BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

One Nation and the Greens’ paths cross in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Still only the weekly Essential Research results to go on so far this year, and this week’s figures have made very little difference to this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, except that Labor gains an extra seat in Queensland. Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings. The looming resumption of parliament suggests Newspoll’s end-of-year sabattical will come to an end either Sunday or Monday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. [ If a few boats get through in the meantime a grown up country can deal with it.]

    Why would you say that in contradiction of all the evidence. Rudd’s precipitous fall in popularity, Gillard’s near death election, Rudd’s election defeat – all plagued by asylum seekers and Abbott’s remorseless exploitation of the issue.

  2. Steve,
    That’s the way it appeared with the original deal with Obama but it’s hard to see Trump agreeing without his pound of flesh added on.

  3. Not being an economist or a statistician I fully expect to be shot down in flames but I, for one, have never held much store by the CPI. It contains far too many goods and services that are not used regularly enough by individuals to count, in my opinion. I certainly don’t take an overseas (or even a domestic) holiday every month. Nor do I buy a new car or house.

    Also we all know that the % mentioned by the CPI bears little or no relationship to prices you actually pay for that kilo of lamb or the increase in your rent. Happy to stand corrected!

  4. “Pauline Hanson wants pre nuptials made mandatory so women can’t cheat men in divorce. Her misogyny is as disturbing as any man’s”

    This is pure cynical appealing to the reprobate vote. Did Hansen herself take the house(s) in her two previous divorce settlements? There are some interesting insights into her own character in this old SMH article, back when journalism was still alive.
    http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/gw-classics/pauline-hansons-bitter-harvest-20140828-109dbf.html

  5. Christopher Scott ‏@Orringa · 9m9 minutes ago

    NO! #Trump has just ordered the end of oversight into animal experimentation, circuses, puppy mills and zoos. #USPolitics via @kateemerson88

  6. Allan

    The CPI is actually pretty carefully measured and they do regular surveys to see what should be included. The individual cost indices are pretty good. The problem is that the CPI is an average. It applies literally to noone, just as no family has 1.8 children.

  7. Good morning all,

    The coalition continue to act as if they are in opposition not government.

    The post by cat before ( thanks cat ) re the interview with Tim Wilson is a excell not example.

    The coalition will continue to mouth on and on about cost of living, energy costs, putting money back in the pockets of Australians etc etc but Australians will only see electricity prices rising, private health costs rising and next week the coalition is pushing ahead with its child care package which will be bundled up with $6 billion worth of cuts to Family tax benefits. Putting more money back into the pockets of hard working Aussies ?

    The rhetoric is fine for a opposition campaigning to be elected but the coalition is not in opposition. The reality will be in stark contrast to what actually occurs and what Aussies are actually faced with every day.

    Turnbull and co will scream and shout but they will not deliver.

    Cheers.

  8. Alan /Soc

    I used to live next to the guy who was responsible for compiling the CPI.

    He said it was crap but was basically kept as it is because the swap to a more sensible index would destroy the ‘trend’ aspect. About 10 yrs ago they started collecting data for an alternative so that they’d have back data for a new measure but that seems to have gone nowhere and I guess with the cuts to staff levels not to much gets done other than the essential.

  9. Interesting to compare how news is reported. This Sky news story is about Trump’s reaction to the US Federal judge halting his travel ban. There was no story reporting the ban itself or how it arose.
    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/02/05/trump-vows-to-fight-court-s-travel-ban-ruling.html

    Note the airbrushing:
    – no mention of Trump’s outrageous comments on the judge
    – no mention of the judge by name, or the fact he was a moderate Bush appointee.

  10. CTar

    Thanks. In that case my comment is obsolete except for the average bit. The CPI was once carefully weighted. If they are not updating it as you say, then it is no better than the Labour Force survey, which we found some big discrepancies in for Adelaide a few years ago.

  11. Soc

    Note the airbrushing:
    – no mention of Trump’s outrageous comments on the judge
    – no mention of the judge by name, or the fact he was a moderate Bush appointee.

    Yep. Noticed both.

    Trump just damages his own cause with his dumb tweets.

  12. Socrates Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 11:36 am

    Interesting to compare how news is reported. This Sky news story is about Trump’s reaction to the US Federal judge halting his travel ban. There was no story reporting the ban itself or how it arose.
    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/02/05/trump-vows-to-fight-court-s-travel-ban-ruling.html

    Note the airbrushing:
    – no mention of Trump’s outrageous comments on the judge
    – no mention of the judge by name, or the fact he was a moderate Bush appointee.

