There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.
Preselection news:
• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.
• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.
• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.
• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.
• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.
• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.
InsidersABC: The Treasurer is our guest on Sunday. On the panel: @latingle @andrewprobyn @GMegalogenis #Insiders #auspol @ABCTV https://t.co/Qg12blvAMi
The Bank of England (those Bolsheviks again) published a paper describing how money is actually created:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf
In particular:
because (inter alia):
EG Theodore
Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:10 pm
From the article you posted
“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it
simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the
borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.”
Also
“Monetary policy acts as the ultimate limit on money
creation. The Bank of England aims to make sure the
amount of money creation in the economy is consistent with
low and stable inflation”
Adrian
Yep. The Economics stuff is making me think too hard.
Corporate_misfit
The main feature is its behaviour, not that it’s electronic. I’m not sure its behaviour would resemble bitcoin (which needs to be mined).
It’s just that nobody would track their UOMes if they weren’t forced to, and trying to force it with physical currency would create a bureaucratic headache. Then there’s the question of being able to easily inspect someone’s balance. So it is electronic only because it would be impractical to implement otherwise.
Corporate_misfit
But there is no multiplying in the examples leading up to that conclusion. Everything still added up to $100 and then all of a sudden there’s $500. I suspect that what the example should have said was that if someone deposits $20 the bank is allowed to lend $80, so $60 has been “created”. Then you have a multiplier.
Triton
Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:18 pm
There is a table in the middle of the page that may help you
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_multiplier
or allowed to lend $100, “creating” $80.
guytaur
The Insiders Panel is excellent, but I’ll give Morrison a miss, I expect!
Or an innovative and agile poster to appear!
Devious business this of banks.
You uncover a very interesting viewpoint on history over the last 200 years if you examine conflicts in the light of banking.
A very, very, very large number of wars have just happened to be fought between parties that support the banking described by the bank of England, and those that oppose it or were engaged in changing that system for their people or staying out of it.
Seeing that, one might come to the conclusion that the West is run purely for, and dominated by the owners of private commercial banks.
L G H
Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:26 pm
This election is not different ….the banks and the LNP vs the rest of us
This money multiplier thing depends on how the system is set up. If we go with this from wikipedia:
It’s not that banks are creating money themselves, so much as prompting the creation of money by taking on a loan from an entity that is allowed to create money.
(hint: I’d probably want to defend my position to if my billions (and future trillions) and power depending on defending that position.)
Unfortunate for the rest of humanity however.
Budget 2016: Wentworth the biggest winner from budget tax cuts
Malcolm Turnbull’s harbourside electorate of Wentworth has the biggest proportion of earners who will benefit fully from income tax cuts unveiled in the budget.
More than one-third of income earners in the Prime Minister’s seat will get the $315 annual relief from the decision to lift the threshold, at which the second top tax rate applies, from $80,000 to $87,000. That’s the largest share of all 150 electorates in the federal parliament.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-wentworth-the-biggest-winner-from-budget-tax-cuts-20160506-gonxem.html#ixzz47qYtB7eH
Corporate_misfit, it looks to me like that table is cheating. It’s adding up the _same_ money multiple times. Take the middle column of the first two rows: the $64 came out of the $80 above it. It’s not new money. The person who borrowed the $80 no longer has it because it was loaned to another bank, which kept $16 and lent out the other $64. The total money (or bags of wheat) is still 100.
It’s a multiplier in the sense that you would expect the system to be set up so they can’t just prompt more money out of it however they like, but only up to some limit that is dependent on their transactions with the rest of society – i.e. not including the money creating entity because that would just lead to circular silliness.
PhoenixRED, who would have guessed? Their supreme arrogance has lead them to believe that they are invincible, and can virtually do anything that they like. Hubris on a grand scale.
More gold for Labor.
Fairfax flags end to weekday SMH and Age
Fairfax Media has flagged an end to weekday print editions of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in the face of falling advertising revenue.
