BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

One Nation and the Greens’ paths cross in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Still only the weekly Essential Research results to go on so far this year, and this week’s figures have made very little difference to this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, except that Labor gains an extra seat in Queensland. Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings. The looming resumption of parliament suggests Newspoll’s end-of-year sabattical will come to an end either Sunday or Monday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. Bemused

    Interesting list of suburbs where vaccination rates are low. Claremont and Cottesloe are the big surprise. Liberal voting private school educated people don’t vaccinate?
    The rest of the list would probably be no surprise to anyone who knows those areas well.
    Vaccination once came up in a conversation with my GP and he confessed that one reason he left a practice in Fremantle was he got tired of arguing with patients about it.

  2. Forgot to include the relevant quote on vaccination rates:

    Cottesloe, Claremont, Fremantle and Mundaring were reported as having some of the lowest vaccination rates for children under five years old while regionally, Augusta, Margaret River, Busselton and Manjimup were also behind the state average.

  3. dan gulberry @ #394 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 7:18 pm

    Given that uranium and the other fuelstocks for nuclear power are quite rare, nuclear power is only a temporary solution that will need to be replaced by solar, wind, wave and other renewable technologies eventually.
    Best to focus on those and abandon nuclear as an option.

    I am not a nuclear enthusiast, but isn’t there an abundance of Thorium?
    And what of Fast Breeder technology? Haven’t heard much about that lately.


  6. Interesting list of suburbs where vaccination rates are low. Claremont and Cottesloe are the big surprise. Liberal voting private school educated people don’t vaccinate?

    I was handing out how to vote cards last election and I had anti vaxers to the left of me and anti vaxers to the right. The Labor party seems to be the only sane party left.

  8. so if we need to spend 100’s of billions on defence then surely there must be good reason not to concentrate our power production in just a few easily taken out targets

  9. lord haw haw of arabia @ #398 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    ******************************************************************
    I recall when Steve Irwin was killed, and I lived on the Sunshine Coast at the time, I heard the news from a friend in New York before I heard it on Australian media. He was a big hit over there.

    I similarly learnt of it from overseas friends but not in the US. He was a big hit in quite a few countries around the world.

    I thought he was a bit of a wanker but nonetheless his death was very unfortunate and sad.

  10. paaptsef @ #408 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 7:59 pm

    so if we need to spend 100’s of billions on defence then surely there must be good reason not to concentrate our power production in just a few easily taken out targets

    You don’t need to target the plants, as SA demonstrated quite recently – just take out key elements of the network.

  12. Eureka! Scott Morrison high-fives Peter Dutton. The pernicious lie that our refugees are terrorists is one their party has actively fostered for years

    Morrison and Dutton – the Pernicious duo. I truly loath them.

  13. dan gulberry @ #411 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:03 pm

    player one @ #397 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 7:31 pm

    Actually, nuclear fuel is quite plentiful. As a stopgap option it is entirely sensible, since renewables cannot possibly scale to the required levels in time.

    Australia says, “Nah”.

    Apart from supplying uranium (which we do), Australia is irrelevant in this game.

    For us, natural gas is the best stopgap answer – easy, cheap, and allows us to meet our Paris commitments.

  14. psyclaw @ #387 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    William
    Thanks for your 2 recent posts about cutting and pasting Tweets and other stuff here.
    I was especially pleased by your comment about those comments which are totally a cut and paste from somewhere else, with no input from the PBer.
    Hopefully those who do this frequently take in your suggestion.
    Imagine this place if we all just cut and pasted things which caught our eyes.
    Personally, I never read them unless I can see that the PBer has added some analysis, comment, reflection, argument or opinion of their own ……. some “value adding”.

    I guess many here are not familiar with pinterest. It lets people copy and paste images they like.

    But that is what they do. I am very much into archaeology, and it pains me to see so many posts on pinterest of almost unrelated images (for example, a mish mash of ancient Egyptian sculptures, with no unifying theme or timeline) just because they can. There is no attempt at a story, no attempt to make sense of anything, just ‘here’s another pretty picture’.

    To each his own, I guess.

  15. “You don’t need to target the plants, as SA demonstrated quite recently – just take out key elements of the network”

    Which was fixed quite a bit quicker than it would take to rebuild a destroyed power station

  16. Interesting list of suburbs where vaccination rates are low. Claremont and Cottesloe are the big surprise. Liberal voting private school educated people don’t vaccinate?

    Surprising? Not really. These, along with Porche drivers, are the Entitled. The rules don’t spply to them. Vaccination carries a small risk. Let everyone else’s kids take that risk, mine don’t need to.

    Of course it’s a case of “what if everyone (didn’t) do it”. Don’t vaccinate their kids, they should take the (financial) consequences of their non-action.

  17. rossmcg @ #402 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 7:45 pm

    Forgot to include the relevant quote on vaccination rates:
    Cottesloe, Claremont, Fremantle and Mundaring were reported as having some of the lowest vaccination rates for children under five years old while regionally, Augusta, Margaret River, Busselton and Manjimup were also behind the state average.

    Can’t speak for the others, but Margaret River seems to be alternative lifestyle cashed up hippie heaven, perfect territory for the efforts of anti vaxxers.

  18. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    7m7 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING There are reports a US appeals court has denied President Trump’s request to immediately reinstate his travel ban.

