State of confusion: day two

An extra cautious Australian Electoral Commission will not resume counting until tomorrow, allowing a helpful breather for those of us trying to keep on top of the situation.

The Australian Electoral Commission is dampening expectations about the progress of the count:

The initial sorting and collation of postal and other declaration votes already received by the AEC will finalise on Monday. The AEC will also check every declaration vote against the electoral roll and other requirements in order to include them to the count. Once this examination process is complete, the counting of declaration votes recently included in the count will begin. This is expected to be on Tuesday. Postal and other declaration votes will continue to be received, sorted and included in the count up until the deadline for receipt on 15 July.

What this amounts to is the AEC taking extra special care to ensure there are no repeats of the Senate fiasco from Western Australia in 2013. Many will grumble about the slow progress, but you can’t have it both ways. So no counting yesterday or today, which I’m personally relieved by as it’s giving me a chance to wrap my head around a complex situation. Here’s how I described it in response to a commenter’s query on the previous thread:

Barring some freaky late count development in a seat currently off my radar, I have the Coalition home in 70 seats, Labor home in 65, others home in five, and ten up in the air (though I haven’t yet absorbed Kevin Bonham’s notion that the Liberals could theoretically win Melbourne Ports, as may the Greens, although a Labor win seems most likely). So they would need to break 8-2 to Labor for them to win more seats than the Coalition (UPDATE: I beg your pardon — make that Coalition 69 and Labor 66, and Labor needing a break of 7-3). Out of the ten, I would, in descending order of degree, rather be in the Coalition’s position in Dunkley, Chisholm, Gilmore and Capricornia, and Labor’s in Herbert, Cowan and Hindmarsh. There are three seats I don’t even care to speculate about:

Flynn, because the LNP would make it home if they did as well on pre-polls and postals as last time, but that was apparently because they did well from fly-in fly-out workers, of which the electorate now has fewer with the end of the mining boom. It’s also possible that Labor has run a stronger postals campaign this time after abandoning the seat as a lost cause in 2013.

Forde, because there looks like being so very little in it.

Grey, because we don’t know enough about the preference flow yet, but the early indications are encouraging for the Liberals.

I’ll have a more detailed paywalled account of the situation in Crikey later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,294 comments on “State of confusion: day two”

Comments Page 2 of 26
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  1. AEC presser says there are 3 million votes yet to be counted, half of them postals and the otsent her half declaration/absent votes. Seems we will not know the result until after July 15th – Meantime, Coalition forces are scrounging for someone to replace Turnbull. Abbott ? No. ScoMo ? Sure if you want to lose the next one. Bishop will not survive this mess either. The icing on the cake for me would be if Dutton got smashed in the postals and declared-votes and lost his Qld seat too.

  2. abcnews: .@AntonyGreenABC says even if Turnbull Government returns they have a “terrible” Senate to deal with #ausvotes

  3. Greens insiders are venting their frustration on NSW Greens, saying their campaign was outdated and failed to capitalise on the increasing number of inner city progressives after leader Richard Di Natale defended the party’s national results on Sunday.

    The Greens are unlikely to gain a second lower house seat and have lost South Australian senator Rob Simms in South Australia, who was seen as a rising talent.

    Mr Simms said he was disappointed with the result which he attributed to the rise of Nick Xenophon Team in the state. The Greens had a 2.3 per cent swing against them in SA.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-recriminations-begin-after-greens-fail-to-gain-lower-house-seats-20160703-gpxg7l#ixzz4DO2lLrs4
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  4. So, thus far Wilkie, McGowan, Katter and Bandt have ruled out accepting any position within the government and I think Sharkie did so as well yesterday at the ABC 24 interview with Xenophon yesterday.
    So where does this leave Turnbull now if he cannot get over the line?

  5. Guardian Australia‏ @GuardianAus
    Britain must have a general election before activating article 50 | Nick Clegg

  6. Meher

    McGowan has ruled out accepting the Speakership (posted the article yesterday).

