Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, but Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings improve slightly after post-election dip.

No change in the two-party preferred reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average this week, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40% and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull recovering slightly from his post-election dip, with approval up one to 38% and disapproval down five to 43%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 37% and steady at 41%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is up from 39-31 to 40-30. Other questions find opinion finely balanced on the effect on Australia of “globalisation” (29% gained, 29% lost, 18% neither). Forty per cent of respondents were ready to subscribe to the frankly idiotic view that “Australian trade with other countries” causes Australia to lose more jobs than it gains, with only 28% providing the correct and obvious answer. The poll also finds 45% approving of the census keeping names and addresses versus 39% disapproving; 47% saying the state of the economy is getting worse, with only 13% saying it’s getting better and 25% saying the recent interest rate cut will make them better off versus 29% for worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,566 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @ My feeling regarding letter writer last night. He is entitled to his opinion. Why shouldn’t he be. William responded with his and Williams the man in PollBludger Land. I must say I thought William’s response was pretty on the mark too. 😀
    I don’t see what’s the big deal myself. I myself would be sad to see Cat and Bemused gone regardless that we disagree sometimes.

  2. Amber Dekstris
    Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    My view, FWIW, is that posts about posters should be discouraged and posts about issues should be encouraged. Posts about posters diminish the blog IMHO.

    I agree. I’ll try my best in future.

    I don’t see what Colton is so upset about, though. I read PHodgson’s letter (email) as a call to lift our bloody game.

    Yeah, and I could quite easily have made it onto that list, so don’t think I’m pointing at the ones actually named.

  3. Nothing triggers intelligent and sensible debate like crazed, irrational and vitriolic abuse directed at just about everybody else, followed by passive-aggressive sooks about being the victim, and then rapid-fire stream-of-consciousness post after post ravings.

    Seriously – re-read the above days’ post and ask yourself “Do I sound sane?”. because I’m guessing you don’t to most of us here. Go for a walk and think it over.

  4. kezza2 @ #3502 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 2:09 pm

    Amber Dekstris
    Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    My view, FWIW, is that posts about posters should be discouraged and posts about issues should be encouraged. Posts about posters diminish the blog IMHO.

    I agree. I’ll try my best in future.
    I don’t see what Colton is so upset about, though. I read PHodgson’s letter (email) as a call to lift our bloody game.
    Yeah, and I could quite easily have made it onto that list, so don’t think I’m pointing at the ones actually named.

    Hahaha yes I read it and thought omg, who can he be talking about, it could be anyone. I hope not me lol. Then there was the drumroll.

  5. SF

    Sook is a term used by bullies in the schoolyard. Most of it homophobic when used against males. Certainly a weapon against their masculinity.

    Pointing this out takes strength to challenge the status quo.
    Its victim blaming pure and simple.

  6. I’d just like to say one thing about Paul Hodgman’s letter last night, which seems to have escaped the notice of many.

    He was willing to lodge his complaint here, in public, with his own name attached. He apparently does not use a pseudonym, as many here do (wait – let me check his census data …. nope, not a pseudonym …) or simply send a private email to William “on the quiet”. He posted it here, in full, so that we could all see it and comment.

    Whether you agree or disagree with him, that was brave (or perhaps “crazy brave). And I think it is an indication of how fed up many PBers are with the appalling behaviour that is on display here day in, day out.

  7. kezza2 @ #3498 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    Is it safe to come out yet?
    Parapet’s almost cleared, KayJay

    Thank whichever God you prefer. I have just been playing Johnny Cash’s “Forty Shades of Green”. I wondered for a while whether the basis of humanity is itself was a forgotten dream. Carry on kezza2 – we do whatever approximation of the best we can is possible at any given time. What is a kezza2?

  8. SAF

    Sook is an term of attack on masculinity that is similar in degrading and belittling as the use of the term of hysterical is for women

  9. Interesting that Barnaby and Malcy are off to give Murray Goulburn management a severe wet lettucing the day after the 4 Traumas exposee of the state of the dairy industry. Government action seems to be triggered with a monotonous regularity by this program. Maybe the conservative infestation of their ABC is only partial, and there is hope for it yet.

