BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

One Nation and the Greens’ paths cross in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Still only the weekly Essential Research results to go on so far this year, and this week’s figures have made very little difference to this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, except that Labor gains an extra seat in Queensland. Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings. The looming resumption of parliament suggests Newspoll’s end-of-year sabattical will come to an end either Sunday or Monday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  2. Morning all. As usual, Trump dominates the news with his rant of the day. And that is all it is – a hate filled rant against a very cautious judgement, by a republican appointed judge noted for bipartisan decisions.

    At this point it is clear that Trump is incapable of tolerating any viewpoint different to his own. He will neither use power wisely, nor give it up. He is part of a populist movement that is not actually populist in the sense of being believed by the majority, but tells irrational people what they want to hear. It exists in Australia as well as the USA. Howard and Turnbull pandered to it, while Abbott is part of it. John Quiggin sums it up well in a thoughtful piece on Crooked Timber:
    “I’m not going to attempt a complete definition, but the core elements are white/Christianist identity politics, a pro-rich but not pro-market economic policy agenda and “big man” authoritarianism. Although these elements predate Trump’s rise to power, explicit support for Trump is now part of the package.”
    http://crookedtimber.org/2017/02/03/trumpism-in-australia/#more-41220

  4. Of course, like others, I agree that if Trump starts rejecting the right of Courts to restrict his government to operate within the law, then he is in danger of becoming a tyrant. Aristotle summed it up 2300 years ago.
    “governments which have a regard to the common interest are constituted in accordance with strict principles of justice, and are therefore true forms; but those which regard only the interest of the rulers are all defective and perverted forms, for they are despotic . . . .”

    Have a good day all. Trump will have to reign in his excesses or either the Republicans will need to deposs him, or he will destroy US society.

  9. I just heard a long interview with Tim Wilson on ABC Radio. I discerned 3 major themes that I think the government will be running with this year.

    Overarching all is the word, ‘Security’. So we will hear until our ears bleed this year the terms, ‘Energy Security’ and ‘National Security’. Not that either are particularly at threat, except in so much as our Energy Supply will continue to be damaged by the increasing frequency of Extreme Weather Events brought on by Global Warming Climate Change. Ditto National Security being threatened by the reckless actions of Trumpzilla, as opposed to the Terrorism threat, which we have basically had under control until Trump came along.

    The other memes that Wilson trotted out were that the government wants to ‘put money in your pocket’ and ‘reduce the Cost of Living’. Which they will do by ‘driving Electricity prices down’ (not that Coal-fired Power Stations will do that as has already been demonstrated, but hey, they’ve got the Alternative Facts’ that says it will).

    So all I can say is that Labor need to get their ducks in a row to clounter these canards forcefully and repeatedly with simple and easily-comprehended ideas and statements of their own.

  15. The Coalition can go as hard as they like on “energy security” ..and spruik “clean coal” for their mining masters until the cows come home..

    ..Aussies ain’t stupid enough to swallow that guff anymore..

  16. Comical Ali has issued a written statement referring to Turnbull as the ‘President of Australia’.

    Guys, it’s called Google!

  17. Fess

    I was going to post Bill Maher too. Thanks for saving me the trouble!
    I enjoyed it, but would have liked to hear more from Rick Wilson

  19. More detail here —

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6401.0Main%20Features2Dec%202016?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6401.0&issue=Dec%202016&num=&view=

    However, as Jericho points out, the cost of living isn’t (or shouldn’t be) a concern for most of us. As the ABS figures show, much of the increase has been driven by tobacco prices; the ABS assumes each family spends money on tobacco.

    Nowadays, that isn’t true of (most) Australian families – which means that the impact of tobacco rises is even greater than calculated on the households where there are smokers.

    Take tobacco rises out of the equation and (most) families haven’t seen much change in the COL at all —

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/aug/09/never-had-it-so-good-the-misconceptions-about-the-cost-of-living

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/feb/02/the-cost-of-living-is-easing-so-why-doesnt-it-feel-that-way

    If the Coalition is going to focus on the cost of living, they’re perpetuating a falsehood – when they could be telling a good story.

    It’s very tin ear politics.

  20. Morning PBs from rainy Adelaide,
    I’ve snuck back in for the 1st time in 3 years to see what you’ve done to the place.
    Observations
    F#@& Oz is expensive.
    Centerline seems to have dropped of the radar, hope that changes this week.
    The Advertiser’s only purpose is to contribute to global warming by reducing tree numbers.
    Trump is playing “Trumble”but it’s good to see the courts are starting to show him the limitations to his authority.
    I think Turnbull actually played the situation quite well but I’m terrified at what Trump may ask in return if the deal goes through.
    Looking forward to Parliament this week so Labor can start sticking it up them and remind the voters what a horrible Xmas this mob has had and what a pack of bastards they are.
    I’m not if it’s the politics or the weather but I’ve been left feeling cold. 🙂

  27. Zoomster

    Of course it isn’t on their radar.