    She really has no idea of practical politics. Her thrust has been ‘make Indi marginal’ and to point to the achievements of Oakeshott and Windsor (in a nod,nod, wink, wink way), yet at the same time she rules out ‘doing deals’.

  7. Bk, freed from the yoke of Tory rule your sleep patterns have changed. 🙂

    From what I saw the pick is Andrew Elder, though I will pick up a freebie copy of the GG to read the quoted article.

  8. zoomster

    In some ways, she’d be more useful and get a higher profile as Speaker. Almost similar to the Westminster model of having a neutral Speaker.

  9. On Brexit for a moment, it is hard to imagine anyone who would have less credibility to comment than Nick Clegg.

  11. Bruce Hawker no doubt also thinks that all great big new tax cutting a swathe through the economy and the Ditch the Witch stuff were all fair enough because Gilkard walked into a trap of her own making with the carbon tax.

    Policy details never seem to have mattered much to a spinmeister like Bruce. No doubt if Bruce had been advising the Liberals, he would have recommended that they go with something like “Labor has a secret plan to tax the family home.”

    People like Bruce have had a fair bit to do with the deterioration of political debate in recent years.

    And, yes, I think Vanstone was right. Labor ran a scare campaign based on a wilful misinterpretation of the facts. It worked. But, as Abbott found, there are sometimes consequences for this sort of behaviour.

  12. lizzie @ #29 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 7:48 am

    The Medicare campaign was based on a projection from a premise: that because the government was outsourcing a small corner of Medicare, the whole lot could go. So far as Wright was concerned, this tapped a core weakness of the Coalition: that it did not support Medicare, or that it supported it only grudgingly while looking for ways around it. This was the fear to leverage.
    The Hawke ad was launched on YouTube on June 11 and on TV on June 12. It ran as free as a rabbit in a field for nearly a week. “You don’t set up a Medicare privatisation taskforce unless you aim to privatise Medicare,” Hawke told viewers.
    By June 16, fast-rising anxiety had gripped Victorian Liberal officials. Voters in marginal seats were responding to Hawke — and older voters, who pinned health as their top item, were raising concerns about Turnbull’s plans to privatise Medicare. Told it was not true, these voters still thought it sounded right. Turnbull had no such plans. But it was too late. The Hawke ad had bitten deeply.
    The party’s activist Victorian president Michael Kroger and his state deputy, Simon Frost, decided to push Coalition campaign headquarters to act — they needed a ­rebuttal and it had to be fast. Some of the state directors were already concerned about whether the campaign was too lifeless, with its clinical jobs and growth message. Labor’s Medicare ad was biting in Victoria.

    Not paywalled.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-inside-story-of-how-labors-mediscare-plot-was-hatched/news-story/51ee0223bfe1f0922cd6d15f447e692f

    Great article. I had to go through Google to get it because it is now paywalled (at least to me).

    One interesting thing is the amount of misogynistic anger and spite directed at Erinn Swan. The coalition supporters read it as though she was behind the whole campaign, although all she did was come up with the idea that Bob Hawke should do an ad that was by any measure quite legitimate.

  13. What the cross bench should insist on is instigating a neutral speaker along the UK model. Create a review and get serious about it.

    In the meantime Adam Bandt would make a great Speaker as would Wilkie. However neither will take it.

    So I suspect we will have the same Speaker as in the last parliament.

  14. mb @ 8.28

    No doubt if Bruce had been advising the Liberals, he would have recommended that they go with something like “Labor has a secret plan to tax the family home.”

    Done already in 1980. Based on a loose comment by Peter Walsh. Could well have been what killed Labor and Bill Haydon in that election. I remember seeing John Hewson being proud of coming up with that line while working on Fraser’s campaign. What goes around……

  21. Lol

    Sky News Australia
    37s
    Sky News Australia‏ @SkyNewsAust
    Michael Kroger says Labor ‘fraud’ on Medicare texts has a long way to go in terms of AFP and AEC investigation #ausvotes

  23. Even more lol

    Sky News Australia‏ @SkyNewsAust
    Michael Kroger says @TurnbullMalcolm’s campaign performance was superb #ausvotes

  24. Labor ran a scare campaign based on a wilful misinterpretation of the facts.

    The LNP, your preferred party because you subscribe to their economic mythology and vandalism, have form in this area. They break health care-related promises in a brazen manner. They promised not to cut health or education spending prior to the 2013 election; they cut both savagely and breezily directed the state governments to deal with it. The Liberals fought vigorously against the establishment of Medibank, the precursor to Medicare, and they abolished Medibank when they got the chance during the Fraser Government. The LNP has always despised Medicare on ideological grounds and constantly strives to degrade it into a user-pays, two-tiered system.
    The LNP would certainly love to privatize Medicare, and even if they never achieve that de jure they have long tried to do so in a de facto fashion by freezing Medicare rebates in nominal terms, ramping up public spending and tax policy coercion towards inefficient and inequitable private health insurance, and trying to introduce co-pays for primary care.
    You are thoroughly naive for trusting the LNP’s assurances regarding Medicare.

  25. You’d think there’d be more analysis on the lines of ‘what did Labor do to gain so many seats and votes in such a short time?’ but it appears that the media are going to take the “Labor only won because of Medicare boo’ line.

    My local paper (which I can’t be bothered linking to) is the same. The majors, it opines, should have done what Cathy McGowan did (according to her hagiographers, at least) and get out there and talk to ordinary people.

    Which is, of course, exactly what Shorten did. He not only talked to far more ordinary people than McGowan, he did it in a far less sheltered format (hers were half a dozen community think tanks).

  26. It was encouraging. From Ackland article.

    One encouraging aspect of the 2016 election result is that the very best and worst efforts of the Murdoch press have not mattered a hill of beans in the outcome. If anything, the over-larded bias proved to be counterproductive to anyone other than the rapidly decreasing clutch of rusted on believers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/04/even-if-they-can-form-government-it-will-be-a-sour-little-victory-for-the-liberal-party

  28. Poor Kroger, I’ve seen a copy of that text and good luck getting any mileage out of that.
    Their is no law concerning truth in advertising when it comes to politics and elections.
    Kroger forgets opening that can of worms will cut both ways.

  29. The Libs have only been trying for 40 years to destroy Medicare.
    Labor was right to run a scare campaign because the Libs Medicare intentions were scary.
    Libs can whinge till the cows come home. Labor’s message resonated because the underlying truth of their assertion is undeniable.

  31. greensborough growler @ #79 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 8:53 am

    The Libs have only been trying for 40 years to destroy Medicare.
    Labor was right to run a scare campaign because the Libs Medicare intentions were scary.
    Libs can whinge till the cows come home. Labor’s message resonated because the underlying truth of their assertion is undeniable.

    Exactly. And the older and more reliant on Medicare people are, the more they have the lived experience of the Fraser government and all the subsequent attempts at killing Medicare.

  32. My take is that Brexit was a factor.

    It sowed doubt into the punters’ minds, and the Coalition relaxed. The journalists relaxed too. Here was their “It’s all over now. You can stop thinking” moment at last!

    But when the Brexit clouds cleared – it was just a passing storm front after all – they weren’t ready for the punters to come back on course.

    Bill Shorten, ever the Tortise, just kept plodding along, doing what he’d done for the past year or so, while Turnbull the Hare stopped again to preen himself and blow kisses to the crowd, way too early. There are too many reports telling us how he relaxed in the final days. They can’t all be discounted.

    What I liked about Shorten was how he stood up to the bullies. Leigh Sales’ two efforts immediately come to mind. She was so rude and dismissive. “Wrap it up” and her outright laughter at Shorten when he said he’d continue campaigning, just two days before the ballot, were notable, and shameful episodes.