  10. Dtt,

    Thanks for your reply.
    Not wanting to be rude but if you do not know the post from last night that Bemused and I were discussing which Nicole butted into to give her worthless and unasked for opinion of then how the hell can you comment?
    The whole discussion started because Nicole rudely butted in to a conversation (which is her right) and called me a sook.
    I immediately responded which for god knows what reason drew you into a discussion which i thought was a snark tinged but good humoured bit of banter between us.
    Guytaur then inexplicably leapt in and called me a supporter of Malcolm Roberts?
    Guytaur often says moronic things so I engaged in a bit of banter with him.
    Again in good faith and without insult from my end originally.
    I have enough respect for you to ask you to go back and read this mornings bullshit from the original comments between Bemused and I.
    Follow the conversation and then come back to me and show me where I was rude, crude or whatever other insult said about me this morning.
    Then a few weak pussies who were in no way involved, not mentioned and seemingly without any understanding of the discussion called me a dickhead, 14 year old and the most offensive person on this blog.
    That is why I asked you and those pissants I wont even mention by name If you had read the original post from last night and if you have read it what was your opinion iof it?
    I think its only fair to ask seems the whole discussion stemmed from that post.
    I commented on that post. I think I left no-one in any doubt as to my opinion of that letter so I fail to see why people who couldnt even be bothered to read the post from last night see fit to criticise me for that.
    Show me one example of me abusing, criticising or provoking anybody this morning previous to the posts insulting me.
    You will not be able to.
    FFS. Im over trying to engage with people who are essentially dishonest.

  11. Ctar

    Yes but people still do it. Best way to stop anyone going on about it is no personal attacks.

    However I am addressing the term itself and how its used.

    Do you disagree with what sook is used for?

  12. Well said Player One.

    Trog, I’m waiting for 4 Traumas (like it) to do a ‘story’ on Nauru, although that may be a bridge too far.

  13. trog sorrenson @ #3510 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 2:22 pm

    Interesting that Barnaby and Malcy are off to give Murray Goulburn management a severe wet lettucing the day after the 4 Traumas exposee of the state of the dairy industry. Government action seems to be triggered with a monotonous regularity by this program. Maybe the conservative infestation of their ABC is only partial, and there is hope for it yet.

    I seem to saying last week that #NauruFail was designed to take attention away from #CensusFail (or was it the other way round?). Anyway, someone else commented that there was sure to be another catastrphophe soon that would take attention off both. And they were right -#MilkFail is sure to distract attention from both #CensusFail and #NuaruFail!

  14. “the angry white male as a demographic is funny and true”

    If the price of improving the way we communicate is that we can’t say “angry white males” anymore then I can live with that.

  15. The reason I am going on about Sook is that casual words have impact and can lead people to feeling so down on themselves they kill themselves if they are referred to by a label like that long enough.

    None of us know what bullying someone has gone through in School being called a Sook Nancy Boy and other such adjectives and what triggers it holds for people today.

  16. Gt

    Do you disagree with what sook is used for?

    I can’t be bothered in having an endless exchange with you. I’ve said what I think.

    So good day to you.

  17. A number of footy clubs have No Dickhead Policies these days. Most internet forums would be vastly improved if they followed their lead.

  18. Re: Sook – and on a lighter note.

    in 1996 or thereabouts Newt Gingrich got kicked out the US house for ‘un-parliamentary language’ for calling someone a sook. This when PJK was in full flight as PM. Peacock, Downer and Hewson would have loved to only have been called a sook.

    I grew up with, and now use the term sook in a gender neutral way with my son and daughter, and is a pretty gentle word in our household – and I also apply it to myself (as in “Are you/I’m having a bit of a sook about…”. And “Oooooh – sooky-la-la” is used between all members of the family in the same way as we use “should I call the waahhbulance?” for minor complaints).

    Any kid at my school who used the term ‘sook’ as a bullying word would have been laughed at or beaten up for using such a lame term :).

  19. And for the record. yes, I can give P Hodgman credit for using his real name but I find the content of the letter utterly shit and an attempt to silence Bemused, C@tmomma and Zoomster.
    It is all very well and good to say that you did not take the letter personally however considering it did not name anyone but those i mentioned above by name it really is irrelevant what you think.
    I wonder how your reaction would be if I had of written a note explicitly calling for the banning of 3 posters I disagree with?
    Because essentially that is what the author of last nights letter which started this pointless shitstorm this morning was doing.
    The fact that 2 out of the 3 posters named saw fit to thank me for my reply last night is all I need.

  20. guytaur @ #3509 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 2:19 pm

    SAF
    Sook is an term of attack on masculinity that is similar in degrading and belittling as the use of the term of hysterical is for women

    It gets used on females too. I see it a throwback from times gone by when having a stiff upper lip was sometimes a matter of survival and served a purpose. I’m just thinking in text though, who knows such things. Right on cue, YouTube’s auto-playback starts playing Bob Dylan, The times they are a-changin. Hahahaha

  21. [Interesting that Barnaby and Malcy are off to give Murray Goulburn management a severe wet lettucing the day after the 4 Traumas exposee of the state of the dairy industry.]

