The Australian Electoral Commission is dampening expectations about the progress of the count:
The initial sorting and collation of postal and other declaration votes already received by the AEC will finalise on Monday. The AEC will also check every declaration vote against the electoral roll and other requirements in order to include them to the count. Once this examination process is complete, the counting of declaration votes recently included in the count will begin. This is expected to be on Tuesday. Postal and other declaration votes will continue to be received, sorted and included in the count up until the deadline for receipt on 15 July.
What this amounts to is the AEC taking extra special care to ensure there are no repeats of the Senate fiasco from Western Australia in 2013. Many will grumble about the slow progress, but you can’t have it both ways. So no counting yesterday or today, which I’m personally relieved by as it’s giving me a chance to wrap my head around a complex situation. Here’s how I described it in response to a commenter’s query on the previous thread:
Barring some freaky late count development in a seat currently off my radar, I have the Coalition home in 70 seats, Labor home in 65, others home in five, and ten up in the air (though I haven’t yet absorbed Kevin Bonham’s notion that the Liberals could theoretically win Melbourne Ports, as may the Greens, although a Labor win seems most likely). So they would need to break 8-2 to Labor for them to win more seats than the Coalition (UPDATE: I beg your pardon — make that Coalition 69 and Labor 66, and Labor needing a break of 7-3). Out of the ten, I would, in descending order of degree, rather be in the Coalition’s position in Dunkley, Chisholm, Gilmore and Capricornia, and Labor’s in Herbert, Cowan and Hindmarsh. There are three seats I don’t even care to speculate about:
Flynn, because the LNP would make it home if they did as well on pre-polls and postals as last time, but that was apparently because they did well from fly-in fly-out workers, of which the electorate now has fewer with the end of the mining boom. It’s also possible that Labor has run a stronger postals campaign this time after abandoning the seat as a lost cause in 2013.
Forde, because there looks like being so very little in it.
Grey, because we don’t know enough about the preference flow yet, but the early indications are encouraging for the Liberals.
I’ll have a more detailed paywalled account of the situation in Crikey later today.
The AEC identifies 6 independents in the tally, so who are the five that you consider home and who is still in doubt?
By Independents I meant to say Others. Apologies, it’s quite late / early.
Looking at Boothby and Sturt, do we have any idea which way the Others and Greens preferences are flowing?
I am o/s and have had several reports of Antony’s (justified) ABC frustration concerning lack of knowledge of flows. The AEC always seems caught out when TPP has to change to TCP, and, even then, they seem to be more back-of-an-envelope calculations (cf Grey) this time
walter e plinge @ #1495 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 12:17 am
And considering the Libs lost a number of seats too to Labor and NXT, I wonder if the Nats has considerably more say now (not considering what is going on in the Senate with Nat seats staggered after Libs and the effects if they’re winning less seats there together overall).
diogenes @ #1415 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm (previous thread)
The declaration votes will be prepared and sent to the right counting stations, and also any booth vote counting that was not finished on Saturday night will continue.
I was giving out HTV cards in a school in the more conservative areas of Higgins. It was my first time doing anything like that, and I thought half a day of standing and talking to people was quite a considerable effort, so I have to say kudos to the people where who has been doing it for years and over both pre-polling and polling days!
Unlike the western booth of Higgins (Prahran / Windsor) where the people were much more progressive, the crowd here was more likely to be rusted on Lib. A number of people waltzed in without bothering with HTV cards (an elderly Lib volunteer was hammering on about how people walked in without HTV cards and appeared genuinely concerned about informal voting). Many others seems to be collecting HTV cards from everyone (including the ALA volunteer).
Most of the volunteers were Lib and Green, followed by us 3 from Getup, 2 from NXT (1 of them flew in from Adelaide, and if I’m not mistaken a relative of the local NXT candidate), Marriage Equality, Animal Justice Party and the lone ALA guy. I wasn’t surprised to say that the local councillor I met who ran as “independent” was giving out HTV cards for the Libs.
Kelly O’Dwyer came by in the morning. Her appearance was a slight distraction. She has an appeal to certain types of people there, and I can see why, but I have to admit I don’t quite like her tone to some of the other volunteers there.
Otherwise the experience was an interesting one, and chatting with most of the volunteers, they seem pretty down to earth. Most of the voters were alright to deal with, but there was one or two guys who were rather rude and for some reason seemed to threat non-Lib volunteers with disdain when a simple “no” or ignore would suffice.
I really hope the likes of Carl Katter and Jason Ball would return to Higgins again (I was hoping to see either one but having left after lunch, I wasn’t sure if they did. It was a quiet booth after all). I really feel there’s a chance that O’Dwyer might get chipped down and was hoping to either of the candidates to bring her down. Alas…
Still, it was encouraging to see a significant number of people looking for Labor or Green HTVs only in a pretty much conservative booth. There was even this one older lady who was looking for Animal Justice Party HTVs (their volunteers arrived an hour after the booth open, and were related to the candidate, but otherwise pretty pleasant people to talk to). I was asked about who I represent a number of times and I had to say that we weren’t party members but an independent organisation a number of times.
