BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continued to inch its way in favour of Labor in the lead-up to Tuesday night’s budget.

There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

bludgertrack-2016-05-05

Preselection news:

• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.

• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.

• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.

• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.

• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.

• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,178 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24
  1. In Queanbeyan today I noticed that Mike Kelly has opened a shopfront a few doors down from the current incumbent of Eden-Monaro.

  2. CTar1 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 3:29 pm
    redPhoeenix
    I’ve driven an E55 often enough to know that the standard version is much more than enough fast for me.

    ********************************************************

    Seen in local rag used car section : 1993 TOYOTA SUPRA TWIN TURBO AERO • TOP (G2), 1993 very rare, every toy, leather, mini disc, climate, traction, crise, 18in alloys, brand new tyres, priv/plate (SUP 93), 0-60 in 5, 160+ mph, awesome, girlfriend forgot to take pill, gutted. $14,000, . Tel: xxxxxxxx

  3. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/03/the-time-has-come-to-turn-up-the-heat-on-those-who-are-wrecking-planet-earth?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Global warming is the biggest problem we’ve ever faced as a civilisation — certainly you want to act to slow it down, but perhaps you’ve been waiting for just the right moment.

    The moment when, oh, marine biologists across the Pacific begin weeping in their scuba masks as they dive on reefs bleached of life in a matter of days. The moment when drought in India gets deep enough that there are armed guards on dams to prevent the theft of water. The moment when we record the hottest month ever measured on the planet, and then smash that record the next month, and then smash that record the next month? The moment when scientists reassessing the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet have what one calls an ‘OMG moment’ and start talking about massive sea level rise in the next 30 years?

    That would be this moment – the moment when 135 children have drowned in Thailand trying to cool off from the worst heatwave on record there. The moment when, in a matter of months, we’ve recorded the highest windspeeds ever measured in the western and southern hemispheres.

  4. So Turnbull has gone from an approval rating of +50 to +2 in 6 months. I wanna extrapolate that to July 2….

  5. Policy on the run?

    The Federal Government says it is yet to arrange workers compensation for those participating in its new youth unemployment plan, but will provide protection by the time the program starts next year.

    Budget Estimates has heard the Commonwealth’s workers compensation scheme will not cover the Youth Employment Package, unveiled in the Federal Budget.

    But Federal Employment Minister Michaelia Cash said while it was a decision for the Federal Government, she anticipated participants in the program would be protected by the time it starts in April 2017.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-06/interns-will-receive-compensation-under-youth-employment-package/7391096

  6. Branch stacking claims rock Liberals

    A MAJOR branch stacking row centred on the office of former Defence Minister Kevin Andrews has broken out in the Victorian Liberal Party on the eve of the Federal Election.

    The party’s administrative committee last night spent an hour discussing allegations several dozen people had been signed to the party improperly in Mr Andrews’s seat of Menzies.

    The allegations involve forged signatures and claims people have signed up without their knowledge.

    The Herald Sun is not suggesting Mr Andrews has acted inappropriately.

    One Liberal with links to Mr Andrews is said to be “in the gun” over the allegations.

    In some cases elderly people are alleged to have been signed up to the Liberal Party without their knowledge.

  7. You’ll have to Google it, but here is the way to the developing Kevin Andrews branch stacking story.
    /news/branch-stacking-claims-rock-liberals/news-story/8c97fca78fc171e3b9a4e7af4f6c32bd

  8. Re the story of branch stacking in Kevin Andrews’ seat:

    There was a story yesterday that Abbott is heading to Melbourne to join Andrews at a fund-raising function. Any chance the two matters are related?

  9. citizen Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:03 pm
    Re the story of branch stacking in Kevin Andrews’ seat:
    There was a story yesterday that Abbott is heading to Melbourne to join Andrews at a fund-raising function. Any chance the two matters are related?

