Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50

Now Ipsos joins the 50-50 club, while Newspoll dispenses with the notion that Labor’s lead a fortnight ago was a one-off.

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Hot on the heels of ReachTEL, and ahead of the regular results over the next two days from Roy Morgan and Essential Research, the two biggest media-commissioned polls have been added to the glut that marks today’s resumption of parliament. The three polls so far have sung from very much the same song sheet:

• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll’s latest voting intention result is exactly identical to last time, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 36% and up one point on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is down one on both measures to 31% and 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, narrowing from 48-27 to 47-28. The poll also records 45% saying “the Turnbull led Coalition” would be “most likely to spend responsibly and manage government debt”, compared with 31% for “the Shorten led Labor Party”. Presented with three options for what the priority of the next government should be, 39% opted for “reduce spending to pay down debt”, 26% for “reduce spending to cut taxes” and 23% for “increase spending on government programs”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone polling and online surveying, from a sample of 1628.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers concurs with ReachTEL in having a two-party result of 50-50, after the last poll had the Coalition leading 53-47. Primary votes are Coalition 42% (down three), Labor 33% (up two), Greens 14% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402. Malcolm Turnbull is down four on approval to 51% and up six on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 33% and up three on disapproval to 55%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 61-22 to 54-27. Other findings are that 67% support a royal commission into the banks, with 21% opposed. Also featured are extensive results on the qualities of the two leaders, which are neatly displayed in an interactive graphic at the Financial Review. The live interview phone poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly poll for Roy Morgan, conducted face-to-face and by SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of, is another 50-50, after the Coalition opened up a short-lived 52.5-47.5 lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences – using 2013 election preferences, Labor holds a lead of 51-49, after trailing 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down 1.5% to 40.5%, Labor is up a point to 32%, the Greens are up one to 14%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50”

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  1. davidwh@432

    That attack by Conroy on the GG was just plain stupid but not all that surprising coming from someone like Conroy. The GG has little choice but to agree to a request of the PM where that is consistent with the Constitution.

    Conroy is a bleeding idiot.

    Much as it pains me, I have to agree.

    Conroy’s greatest service to the ALP would be if he did not stand at the next Senate election.

  3. Vic … you know how Dreyfus asked questions about Robert and Brough and they started “refer to my previous answer”?

    Well Morrision was “I’ll refer this to the Spec. Min. of State”

    You know how the Brough & Robert scenario went …

  7. “L-NP in front again as Turnbull shows leadership”
    This was the Morgan headline for the last poll (Libs were 52.5 on 4 April) but now 50-50 today. His leadership didn’t last long.

  8. for the only time in my life, i totally agree with Barnaby Joyce. Those two should have had to do a walk of shame (sans dogs, it is not the pooches fault their owners are selfish dicks) down the main street of sydney wearing sackcloth and ashes. Putting our domestic, farm and wildlife animals at risk, shame on them. and well done barnaby, if only the once in his life.

    Depp and his handbag can pee off back to the rabies infested dump they came from.

  10. TPOF

    Got to hand it to Joyce he made the Simpsons look the true amateurs they are in portraying Aussie stereotypes.

    More to come with 4:15 presser from Joyce

  13. Puff

    I agree that Joyce was right in this one. Like a lot of others I can see the funny side of that video.

    The humour meme will mean more will see it overseas as it becomes clickbait

  15. With only the Budget left for the Government to leverage some popular support, it appers that this election will be won or lost during the campaign.

    I suspect it will be akin to those World War 1 to and fros across the muddied battle fields of Flanders. It’s certainly not going to be pretty.

  16. Question @602:

    [Morgan Appears to have joined the 50-50 club although the full results aren’t up yet. See in the right margin…

    http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll?to=b6912c8233db485c8b66c63cfa57447c%5D

    Oh dear. 😀

    If Essential stays on its usual steady course, its looking like we will see Labor record its first (albiet slight) Bludgertrack lead since Turnbull became PM.

    I wonder if anyone still thinks Turnbull’s tenure will end up being longer than Menzies’?

  19. So, beginning their sitting for “special people” the polls are all at 50/50 or worse for the Libs. Definitively game on and far better than the forces of goodness and light had any expectation for a couple of months ago.

