BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continued to inch its way in favour of Labor in the lead-up to Tuesday night’s budget.

There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

bludgertrack-2016-05-05

Preselection news:

• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.

• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.

• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.

• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.

• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.

• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,178 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 21 of 24
1 … 20 21 22 … 24

  1. Interesting how the atmospherics change in three years. Back then the gurus were outlining one of the iron clad rules of politics that few – if any – leaders of the opposition survive to lead their party to an election in a term immediately after defeat. Many examples were trotted out to support this point – and while it did seem that many LOTO did not make it – some do and Shorten certainly has.

    In the meantime the cry from members of the LNP is now to “Stop Bill Shorten becoming PM”. What an about-face this is. It suggests that Shorten’s period of stability and policy presentation really has the conservatives rattled.

    Whether this is enough to mean the Oz electorate is willing to trust Labor just yet or see Labor run a closely lost election remains to be seen. In any case, I would think that Labor – should they lose – are likely to be in a stronger position than they are now and even if Shorten were to offer his resignation, Labor should stick with him. Even in defeat – given it is close, and there is no reason it should not be – watching Shorten stalk Turnbull or better still, watch the Libs go back to Abbott or chance Morrison will be worth it.

    I am yet to be convinced in the era of 10 minute attention spans, that voting out a first term Federal government is not on the cards. While a rare event, it is not dictum by any means.

  3. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/department-of-parliamentary-services-staff-forced-to-relocate-due-to-crowded-house-20160505-gomscv.html
    “At a Senate estimates hearing on Thursday, Mr Stefanic said 85 staff from the ICT and finance workforce would be based in the nearby Minter Ellison building in Barton for two years.”
    Now that’s value for money for you. DPS was consolidated into the APH basement about 10 years ago by ex secretary Hilary Penfold to save on rent.
    Now there are moving again but I have a better idea – boot out the press gallery occupying the entire Senate wing second floor, decontaminate it (costly job) and put t DPS staff in there. Much cheaper.

  4. Steve Keen has developed some interesting modeling software that he calls Minsky.

    Worth a play with if you have the time.

  5. Sorry if already posted.

    A group of asylum seekers whose wooden boat made it to within 500 metres of the Cocos Islands have been flown back to Sri Lanka in the cover of night, in a highly-secretive operation.

    The small boat was intercepted close to the Indian Ocean archipelago, about halfway between Australia and Sri Lanka, in rough weather on Monday morning.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seekers-flown-back-to-sri-lanka-from-cocos-islands-20160506-gonsvx.html

  7. Nicholas
    #982 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 12:13 pm

    If there’s no deficit to “pay for”, why was the federal government still issuing bonds during the years of surpluses?

    Commonwealth securities are purchased (using money “created” by the posting of debit and credit entries in reciprocating balance sheets) by private intermediaries. These securities appear as assets in the balance sheets of those intermediaries, who can then create new loans “supported” by the value of the Commonwealth securities they hold as “reserves”. So the borrowing of the Commonwealth creates new money in the accounts of the Commonwealth as well as being one of the devices by which banks create new money in the accounts of their borrowers.

    Commonwealth monetary activity has originating power in the functioning of banking, the creation of money and in propelling exchange in the real economy.

    The monetary activities of the Commonwealth have corresponding fiscal dimensions. As is most often the case in this economy, a “fiscal gap” exists (expenditure exceeds taxation). This “gap” supports private demand. It is at once a transfer (by means of expenditures) from public accounts to private accounts and the creation of private assets/public liabilities. It enables the accumulation of savings in selected households and corporates while the public accounts “dis-save”. Time was, most of those assets were reflected in direct equity investment in the real economy. These days, these assets are mostly transferred via the banking sector into speculation in land, to our common detriment.

    It does not have to be this way. We can choose what we do with private savings and with recycled excess fiscal transfers. Since 1987, we have run a largely laissez-faire banking sector that has been swelled up by lending for housing. We might choose another path to economic development.

    The long-observed very low rates of productivity growth and very feeble growth in per capita income are directly attributable to our failure to direct investment flows into the real economy. We should undo this.

  10. I hope Bludgers don’t mind my asking a stupid question: I thought I saw a report the other day that the LNP was polling ahead of Labor in Queensland. So, why are they getting rid of their leader?

  11. A couple more adjustments on the early electorate markets today. McEwen the big correction from $2.25 outsider to very short $1.10 favourite for Labor to hold it. Probably no great surprise there. Banks has also shifted from $4.50 into $2.50.

  12. CM,
    Thanks. I have a lot of time for Steve Keen. At least he uses non-linear models that include feedback loops , and which actually do predict with some accuracy future economic events. My OH, not an economist, worked with Keen at UWS, and still follows his work closely.

  14. I have been following the debate, re “What is money?” It’s something I want to understand.

    EG T: #995 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 12:40 pm
    “banks create money by writing loans”
    “Commonwealth spending creates money and in the immediate sense funds itself. Taxes simply destroy money…”

    I’m confused.

    “banks create money by writing loans”

    The way I think about it is that banks hold my money and lend it out. (They take it from me and give it to someone else.) That someone else promises to give it back, plus a little more, which we call “interest”. The bank then gives that money back to me, with interest, keeping some of that interest for itself. If that is true, then banks merely move money around, including moving money to themselves. In a macro sense no money is created. It is taken from some, and given to others. What that doesn’t answer for me, is where did all that money come from originally?

    “Commonwealth spending creates money… Taxes simply destroy money…”

    This is easier for me to understand. Money is an invention and currency is a creation of a society, in our case Australian Dollars are created by the Australian Nation. How many Australian Dollars exist right now? If you add up every bank account and every bit of paper money, how much is it? (I can imagine that is very big number.) If taxation destroys money and government spending creates it, then “running a surplus” is another way of saying “reducing the number of Australlian Dollars.” Conversely, “running a deficit” would be “increasing the number of Australian Dollars.” If the aim is growing the size of the economy, which I think I’ve seen quoted as a number of Australian Dollars, then this implies you can only grow the economy by running a deficit.

    Unless banks and not government create money. Which would mean the banks are in charge.

    Thoughts?

  16. Late Riser, I didn’t think the banks, other than central banks, created money either. Years ago I asked in another forum what is to stop a big bank gone rogue from simply creating money out of thin air. People trust a bank cheque, so why can’t the bank issuing a cheque simply not deduct the amount from its own account when the cheque is cashed, with no one the wiser? I forget the details but the answer had to do with all the banks having to settle transactions with the Reserve Bank so they all add up, though I’m still convinced that a bank couldn’t cheat.

  19. triton @ #1016 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 1:26 pm

    Late Riser, I didn’t think the banks, other than central banks, created money either. Years ago I asked in another forum what is to stop a big bank gone rogue from simply creating money out of thin air. People trust a bank cheque, so why can’t the bank issuing a cheque simply not deduct the amount from its own account when the cheque is cashed, with no one the wiser? I forget the details but the answer had to do with all the banks having to settle transactions with the Reserve Bank so they all add up, though I’m still convinced that a bank couldn’t cheat.

    The makes the Reserve Bank sound like a regulator and “banks create money” sound like a con. 🙂

  20. kevin-one-seven @ #1013 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    NORWESTER – Are these bets being put on by people with internal party polling, do you think?

    No, I think it is more likely at this stage that a few small punters who follow aggregated polling thought that the market’s opening price on McEwen was rather generous. The shift in Banks brings it more into line with Eden-Monaro as being among the first couple of seats that might fall if Labor can get a decent swing in NSW. The one I am a little surprised with is Dobell – notionally now just a Labor seat after redistribution but where the Libs are favourites to hold on to it. The seat markets are very small and won’t take large bets. Which is probably just as well.

  23. From lizzie’s link [repeated below] at 12.41
    “The immigration department has issued a statement of regret and agreed compensation for the sacking of former Save the Children staff on Nauru who were subsequently deported over unsubstantiated claims they had coached asylum seekers to harm themselves…..
    In October 2014 10 Save the Children staff were sacked, and nine deported, with the then immigration minister Scott Morrison saying he had received information indicating “that there may have been a level of coaching and facilitation and co-ordination amongst people who are working for one of our service providers”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/06/immigration-department-pays-compensation-sacked-nauru-save-the-children-workers

    Scott Morrison mislead the public and falsely smeared innocent people.
    He should resign or be sacked.

    This issue should be a lead item on every media outlet.

  24. Douglas And Milko
    Friday, May 6, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    If are interested there is a book called “Why Minsky Matters”
    Worth a read.

  25. norwester @ #1011 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 1:11 pm

    A couple more adjustments on the early electorate markets today. McEwen the big correction from $2.25 outsider to very short $1.10 favourite for Labor to hold it. Probably no great surprise there. Banks has also shifted from $4.50 into $2.50.

    Living in that electorate I am not surprised at all. Rob Mitchell (sitting member ALP) has been active with local meeting posts etc. He hosted an NBN forum here a week ago and got Jason Clare in to answer questions. Lib candidate has been caught not once but twice within a couple of days parking where he should not – shows typical Lib entitled attitude.

  26. Government is busy doing appointments. I hope Labor has the guts this time to undo most of them. An exception would be the Reserve Bank one as Labor supports that appointment

  30. Its going to be interesting to see what funds the Liberal party has for campaigning.

    In NSW AEC holding money back. In Victoria they got ripped off by a fraudster. Must constrain their campaign to some extent.

