ( Do you think Louise ever sleeps Victoria ?????? …… she really has an iron constitution and her brain seems to work overtime in bringing up new and fascinating ‘evidence’ that was the crucial difference )

  34. phoenixRed

    Mensch has stated over the duration that she has ADHD, and that this has helped her seeing patterns and connections in this imbroglio!

  35. Good afternoon all,

    I know I harp and harp about the ineptitude of this government but I find it hard to ignore.

    Yet again, the stupidity and fixation with playing constant politics and trying to wedge and ” apply pressure to Shorten and labor ” is jaw dropping both by the government and it’s MSM propaganda unit.

    Five weeks out from the budget which is the centre piece of the governments agenda for the year and all Morrison , Cormann and the fawning MSM can do is demand labor present its figures.

    At a time when Turnbull and Morrison should be weaving their budget narrative and set out their economic direction all they do is huff and puff and ” apply pressure” to labor. Labor must be lapping up the attention. The more Morrison goes hyper with his demands on labor the more the MSM will demand answers from labor the more labor will come across as a very viable, calm and confident alternative government.

    This next give weeks should be all about the government but the government, by its own stupid fixation with politics and wedges, is turning it into being all about labor and letting labor set the narrative.

    Amazing.

    Cheers.

  36. doyley

    this govt is achieving the outcomes they wanted.
    cut down on social spending and help the big end of town with tax breaks and reducing their wages bill for staff. the only problem they have is to convince the electorate that what they are doing is in their best interests.
    so their strategy is to attempt to make it a problem for Labor by applying pressure on Shorten etc. although, judging by the polls, the electorate arent buying it so far.

  37. victoria
    phoenixRed

    Mensch has stated over the duration that she has ADHD, and that this has helped her seeing patterns and connections in this imbroglio!

    ******************************************
    She is streets ahead of all the mainstream media in the material she has brought up and if Bob Dylan can win a Nobel prize for literature/music – I think Louise deserves a Pulitzer Prize for non–fiction reporting …

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