UPDATE: Essential Research has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. One of many questions on the budget records 20% approval overall and 29% disapproval, with 35% for neither and 15% for don’t know. All the others, together with questions on detention centres, can be seen on the full release. We also have a poll today in The Guardian for Lonergan, conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1841, which reaches 50-50 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%.
In response to Radio National Drive host Patricia Karvelas’s desire to refer to yesterday as day one of the election campaign, a listener helpfully offered that the actual day of the announcement, Sunday, might be deemed “day zero”. That works for me, so there’s your headline. However you care to number it, here are some highlights:
• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Liberal Party internal poll derived from “15-minute interviews with 600 people on April 30 and May 1” recorded a dead heat on two-party preferred in the new electorate of Burt in southern Perth. The report also cites optimism from Liberal insiders about Cowan and Hasluck, where “the advantage of incumbency and strong local campaigns” are expected to make the difference.
• In other internal polling news, Mark Riley of Seven News reported on Thursday that Liberal polling conducted on April 29 showed the party trailing 53.1-46.9 in Eden-Monaro, but leading 50.3-49.7 in Reid, 50.9-49.1 in Banks, 50.2-49.8 in Gilmore, 51.6-48.5 in Bennelong, 51.2-48.8 in Lindsay and 58.8-41.2 in Hughes, with Barnaby Joyce holding a 53.1-46.9 lead over Tony Windsor in New England. The report copped a more than usually vehement response from Liberal pollster Mark Textor, who denied any such polling had been conducted by his own firm, Crosby Textor. Riley said in his report that the polling was “delivered to New South Wales Liberal executives by campaign guru Lynton Crosby yesterday and leaked to Seven News”, to which Textor retorted that Crosby was out of the country. Riley responded that he had “at no stage said it was your polling”, and insisted it had been distributed to prominent members of the party. In his report the following evening, Riley said “Liberal-National director Tony Nutt said it wasn’t commissioned by the party and rejected the numbers”.
• Ellen Whinnett of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals are “on the brink” of a deal in which they will direct preferences to the Greens in Batman and Wills, while the Greens run open tickets in marginal seats in the Melbourne suburbs. The former half of the bargain returns to the Liberals’ usual practice before 2013, but for the Greens to fail to direct preferences in marginal seats is a little more unusual. However, the impact of the former will be far the greater. When the Liberals flipped their preference recommendation in 2013, the Greens’ share of their preferences in the Melbourne electorate slumped from 80.0% to 33.7%. This would have gouged about 10% of Adam Bandt’s two-party vote against Labor, but the improvment of his position on the primary vote was sufficient to exactly cancel it out. In Batman and Wills, the Greens’ share of Liberal preferences in 2013 was 32.6% and 28.7% respectively. If that changed to 80% with no alteration to the primary vote, David Feeney’s 10.6% winning margin over Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, who opposes him again this time, would reduce to zero, while Labor would hold on to a 3.5% margin in Wills. By contrast, the Greens running an open ticket appears to reduce Labor’s share of their preferences by only 3%. The Greens vote in Labor’s Victorian targets of Deakin, La Trobe and Corangamite was in each case a fraction above 10%, so the difference is likely to be 0.3% to 0.4%.
• Crikey founder and shareholder activist Stephen Mayne has announced he is running against Kevin Andrews as “a pro-Turnbull, liberal-minded independent” in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies. Andrews is currently embroiled in a branch-stacking scandal that has resulted in the resignation of his electorate officer, Ananija Ananievski, involving elderly Macedonian immigrants who were reportedly unaware of their party membership. In an article in Crikey yesterday (paywalled), Mayne wrote that Georgina Downer, a lawyer, former diplomat and daughter of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, was “hoping Kevin Andrews is removed and she can be slotted in as a last-minute replacement before nominations close on June 1”. Downer was an unsuccessful candidate for the recent preselection to succeed Andrew Robb in the seat of Goldstein, which was won by former Human Rights Commissioner Tim Wilson.
• Liberal MP Dennis Jensen, who was disendorsed as the party’s candidate for his Perth seat of Tangney in favour of former party state director Ben Morton, announced yesterday he would run in the seat as an independent. He declined to resign from the Liberal Party in doing so, but state director Andrew Cox said yesterday that he had cancelled his membership in announcing his intention to run against an endorsed candidate of the party. Jensen foreshadowed yesterday’s actions in a speech to parliament last week, in which he called Morton “the Liberal branch stackers’ and powerbrokers’ candidate”, criticised the government’s record on tax reform, called for a royal commission into the banks, and spruiked himself as “a candidate who has deep Liberal values, but who will fight for constituents first and foremost; a free thinker who will be their voice in parliament without fear or favour”. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian noted a fortnight ago that running at the election would mean Jensen continued to draw a salary up until the day before the election, which would earn him around $35,000.