    I have this theory that Shorten, not a big, physical man, not possessed of a loud, booming voice, learned early how to gain advantage in an argument by use of his wits rather than his fists. He doesn’t seem to scare easy, either. Faced with open mockery from not only Sales, but the rest of the Gallery, he smiled that bemused smile of his, and just kept on. I don’t think that Turnbull and his crew were the first to underestimate him, and they won’t be the last.

    Faced with suggestions that he should start shouting and hyperventilating, as Abbott had done, throwing his weight around, showing what a big man he was, he took the other course: slow and steady, stick to the plan, fight only when you believe you can win. And then hammer it.

    He’s taken the party from a disorganized rump, a rabble of competing factions and jealousies, close to wiped out in 2013, and he has given them a goal and the hope of achieving it.

    I saw for the first time how bad Labor’s situation was when Shorten called on an early morning vote on SSM one day last year. The chamber had close to a 100% turnout for Labor, and few desultory Coalition MPs on the other side of the chamber, tapping away at their iPhones. But when he called the vote, unexpectedly, and the bells were rung, the Coalition were able to fill the chamber with not even the majority of their members. An 80% turnout for them overwhelmed Labor’s numbers and the motion was defeated by something oike 75-55. The Coalition weren’t even trying and they overwhelmed Labor’s numbers. That’s when I realized what Shorten had done. He’d punched way above his weight, got the Party believing in itself and had made it cheeky enough to propose surprise votes on the floor on an unwinnable proposal. The achievment wasn’t in winning the day, because it was lost badly. It was in expressing enough confidence to bring it on.

    A political party is not a cricket team. You don’t have to be the champion batsman or the best bowler personally to lead a political party, as you do with a cricket team. You don’t have to be able to solve all the problems, sort out all the factions and rivalries, but you have to know someone you trust who can. This is the lesson Shorten has learned through a lifetime of winning against the odds.

    Turnbull, on the other hand, has always been a loudmouthed bully, a big presence in any room, full of his own magnificence and intelligence. A lot of people fall for this up-front, and can never shake off the expectation that one day he’ll deliver. But he rarely does. Turnbull is a lone wolf. He hires his help, pays them well and expects results from them. If an investment doesn’t come off paying double, there’ll always be another that pays triple to cover it. You can only work that way when you have resources to burn, which Shorten did not.

    Think of what he has achieved by hardly lifting a finger in anger: Abbott gone, Hockey gone, the 2014 Budget defeated and now probably gone forever, Turnbull humiliated, the press pack likewise, and Labor back in the game.

    And he didn’t have to shout, rant, rave or preen himself once.

    Not bad for a Walking Dad Joke, eh?

  33. Morning bludgers

    The fiberals squealing about a scare campaign is gotta be the biggest laugh ever. And the idea that sending texts re medicare is somehow fraud. Really? This from Kroger the f wit who set up the HandsofftheCFA and collected donations etc under the guise of the CFA. This mob are beyond disgraceful

  34. zoidlord @ #71 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 8:44 am

    Lol
    Sky News Australia
    37s
    Sky News Australia‏ @SkyNewsAust
    Michael Kroger says Labor ‘fraud’ on Medicare texts has a long way to go in terms of AFP and AEC investigation #ausvotes

    Has Labor referred the Parakeelia rort to the AEC and the AFP? There might be more meat there, I think.

  37. And if I were team Labor I would now sit back and watch the fiberals cannabilise themselves. I have stocked up on the popcorn in anticipation