    ******************************************

    His latest tweets blame Department of Homeland Security

    CNN’s Ana Navarro was quick to point to the real culprits in the Trump administration – “Not a Homeland Security Travel ban. It’s an unconstitutional ban cooked up by couple of malevolent and incompetent keystone cops in Trump WH”

    The Department of Homeland Security did not issue the ban. Donald Trump did. Telling lies now won’t change the fact that he tried to ban Muslims from these shores and failed – failed spectacularly.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/04/donald-trump-claiming-muslim-ban-homeland-security.html

  13. Soc – The bit that used to really p#ss Michael off was that it was used for all sorts of purposes that it was never designed for. Politicians just adopted it because they thought they understood it.

  14. More than 23 .7 million Australians don’t watch Sky News or even know who Ross Cameron is. It’s only audience is the press gallery, political staffers and most backbencher. It has zero influence.
    The only time it registers is when some idiot politician stuffs up an answer. That is replayed by the ABC.
    In my ageing view, David Speers and Jim Middleton are basically the only journalists employed by the network that are unbiased and always professional.

  15. ctar1 @ #168 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 11:49 am

    Soc – The bit that used to really p#ss Michael off was that it was used for all sorts of purposes that it was never designed for. Politicians just adopted it because they thought they understood it.

    One thing it was and continues to be used for is indexing public service pensions. That was very convenient because for years it ran behind both real increases in relevant costs and the AWEs. In the last few years, though, that position has reversed. Even though CPI growth is very small, it still outstrips AWEs. Let’s see what happens….

  16. victoria @ #123 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:19 am

    Zoomster
    Cost of housing is what is the most pressing issue. Especially for those entering the market

    It seems to me that the cost of building a house is not the problem.
    The problem lies in the price of land or the price paid for location.
    And on top of those underlying features is the ‘bidding war’ exacerbated by low interest rates, negative gearing / capital gains tax concession and foreign money.
    It is a tough problem and is going to take a long time to fix.

  17. Al Pal

    David Speers and Jim Middleton are basically the only journalists employed by the network

    is probably all you needed to say.

  18. Phoenix

    Telling lies now won’t change the fact that he tried to ban Muslims from these shores and failed – failed spectacularly.

    It’s seems a lost cause to claim the order wasn’t aimed at Muslims. There’s an interview with Rudi Guiliani who says he was specifically tasked with making it look otherwise.

  19. TPOF

    In the last few years, though, that position has reversed. Even though CPI growth is very small, it still outstrips AWEs.

    I have a particular reason to have noticed this.

  20. Al Pal:

    I also don’t mind Speers. At least he’s a good interviewer and many of his colleagues would do well to ape his style.

  21. Bemused

    The problem lies in the price of land or the price paid for location.

    Absolutely. And the problem with negative gearing tax breaks as is currently formulated is that it principally rewards investment in land, rather than investment in housing.

    Of course, there has to be accommodation available to let in order to claim a tax deduction, but those who can most afford to invest in the most expensive properties and therefore get the highest tax deductions (both for the size of the loss and the marginal tax applying to gross income) are not actually providing much in the way of actual accommodation, as the housing value is a small fraction of the total property value.

  22. c@tmomma @ #141 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:44 am

    Barney Not In Saigon!
    I think Turnbull actually played the situation quite well but I’m terrified at what Trump may ask in return if the deal goes through.
    An ‘Authoritative Source’ that I heard speculating about the quid pro quo for Australia was a minimum of a Battalion when Trumpzilla goes back to Iraq to take their Oil (!!!)
    And/or Australia agreeing to send a Battleship to test China’s resolve in the South China Sea via a Freedom of Navigation mission(!!!)

    Australia has never had a ‘Battleship’ so your source has little credibility.
    AFAIAA there are no operational Battleships in any navy. They are obsolete.

  23. It’s Time @11:07: I said a grown up country could deal with it. On the other hand you are correct in saying Australia has been unable to. There are conclusions to be drawn about our country.

  24. Socrates

    I share your doubts on the CPI. As a single retiree living modestly on superannuation the price of utilities (electricity, gas etc) and health insuranceis probably a much bigger proportion of my budget than for a two-income family (with 1.8 children) on $150,000 a year.

    When the last of my adult sons moved out a few years ago the electricity and gas bills weren’t halved! The fixed charges stay the same no matter how much you use.

