State of confusion: day two

An extra cautious Australian Electoral Commission will not resume counting until tomorrow, allowing a helpful breather for those of us trying to keep on top of the situation.

The Australian Electoral Commission is dampening expectations about the progress of the count:

The initial sorting and collation of postal and other declaration votes already received by the AEC will finalise on Monday. The AEC will also check every declaration vote against the electoral roll and other requirements in order to include them to the count. Once this examination process is complete, the counting of declaration votes recently included in the count will begin. This is expected to be on Tuesday. Postal and other declaration votes will continue to be received, sorted and included in the count up until the deadline for receipt on 15 July.

What this amounts to is the AEC taking extra special care to ensure there are no repeats of the Senate fiasco from Western Australia in 2013. Many will grumble about the slow progress, but you can’t have it both ways. So no counting yesterday or today, which I’m personally relieved by as it’s giving me a chance to wrap my head around a complex situation. Here’s how I described it in response to a commenter’s query on the previous thread:

Barring some freaky late count development in a seat currently off my radar, I have the Coalition home in 70 seats, Labor home in 65, others home in five, and ten up in the air (though I haven’t yet absorbed Kevin Bonham’s notion that the Liberals could theoretically win Melbourne Ports, as may the Greens, although a Labor win seems most likely). So they would need to break 8-2 to Labor for them to win more seats than the Coalition (UPDATE: I beg your pardon — make that Coalition 69 and Labor 66, and Labor needing a break of 7-3). Out of the ten, I would, in descending order of degree, rather be in the Coalition’s position in Dunkley, Chisholm, Gilmore and Capricornia, and Labor’s in Herbert, Cowan and Hindmarsh. There are three seats I don’t even care to speculate about:

Flynn, because the LNP would make it home if they did as well on pre-polls and postals as last time, but that was apparently because they did well from fly-in fly-out workers, of which the electorate now has fewer with the end of the mining boom. It’s also possible that Labor has run a stronger postals campaign this time after abandoning the seat as a lost cause in 2013.

Forde, because there looks like being so very little in it.

Grey, because we don’t know enough about the preference flow yet, but the early indications are encouraging for the Liberals.

I’ll have a more detailed paywalled account of the situation in Crikey later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,294 comments on “State of confusion: day two”

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  1. The AEC identifies 6 independents in the tally, so who are the five that you consider home and who is still in doubt?

  3. Looking at Boothby and Sturt, do we have any idea which way the Others and Greens preferences are flowing?
    I am o/s and have had several reports of Antony’s (justified) ABC frustration concerning lack of knowledge of flows. The AEC always seems caught out when TPP has to change to TCP, and, even then, they seem to be more back-of-an-envelope calculations (cf Grey) this time

  4. walter e plinge @ #1495 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 12:17 am

    As the Nationals won a seat off the Liberals do they get an extra seat in cabinet?

    And considering the Libs lost a number of seats too to Labor and NXT, I wonder if the Nats has considerably more say now (not considering what is going on in the Senate with Nat seats staggered after Libs and the effects if they’re winning less seats there together overall).

  5. diogenes @ #1415 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm (previous thread)

    Why is there no counting tomorrow?

    The declaration votes will be prepared and sent to the right counting stations, and also any booth vote counting that was not finished on Saturday night will continue.

  6. I was giving out HTV cards in a school in the more conservative areas of Higgins. It was my first time doing anything like that, and I thought half a day of standing and talking to people was quite a considerable effort, so I have to say kudos to the people where who has been doing it for years and over both pre-polling and polling days!

    Unlike the western booth of Higgins (Prahran / Windsor) where the people were much more progressive, the crowd here was more likely to be rusted on Lib. A number of people waltzed in without bothering with HTV cards (an elderly Lib volunteer was hammering on about how people walked in without HTV cards and appeared genuinely concerned about informal voting). Many others seems to be collecting HTV cards from everyone (including the ALA volunteer).

    Most of the volunteers were Lib and Green, followed by us 3 from Getup, 2 from NXT (1 of them flew in from Adelaide, and if I’m not mistaken a relative of the local NXT candidate), Marriage Equality, Animal Justice Party and the lone ALA guy. I wasn’t surprised to say that the local councillor I met who ran as “independent” was giving out HTV cards for the Libs.

    Kelly O’Dwyer came by in the morning. Her appearance was a slight distraction. She has an appeal to certain types of people there, and I can see why, but I have to admit I don’t quite like her tone to some of the other volunteers there.

    Otherwise the experience was an interesting one, and chatting with most of the volunteers, they seem pretty down to earth. Most of the voters were alright to deal with, but there was one or two guys who were rather rude and for some reason seemed to threat non-Lib volunteers with disdain when a simple “no” or ignore would suffice.