Chief executive Greg Hywood said the masthead newspapers – which have been in print since 1831 and 1854 respectively – could become weekend-only, as those editions generate the majority of their advertising revenue.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/fairfax-says-2h-revenue-down-23-so-far/news-story/042fb39ab3b94e49d701302180f810e5
Corporate_Misfit
It does make this election seem more critical than most.
Then I remember though, that even if the LNP win the election they are highly unlikely to be able to pass much of their policy platform through the new senate despite the intention of the double dissolution.
I am afraid for what happens to the country with inaction too though.
L G H
I once got a short lecture from a Cabinet Secretary on the ‘economic causes of war’. Mostly went over my head.
The pommie ones are all economists. It’s much easier here in the PS to cope with the lawyers.
swamprat @ #1047 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:04 pm
Interesting enough Labour gained a seat from SNP, SNP gained seats from elsewhere. Conservatives might come in second.
Morgan leadership ratings poll:
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6788-better-pm-turnbull-shorten-may-2016-201605060325
Jack the Insider with some tips on betting on the coming elections:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/jack-the-insider-gambling-on-an-australian-wellhung-future/news-story/1fb9dc772df337020f21eeb69c8b0d60
RE: Business tax cuts and economic growth
I had a thought today, what if the $50 billion that corporate tax cuts were said to cost over 10 years was instead paid out to manufacturers in the form of a labour subsidy.
E.g. provide $100 per week in wage subsidies per full-time worker to manufacturers (1 million workers, 52 weeks in a year, 10 years) total cost $52b
How many jobs would that save? How much savings from Centrelink, crime and health care budgets? How many more job opportunities for workers unsuited to the “new economy”?
Bare in mind at minimum wage, $100 per week subsidy equates to around a 15% discount on their cost of employment to the business.
Does anyone know if such an approach (appropriately policed for fraud of course) would run foul of any free trade agreements?
An alternative approach (particularly suited to manufacturing that involves higher cost labour) would be to provide an income tax discount to manufacturing workers (e.g. a $15,000 tax offset) and provide the industry room to cut or slow wage growth (e.g. the workers are still better off in terms of disposable income).
WB
19% down big!
Those leadership ratings
Is that the sound of the penny dropping?
More Morgan leadership polling:
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6787-preferred-leaders-liberal-labor-may-2016-201605060225
Also, 2PP reversed from the previous 51/49 from a small sample.
Since October, so not particularly telling us anything we didn’t already know.
Leadership ratings….???? Meh!
2PP is my guide.
I have to admit that to me economics is the modern equivalent of counting angels dancing on pin heads. I suspect it is related to academics having to publish or peril. Players are forced to invent ever more arcane musing to justify their existence.
But it could be just that my evident inexperience with money is showing.
william bowe @ #1073 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:42 pm
Morgan also seems to have TPP results buried in the article: 51-49 to the L/NP, though it doesn’t say how preferences are allocated or what the primary votes are.
Snap Boerwar!
On the banking reserve multiplier discussion – it would probably save a lot of time to just skip ahead to the part where it turns out it’s all bunkum.
Spill now
[Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 22% (down 5%) of electors is still the preferred Labor Leader ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 20% (down 3%), Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 14% (up 5%) and shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen 8% (up 3%).]
Raaraa
Labour still on only 3 seats
LibDems 4
Conservatives 6
SNP 57
65 seats needed for majority
Regional List votes still to come in
I think Labours overall vote is down 12%.
The Greens may pick up more list seats. Patrick Harvie the Green Leader says they may pick up 11 or 12 seats (currently 2).
Misfit
It creates the new money by making the loan (and matching deposits). No multiplier here.
The limits (for a given bank) relate to that bank’s ability to operate in the market, as determined (principally) by the relevant reserve bank’s interest rate target and (secondarily, at the margins) by the availability of creditworthy borrowers (whether a given borrower is creditworthy is not wholly a function of the interest rate target).
Again, no multiplier here.
shellbell
Bowen going well at the moment. A bit of a surprise to me.
Maybe trade-in the Merc , CTar1 ?????
First drive of Bentley Bentayga, the world’s richest, fastest SUV
After teasing overseas test drives, the first example has finally arrived on Australian roads.
Fewer than 50 will be delivered locally by the end of this year, and the queue already stretches into early 2017 — despite the eye-watering price, which is the equivalent of two Range Rovers, and then some.
At nearly half a million dollars ($494,009 as tested), the Bentley shows there are still no bounds — financial or technological — to the world’s love affair with SUVs.
With a top speed of 301km/h, it would outpace most Porsches. With a 0 to 100km/h sprint time, it would see off most Ferraris.
It also has the dubious honour of having the world’s most expensive car accessory.
A Breitling clock in the dashboard costs almost $300,000 — on top of the half-mill price tag. There is already a digital clock in the instrument display.
Bentley claims Breitling can build only four of these particular in-car clocks each year, and two are already sold. None are on Australia-bound cars, apparently.
Other accessories: a $55,000 picnic hamper, a $10,000 leather-lined child seat and $6500 for a dog cage in the back.
Radar cruise control is part of a $15,465 “touring” pack while floor mats are $972.
Sensors that enable you to open the tailgate when your hands are full — with a deft one-legged swing of your foot under the bumper — are a $1702 option on the Bentley, even though they are standard on a $40,000 Ford Kuga.
A cigarette lighter is $1151. The price of luxury.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/first-drive-of-bentley-bentayga-the-worlds-richest-fastest-suv/news-story/7de13ceadb21548dad54a0a93a310a8c
For the people discussing how money is created, I recommend listening to this. It is pretty good. I have the link start at the point when they start explaining how US Federal Reserve “creates” money.
https://youtu.be/S0pQNkX8jLM?t=437
I think those leader ratings for Bill Shorten are quiet unfair to him.
Looking at past Labor opposition leaders since 1984:
Shorten
Bowen (briefly)
Rudd
Beasley
Latham
Crean
Shorten is easily best/second best (depending on your views on Rudd) and certainly much better than average.
I wasn’t a Shorten booster a year ago but have been won over by a lot of the opinion on this board and observation of the man himself.
He is a great foil for Turnbull, importantly Shorten doesn’t seem a born to rule or entitled type, and acts quiet seemingly without ego and with real commitment to people.
I also hope should Labor lose that they keep their policy platform and leadership intact until the following election when they will be sure to win by a landslide and have unprecedented scope to enact policy with mandate.
Ctar1
He has a poor track record as a minister.
Leigh would be better but he may need to be deacademicised a little
I am worried about your brumbies
EG Theodore
Friday, May 6, 2016 at 3:06 pm
Another try:
It is well explained here:
http://www.colorado.edu/economics/courses/econ2020/section10/section10-main.html
redPhoeenix
I’ve driven an E55 often enough to know that the standard version is much more than enough fast for me.
Let alone quick motorbikes – reflexes too slow and not enough weight to keep the front down.
Misfit
The BoE measured the flows (similar to Steph Kelton’s measurements of Fed operations in her PhD). The measurements are inconsistent with multiplication but consistent with their explanation.
Inconsistency with the evidence makes multiplication wrong.
Actually I think it was S&P who did the measurement – I will try to find their paper
shellbell
Leigh comes across as way to academic. I vote for him but wouldn’t go to see him talk.
The Brumbies – started well, I guess, but now not contenders now.
ABC radio news this afternoon quoted Turnbull claiming it was appropriate that Treasury Secretary (and not the Treasurer) issued the 10 year estimate of revenue foregone under lower business taxes.
Using this logic, why did Morrison claim that Treasury found a black hole in Labor’s 10 year tobacco tax costings? We know the answer to both matters of course!