It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy

The official start of the election campaign has been marked by three new polls confirming the impression of a very tight race.

As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:

• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.

• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.

• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.

I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.

bludgertrack-2016-05-09b

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,094 comments on “It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy”

Comments Page 3 of 22
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  1. Albert Ross and Cud Chewer
    you don’t have to stop at 12 below the line so you can choose your preferred candidates first and the then go for some neutral candidate that have a chance I will be numbering to a minimum of 20

  2. I have heard people talking about a “Shorten Labor Government” — looks like he has a real chance… Who would have thought in 2013!

  4. [Oh god — and I didn’t think his ego could get any bigger!]
    You could just post ‘I’m a racist’.

  5. DL @ 12.07

    Darren Laver
    #96 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 12:07 am

    “Hung parliaments” are often over predicted.

    I think that this time round swinging voters will follow the trend to avoid a hung Parliament. As they did in the recent UK election. If Labor appear to be edging ahead, that will build momentum for Labor. If the other way round (which I think is unlikely because Turnbull and co are so incompetent at politics as well as policy) that voters will pile on in that direction.

    Either way, it won’t be super close this time.

  7. Labor just has to point out the barrel of money the will save by not giving $50 billion to the rich and how much the Abbott/Turnbull government increased debt by since the came to power.

  11. [And sure enough, Darren hates everyone in the media. It would be a bit patronising of him to make an exception for Waleed Aly.]
    Patronsing probably but still the lesser of two evils surely?

  12. Good Morning
    IH8SHOKJOKS: Alan Jones says there’ll be polls everywhere. Govt hasn’t had any bounce from budget. There are people in Lib party shaking their heads

  13. IH8SHOKJOKS: Alan Jones says Polls are stuck for Liberals. Turnbull has blundered & dithered for 7months & has opened door to Labor

  15. IH8SHOKJOKS: Alan Jones says Turnbull told an untruth on tax take. Turnbull doesn’t know his own detail.
    IH8SHOKJOKS: Alan Jones says his phone ran white hot over weekend when Turnbull had a former green candidate appointed to his office
    IH8SHOKJOKS: Alan Jones says election will be a battle

    Mr Turnbull not of to a good start with getting the right wing commentary on side. Mr Jones broadcasts are listened to mainly in NSW and Queensland so his voice like it or not (I don’t like it) has influence.

  16. G’day Bludgers.

    I’ve had a crack at the Voting Compass and came our where I’d expect: between Lib and Lab on most issues other than the environment, where I’m out there with the Greens.
    The election will be interesting.
    I think the Government helped themselves a fair bit with the Budget: apart from the unnecessarily complex superannuation changes (Labor’s policies are much better here) it was basically a budget targeted at the Liberal base plus aspirational swinging voters.
    Now there will be pressure on Labor to exapand its target audience of voters Yes, they have made it pretty clear that they want to do a lot more than the Libs for anyone who is wholly or largely dependent on the public purse.

    But what about wage-earners and, in particular, aspirational swinging voters? I can’t see a lot in Labor’s policy package that will appeal to this group, other than potential negatives on the taxation side?
    Perhaps I’ll be proven wrong this time, but I reckon Labor always greatly diminished its electoral appeal when it focuses too much on fairness and social justice. It’s important to remember that a very big group of older low-income people who are dependent on government largesse are rusted-on Liberal voters, so Labor gains nothing politically by helping them. Hawke and Keating consistently targeted the aspirationals, and that served them well.

    Maybe Labor can get there on the basis of how incompetent and chaotic Turnbull and the Libs appear to be. My gut feeling is that, with Abbott no longer at the helm, they don’t seem quite incompetent enough to be certain losers.

    So, like the betting markets, I’m currently expecting a Coalition win: potentially quite an easy one.

    The only thing that could change that is a fifth column attack from Abbott and the delcons. The long campaign will increase the risk of this happening, but I’m predicting this will be minor.
    Happy to be proven wrong: if I am, feel free to have a go at me.