  41. Good morning (sort of) Dawn Patrollers.

    Let the diagnoses begin!
    Matthew Knott – It was a lazy campaign that left Turnbull struggling. He was like a footballer running down the clock. Did he give it all he had?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-how-a-lazy-campaign-strategy-left-malcolm-turnbull-struggling-20160703-gpxbte.html
    Simon Breheney gets right to the point by telling Turnbull that saying you have a plan isn’t good enough. You actually have to HAVE one!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/saying-you-have-a-plan-isnt-enough-to-win-an-election-20160703-gpxj7a.html
    Kristina Keneally writes that Shorten fought on policies while Turnbull sat back waiting for people to elect him. She does write a good article.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/03/shorten-fought-on-policies-while-turnbull-sat-back-waiting-for-the-people-to-elect-him
    Bolt helps explain with his stunning demonstration what is wrong with the extreme right.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/07/03/in-one-stunning-tantrum-andrew-bolt-has-summed-up-everything-wrong-with-the-extreme-right/
    Urban Wronski – Tasmania leads the nation.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/07/03/tasmania-leads-the-nation/
    One leader has grown – another has shrunk.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bill-shorten-looks-comfortable-while-malcolm-turnbull-has-missed-his-mark-20160701-gpwgp4.html
    “View from the Street”- So how’s that horrifying realisation dawning Malc?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-hows-that-horrifying-realisation-dawning-malc-20160703-gpxdou.html
    Laura Tingle on the now unlikely joint sitting for the ABCC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/pms-margin-so-thin-no-point-holding-joint-sitting-josh-frydenberg-concedes-20160703-gpxfds.html
    John Hewson on how Turnbull left a vacuum for Shorten to fill. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/election-2016-despite-global-risk-turnbull-left-a-vacuum-for-shorten-to-fill-20160703-gpxhu9
    Turnbull will have to now face a superannuation backlash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-faces-superannuation-backlash-as-postmortem-begins-20160703-gpxbi3.html
    And the Monkey Pod mob is emboldened. Some Coalition MPs are saying that the election will be decided within the next six months when one of the parties first implodes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-faces-backlash-as-blame-game-begins-20160703-gpxcr9.html

  42. GG

    I was extremely confident and sure that following the election, Turnbull was going to be stuffed whatever happened. Unless of course the result was going to be status quo. And We all know that was never going to happen. Lol!!

  43. Section 2 . . .

    Shorten’s campaign was near perfect and had great support on the ground.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/bill-shortens-bus-and-medicare-the-story-behind-labors-successful-campaign-20160703-gpxfta.html
    Adele Ferguson tell us to get ready to watch Turnbull’s tightrope dance of compromise and negotiation. Google.
    /news/politics/election/malcolm-turnbull-must-now-dance-the-tightrope-of-negotiation-and-compromise-20160703-gpxicr
    Will Turnbull become our sixth shortest serving PM?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-sixth-shortest-term-ever-a-prospect-for-malcolm-turnbull-20160703-gpxh3y.html
    Here’s Bolt’s answer to the Coalition’s problems. No surprises here. Google.
    /news/opinion/andrew-bolt/only-tony-abbott-can-fix-what-malcolm-turnbull-broke-in-the-liberal-party/news-story/52abeac6c66ec81279128860ef244b62
    According to Tim Dick this election result could mean it will delay marriage equality for a further three years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-wont-have-the-marriage-equality-it-wants-for-at-least-three-years-20160703-gpxc30.html
    Turnbull’s disaster has smashed Abbott’s landslide says politics academic Nick Economou. Google.
    /opinion/election-2016-malcolm-turnbulls-disaster-has-whittled-away-abbotts-landslide-20160703-gpxkcj
    Hartcher has the gall to talk about the all-consuming narcissism of both parties! This guy writes some shit at times.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-result-reveals-both-parties-have-lost-themselves-in-an-allconsuming-narcissism-20160703-gpxbd3.html
    Latika Bourke – Let the recriminations begin! She kicks off a new weekly curation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/recriminations-begin-abbott-forces-angry-bernardi-warns-of-farright-briggs-blames-bishop-20160703-gpxptx.html
    Rebekha Sharkie’s great win in Mayo. (Forgive men for gloating!)
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/04/rebekha-sharkie-indi-example-jamie-briggs-mayo
    Jamie Briggs (Jamie Who?) points the finger at Julie Bishop for his demise. Google.
    /federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-beaten-briggs-hints-at-julie-bishop-payback/news-story/259ef3308ef10335d32212aa2c14d89f
    Some interesting observations from Amanda Vanstone here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/this-is-no-time-to-drag-liberal-party-to-the-right-20160703-gpxgkt.html
    What a wild mix the Senate has been thrown!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-results-senate-count-throws-up-a-wild-mix-as-one-nation-fred-nile-liberal-democrats-vie-for-seats-20160703-gpxc8r.html