    But rising public transport costs mean nothing (I bus and train for free) and even fuel costs for the car are low (despite Perth seeming to regularly have the dearest petrol and diesel in Australia) because apart from when I am touring the usage is nothing like when I worked.

    I am sure there are many other examples.

    But somehow the CPI figures have assumed holy writ status.

  25. Bemused

    Australia has never had a ‘Battleship’ so your source has little credibility.

    Being a little ‘picky’ or what!

    It’s quite obvious C@ just means a navy combatant ship.

  26. The antics of the lamentable Trump may make us laugh, weep or very fearful. But he’s not to be underestimated. Every time he’s written off, he comes back twice as strong.

    At least two members of a panel of US experts on BBC radio today reckoned that Bannon could be laying the foundations for fifty years of extreme nationalism in the US.

    Already, Trump is raising funds to strengthen his hold on Tea Party repugs and disillusioned unionists while seeking inroads into the Latino and black vote.

    There is no viable opposition in sight.

  27. Steve

    ‘There are conclusions to be drawn about our country.’

    Only if you can point to other countries who are gleefully accepting asylum seekers.

    Merkel was forced to very quickly modify her agreement – and she was only accepting asylum seekers for processing, not permanent settlement.

    Greece and Italy are facing real and substantial problems because no one is willing to take the asylum seekers who are arriving on their shores – and they are reacting in similar ways to Australia, with boat turn backs and detention centres.

    Australians appear to be reacting in the same way other human beings do in the same kind of situation.

  28. Yes, the CPI is not a true reflection of the cost of living (which is why I also linked to Jericho’s article) – we get back to stats having to be comparable historically (no use having CPI figures going back decades if the mix of costs is changed dramatically from one to the other) and internationally.

  29. [Australians appear to be reacting in the same way other human beings do in the same kind of situation.]
    Ah the lord of the flies defence, or the ‘everyone burns witches’, ‘everyone buys slaves’, ‘everyone discriminates against gays.’

  30. ctar1 @ #183 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 12:08 pm

    Bemused

    Australia has never had a ‘Battleship’ so your source has little credibility.

    Being a little ‘picky’ or what!
    It’s quite obvious C@ just means a navy combatant ship.

    She was quoting a source who was supposed to be authoritative.
    I don’t think her source is worth very much.

  31. WWP

    I’m not defending anything, but human beings are human beings.

    There are too many ‘solutions’ offered which are based on the idea that human beings are something different to what they are, but any solution which does work has to deal with reality, and that includes recognising human nature.

    Of course Australia can and should deal with the refugee issue more humanely. That’s a different issue to deciding that Australians are worse people than the rest of the world, which seems to be a working assumption for some here.

  32. [That’s a different issue to deciding that Australians are worse people than the rest of the world, which seems to be a working assumption for some here.]
    The systematic torture, sexual, physical and mental abuse of innocent refugees, which we are doing in a way that very few others in the rest of the world is doing, really really makes it hard for you to make your case. Obviously the State of Israel and its ongoing slow but deliberate extermination of a people is a lot worse in scale but that is the company we keep with our refugee torture policy.

  33. WWP/frednk

    I was responding to a particular post, and stated there that you can only say ‘Australians are worse’ – ‘ Only if you can point to other countries who are gleefully accepting asylum seekers.’

    I don’t dispute anything you’re saying about either Nauru or Manus, which I have been opposed to from the day they were first instituted.

  34. Yeah I understand Zoom, but frankly I think Manus and Nauru put us pretty close to bottom of the heap. In slightly different ways Canada and Europe are light years ahead of us, and I only get to really see Europe through the lens of Australian media which is largely entrapped and entranced by Trumps ‘Islam – evil’ mindset although most aren’t smart enough to realise it. So I assume Europe is actually doing a lot more, and a lot better than we get to see, but even if they aren’t they are light years ahead of us in terms of basic human decency even if they don’t get to some kind of ‘generous wonderful’ level.

  35. boerwar @ #195 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 12:36 pm

    \\\
    Actually, I am trying to make more sense than Trump.

    Excellent work mein hair ❗
    C’Est Si Bon.
    Most excellerment du joir garçon avec le plus grande bullsheet and force 6 wind from the starboard quarter.
    Je havez been enjoy de most great votre bonza post, Señor, sank vous so mucho.
    ☺ ❤ :silly big smilie with long curly hair:
    Ve abez retirez from the fencez vork for a couple of days. Veddy , veddy hot tomorrow and a good day to do SFA.

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