  20. rossmcg @ #401 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    Bemused
    Interesting list of suburbs where vaccination rates are low. Claremont and Cottesloe are the big surprise. Liberal voting private school educated people don’t vaccinate?
    The rest of the list would probably be no surprise to anyone who knows those areas well.
    Vaccination once came up in a conversation with my GP and he confessed that one reason he left a practice in Fremantle was he got tired of arguing with patients about it.

    So IQ is poorly correlated with wealth.

  21. paaptsef @ #415 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:07 pm

    “You don’t need to target the plants, as SA demonstrated quite recently – just take out key elements of the network”
    Which was fixed quite a bit quicker than it would take to rebuild a destroyed power station

    Another advantage of renewables – most are dispersed, and not a good object to try to take out with a bomb or more sophisticated/expensive attack such as a cruise missile.

    It would be pretty hard to take out all the domestic rooftop PV panels, for example. Windmills are spread all over the landscape. Thermal solar you could take out pretty easily though.

  23. steve777 @ #416 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:10 pm

    Interesting list of suburbs where vaccination rates are low. Claremont and Cottesloe are the big surprise. Liberal voting private school educated people don’t vaccinate?
    Surprising? Not really. These, along with Porche drivers, are the Entitled. The rules don’t spply to them. Vaccination carries a small risk. Let everyone else’s kids take that risk, mine don’t need to.
    Of course it’s a case of “what if everyone (didn’t) do it”. Don’t vaccinate their kids, they should take the (financial) consequences of their non-action.

    Parents not having their kids vaccinated should be charged with child abuse.

  24. I always wonder why people complain about the look of wind turbines, for instance, but are quite happy for rows of wires to criss-cross every road … I mean, if you want ugly ….

  25. I always wonder why people complain about the look of wind turbines, for instance, but are quite happy for rows of wires to criss-cross every road … I mean, if you want ugly ….

  30. Don
    Hurricane Katrina highlighted the value of mico networks. When the wind stopped that was all that was left running. Regulations prevent there installation in Australia at the moment but it really is the future.

  34. #BREAKING There are reports a US appeals court has denied President Trump’s request to immediately reinstate his travel ban.

    Vic – Excellent if it holds.

    moron trump must be going even madder.

  35. dan gulberry @ #429 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:22 pm

    bemused @ #409 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:02 pm

    I similarly learnt of it from overseas friends but not in the US. He was a big hit in quite a few countries around the world.

    The first time I heard of Steve Irwin was when South Park took the piss out of him.

    I learnt abut him when I had an overseas friend mention the ‘crocodile man’. I immediately thought of Crocodile Dundee, but it became clear it was someone else and I did a bit of checking. Until then I had never heard of him. Was I just lucky?

  36. Surely, the heat this summer is going to persuade LOTS of people to get solar panels (and maybe wait a few years for the batteries). Seems to make great sense for people who are had home most week-days. You can just fire up the airconditioners and live in arctic conditions for basically nothing. Just went to a friend’s house and he had three airconditioners blasting out cold air. I begged him not to throw me out of the house.

  37. … I mean, if you want ugly ….

    Look at what the Libs’ spiv mates build – open cut mines, casinos, more glass and steel towers, resorts at natural beauty spots…

  38. Rather than waiting for 17 consecutive twitter messages, i am sweating on 17 consecutive negative polls for Malcolm. Or have we already passed that milestone? Has anyone on PB been keeping count?
    Now that parliament is due to resume i expect to see a flurry of them and am two minds as to whether the latest spiffing adventures of President Trumble have left him higher or lower in the polls.

  40. Bemused

    So IQ is poorly correlated with wealth.

    You’re not getting it.

    It’s a “I don’t give a F%ck about others” meme.

  42. bemused
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    dan gulberry @ #429 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:22 pm

    bemused @ #409 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:02 pm

    I similarly learnt of it from overseas friends but not in the US. He was a big hit in quite a few countries around the world.

    The first time I heard of Steve Irwin was when South Park took the piss out of him.

    I learnt abut him when I had an overseas friend mention the ‘crocodile man’. I immediately thought of Crocodile Dundee, but it became clear it was someone else and I did a bit of checking. Until then I had never heard of him. Was I just lucky?
    ***************************************************************
    We had Australia Zoo up on the Sunshine Coast, it was a bit hard to miss him.
    That said, he did do some good things for animal and habitat conservation.

  43. vic:

    CNN ‏@CNN 17m17 minutes ago
    A federal appeals court denied the US government’s initial request to resume President Donald Trump’s travel ban.

  46. dave
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:26 pm

    #BREAKING There are reports a US appeals court has denied President Trump’s request to immediately reinstate his travel ban.

    Vic – Excellent if it holds.

    moron trump must be going even madder.
    *************************************

    Excellent news.

  49. don @ #421 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 8:16 pm

    Another advantage of renewables – most are dispersed, and not a good object to try to take out with a bomb or more sophisticated/expensive attack such as a cruise missile.
    It would be pretty hard to take out all the domestic rooftop PV panels, for example. Windmills are spread all over the landscape. Thermal solar you could take out pretty easily though.

    Keeping your power in a disaster situation is a good reason for installing battery storage, but as far as powering the grid goes, it won’t do much. There will always be very big and very easy targets – whether nuclear, fossil or renewable – that supply the bulk of the grid power. And of course the grid itself is trivially easy to take out.

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