    **********************************************
    Tony to give Mr Grecian 2000 a few tips on claiming expenses on the taxpayers ???? :
    Tony Abbott probably knows where his first dollar came from. His preoccupation with how much money is coming through the door is legend in Canberra amongst his colleagues.

    How the taxpayer helped Tony Abbott flog Battlelines
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-28/35544

  10. “Rumour has it the first sign of caretaker government is when Kingston IGA runs out of party-pies, as public servants stock up for morning tea luncheons before downing tools.

    But there’s an earlier sign: a flurry of government appointments to courts, boards, embassies and commissions in the hours before the Prime Minister hitches a ride to the Governor-General’s Yarralumla residence to call an election.”

    Looks like more than a flurry:

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/clear-the-decks-its-election-time-as-government-announces-new-appointments-20160506-goo567.html

  11. The federal environment minister has argued in court that coal from Australia’s largest coalmine would have no “substantial” impact on climate change and as a result he did not need to consider whether it would affect the Great Barrier Reef.

    …The minister’s reasoning was that whether the burning of the coal would make climate change worse depended on whether it would increase the total amount of coal burned globally. But he notes there are a “raft of factors” that could affect how much coal was burned globally, including whether the coal from the mine displaced other coal and whether it was dealt with within various national emissions targets.

    He concluded that there “was no requisite relationship between combustion emissions and increases in global temperature”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/06/greg-hunt-argues-theres-no-definite-link-between-coal-and-climate-change?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

  12. briefly @ #1120 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:31 pm

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/05/negative-gearing-the-elephant-in-the-budget-room/

    Independent economist, Saul Eslake, has today published an essay analysing Tuesday’s Federal Budget, whereby he argues that negative gearing is still the elephant in the room for the government which undermines its other Budget objectives, especially its savings measures around superannuation.

    …………………………………………………………………………….
    Turnbull needs to be reminded of the following when talk turns to $50 Billion tax cuts to companies and $20,000 pa tax cuts for millionaires —

    “The object of the taxation system is plainly to raise the revenue the government needs for its services it provides,” Mr Turnbull said.

    “But it must do so in a manner that backs Australians to work, save and invest – that backs them in rather than holds them back.

    …….. any reform package the government proposed would have to raise the revenue it needed, while sharing the burden fairly across the community.

    “Fairness is absolutely critical. Any package of reforms which is not and is not seen as fair will not and cannot achieve the public support without which it simply will not succeed,” Mr Turnbull said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairness-is-absolutely-critical-malcolm-turnbull-says-tax-reform-will-be-more-than-gst-20151104-gkr6n6.html#ixzz47r0gJFS9

  13. Dave
    #1122 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:35 pm

    Turnbot says one thing one day and another the next. It’s no wonder his approval numbers are in vertical descent.

  14. Simon

    Cant the ALP reverse all appointments (assuming they win) citing the Bracks precedent?

    If they want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness, then yes they can.
    Otherwise, no.

  15. Even before the election campaign is officially underway, Labor’s battle plan for the July 2 race has been laid bare via a windy, if politically sharp, budget reply speech by Bill Shorten.

    Shorten had been gifted the rare opportunity of beaming straight into the nation’s loungerooms right on the edge of the campaign, by Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to knock off the budget and the election announcement as a job-lot.

    {What looms is a highly presidential contest with each side building its positive case around its leader and its negative case around the opposing leader. }

    And while the opposition didn’t miss with several well-aimed barbs, his policy response was, like the budget itself, a mix of the measured, and the bold.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/out-of-the-blocks-bill-shorten-quicker-than-malcolm-turnbull-in-early-running-20160506-goo1w5.html

  16. As long as Labor doesn’t do the too clever by half Rudd thing and appoint Liberals if they win the election, I’m happy to let Coalition appointments wash through the system.

    I mean, Labor are going to be around for a while, so…

  17. eg theodore @ #1126 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 4:46 pm

    Simon

    Cant the ALP reverse all appointments (assuming they win) citing the Bracks precedent?