That being said, generally a fun experience and would definitely do a it again, albeit for much longer and more days.
RE speakership in a minority government
Can’t see Katter or McGowan doing it or Bandt.
I wonder if Wilkie might be interested. Not sure if he wants his voice diminished, but it’ll be interesting.
In fact I can’t realistically see any of the crossbenchers doing it.
I note the false equivalence between the two sides in the article by Massola, Kenny and Dye
The result ‘sparked leadership ructions on both sides with suggestions that the left’s Anthony Albanese could contest the ALP leadership ‘
As I understand it the key thing that was done yesterday was the transport of the ballots from each booth to secure centralised counting centres.
The delay is annoying, especially in a close election but in this situation it is even more important that the count is done correctly
Raa Raa.
McGowan apparently insists that she won’t enter into an agreement with either side as a matter of principle. (What principle, do you ask? I guess it’s the “principle” of wanting to avoid he controversy that engulfed Windsor and Oakeshott).
On that basis, I reckon she should accept the role of speaker if she is offered it.
Blanket Criticism
Monday, July 4, 2016 at 4:17 am
The AEC identifies 6 independents in the tally, so who are the five that you consider home and who is still in doubt?
————–
The 5 ‘others’ we know have won seats are Katter, Wilkie, McGowam, Bandt and the Xenephon candidate in MAY0. Palmer’s seat of Fairfax has gone back to the LNP. NXT are now ahead in Grey. Melbourne Ports is a 3 way fight between Labor-Liberals-Greens but most likely to be a Labor retain.
Andrew Wilkie has ruled out accepting the speakership. http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/03/no-deals-wilkie/
So William, your assessment seems broadly similar to what I assume must be driving the more upbeat assessments form out of the Liberal camp. If you’ve effectively given them Capricornia and still rate them a chance in Flynn, then they’re close to home and hosed.
Oh well, we’ll see (eventually, at glacial speed).
I have a general impression that, when there has been a swing away from the Coalition the postal votes also swing a bit (albeit from a far higher base). On the other hand, there are more and more old people voting postal every election. A and then there’s the possible effect of Mediscare. So it’s very difficult to predict what will happen with pistols.
Thankfully, I can now cease reporting on the crap displayed in the Daily TurdBurgler and SmearStralian. Let’s hope we are all here in 3 years time (or less) and the Turd and Smear have ceased polluting our democracy.
One last image from the Turd, their lead image sums up the election
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9e6299f917a93ca4407673318d3502ea
Ahem, postals.
Amanda Vanstone in full on, high dudgeon in The Age.
“Even under the narrow-loss scenario, Labor will be buoyed by the result. Nonetheless, the vast majority of Labor voters and members who are good and decent people will feel a dark cloud around their hearts. They know that they have won seats on a whopping, great, big, deliberate lie. Frightening and misleading people into thinking that their health cover is about to be chopped is not the stuff of statesmen.There’s no pride in that.”
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/this-is-no-time-to-drag-liberal-party-to-the-right-20160703-gpxgkt.html#ixzz4DNhAOEZF
Oh, the sweet, delicious irony from a party that defined a scare campaign. And the simple failure to acknowledge that in the public’s mind Medicare = the entire health care system. The ALP were absolutely right to point out the relentless Tory charge to transfer responsibility for health from the public to the private, individual sphere. If speaking truth is now a scare campaign then so be it.
meher baba
Monday, July 4, 2016 at 6:47 am
Raa Raa.
McGowan apparently insists that she won’t enter into an agreement with either side as a matter of principle. (What principle, do you ask? I guess it’s the “principle” of wanting to avoid he controversy that engulfed Windsor and Oakeshott).
On that basis, I reckon she should accept the role of speaker if she is offered it.
————–
Wilkie was saying in a presser yesterday he won’t enter into a minority Govt deal with either side either and I can’t see Wilkie, Bandt or McGowan saying yes to the speakers role. Sharkie from NXT would be a disaster and Katter can’t speak English. Na, the Coalition will have to find a speaker from their own ranks and Labor will follow convention and come up with an abstainer.
Keep talking Medicare Libs……bunch of duffas
For shame, Amanda. Have you already forgotten Tony’s lies? A 3 year scare campaign on the Carbon Tax? (And I’m still angry)
I have a general impression that, when there has been a swing away from the Coalition the postal votes also swing a bit (albeit from a far higher base). On the other hand, there are more and more old people voting postal every election. A and then there’s the possible effect of Mediscare. So it’s very difficult to predict what will happen with pistols.
——————-
I think you are dead right . The pre-polls this time appear to broadly consistent with the election day movement away from the Coalition in 2PP terms, except perhaps in Victoria where the Coalition did better and might steal a seat on the postals.
The other thing is that postal votes traditionally favour the Coalition. However, the Mediscare issue will put a dent in that pro Coalition postal edge. Enough to shape some seats outcome and not enough in others- particularly in Victoria IMHO.