    Now, do we hear the press doing Liberal # leadershit, “for doGs sake will someone save the marble topped tables!!” thing??? 🙂

  21. AL, 616

    Can’t remember if it was last week, but a recent Essential looked a bit kind to the L-NP on primary recently. It will probably stay on 50-50 Anyway (and if it was last week will wash out by next week) 🙂

  25. At the moment it looks like ABC is the only online news website giving prominence to Conroy and the GG. Even Murdoch is restrained.

  30. That is some lateral thinking doing the biosecurity video but $50,000 fine would hardly be excessive.

    Maybe the next “ordinary folk” pleading guilty to a significant crime can make a contrition video.

  34. Alan Joyce won’t be thanking Turnbull for this:

    [Qantas shares have plunged after the airline and its low-cost spin-off, Jetstar, said it was cutting back planned flights on domestic routes in response to reduced demand from Australians worried about the economy and the upcoming election.

    Qantas shares tumbled 14 per cent to be at $3.49 at midday, AEST, before recovering slightly to $3.58 at 12.30pm – down 11.8 per cent. ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-cut-back-flights-in-face-of-falling-demand-and-confidence-20160418-go8pfc.html#ixzz469kPHZpv

  35. [I know it is only Morgan.]

    Obviously the last Morgan was a counter-intuitive dud, but otherwise it’s confirming all the others. It agrees with Newspoll, that using last election preference flows, the TPP is ALP 51-49.

    Morgan was the first to put the ALP ahead, but that was 50.5 (by both preference flow measures).

  36. _AdamTodd: Bill Shorten has spoken with Stephen Conroy, describing his GG comments as “intemperate and unnecessary”.

  37. BK

    I saw Nick Minchin use a similar line on #QandA a few years ago, followed by a cheese eating grin as if he expected the audience to pee itself laughing at his joke.

    The grin soon evaporated when the audience booed him. Then he went into damage control and, as they so often do, dug himself an even deeper hole.

    Utterly disgraceful from both Minchin and Leyonhjelm.

  38. Good thinking Bill. Scotch the Conroy stuff immediately
    well done!

    But Jeepers do we let this guy negotiate!!!!!!!!!

  39. I also have no issues with Barnaby Joyce’s handling of the War on Terrier, apart from some quibbles about his grandstanding. But then, that’s what politicians of all stripes do. Our biosecurity laws are important and apply to everyone, even big Hollywood stars who arrive by private jet.

  41. AB … Morgan’s last three TPP results on last election preferences are 49.5, 51.5, 49 to LNP – hardly a wild fluctuation, all within 1.5% of the mean, which is well within a reasonable MOE for the sample size.

  42. [GG @615

    With only the Budget left for the Government to leverage some popular support, it appers that this election will be won or lost during the campaign.]

    Yeah, I’m not sure the budget can help. The CPG went dizzy from blowing smoke up the arse of Hockey’s 2nd Budget, especially the lead up, but a few weeks after it came down all the puff went out of it.

  43. Lol lol lol, my daily tax email from my friends at KPMG has today’s feature article on super written by none other than Paul Howe, Partner, Head of Wealth Management. I’m pretty sure it is Paul Howes, not Howe, the former union guy.

  45. Katherine Murphy – good point:

    [One broader observation worth making, I think: it’s interesting how much the government feels it has to rally the base right at the moment. Look at this whole foray over owner-drivers. Those folks aren’t Labor folks – they are rusted on Coalition people. This isn’t a big pre-election pitch to swinging voters and marginal seats, it’s about keeping their own people in the cart. So are the industrial bills. Thumping the table about the CFMEU is about feel good for the Liberal party base, rallying against the totemic enemy. Again it’s not a pitch to the centre/swinging voter. It’s about keeping the conservative base bushy-tailed before everyone leaps over the trenches after the budget.

    Now, why would that be?]

  46. [Now, why would that be?]

    K17, we only have to put on our waders and walk a few steps into Bolt’s bog to know “why that be” 🙂

  47. Has Bluey delivered his diagnosis of today’s events yet, or is this a public holiday for cephalopods?

    Or has he downed tools in solidarity with the hard working trucking companies who’ll be rooned if they have to pay truckies a decent wage?

  48. On ABC TV breakfast they were congratulating Depp for making the effort to come over and face the court… “good on him!”

    This from people who know bloody well the value of rolled gold free publicity.

  50. Conroy, if presented with a clear run to the line or an easy shot at goal, would prefer to put the ball down and squirrel grip his opponent instead.

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