    I really hope the likes of Carl Katter and Jason Ball would return to Higgins again (I was hoping to see either one but having left after lunch, I wasn’t sure if they did. It was a quiet booth after all). I really feel there’s a chance that O’Dwyer might get chipped down and was hoping to either of the candidates to bring her down. Alas…

    Still, it was encouraging to see a significant number of people looking for Labor or Green HTVs only in a pretty much conservative booth. There was even this one older lady who was looking for Animal Justice Party HTVs (their volunteers arrived an hour after the booth open, and were related to the candidate, but otherwise pretty pleasant people to talk to). I was asked about who I represent a number of times and I had to say that we weren’t party members but an independent organisation a number of times.

    That being said, generally a fun experience and would definitely do a it again, albeit for much longer and more days.

  7. RE speakership in a minority government

    Can’t see Katter or McGowan doing it or Bandt.

    I wonder if Wilkie might be interested. Not sure if he wants his voice diminished, but it’ll be interesting.

    In fact I can’t realistically see any of the crossbenchers doing it.

  8. I note the false equivalence between the two sides in the article by Massola, Kenny and Dye
    The result ‘sparked leadership ructions on both sides with suggestions that the left’s Anthony Albanese could contest the ALP leadership ‘

  9. As I understand it the key thing that was done yesterday was the transport of the ballots from each booth to secure centralised counting centres.
    The delay is annoying, especially in a close election but in this situation it is even more important that the count is done correctly

  10. Raa Raa.

    McGowan apparently insists that she won’t enter into an agreement with either side as a matter of principle. (What principle, do you ask? I guess it’s the “principle” of wanting to avoid he controversy that engulfed Windsor and Oakeshott).

    On that basis, I reckon she should accept the role of speaker if she is offered it.

  11. Blanket Criticism
    Monday, July 4, 2016 at 4:17 am

    The AEC identifies 6 independents in the tally, so who are the five that you consider home and who is still in doubt?
    ————–
    The 5 ‘others’ we know have won seats are Katter, Wilkie, McGowam, Bandt and the Xenephon candidate in MAY0. Palmer’s seat of Fairfax has gone back to the LNP. NXT are now ahead in Grey. Melbourne Ports is a 3 way fight between Labor-Liberals-Greens but most likely to be a Labor retain.

  13. So William, your assessment seems broadly similar to what I assume must be driving the more upbeat assessments form out of the Liberal camp. If you’ve effectively given them Capricornia and still rate them a chance in Flynn, then they’re close to home and hosed.

    Oh well, we’ll see (eventually, at glacial speed).

    I have a general impression that, when there has been a swing away from the Coalition the postal votes also swing a bit (albeit from a far higher base). On the other hand, there are more and more old people voting postal every election. A and then there’s the possible effect of Mediscare. So it’s very difficult to predict what will happen with pistols.

  16. Amanda Vanstone in full on, high dudgeon in The Age.

    “Even under the narrow-loss scenario, Labor will be buoyed by the result. Nonetheless, the vast majority of Labor voters and members who are good and decent people will feel a dark cloud around their hearts. They know that they have won seats on a whopping, great, big, deliberate lie. Frightening and misleading people into thinking that their health cover is about to be chopped is not the stuff of statesmen.There’s no pride in that.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/this-is-no-time-to-drag-liberal-party-to-the-right-20160703-gpxgkt.html#ixzz4DNhAOEZF

    Oh, the sweet, delicious irony from a party that defined a scare campaign. And the simple failure to acknowledge that in the public’s mind Medicare = the entire health care system. The ALP were absolutely right to point out the relentless Tory charge to transfer responsibility for health from the public to the private, individual sphere. If speaking truth is now a scare campaign then so be it.

  17. meher baba
    Monday, July 4, 2016 at 6:47 am

    Raa Raa.

    McGowan apparently insists that she won’t enter into an agreement with either side as a matter of principle. (What principle, do you ask? I guess it’s the “principle” of wanting to avoid he controversy that engulfed Windsor and Oakeshott).

    On that basis, I reckon she should accept the role of speaker if she is offered it.
    ————–
    Wilkie was saying in a presser yesterday he won’t enter into a minority Govt deal with either side either and I can’t see Wilkie, Bandt or McGowan saying yes to the speakers role. Sharkie from NXT would be a disaster and Katter can’t speak English. Na, the Coalition will have to find a speaker from their own ranks and Labor will follow convention and come up with an abstainer.

  19. a whopping, great, big, deliberate lie.

    For shame, Amanda. Have you already forgotten Tony’s lies? A 3 year scare campaign on the Carbon Tax? (And I’m still angry)

  20. I have a general impression that, when there has been a swing away from the Coalition the postal votes also swing a bit (albeit from a far higher base). On the other hand, there are more and more old people voting postal every election. A and then there’s the possible effect of Mediscare. So it’s very difficult to predict what will happen with pistols.

    ——————-
    I think you are dead right . The pre-polls this time appear to broadly consistent with the election day movement away from the Coalition in 2PP terms, except perhaps in Victoria where the Coalition did better and might steal a seat on the postals.