  20. What a joke! Turnbull exclaiming that people have to vote for the Coalition if they want Australia to transition to the New Economy!?!

    Who broke the biggest tool in the ‘New Economy’ toolbox, the FTTP NBN!?!

    Whose great idea that goes ‘Boom!’ is it that Australia should become a servile Services Economy, and anyway, even if we do is standing idly by while Climate Change wreaks havoc on the Tourism Industry!?!

    Who lets the Mining Industry destroy our prime Agricultural land and our aquifers!?! And Biodiversity be damned to hell!

    Like my son said when he heard Turnbull on the radio this morning,
    “Malcolm Turnbull wants to take the country on a new path that leads to a dead end.”

  23. Anthony Albanese ‏@AlboMP 4m4 minutes ago

    Will be chatting with @frankelly08 on @RNBreakfast after 8am about #Election2016

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ross Gittins unspins the budget. He has a good crack at “innumerate journalists”, particularly those at the ABC getting sucked in.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-how-to-unspin-the-budget-20160507-gootiv.html
    Peter Martin on how the budget has got Turnbull off to a shaky campaign start.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-first-turnbull-budget-gets-election-2016-off-to-a-shaky-start-20160508-gop8el.html
    A reasonable preview of the election from the SMH editorial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/election-2016-in-search-of-better-government-from-either-side-20160508-gop25x.html
    Michelle Grattan warns against making big wagers on this election.
    https://theconversation.com/coalition-and-labor-close-in-ipsos-and-newspoll-as-election-race-starts-59054
    Lenore Taylor gives us eight things to think about as we enter the election campaign.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/08/eight-things-to-know-at-the-start-of-this-eight-week-election-campaign
    Laura Tingle with a pre-match analysis. Google.
    /news/politics/election/election-2016-the-starkest-choice-in-the-nature-of-government-in-years-20160508-gop4i9
    Michael Gordon has his say on the protagonists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/federal-election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-define-the-contest-20160508-gopbs7.html
    Stephen Koukoulas is not confident about the delivery of “jobs and growth”.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/signs-are-not-good-for-a-budget-based-on-jobs-growth-and-investment.html
    Urban Wronski writes of another endless fruitless week for the Turnbull Show.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/05/08/another-endless-fruitless-week-in-the-turnbull-show/
    The RBA is running out of ammunition says Brian Toohey. Google.
    /opinion/interest-rates-reserve-bank-is-running-out-of-ammunition-20160508-gop2jm
    Peter Wicks has a good crack at Di Natale.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/jumping-someone-elses-train-the-greens-put-someone-elses-best-foot-forward/
    Kate McClymont lifts the lid on the bag men of the NRL.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/rugby-leagues-dirty-secret-confessions-of-an-nrl-bagman-20160508-gop7ys.html

  28. Section 2 . . .

    A pep talk to voters from Kristina Keneally. A good read.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/08/its-time-to-choose-australia-its-time-to-pick-a-side-choose-wisely
    Mark Kenny contrasts the leaders’ two different approaches – including Turnbull’s ignoring of climate change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/malcolm-turnbulls-poll-gamble–jobs-later-versus-services-now-20160508-gopcyp.html
    “View from the Street” roams far and wide to have a go at various ministers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-prime-minister-ruins-mothers-day-20160508-gop9mn.html
    More on Morrison’s Insiders train wreck.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/i-said-allegedly-barrie-scott-morrison-refuses-to-apologise-to-save-the-children-20160507-gop1el.html
    On principle I have NEVER purchased a single bottle of water. It’s crazy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/bottled-water-boom-why-australians-are-paying-more-per-litre-than-for-milk-and-petrol-20160506-goo1h1.html
    Another example of the religious closing ranks on sexual abusers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/israeli-court-delays-extradition-hearing-of-melbourne-principal-facing-child-sex-charges-20160508-gopg9y.html
    The huge wildfire in Canada is approaching oils sands sites.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/canada-wildfire-explodes-in-size-approaches-oil-sands-project-20160508-gop2yx.html
    Tim Dick writes that greedy companies are only hurting themselves.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/greedy-companies-are-only-hurting-themselves-20160508-gop2pv.html
    John Brogden reckons PMs shouldn’t be able to set election dates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/prime-ministers-shouldnt-get-to-set-the-election-date-20160508-gop39k.html
    It looks like Sophie’s chances are cooked. Some good news already! Google.
    /federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-sophie-mirabellas-chances-in-indi-appear-lost/news-story/d1b27b4eac5175d155f31051452f4daa

