Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50

Now Ipsos joins the 50-50 club, while Newspoll dispenses with the notion that Labor’s lead a fortnight ago was a one-off.

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Hot on the heels of ReachTEL, and ahead of the regular results over the next two days from Roy Morgan and Essential Research, the two biggest media-commissioned polls have been added to the glut that marks today’s resumption of parliament. The three polls so far have sung from very much the same song sheet:

• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll’s latest voting intention result is exactly identical to last time, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 36% and up one point on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is down one on both measures to 31% and 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, narrowing from 48-27 to 47-28. The poll also records 45% saying “the Turnbull led Coalition” would be “most likely to spend responsibly and manage government debt”, compared with 31% for “the Shorten led Labor Party”. Presented with three options for what the priority of the next government should be, 39% opted for “reduce spending to pay down debt”, 26% for “reduce spending to cut taxes” and 23% for “increase spending on government programs”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone polling and online surveying, from a sample of 1628.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers concurs with ReachTEL in having a two-party result of 50-50, after the last poll had the Coalition leading 53-47. Primary votes are Coalition 42% (down three), Labor 33% (up two), Greens 14% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402. Malcolm Turnbull is down four on approval to 51% and up six on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 33% and up three on disapproval to 55%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 61-22 to 54-27. Other findings are that 67% support a royal commission into the banks, with 21% opposed. Also featured are extensive results on the qualities of the two leaders, which are neatly displayed in an interactive graphic at the Financial Review. The live interview phone poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly poll for Roy Morgan, conducted face-to-face and by SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of, is another 50-50, after the Coalition opened up a short-lived 52.5-47.5 lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences – using 2013 election preferences, Labor holds a lead of 51-49, after trailing 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down 1.5% to 40.5%, Labor is up a point to 32%, the Greens are up one to 14%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50”

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  1. briefly

    [ It is now the case that the GG is both appointed by and subject to removal by the delegate of the House. ]

    Aha! I think I see the problem. No, the house cannot remove the PM. Only the Queen can do that.

  2. [ Aha! I think I see the problem. No, the house cannot remove the PM. Only the Queen can do that. ]

    Oops! Should be the house cannot remove the GG!

  8. KMurphy in the Grauniad claiming Malcolm’s excuse today could be that he has the flu. Something he picked up in China, maybe?

  10. Graham Perrett
    7m7 minutes ago
    Graham Perrett ‏@GrahamPerrettMP
    ScoMo: RC into banks bad because there are already cops on the beat. RC into construction good because the actual cops & AFP & ACC are bad.

  11. Asha Leu 322

    I agree with abolishing the GG.
    The referendum model had the President able to call an election and the PM able to sack the President. Constitutional Crisis potential there! Who faxed first?

    A Praesidium with some of the roles of GG and as to fulfil the President of the Senate and Speaker of Reps, is worth considering, like in Germany. It includes a ceremonial President as part of a team.

    In fact maybe a wholesale change, adopt Germany’s Basic Law as amended as a new republican constitution. Use the English translation, crayon out Germany and Crayon in Australia. Tested, workable, more contemporary, designed for a federal republic with PR and single member electorates. Checks, balances, human rights…

  12. [ Will somebody ask where the money for all these ships are coming from? ]

    That will be for ScoMo to deal with as an “on water matter”. 🙂

  14. A Dixer on road safety asks what the Government is doing to help road safety. So far, nothing on doing anything about road safety but bashing the Opposition and the unions. Now he is on to it. Basically, black spots, rest areas and programs, programs, programs. But nothing particularly specific.

  18. Poor ScoMo under pressure getting all shouty and refusing to answer? This does not bode well for his post budget interviews coming up. 🙂

  20. 552
    Player One
    Posted Monday, April 18, 2016 at 2:38 pm | PERMALINK

    At present, the “form” is the GG may be removed on the initiative of the PM. The “substance” is that the monarch will act on the request of the PM.

    These realities need to overlap completely in a republic. There can be no doubt whatsoever about the authority of the delegate of the House.

  21. Hollingsworth is the case in point. He was installed and removed on the advice of the same PM. This power has to be beyond all doubt.

  24. Labor loading up to show the smoking gun on Free Enterprise affair?

    If they are not the LNP must be at least worried they have one.

  25. [ Labor loading up to show the smoking gun on Free Enterprise affair?

    If they are not the LNP must be at least worried they have one. ]

    Now is the time to dick with their heads. 🙂

  27. @576 – Wow… it’s almost like Turnbull is getting enough self-awareness to realise how badly this is all going for him.

  33. briefly @570 & @571:

    [At present, the “form” is the GG may be removed on the initiative of the PM. The “substance” is that the monarch will act on the request of the PM.

    These realities need to overlap completely in a republic. There can be no doubt whatsoever about the authority of the delegate of the House.]

    [Hollingsworth is the case in point. He was installed and removed on the advice of the same PM. This power has to be beyond all doubt.]

    I certainly can’t disagree with any of this. If a future Australian republic were to have a President appointed by parliament, the same parliament should be equally capable of removing said President.

    And it could well be argued that such a system is rather less susceptible to abuse than a direct election model, wherein once the President wins in election, he is safe in his position until his term expires or the next Presidential election is due.

    Sure, if the PM, President and both houses of parliament are all colluding together to subvert democratic processes, then not much can be done to stop them (at least until the next federal elections comes around) – but the same could be said about a situation where the PM, Governor-General, Monarch and both houses of parliament colluded together in the same manner. Hell, even without the British Monarch onside, I think things would have to be pretty damn extreme before the King or Queen would be willing to go against a Commonwealth realm’s Governor-General, Prime Minister, and both democratically elected houses of parliaments.

  34. COTMOMMA – Michaela Cash will be the next leader of the liberal party. It’s obvious. She’s dumb. She’s obnoxious. She’s shallow. She’s got the gig.

  35. It’s not often that I find myself in agreement with Chris Uhlman, but he was absolutely on the money about Stephen Conroy’s dumb comments earlier.

  36. Kevin-17,
    Cash will have to find a Lower House seat and maybe there won’t be too many left in WA after the election? Except maybe Julie Bishop’s ? 😉

  37. Asha Leu,
    Yes, Uhlmann’s comments about the inappropriateness of Conroy’s comments as it pertained to the historical precedents were entirely correct.

  38. MarkDiStef: Ranking of Johnny Depp’s worst acting performances:

    4. The Tourist
    3. Pirates 3
    2. Apology to Australia video
    1. Mordecai

  39. [At present, the “form” is the GG may be removed on the initiative of the PM. The “substance” is that the monarch will act on the request of the PM.]

    It is the Queen who will decide, based on form ut seems unlikely she’d act contrary to the advice of a PM who has the confidence of the house, if there is no person with the confidence of the house, she’d have a word with herself in the form of the GG and no doubt after a lot of ‘if it please your majesty’ or whatever protocol is required of the local boy these days, she’d do what she thinks best. It is a farce.

  40. briefly

    [ Hollingsworth is the case in point. He was installed and removed on the advice of the same PM. This power has to be beyond all doubt. ]

    You are confusing the normal “day to day” replacement of the GG – where of course the Queen would act on the advice of the PM – with a constitutional crisis like the one that occurred in 1975, where she most assuredly would not. While this possibility has never actually been tested, I believe the Queen would not dismiss a GG unless it was clearly non-controversial to do so. And you cannot claim she does not have the power to either ignore completely, or delay acting on, the PM’s advice – she clearly does.

    The reality is that the PM neither appoints nor removes the GG – the Queen does. Solve that issue, and we could be a republic at the drop of a hat. This is what the “minimalist” approach is all about, and is in my opinion the only type of republic that we are ever likely to see in our lifetimes.

  43. srpeatling: I reckon this whole Depp/Heard video is a masterstroke from the DPM as part of his re election campaign. #feelthebarn

  44. [It’s not often that I find myself in agreement with Chris Uhlman, but he was absolutely on the money about Stephen Conroy’s dumb comments earlier.]

    The comments maybe politically dumb in that sheep tut tut, but the GG is supposed to act on the advice of the PM, we have a PM throwing a constitutionally dodgy stunt, and the GG and Lizzy the queen he represents are blessing it with their god ordained blessing of monarchs. It makes a farce of all three, and more importantly (our parliament). It highlights how stupid the idea of the GG and old Lizzy being a check and balance that is useful.

    But for the sheep conroy should have unloaded on the PM for humiliating the GG and old Lizzy with this stunt.

  46. guytaur at 588

    I loved Depp’s performance of someone pretending to actually be serious about Australia’s biosecurity laws but was actually required to make the video to avoid a stiffer sentence for smuggling two small canine pets into Australia. Amber didn’t do too bad either. But Johnny had exactly the right level of barely suppressed ennui, irritation and je ne sais quoi

  48. [It’s not often that I find myself in agreement with Chris Uhlman, but he was absolutely on the money about Stephen Conroy’s dumb comments earlier.]

    Ulhmann will of course make the most out of this, but were it a coalition minister saying similar things it would be all but ignored.

  50. Imacca 568
    Sco Mo ALWAYS shouts. Incapable of considered discussion on ANY topic. Remember the shouting when he was Immig Minister.
    Sign of a guy out of his depth.
    Bit like a tele evangelist.

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