    Their solution

    Get a better job
    Get parents to pay
    Or move to the country

    You knows it makes sense

  28. ..Aussies ain’t stupid enough to swallow that guff anymore..

    I’m not so sure. They returned the Coalition in July knowing their true agenda (or should have known).

  29. Vic
    I’ve learnt one thing, as expensive as beer is, I’m now a cheap drunk, 3 pints of Pale Ale and I’m gone. 🙂

  32. Barney
    Call around, I can use a hand doing some fencing work this morning.
    Genuine offer of coffee and biscuits to suit your taste.
    Please bring a copy of your : “wot I done on my holiday trip to oz” with you.
    Love and kisses.
    From KJ and Abbee the assistant fencing dog. ❤ ❤

  34. Ross Cameron is one twisted individual. He is a regular on Sky and he supports Trump all the way. At the expense of even Turnbull and Co. What an a@se wipe


  36. Pauline Hanson wants pre nuptials made mandatory so women can’t cheat men in divorce. Her misogyny is as disturbing as any man’s

    Pauline Hanson wants the $2.xx for a first preference vote; nothing more and nothing less.

  41. Barney Not In Saigon!

    I think Turnbull actually played the situation quite well but I’m terrified at what Trump may ask in return if the deal goes through.

    An ‘Authoritative Source’ that I heard speculating about the quid pro quo for Australia was a minimum of a Battalion when Trumpzilla goes back to Iraq to take their Oil (!!!)

    And/or Australia agreeing to send a Battleship to test China’s resolve in the South China Sea via a Freedom of Navigation mission(!!!)

  42. Trump has taken “are you scared yet” too far, it is not stating to effect people. People are no longed scared to push pack. Liberals are on the wrong band wagon with that one.
    Renewable energy; it’s time has come; time for solutions not excuses to build more coal fired power stations. Liberals are on the wrong page for that one too.

  43. BK Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:39 am

    The cartoonists in the US are really getting on the job!

    *********************************************
    It’s a sad sight of total ridicule, BK …… to see the Leader Of The Free World/Most Powerful Man In The World …….. getting ridden as Bannon’s Bitch

  45. C@tMomma
    “Overarching all is the word, ‘Security’. So we will hear until our ears bleed this year the terms, ‘Energy Security’ and ‘National Security’. ”

    I take it there will not be so much talk about “job security”? Economic growth is in per capita terms zero. Those million jobs Abbott promised are nowhere in sight, deader than support for Gonski. It is almost as if Abbott never promised them to get elected in the first place. Turnbull asked us to stick with the plan. What is the plan for job creation?

  46. The appeal “It’s not fiction; they are alternative facts”?


    For Mr Trump’s order to be constitutional, Judge Robart said, it had to be “based in fact, as opposed to fiction”.

  47. Didn’t Australia agree to take some Latin American refugees from the USA?

    In any case, if the USA is stuffing us around, surely we should just walk away from the ‘deal’ and work out a fair arrangement for those stuck in island hellholes (‘fair’ from now on. Nothing can undo the past). What sort of deal? There are easy moral solutions, but that Turnbull wanted the job. I think the Government should just take a hit and bring them to Australia in a one-off deal. And Australia has to start working on some proper regional arrangements with our neighbours, especially Indonesia, to address the flow of asylum seekers and tackle people-smuggling? If a few boats get through in the meantime a grown up country can deal with it.

  48. bk @ #138 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:39 am

    The cartoonists in the US are really getting on the job!
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    BK
    Bad boy ❗
    If Corgi and Captain Whatshisname from W.A. plus Erica and George whatsis from Qld see that, they will, with luck, explode.
    Just a thought (one of my rare moments) – when the troops used to say “backs to the wall, men” – saying now long gone, I hope, our worthies still think somebody, anybody is after their saggy ……………..(space for adjective) asses.
    Ah! Yesssssss, indeedy, “Pride Goes Before a Fall”.
    Getting too hot for fencing work. I have done one whole panel so far – just raising the panels about 50mm.
    Be good. ✌✌ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇

  50. Why do the journos never seem to ask pointed questions about the reality of global warming (forget Dubbya’s ‘climate change’, that allowed doublespeak)?

    And now a new report from another US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has recommended a revised worst-case sea-level rise rise scenario of 2.5 metres by 2100, half a metre higher than their previous assessment. The upper limit for sea-level rise now set at 5.5 metres by 2150 and 9.7 metres by 2200. It says sea level science has “advanced significantly over the last few years, especially (for) land-based ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica under global warming, and the correspondingly larger range of possible 21st century rise in sea level than previously thought”.

    …
    Extreme heat. Extreme melting. Extreme sea level rises in train. This is not the story of future climate change, it is the story of now.

    http://www.climatecodered.org/2017/02/record-busting-heat-in-eastern.html

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