• The state council of the Liberal Party in Western Australia determined the order of the double dissolution Senate ticket on the weekend, and delivered a defeat to former Defence Minister David Johnston by relegating him to the highly loseable sixth position on the ticket. The order of the ticket will run Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Dean Smith, Linda Reynolds, Chris Back, David Johnston. All are incumbents, reflecting the party’s consistent success in winning three seats at half-Senate elections, and the difficulty it faces accommodating all of them at a double dissolution election that is more likely to net them only five. Many in the party had hoped that Johnston, who was dumped as Defence Minister in December 2014, would lighten the burden by retiring, but he failed to oblige. Johnston was more gracious in the face of disappointment than some, conceding he was “in the twilight of my career”, and telling the ABC: “The Liberal Party has been very, very good to me and I’ve had 14 years in Parliament which has been a fabulous adventure.” The state council’s decision reportedly ran ran contrary to the recommendation of its four-person selection committee, which proposed that Johnston take fourth place and Back take sixth. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports one of the members of the selection committee, party state president Norman Moore, stormed out of a state executive meeting last week and threatened to resign as it became apparent the recommendation would not be supported, before apologising for what he conceded was a “dummy spit”.
• Mark Coultan of The Australian (paywalled, I’m guessing) reports that the Liberal member for Barton, Nick Varvaris, has finally decided after much prevarication that he will seek re-election in the seat he won from Labor in 2013. Varvaris has been poleaxed by the latest redistribution, which has turned his 0.3% margin into a notional Labor margin of 5.2% by adding territory around Marrickville. Mark Coultan also reports the Liberals are still yet to endorse candidates in the competitive seats of Paterson and Kingsford Smith, but are likely to do so this weekend.
• Jared Owens of The Australian has a useful article (probably paywalled) on the state of the parties’ double dissolution Senate tickets. While many remain to be finalised, Coalition tickets are now set in Victoria (incumbents Mitch Fifield, Scott Ryan, James Paterson and Bridget McKenzie, followed by newcomer Jane Hume, who recently suffered a surprise defeat to Paterson in her bid to fill Michael Ronaldson’s vacancy), Queensland (Ian Macdonald, George Brandis, Matt Canavan, James McGrath, Barry O’Sullivan and Joanna Lindgren, all of whom are incumbents) and South Australia (Simon Birmingham, Cory Bernardi, Anne Ruston, David Fawcett and Sean Edwards, all incumbents). Labor’s ticket in Queensland will be headed by two newcomers in former state MP Murray Watt and former party state secretary Anthony Chisholm, who are repectively of the Left and the Right. Behind them are incumbents Claire Moore and Chris Ketter, with another newcomer in Jane Casey in fifth place.
Stay tuned for the regular Tuesday poll release early this afternoon from Essential Research, which will probably be followed by a bit of a lull after the weekend storm. A full update of BludgerTrack, incorporating the latest state breakdowns, should follow a few hours after.
S777
Worse. See Bluey Bulletin.
Just switched off 7:30. More sideshow. Nothing of substance. Crap.
asha leu @ #608 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 6:33 pm
I thought I heard Bill Shorten on ABC radio this afternoon say (or was quoted) that he would not accept Green support in a hung parliament.
Can anyone confirm?
Bowen:
Labor government alone – or not at all.
Smart move. If there is a hung Parliament, it will be because all the momentum is with Labor. If they step back and let the Liberals form government rather than getting in bed with the Greens, the Coalition will fall apart and any subsequent election will see them swept away.
There is nothing for Labor in even slightly indicating getting in bed with the Greens – however described.
He said ‘they’re dreaming’. As we know from The Castle, that formulation does not rule out the prospect. As you can see from my post at 7:41 I think at some stage they need to rule it out because they can safely do so.
Mr Shorten can say what he likes. Mr Bowen can say what he likes. There are three points here:
1. While they are saying that they are reminding everyone of the much-hated Gillard/Greens duumvirate.
2. They are not talking positively about something else.
3. They are sounding defensive.
All three points are to the direct political benefit of the Greens and the Liberals, the frackers and the Reef Wreckers.
Now, remind me why Bandt and Di Natale would want to be in political lock step with the Liberals in trying to damage Labor’s prospects of forming government.
compact crank @ #602 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 6:29 pm
Mass bread browner?
If there is a hung parliament Labor should immediately inform the GG that they have no clear prospect of forming government. The GG would then be forced to go to the Liberals. The Liberals would then form government with the Greens support. Alternatively, the Greens could withhold support from the Liberals, forcing a new election.