Journos relying on their favourite pollie to give them the ‘inside story’ gradually lose their ability to recognise reality. Encouraged by bosses bought by promises of extra dollars, of course.
‘Ms McGowan has also ruled out accepting the speakership, as has Mr Katter.’
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/03/no-deals-wilkie/
I just logged in and didn’t get the ‘too many redirects’ message!
Bloody Liberals complaining about a scare campaign, must think we have the minds of goldfish.
Good Morning
On the so called Mediscare text. Referring to police by LNP. When do we cross the line from legitimate complaint to protect democracy to fascism?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I can’t believe that I slept so long last night! My curation of links is about to start. Apologies for my tardiness.
BK
Hanging in here in Spain for our post before hitting the sac. Thanks again amigos.
BK
Sorry “your” post.
Not paywalled.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-inside-story-of-how-labors-mediscare-plot-was-hatched/news-story/51ee0223bfe1f0922cd6d15f447e692f
KK writes well
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/03/shorten-fought-on-policies-while-turnbull-sat-back-waiting-for-the-people-to-elect-him
We don’t know the result, but we know the outcome: Bill Shorten was barely scratched. Malcolm Turnbull got a spear in his side. Let’s watch and see how fast the blood gushes.
I think the whole minority government is chaos thing has gone out the window.
This because its apparent the circus is going to be the Senate cross bench not the HOR.
So if Labor does end up forming government I don’t think its going to be the hung parliament for forming government that will be the story. Its going to be who can get legislation passed in the Senate.
From the numbers Labor would need the Greens plus 2
The LNP would need 9 out of 10
Imagine we get a 75/70/5 result and the ‘natural’ conservative Bob Katter makes a deal with Talcum Talkbull. We would have a Government held to ransom by a protectionist tool who wants guns in every home in Australia and who got only 56,010 primary votes or 0.5 %. Thanks alot Talcum, you might get what you deserve.
BK
You welcome to the sleep in. All sleep patterns are not their usual for those following the campaign and count.
Glad you got refreshed 🙂
Good Morning BK –
It would be good to see Tony Blair held accountable for his disastrous premiership:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/03/tony-blair-may-face-impeachment-on-release-of-chilcot-report
Morning all. How does a healthy swing and 10+ seat gain mean the Labor party is under seige? Seriously, by this logic Abbott failed in 2010.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-2016-turnbull-and-shorten-have-plenty-to-worry-about/7565704
Likewise, Amanda Vanstone is some way off in her assumptions of my feelings about the Labor campaign. No Amanda it was not a monstrous lie. The union RC, that was a monstrous lie.
This headline is more accurate: “Malcolm Turnbull becomes Julia Gillard”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/federal-election-2016-deja-vu-amid-the-howling-malcolm-turnbull-becomes-julia-gillard-20160703-gpxcg1.html
In fact its worse than that, because Gillard did not lose the Senate as well, and never got rolled in a joint sitting after an ill-advised DD.
latikambourke: Why Bowen and Shorten deserve equal congratulations for Labor’s #Ausvotes result https://t.co/w4KXxrnBg2 https://t.co/YcFPplYbjq
Apologies if already posted. Fairfax Ipsos claims to be closest to the mark.
Fairfax/Ipsos two-party preferred poll closest to election result (so far)
The Australian Financial Review – 14 h ago
The five major national pollsters were within about one percentage point of the two-party preferred result.
http://goo.gl/O0n2Dv
brucehawker2010: No more of this “Mediscare” nonsense. The Liberals walked into a trap of their own making by setting up the Medicare privatisation unit.
mikehilliard @ #24 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 7:37 am
That’s been the underlying principle of Liberal campaigning for years.
ABCthedrum: “Behave like adults! The result isn’t a disaster. Talk to each other. Negotiate. Run the country” @bkjabour #TheDrum https://t.co/p28PU9t8HJ
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/recriminations-begin-abbott-forces-angry-bernardi-warns-of-farright-briggs-blames-bishop-20160703-gpxptx.html#ixzz4DNwpK5p5
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Sounds like to me that McGowan is a seat warmer rather than do something she doesn’t.
Katter also has ruled out accepting any position in the government, but has a long, long list of demands to be met for support on confidence and supply.
He did this yesterday.
[It will be fascinating to watch Tasmanian Jacqui Lambie, re-elected in her own right, and Hanson compete for who can make the most incendiary comments on Islam]
Fascinating not, Latika should have more sense.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/recriminations-begin-abbott-forces-angry-bernardi-warns-of-farright-briggs-blames-bishop-20160703-gpxptx.html#ixzz4DNzWpJhp
Can anyone imagine Bob Katter as Speaker? The mind boggles.
@Lizzie he would bring his guns and shoot MPs under section 53A or whatver it was. LNP fav.
mpesce: “It’s a terrible result for the government” says @AntonyGreenABC
Antony Green seems to agree with the poison chalice argument for the Labor party