    The other thing is that postal votes traditionally favour the Coalition. However, the Mediscare issue will put a dent in that pro Coalition postal edge. Enough to shape some seats outcome and not enough in others- particularly in Victoria IMHO.

  21. Mr Denmore
    ‏@MrDenmore
    Oh, how sweet it is to watch smart-arse journalists change their story according to reality they never managed to grasp #ausvotes

    Journos relying on their favourite pollie to give them the ‘inside story’ gradually lose their ability to recognise reality. Encouraged by bosses bought by promises of extra dollars, of course.

  25. Good Morning

    On the so called Mediscare text. Referring to police by LNP. When do we cross the line from legitimate complaint to protect democracy to fascism?

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I can’t believe that I slept so long last night! My curation of links is about to start. Apologies for my tardiness.

  29. The Medicare campaign was based on a projection from a premise: that because the government was outsourcing a small corner of Medicare, the whole lot could go. So far as Wright was concerned, this tapped a core weakness of the Coalition: that it did not support Medicare, or that it supported it only grudgingly while looking for ways around it. This was the fear to leverage.

    The Hawke ad was launched on YouTube on June 11 and on TV on June 12. It ran as free as a rabbit in a field for nearly a week. “You don’t set up a Medicare privatisation taskforce unless you aim to privatise Medicare,” Hawke told viewers.

    By June 16, fast-rising anxiety had gripped Victorian Liberal officials. Voters in marginal seats were responding to Hawke — and older voters, who pinned health as their top item, were raising concerns about Turnbull’s plans to privatise Medicare. Told it was not true, these voters still thought it sounded right. Turnbull had no such plans. But it was too late. The Hawke ad had bitten deeply.

    The party’s activist Victorian president Michael Kroger and his state deputy, Simon Frost, decided to push Coalition campaign headquarters to act — they needed a ­rebuttal and it had to be fast. Some of the state directors were already concerned about whether the campaign was too lifeless, with its clinical jobs and growth message. Labor’s Medicare ad was biting in Victoria.

    Not paywalled.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-inside-story-of-how-labors-mediscare-plot-was-hatched/news-story/51ee0223bfe1f0922cd6d15f447e692f

  31. I think the whole minority government is chaos thing has gone out the window.

    This because its apparent the circus is going to be the Senate cross bench not the HOR.

    So if Labor does end up forming government I don’t think its going to be the hung parliament for forming government that will be the story. Its going to be who can get legislation passed in the Senate.

    From the numbers Labor would need the Greens plus 2
    The LNP would need 9 out of 10

  32. Imagine we get a 75/70/5 result and the ‘natural’ conservative Bob Katter makes a deal with Talcum Talkbull. We would have a Government held to ransom by a protectionist tool who wants guns in every home in Australia and who got only 56,010 primary votes or 0.5 %. Thanks alot Talcum, you might get what you deserve.

  33. BK

    You welcome to the sleep in. All sleep patterns are not their usual for those following the campaign and count.

    Glad you got refreshed 🙂

  35. It would be good to see Tony Blair held accountable for his disastrous premiership:

    A number of MPs led by Alex Salmond are expected to use an ancient law to try to impeach the former prime minister when the Chilcot report comes out on Wednesday.

    … Salmond, the former Scottish first minister, said there “has to be a judicial or political reckoning” for Blair’s role in the Iraq conflict. “He seemed puzzled as to why Jeremy Corbyn thinks he is a war criminal, why people don’t like him,” he told Sky News.

    “The reason is 179 British war dead, 150,000 immediate dead from the Iraq conflict, the Middle East in flames, the world faced with an existential crisis on terrorism – these are just some of the reasons perhaps he should understand why people don’t hold him in the highest regard.

    “[MPs] believe you cannot have a situation where this country blunders into an illegal war with the appalling consequences and at the end of the day there isn’t a reckoning. There has to be a judicial or political reckoning for that.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/03/tony-blair-may-face-impeachment-on-release-of-chilcot-report

  39. Apologies if already posted. Fairfax Ipsos claims to be closest to the mark.

    Fairfax/Ipsos two-party preferred poll closest to election result (so far)
    The Australian Financial Review – 14 h ago
    The five major national pollsters were within about one percentage point of the two-party preferred result.
    http://goo.gl/O0n2Dv

  40. brucehawker2010: No more of this “Mediscare” nonsense. The Liberals walked into a trap of their own making by setting up the Medicare privatisation unit.

  43. Labor’s success is a vindication of Bowen’s strategy and policy positioning – imagine if he could have been allowed to take the final steps needed to beat the Coalition on the budget numbers.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/recriminations-begin-abbott-forces-angry-bernardi-warns-of-farright-briggs-blames-bishop-20160703-gpxptx.html#ixzz4DNwpK5p5
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  45. Katter also has ruled out accepting any position in the government, but has a long, long list of demands to be met for support on confidence and supply.
    He did this yesterday.

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