    The co-op is owned by the farmers, turnball and joyce are going to find out how much money they need in a bailout, probs around $300-$350 mill.

    The money will be pumped in to then returned to farmers as a dividend, the management will take the fall.

    This is not a multinational or large company screwing over farmers, it is the farmers own public company wholly owned by them.

    malcolm and joyces prompt actions and chest beating for a public unlisted company to help out shareholders brought in financial difficulties by their own management really contrasts to their behaviour to the banks who really are screwing over the public.

  22. I think in 95 to 99% of cases sook would be considered fairly mild. But context does count and it’s not hard to imagine scenarios in which it is truly hurtful and devastating. “Pansy” on the other hand is an out and out homophobic slur. Sorry mate, seems like most here have stopped biting. You’ll have to get your dose of argy bargy elsewhere

  23. Guytaur, it is very telling of you as a person that you complain because i called you a sook but seen completely unaware that Nicole was the person throwing that insult around first this morning when she typically and gracelessly butted into a convo between bemused and I.
    I await your condemnation of Nicole for being nasty to me.
    im sure it will occur because i dont think you are a weak hypocrite and you would condemn Nicoles attempt to denigrate my masculinity by calling me a sook.

  24. [I seem to saying last week that #NauruFail was designed to take attention away from #CensusFail (or was it the other way round?)]

    Anyone here who did their census before the crash, would be interested to see if you could redo it again, as to do so would mean there was data lost.
    I did mine before the crash but unfortunately threw away the password.

  25. Shift

    I am trying to get people to have empathy for someone on the receiving end.

    Most of the time Sook used on this blog is used in the shut up your emotions don’t count or your boring for bringing up bullying.

    There are times its not of course. However if you have not been bullied at school and called a sook continually by classmates how do you know how it feels?

  26. Colton

    Note I reacted to how you used the term. I also did not see Nicole’s post and was not going back to look at it.

    The meaning of Sook is the same no matter who uses it and applies to everyone when its used as an attack on someone saying your such a sook for reacting to comments so you can take it as read it applies to all.

  27. Shiftaling,

    It Was not meant as a homophobic slur.
    I did that once before when using the word ponce for which I was big enough apologise for both to the person involved and to all posters in a general apology I made.
    In this case it refers to a weak and feeble man who IMO lacks balls and fortitude.
    I stand by it.

  28. What about that bastard Rudd, eh? And how good does Gillard look now in comparison to the current omnishambles of a government?

  29. Nicole, no you are confused. Or deliberately sneaky.
    Go back and read the thread.
    I was talking to Bemused about my new profile pic.
    You replied with some comment about me being the one who was triggered and called me a sook.
    I then responded to you.
    Then Dtt and Guytaur jumped in followed by others calling me a dickhead and using the murder of my parents to make some cheap point about me.
    Why did you respond to my comment addressed to Bemused?

  30. Guytaur, I do agree with you.those are the cases – where accompanied by bullying, and used to belittle someone’s reaction to bring bullied – I meant when I said the minority would be devastating and yes I completely agree that it’s unwarranted.

    Of course any nitpicking over the intensity or interpretation of various insults begs the question of why anyone feels the need to use any insult at all! It’s juvenile whoever does it

  31. Guytaur,

    Give it a break.
    I do not agree that Sook is as big an insult as you obviously do.
    I was called a sook. I call others a sook. So what.
    You can not be that sensitive surely?

    Still waiting for your explanation for calling me a supporter of Malcolm Roberts?
    Any reasonable person would find that far more offensive then being called a sook.

  32. Hard to get a word in edge ways at the moment here, but on matters to do with WA politics, I had my cynical view of some political journos vindicated last night on ABC (local) drive programme.
    I have held to the view that quite a few journos actually don’t care about politics at all, but are more interested in the concept of, “I get something out of this if only you two would put on a public fight.” Well, in discussing the battle which is going on between the Libs and the Nationals – and not to mention the Libs between the Libs here in WA, the ABC politic’s correspondent let the cat out of the bag.
    When asked what she thought of it all (among other things) she gushed that up until a few weeks ago she thought the run up to the March election was going to be “so boring”. “But now”, she opined, “with all this in-fighting it is going to be an exciting time.” What she really mean was that she got a real kick out of watching (and reporting on) a political fight rather than concentrate on the harder stuff of analysing the why behind it all.

  33. Love the “big enough to apologise” as if it’s some kind of laudable character trait, whilst engaging in exactly the same behaviour. Lesson clearly not learned

  34. Colton

    Ask Dr’s how damaging being seen as a sook is in men not having regular check ups with GP’s

    Using such terms has real health effects

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