If they did that they would almost certainly be exposed for what they are: wreckers, and be slaughtered in the following election.
Bw
Duterte is definitely a nutter.
Last week he said that Australia should have stopped Chinese aggression in the South China Sea!
I tried to listen to the various formulations but the clearest is that Labor would not form a Coalition with the Greens. My understanding in the Australian context is that this means that there would not be a formal sharing of government, including of ministerial positions for Greens.
The Greens would be left with the prospect of voting confidence in a Labor Government, supporting a minority Liberal Government, or forcing an immediate re-election.
Greens: always the wreckers, never the bride.
CTaR1
Yep. This is an extremely dangerous development, IMO.
Re AB @7:34PM: a counter to scare campaigns on asylum seekers would be to ask the punters whether a re-elected Coaltion Government’s plans for the country are an acceptable price to keep the boats stopped. Crush your kids and grand kids with debt to pay for higher education. Sacrifice Medicare. Sacrifice unemployment benefits and disability pensions (could they sustain themselves through extended periods of illness, disability or unemployment?)
Labor can’t say this. They have to keep schtum on the whole issue for 8 weeks. They can’t achieve anything from Opposition.
Maybe the Greens can help themselves and Labor by pushing this message.
I hope the toaster contributes to Turnbull being toast.
TPOF @7.41pm
You’d rather see the Liberals in power for another 3 years, destroying the NBN beyond repair than Labor form a coalition with the Greens? Weren’t you also saying that it was good to get rid of Abbott for the sake of the country despite it making it harder for Labor to win? I’d have gladly accepted Abbott for another year if it meant a certain Labor win. Now he’s gone, a coalition with the Greens is a distinct possibility and that’s got to be better than keeping the Liberals and their cuts to my pension.
Machinery to be operated by government paid intern?
Tom.
Re BW @7:49PM: alternatively, it could be left until Parliament resumes and Labor could move a motion of No Confidence and see how it goes from there.
It is interesting that noone seems to be asking Malcolm if he’d form government with the help of the Greens.
Boerwar
Bluey has a competitor! The Pig of Truth:
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31555637/federal-election-2016-the-countdown-begins/
Cud Chewer
No, that’s not what the electorate is looking for, or will accept. Labor is right – they have to rule in their own right, especially if they have to rule as a minority government. No coalition, no deals. If the Greens choose to support them, then fine. If not, then the Greens will have to live with the consequences.
I think Labor was lucky (or was it planned?) that they got to face this issue down so early in the campaign. The Greens now need to get over it and try and win seats in their own right, and not keep trying to slide in to government on Labor’s coat tails.
What time did bluey post?
The economy is saved; someone brought a toaster.
Just for the record, Di Natale was interviewed by Tom Elliott on 3aw this afternoon and stated that the Greens will not be preferencing the Liberals “in any seat in Australia” during this election.
He also said that he could not see the Greens ever being part of a minority government with the Liberals because their policies are pretty much the opposite of everything the Greens stand for.
What is all this talk of a toaster?
frednk:
Bluey is on the previous page.
This toaster business really is a nonsense. If Ms O’Dwyer’s cafe proprietor can really expand his business by, say, 25 extra covers on a Saturday and Sunday morning, simply by acquiring a shmick conveyor toaster, he should simply roll up to Goldsteins, or CafeIdeas and load one into the boot. A bit heavy at around 50kg, so he should bring a mate, or perhaps Kelly will help. They will sign him up to a 3 year lease deal, with a 25% residual, at a truly scary $32.00 a week for his $6,000 toaster. Lease payments fully tax deductible.
Now, his 25 extra covers each day will bring him in, say, at a conservative $20 a cover, an extra $1000 gross, which should be, if he is pricing normally, around $650 a week extra margin. That should cover the $32 for the toaster, just maybe. He might need another $4 an hour intern, though, and the extra power to run it might cost him $3 a week.
The entire point is that fiddling with accelerated depreciation in a business like a cafe is just bullshit. If that is the critical factor in a decision, then it is, without any doubt, a very questionable decision.
frednk
7.36
C
Bluey says pig’s arse to cheap competitors.
C
O’Dwyer did a little story on Q&A last night which involved the wonders of a business person being able to grow the business by buying a $6000 toaster as a consequence of the wonderful things that the Turnbull Government would do if only they were elected.
It has generated a significant amount of ridicule. Bluey assumes that some private school preppy put the words into O’Dwyer’s mouth.
S777
Yep.
Cud @ 7.52
No, I wouldn’t. My whole point is that the Libs could not possibly hold themselves together for 3 months, let alone 3 years. Bearing in mind how many seats they would have lost, and how many previously safe seats had become marginal, they are almost certainly (even more certain than 97% of scientists being right about climate change) going to fall to pieces. The GG would then invite Labor to form government and, failing that, call a new HofR election, which Labor will win well.
Personally, I think there will not be a hung parliament. As happened in the UK the swinging voters will be spooked into going with the leading party in order to avoid a hung Parliament. I also think that the polls will start to move Labor’s way in the next week after the Shorten-Turnbull public debate. I have never seen a greater distinction between the public presence of two party leaders than I have between Shorten and Turnbull. Turnbull and his party are toast. The good news for the PM is that he can afford a $6k machine to toast himself and his party in.
Boerwar
Speaking of which…………..
Lorde de Voterati
32m32 minutes ago
Lorde de Voterati @OzEquitist
@nicknamesnuts @smea8478 @sam_fawcett
Wow, $2,240 raised in 3hrs. I’m speechless!
#IStandWithDuncan #QandA #AUSpol
Embedded image
Nick Names Nuts
4h4 hours ago
Nick Names Nuts @nicknamesnuts
So @sam_fawcett and I were chatting. We wanna raise money for Duncan. To buy a toaster.
Aiming for 6 grand.
https://gofund.me/23hcwd8
Thanks; I look forward to bluey’s insight.
Speaking of pensions, I read today that Australia spends 5.2% of GDP on pensions compared to the average 8.4% of OECD countries. So despite all the rhetoric of this government, it looks like our pensioners are being dudded, even without any cuts.
This is a pretty serious development. The region is tense and if a President who does “force first” is in charge it could get messy at short notice. I’d be keeping an eye on things around Scarborough Shoal in the near future.
Hopefully we dont get this idiot AND Trump.
V
Nice.
Boerwar:
Ta. Might have known it was a Liberal party brain snap. They simply cannot do common sense business practice.
The Bolt Report
39m39 minutes ago
The Bolt Report @theboltreport
Michael Kroger makes the case for preference deals with the Greens #theboltreport http://snpy.tv/27a3u5t
i, CTaR1
Duterte has already sort of resiled by stating that he wants some sort of multilateral regional meeting to discuss the territorial disputes.
I assume that the americans have got to him and told him not to be too silly.
The Chinese would not be attending.
Erudite as always, our Bluey!
Yabba88
Vodoo economics is also a nonsense. As I am sure you know; you can deal wit your profit if you so chose by investing in your business. Lowering taxes makes it easier to take the money out; it does not give you more to grow the business.
Poor Michael Kroger; now they need the votes he has to crab crawl away from “put the greens last.”
Kroger is being clever. He knows that any discussion about Greens preferences steals oxygen from Labor.
Bw / Imacca
I watched his press conference and wondered why he wasn’t asked ‘why didn’t the Philippines stop them?.
Full on nutter.
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has told ABC’s 7.30 that Labor will not be entering into any deals with the Greens if the party does not have the numbers outright to win the election.
“There’s no deals with the Greens. No Coalition agreement with the Greens. The Labor Party’s view is we govern alone. That’s the case. That’s what Bill has articulated today very clearly. If you want a progressive government, vote Labor.
“We intend to win as many seats as we can and to form government in our own right if it may happen.”
Only if people fall for the con that the Greens and the Liberals are doing some sort of deal. The Greens are not smart enough to protect themselves; but that is another issue.
Absolutely correct.
The G’s deserve a large share of the credit for enabling the officially organised depravities that pass for policy in relation to asylum seekers. Of course, anytime the G’s invoke the spectre of a Parliamentary deal with Labor, Labor lose primaries to the LNP. This is exactly what the G’s intend, hoping this will provide them with tactical advantages in the run to the polls.
Labor have exactly the right approach. If voters want a change of Government they can secure it by voting Labor. It’s a simple enough choice. The corollary is the G’s may form a subordinate part of the Opposition, which is actually what they are.
David Pope, with the Agile and Innovative Duo:
Frdnk
‘Only if people fall for the con that the Greens and the Liberals are doing some sort of deal. ‘
This is not about Greens and Labor voters. This is about swinging voters who might be tempted to vote for Labor but who would not do so if they thought there might be a Coalition between Labor and the Greens. Further, the Liberals have fun with this because any suggestion that Labor and the Greens are the same is damaging for Labor.
Labor therefore has to spend energy explaining to potential swinging voters from the right that it is not the same as the Greens and it has to spend energy and resources to potential voters from the left that it is not the same as the Liberals.
This dynamic suits the Liberals fine. It suits the Greens fine.
But the net result is that it improves the likelihood that we will get a Liberal government.
Millennial
😆