    If they want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness, then yes they can.
    Otherwise, no.

    Getting rid of LNP stooges and toadies is hardly being vindictive.
    Competent people are required.

  18. EG Theo [If they want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness, then yes they can.
    Otherwise, no.]
    I want to demonstrate Abbott level vindictiveness to this pack of lard cards masquerading as a political party. Wait till you hear my list of Royal Commission ideas.

  19. Scottish Election 5 May 16
    Of 115 seats decided (out of 129):

    SNP 60 (-4)
    Con&Union 25 (+12)
    Labour 20 (-12)
    Greens 6 (+4)
    LibDem 4 (+1)

    – Might be a SNP-Green coalition Government. 🙂

  20. I am wondering if any bludgers have been looking back over records of the last 9 years to see how much concessional contributions they have made into their pension fund. Also wondering, if it is over the $500k life time limit, what they will be doing with the money they will have to take out of the fund.

  21. Who said unionists don’t have a sense of humour?
    Email just received from ACTU.

    Dear bemused —

    The Australian newspaper has revealed the ACTU has a secret army. There is no point hiding it forever, so it’s time to come out of the shadows and onto the streets.

    Are you a member of the secret army? There is an easy way to check.

    Have you ever been a union member? Have you ever stood up for others? Do you believe in a better future for the next generation? Do you want to change the direction of our country?

    If you answered yes to all or most of these questions it is HIGHLY LIKELY you are part of the secret army, even if you didn’t know it. So we are calling on you to undertake a very important mission on 14th May.

    We will be gathering in 17 secret locations across the country. We aim to talk to 44,000 fellow union members about Malcolm Turnbull’s plans for our country. Sign up now to join us.
    Mission requirements:
    A minimum of two hours of your time
    A desire to change the direction of our country
    The ability to have a genuine conversation with your fellow Australians
    A desire to be part of a Nationwide movement of people who want a better future
    A more detailed mission brief will be given once you arrive at your location. This is of course TOP SECRET and can only be revealed once you are in the field.

    Malcolm Turnbull has fired the first shots in the election campaign by cutting Medicare, hospitals, Gonski and jobs in his budget. He also wants penalty rates cut. On 14th May we will be striking back.

    BONUS MISSION: Take the pledge to put the Liberals last and share it with your networks.

    See you on 14th May.

    Over and out.

    Secret Army HQ

  22. swamprat @ #1135 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 5:00 pm

    Scottish Election 5 May 16
    Of 115 seats decided (out of 129):
    SNP 60 (-4)
    Con&Union 25 (+12)
    Labour 20 (-12)
    Greens 6 (+4)
    LibDem 4 (+1)
    – Might be a SNP-Green coalition Government.

    Can SNP get another 5 seats from the seats still being decided?

  23. ‘Turnbull is either a very bad liar or a bumbling buffoon……’

    Hey, don’t eliminate the possibility of both.

  24. The official inflation forecasts in the Turnbull government’s first budget have been thrown into doubt just three days into their life.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut its inflation forecast for the end of this year by a whole percentage point, from a range of 2-3% to just 1-2%.

    It has also revised downwards its inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2018 – from a range of 2-3% to just 1.5-2.5%.

    It has raised the spectre of ultra-low inflation plaguing Australia’s economy for the next three years and raises serious doubts about the government’s ability to shrink the deficit. Its job is to keep inflation within a range of 2-3%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/06/reserve-bank-slashes-inflation-forecasts-casting-doubt-on-budget-figures?CMP=share_btn_tw

  25. Key economic thinkers who understand the fiscal powers of currency-issuing governments that don’t have debts denominated in foreign currencies and whose currencies float on international markets and are not convertible at pre-determined fixed rates into gold or another currency:

    Abba Lerner
    Hyman Minsky
    Bill Mitchell
    Randall Wray
    Stephanie Kelton
    Pavlina Tcherneva

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *