There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.
Preselection news:
• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.
• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.
• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.
• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.
• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.
• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.
In Queanbeyan today I noticed that Mike Kelly has opened a shopfront a few doors down from the current incumbent of Eden-Monaro.
S&P paper is at:
https://issuu.com/positivemoney/docs/sp-banks-cannot-and-do-not-lend-out
Observe Chart 1 – evidence was consistent with money multiplier until the GFC, and inconsistent thereafter: GFC proved Wicksell’s critcs wrong.
CTar1 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 3:29 pm
redPhoeenix
I’ve driven an E55 often enough to know that the standard version is much more than enough fast for me.
********************************************************
Seen in local rag used car section : 1993 TOYOTA SUPRA TWIN TURBO AERO • TOP (G2), 1993 very rare, every toy, leather, mini disc, climate, traction, crise, 18in alloys, brand new tyres, priv/plate (SUP 93), 0-60 in 5, 160+ mph, awesome, girlfriend forgot to take pill, gutted. $14,000, . Tel: xxxxxxxx
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/03/the-time-has-come-to-turn-up-the-heat-on-those-who-are-wrecking-planet-earth?CMP=share_btn_tw
So Turnbull has gone from an approval rating of +50 to +2 in 6 months. I wanna extrapolate that to July 2….
simon katich @ #1105 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 3:43 pm
As he said…….he had politican capital to burn……
…..and so it goes 👿
Policy on the run?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-06/interns-will-receive-compensation-under-youth-employment-package/7391096
Apropos of nothing:
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com.au/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
Branch stacking claims rock Liberals
A MAJOR branch stacking row centred on the office of former Defence Minister Kevin Andrews has broken out in the Victorian Liberal Party on the eve of the Federal Election.
The party’s administrative committee last night spent an hour discussing allegations several dozen people had been signed to the party improperly in Mr Andrews’s seat of Menzies.
The allegations involve forged signatures and claims people have signed up without their knowledge.
The Herald Sun is not suggesting Mr Andrews has acted inappropriately.
One Liberal with links to Mr Andrews is said to be “in the gun” over the allegations.
In some cases elderly people are alleged to have been signed up to the Liberal Party without their knowledge.
PhoenixRED
Kevin Andrews would never be Branch Stacking would he?
You’ll have to Google it, but here is the way to the developing Kevin Andrews branch stacking story.
/news/branch-stacking-claims-rock-liberals/news-story/8c97fca78fc171e3b9a4e7af4f6c32bd
Re the story of branch stacking in Kevin Andrews’ seat:
There was a story yesterday that Abbott is heading to Melbourne to join Andrews at a fund-raising function. Any chance the two matters are related?
citizen Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:03 pm
Re the story of branch stacking in Kevin Andrews’ seat:
There was a story yesterday that Abbott is heading to Melbourne to join Andrews at a fund-raising function. Any chance the two matters are related?
**********************************************
Tony to give Mr Grecian 2000 a few tips on claiming expenses on the taxpayers ???? :
Tony Abbott probably knows where his first dollar came from. His preoccupation with how much money is coming through the door is legend in Canberra amongst his colleagues.
How the taxpayer helped Tony Abbott flog Battlelines
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-28/35544
Reserve Bank slashes inflation forecasts, casting doubt on budget figures
RBA raises spectre of ultra-low inflation plaguing economy and feeds doubts about government’s ability to reduce deficit
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/06/reserve-bank-slashes-inflation-forecasts-casting-doubt-on-budget-figures
This is a perfect copy of a cartoon Mal – but it’s real!!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-number-malcolm-turnbull-wouldnt-reveal-company-tax-cut-to-cost-48-billion-over-10-years-20160505-gonr8c.html
“Rumour has it the first sign of caretaker government is when Kingston IGA runs out of party-pies, as public servants stock up for morning tea luncheons before downing tools.
But there’s an earlier sign: a flurry of government appointments to courts, boards, embassies and commissions in the hours before the Prime Minister hitches a ride to the Governor-General’s Yarralumla residence to call an election.”
Looks like more than a flurry:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/clear-the-decks-its-election-time-as-government-announces-new-appointments-20160506-goo567.html
Steve777
At least 24 appointments? – and they’ve signed the submarine contract.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/06/greg-hunt-argues-theres-no-definite-link-between-coal-and-climate-change?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco
Freakin climate change denialist government.
Lets sack em!
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/05/negative-gearing-the-elephant-in-the-budget-room/
Cant the ALP reverse all appointments (assuming they win) citing the Bracks precedent?
briefly @ #1120 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:31 pm
…………………………………………………………………………….
Turnbull needs to be reminded of the following when talk turns to $50 Billion tax cuts to companies and $20,000 pa tax cuts for millionaires —
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairness-is-absolutely-critical-malcolm-turnbull-says-tax-reform-will-be-more-than-gst-20151104-gkr6n6.html#ixzz47r0gJFS9
Turnbot says one thing one day and another the next. It’s no wonder his approval numbers are in vertical descent.
Nice quote from Saul “This is a government managing a bubble, not an economy. “
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/05/an-iron-anvil-is-poised-above-turnbulls-head/
We have a casino economy…absolutely crazy.
Simon
If they want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness, then yes they can.
Otherwise, no.
Joizus! This blog has turned into Larvatus Prodeo today! 😀
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/out-of-the-blocks-bill-shorten-quicker-than-malcolm-turnbull-in-early-running-20160506-goo1w5.html
Is Saul Eslake the only honest professional economist running around out there?
As long as Labor doesn’t do the too clever by half Rudd thing and appoint Liberals if they win the election, I’m happy to let Coalition appointments wash through the system.
I mean, Labor are going to be around for a while, so…
eg theodore @ #1126 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:46 pm
Getting rid of LNP stooges and toadies is hardly being vindictive.
Competent people are required.
kevin-one-seven @ #1129 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:49 pm
I’d add Stephen Koukoulas, George Megalogenis and Ross Garnaut to the list.
EG Theo [If they want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness, then yes they can.
Otherwise, no.]
I want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness to this pack of lard cards masquerading as a political party. Wait till you hear my list of Royal Commission ideas.
phoenix
… Yeh. Right.
See me after the first 100,000.
Scottish Election 5 May 16
Of 115 seats decided (out of 129):
SNP 60 (-4)
Con&Union 25 (+12)
Labour 20 (-12)
Greens 6 (+4)
LibDem 4 (+1)
– Might be a SNP-Green coalition Government. 🙂
I am wondering if any bludgers have been looking back over records of the last 9 years to see how much concessional contributions they have made into their pension fund. Also wondering, if it is over the $500k life time limit, what they will be doing with the money they will have to take out of the fund.
C@t
And another good economist – Greg Jericho.
Who said unionists don’t have a sense of humour?
Email just received from ACTU.
If you want realistic credible evidence based economic comment and analysis the Professor Bill Mitchell is the bloke to read.
Not every one’s cuppa tea but that is related to his ‘realistic credible evidence based economic comment’ contrasting to neolib orthodoxy.
His website
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/
His wiki bio
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Mitchell_(economist)
https://www.laborherald.com.au/economy/the-verdict-is-in-the-turnbullmorrison-budget-is-a-shambles/
Turnbull is either a very bad liar or a bumbling buffoon……
Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
Tony Burke
2h2 hours ago
Tony Burke @Tony_Burke
Did he really think he would get away with this? #auspol
https://amp.twimg.com/v/86b57b99-213d-43f5-b1cf-916570b32711 …
swamprat @ #1135 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 5:00 pm
Can SNP get another 5 seats from the seats still being decided?
‘Turnbull is either a very bad liar or a bumbling buffoon……’
Hey, don’t eliminate the possibility of both.
Adrian
Too true
Leroy
6h6 hours ago
Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
Alan Jones talks to Bill Shorten about his budget reply. http://www.4bc.com.au/news/alan-jones-bill-shorten-20160505-gonp53.html … audio – worth
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/06/reserve-bank-slashes-inflation-forecasts-casting-doubt-on-budget-figures?CMP=share_btn_tw
bk @ #1137 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 5:06 pm
Grog ftw! Yes!
Plus, I forgot Labor’s very own Dr Andrew Leigh.
Key economic thinkers who understand the fiscal powers of currency-issuing governments that don’t have debts denominated in foreign currencies and whose currencies float on international markets and are not convertible at pre-determined fixed rates into gold or another currency:
Abba Lerner
Hyman Minsky
Bill Mitchell
Randall Wray
Stephanie Kelton
Pavlina Tcherneva
lizzie,
You are doing a sterling job supplementing BK’s morning links throughout the day. 🙂