  29. MB I don’t know about “proving you wrong”, but I suspect we will soon learn that Abbott was a more competent campaigner than Turnbull. Also, wanting to buy a house is “aspirational” for many.

  30. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    More from the Panama papers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-panama-papers-chinese-rich-listers-were-top-australian-clients-20160508-gopgk2.html
    Woolworths’ suppliers are not confident that Woolies is on the right track.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/price-investment-not-enough-say-woolworths-suppliers-20160508-gop45s.html
    Dairy farmers are about to go to war on Big Milk.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/dairy-farmers-go-to-war-on-murray-goulburn-fonterra-cuts-20160508-gop2lr.html
    Some one-eyed rubbish from Amanda Vanstone to kick off the election campaign.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-or-shorten-who-do-you-love–with-your-money-20160507-gooshe.html
    Pat Campbell gives Trump an Hispanic makeover.

    Mark Knight at the Logies.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c0f66daabea9d28723bbbab3ed2592c7?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe introduces the Election Clock. There’s a bit in this one.

  31. I agree the NBN is their Achilles heel, it blunts the new economy message.

    Bowen did well on Agenda yesterday I only heard the first 10 minutes before the steam cut out, but he go in the line ‘the deficit under the libs has tripled’ 3 times, in particular when talking about the deficit levy.
    I think (hope) Labor is more aware anytime since 1996 about the economic message, it helps the government has been so band with the economy.

  33. Love the way the “budget has lead to a shaky campaign start”, wasn’t the budget the answer to everything ?
    It was mentioned yesterday that one reason why Morrison was vulnerable because he couldn’t point to the unreleased budget.
    Martin’s article is about the IPSOS polling about the budget, second worst after 2014.

  34. Richard Denniss ‏@RDNS_TAI · 10h10 hours ago

    Just saw my first Liberal election ad. I wonder why they have renamed Free Trade Agreements as Export Trade Agreements #econobabble #auspol

  35. So, we’re off! If any of us are being honest, we can’t say for certain how things will end up, though it’s true that Labor has some momentum on their side at the start.

    The most potent line for Labor is the likelihood of a divided, directionless and dithering government should the Tories get re-elected. They really need to run hard with that line.

    What might save the government is that well-worn (if inaccurate) trope that “the Liberals are better economic managers”.

    Still, all to play for, and things are certainly much closer than they looked like they would be six months ago.

  36. Front page of the Sydney DT
    ‘Land of hope and Fear’

    Also
    ‘Underdog PM preaches opportunity and optimism as Shorten launches class-war scare campaign ‘

  37. From memory didn’t Abbott promise ONE million jobs before election 2013 has anyone any idea how many were created and as an aside how many were lost in the same period “jobs and growth ” indeed more like for the boys as Brandis just did with 70+ appointments

  38. Bilko

    The trick re promises of gazillions of “new” jobs is that population growth alone pretty much delivers those numbers.

  39. Why do the media bother getting Cormann on?
    It’s like one of those kids’toys that say the same thing over and over again every time they get touched.
    It’s boring and meaningless in the extreme.

  40. I’m wondering how the ‘blood in the water’ element will play out in the msm.
    Basically, the media will go on the attack if they know a leader will go to water if they do. It’s good, cheap copy and it makes the relevant journo look good.
    For example, I’ve heard David Speers – not someone I’ve picked as an incisive, analytical mind – lauded in recent days as one of the best political interveiwers in the country, because he reduced Malcolm to a waffling wreck.
    Now, reducing Malcolm to a waffling wreck isn’t actually that hard. Making him sound out of touch and elitist isn’t hard, either. Doing either – or both – of those things gets your interview replayed endlessly on various news sites and generates a few articles.
    To do the same with Bill, you have to actually work, and journos don’t really like that.
    Unless Malcolm dramatically lifts his game, realises he’s talking not to an individual journalist but through them to the Australian people, starts doing his homework so he’s across his brief and doesn’t have to hide his laziness with waffle, we can expect to see an almost endless stream of Media Moments where some journalist with their eyes on dominating the next 24 hours of the media cycle has goaded the PM into saying something newsworthy (in the wrong sense).

  41. Back in 2013, Australia had a work force of about 12 million, growing at the rate of about 1.5% per annum. Australia needed to create over 900,000 jobs over the following 5 years just to keep unemployment from going up. So one million new jobs over 5 years would have been barely break-even.

  43. BK re Cormann, I think he is always available for a comment, probably because he is reliable for the government.
    Also in a campaign isn’t it SOP for each party to nominate a spokesman, in 2013 I believe the ALP had Penny Wong.
    Don’t remember the coalition counterpart.

  44. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 18h18 hours ago

    Labor is the party of higher debt and more taxes, says the PM who is increasing tax as a proportion of GDP and blowing out the deficit.

    BK gets it.

  46. Question: The housing affordability issue is a two-edged sword for Labor. If it looms large in the campaign, then that will raise the question of how much prices – and therefore the accumulated wealth of much of the population – will fall. And this could scare away more swinging voters from Labor than it attracts.

    And the whole debate is a beat-up anyway. Housing prices are certainly very high in some (but by no means all) places, but buying a home is generally much more affordable than it was 20 years ago, when governments and banks were offering subsidies and low start loans (with repayments less than interest rates) to get people started. I think the main reason for the tendency of young people today to take longer to get into the housing market is largely a symptom of their lifestyle choices: travelling for longer, getting married later, having children later, etc.
    I can’t see any votes swinging to Labor on this issue.
    Lahor’s best shot is to run a negative campaign against the Government’s shortcomings: there’s plenty for them to work with there.

  47. The electronic version of today’s Daily Telegraph is dominated by the logies, given top billing plus several stories, with pictures. The election comes in at third in the left hand column, “ELECTION 2016: AUSTRALIANS will go to the polls on July 2 in a class-war contest between the promise of prosperity and the defence of the working class.” In the ‘paper’ edition, the election covers the entire front page, with headline and leading paragraph as described by John Riedy @7:27AM above.

  48. Meher Baba disagree. The proportion of 18-30 yr olds living with their parents has increased significantly in the last two decades. Some of that would be lifestyle based but most reflects housing affordability issues.

  49. I think the main reason for the tendency of young people today to take longer to get into the housing market is largely a symptom of their lifestyle choices: travelling for longer, getting married later, having children later, etc.

    That maybe true but if you think people won’t vote for it you’re dreaming.

  50. “Turnbull’s $1.2 billion “additional funding” for schools is not additional at all, here’s why”

    In other words, the “new” money is just the result of ditching the paltry CPI index rate in favour of a slightly higher “education specific indexation rate of 3.56%” which is still below the higher indexation rates (up to 4.7%) that the Coalition removed in its 2014 budget.

    …This partial restoration of funding comes with conditions
    Significantly, these conditions are proposed despite the Coalition’s critique of Labor’s policy conditions in its education grants and despite the Coalition’s rhetoric about making the states sovereign in their own spheres.

    …So what will schools and states get under the Coalition’s promised $73.6 billion Student Achievement Plan?

    Smaller funding increases and more conditions and tests, which I doubt will improve learning or outcomes for Australian school students.

    http://www.aare.edu.au/blog/?p=1548

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