  44. Peter Martin gets to the hub of the “Mediscare” issue. It’s because there really was a reason to be afraid!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-mediscare-campaign-worked-because-voters-were-already-scared-20160703-gpxbhw.html
    Richard Ackland describes the Liberal Party as a burnt and broken enterprise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/04/even-if-they-can-form-government-it-will-be-a-sour-little-victory-for-the-liberal-party
    A hung parliament will be bad for business say some.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/malcolm-in-the-middle-business-despairs-election-uncertainty-20160703-gpxb06.html
    Ross Gittins tells the Coalition to get real. A good article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/voters-reject-economics-as-usual-20160703-gpxchd.html

  45. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Nice work from Andrew Dyson with the democracy sausage sizzle menu.

    Pat Campbell uses the sausage sizzle metaphor too.

    Matt Golding and stability.

    Mark David has been productive!
    The first day of stable government.

    Turnbull’s judgement.

    Being careful about scare campaign accusations.

    In the prime ministerial bedroom with David Rowe. Lots of detail as usual.

    Mark Knight and Turnbull’s long wait for the result.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ac0996bb4f120a0f839c06fd3d3643d5?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    The Australian’s Bill Leak turns on Turnbull.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/238735244474ff8606d3278306d543f3
    And for a bit of fun this is what the Coalition might have seen happen to them.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlI7NcPv1Hs

  46. bk @ #26 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 7:42 am

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I can’t believe that I slept so long last night! My curation of links is about to start. Apologies for my tardiness.

    I can identify with that!
    I slept like a log last night and now feel almost fully recovered from election day. I was aching all over yesterday, particularly the calf muscles from spending so much time standing on hard concrete. All good now except for a mild cold.

    Please let there be no election soon. 😀

  47. In the various hung parliament scenarios, and in the absence of any public deals with independents, Turnbull would continue as caretaker PM until the HOR sits and its confidence in the LNP government can be tested. This flushes out the Indies – yes, no or abstain. Realistically, with 5 indies, to elect a speaker and survive a confidence motion, LNP needs to be on at least 73 seats I think. Katter, McGowan and Sharkie would provide bare minimum support ie, to allow the Government to continue. But there won’t be any deals and the Government could fall at any time should that confidence be withdrawn. It would mean Turnbull would not be able to implement much of a legislative program. It wouldn’t last long. Maybe 12 months then inevitably an election. 75 LNP plus Katter would be needed for a relatively stable LNP government that could run a full term.

  48. I doubt Turnbull has the chutzpah for the 3 years ahead. Even if he does cobble together minority government, he wouldn’t have any power (less even than now), as any X-bencher, Liberal or national member could threaten to cross the floor unless Turnbull dances for his supper (including Abbott). 3 years of Turnbull having to front up and explain that the plebicite has been delayed for no reason, destroying medicare, destroying the CEFC etc will be disastrous for MT. He’s lost power, and he knows it. The only thing left is to salvage what remains of his dignity, and I think the Crossbench supporting Labor is his best chance of that. 10 bucks says he is deliberately throwing the negotiations.

  49. I know so many of you precious petals cannot stand to listen to Fran Kelly so for your benefit, and particularly for the benefit of Mr Barber, Tanya Plibersek made it abundantly clear that there was no way she would challenge Bill Shorten for the leadership and indeed went further by saying she would be amazed if anyone even nominated against him.

  50. Similarly if Labor gets to 73, the reverse scenario would apply – getting to 76 with tacit support from Bandt and Wilkie, and Sharkie (and maybe McGowan) swapping sides. I think in that scenario Labor would have a better chance of implementing its agenda

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