  31. Corporate_misfit, that multiplier page doesn’t make sense to me. The initial $100 deposited is simply being depleted as each 80% is loaned out. After two banks, the first bank has $20, the second bank has $16 and there’s $64 left over. It doesn’t matter how many times the process is repeated, it all still adds up to $100.

  32. Will the ALP commit to tecalling and dismissing every Coalition hack such as Joe Hockey from all ambassadorships or sinecured positions?

  35. misfit

    From your link:
    So Victoria really id different!!

    Mr Grudnoff said Victoria was different to the rest of the nation because the wealth was distributed among three different parties. Across Australia Liberal-held seats are the top beneficiaries, Labor seats in the middle and Nationals held seats at the bottom.

  37. Hi Late riser,

    I have been following the debate, re “What is money?” It’s something I want to understand.

    “banks create money by writing loans”
    “Commonwealth spending creates money and in the immediate sense funds itself. Taxes simply destroy money…”

    There are different definitions of money, or more precisely, there are different types of money satisfying a heirarchy of charateristics.

    At the highest is the money created from nothing by governments, and demanded by governments to pay taxes. This might include the bits of paper and nickel alloy that facilitate exchange.

    Below this are (securitised) credits created by banks, then securities issued by firms. At the bottom are IOU’s issued by households and individuals.

    To get a sense of how the ‘power’ of money increases from lowest to highest, you have to define a purpose for the money.

    You want to borrow $5 from me for a schooner. No problem, I’m a (slightly) generous guy and trust you will repay me somehow in the future.

    You want to $5,000 for a new car – I don’t want to do that, but a bank might, depending on your purposes.

    You want to borrow $50,000 to pay your taxes… good luck.

  38. Triton
    Friday, May 6, 2016 at 1:46 pm
    From the article:
    “until finally the $100 initially deposited creates a total of $500 ($100 / 0.2) in deposits. This creation of deposits is the multiplier effect.

    The initial deposit is $100. The final impact on the economy is and increase of $500 circulating.

  39. laughtong @ #1025 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 1:35 pm
    Living in that electorate I am not surprised at all.
    There was a bit of talk some weeks back that the Libs thought they were a chance in McEwen. Maybe they were – at the height of Turnbull’s honeymoon. Or maybe they were trying to divert Labor into moving resources away from the campaigns in Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite and Dunkley. Either way, the bookies appear to have bought that spin and have had to correct rather dramatically!

  40. From Crikey:
    What a lot of bull.

    On making the announcement in Senate estimates yesterday, Brandis said Wilson had been “enormously successful” in his advocacy for freedom during a “particularly distinguished term” where he “reshaped” the discussion about human rights in Australia.
    But Triggs warned the decision to appoint three commissioners could potentially reduce the effectiveness of the commission. The Human Rights Commission is already facing $5 million in budget cuts and a 2.5% efficiency dividend on top of the cuts. Without extra funding, the commission would be out another $700,000 for the third commissioner role.

  42. The multiplier examples fail to show the liabilities that have also been created. They give the impression that money has been created when it has not. Don’t believe me? Imagine the examples using bags of wheat instead.
    Banks can only lend funds they have available to them. That means money they have borrowed from others (e.g. depositors) and capital (from shareholders or retained earnings). They can’t create anything.

  43. Misfit

    Australia abolished its reserve requirements in july 1999 bu they currently aiming at around 10%

    The way this is achieved is that RBA credits reserve accounts AFTER new loans are written, to bring the reserves up to the 10% target (or whatever).

    That is the loans (and the new money created as result) drive the increase in reserves not the other way around.

    The reserves are not used to provide liquidity. If a bank rwq

  44. Just go with a fully electronic currency. Allow anyone to issue IOUs. The catch is that at the same time as you issue someone else an IOU, you are issued a UOMe. Everyone’s balance and transaction history is public. People are free not to trade with someone (or a linked group of people) who have an excess of UOMes.

  45. Misfit

    Australia abolished its reserve requirements in july 1999 bu they currently aiming at around 10%

    The way this is achieved is that RBA credits reserve accounts AFTER new loans are written, to bring the reserves up to the 10% target (or whatever).

    That is the loans (and the new money created as result) drive the increase in reserves not the other way around.

    The reserves are not used to provide liquidity to satisfy deposit claims. If a bank requires liquidity it must go to its peer and borrow the liquid money from them (with an offsetting effect in the relevant reserve accounts). Reserve accounts (which are of course highly restricted in their availability) act somewhat like an overdraft facility restricted to inter-bank transactions

  47. Scotish Election 73 constituencies vote count so far:
    Further 9.6% swing from Labour to SNP from 2011
    SNP 46..4% seats so far 49
    Labour 23.1% seats 3
    Conservative&Unionist 21.5% seats 5
    Liberal Democrats 7.8% seats 4

Comments Page 21 of 24
1 … 20 21 22 … 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *