Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50

Now Ipsos joins the 50-50 club, while Newspoll dispenses with the notion that Labor’s lead a fortnight ago was a one-off.

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Hot on the heels of ReachTEL, and ahead of the regular results over the next two days from Roy Morgan and Essential Research, the two biggest media-commissioned polls have been added to the glut that marks today’s resumption of parliament. The three polls so far have sung from very much the same song sheet:

• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll’s latest voting intention result is exactly identical to last time, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 36% and up one point on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is down one on both measures to 31% and 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, narrowing from 48-27 to 47-28. The poll also records 45% saying “the Turnbull led Coalition” would be “most likely to spend responsibly and manage government debt”, compared with 31% for “the Shorten led Labor Party”. Presented with three options for what the priority of the next government should be, 39% opted for “reduce spending to pay down debt”, 26% for “reduce spending to cut taxes” and 23% for “increase spending on government programs”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone polling and online surveying, from a sample of 1628.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers concurs with ReachTEL in having a two-party result of 50-50, after the last poll had the Coalition leading 53-47. Primary votes are Coalition 42% (down three), Labor 33% (up two), Greens 14% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402. Malcolm Turnbull is down four on approval to 51% and up six on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 33% and up three on disapproval to 55%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 61-22 to 54-27. Other findings are that 67% support a royal commission into the banks, with 21% opposed. Also featured are extensive results on the qualities of the two leaders, which are neatly displayed in an interactive graphic at the Financial Review. The live interview phone poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly poll for Roy Morgan, conducted face-to-face and by SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of, is another 50-50, after the Coalition opened up a short-lived 52.5-47.5 lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences – using 2013 election preferences, Labor holds a lead of 51-49, after trailing 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down 1.5% to 40.5%, Labor is up a point to 32%, the Greens are up one to 14%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50”

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  2. Qanda panel tonight

    Tonight’s Panel
    Ewen Jones – Liberal MP for Herbert and Government Whip
    Alannah MacTiernan – Shadow Parliamentary Sec. for Regional Development
    John Hewson – Former leader of the Liberal Party
    Caroline Overington – Writer and journalist
    Jane Caro – Author and social commentator

  3. Asha @ 494

    I agree re Conroy and the GG. Ironically, once the hubbub had died down, he was able to go on about the Government and Turnbull (and not the GG) proroguing parliament and bringing it back. Technically it was not correct, but nobody in the government was in a position to argue that the GG had exercised his power in a political, rather than a conventional, way.

    That said, it really won’t register much. People don’t know about him much. It’s incredible how little many people know about who is in Parliament and what they do and say.

  4. guytaur,

    You’ve gone all GG on us at 493.

    You praise a bloke. But,it’s actually Stephanie Peatling!

  5. vic,
    I heard Caroline Overington was Deputy Editor of The Australian, when she was on The Drum the other day. This should be made plain by the ABC.

  6. briefly@498

    Well said. It is in fact the reason that Keating was highlighting by his statement about choosing a head of state.

    Until we choose our own head of state we are not a true self determining country. We have a system that was imposed on us by the British Parliament.

    This is the next logical step in our devolution from the UK and the only real question is how long its going to take.

    That’s why the Duke of Edinburgh was surprised by the referendum result he a royal thinks its inevitable and would come as soon as the people were asked.

  9. Conroy is a disgrace and an embarrassment to Labor. Why do they put up with this sort of garbage in their ranks?

    The GG acts on the advice of his PM and Ministers.

    Kristine Keneally did something similar in NSW when she was Premier.

    Completely cynical, I know, but within the Constitution.

  10. [We only need the one precedent.]

    The only precedent that a future GG (or President) will take from 1975 is to do what Kerr did is a sure way to be hounded from office and die despised by a great proportion of the population and distanced by those who benefitted from his actions.

  12. Sounds like a plan

    [Rowan
    8m8 minutes ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    Get ready for a #QT full of dixers on ‘ how will shipbuilding help jobs & growth ‘ That’s what the rehashed announcement was about]

  13. I do know one Tory voter who has no time for Turnbull and Labor and says she’ll be voting for X’s candidate rather than Pyne this time. Her son has similar views.

    Wonder where their preferences will be going?

  17. LaborHerald: Why won’t the PM join with Labor & commit to a royal commission to restore & rebuild trust in the Oz banking sector?” @billshortenmp #auspol

  18. WWP @ 499 & briefly @ 500

    I’m afraid I don’t understand either of your posts. All we need to make this work is a mechanism to elect and dismiss GGs that is not at the whim of the Federal government, but not as onerous as direct election. That is all I am proposing. The powers of the GG would remain unchanged.

  19. workmanalice: Dastyari – can you confirm 8 Coalton backbenchers wants a royal commission incuding my good friend Senator Williams? #SenateQT

  21. [I can’t bring myself to watch any more of QT after the first two minutes.]

    I haven’t been able to watch it the last couple of years it’s so bad!

  22. And right on cue

    [Stephanie Anderson
    8s8 seconds ago
    Stephanie Anderson ‏@stephanieando
    And the PM gets the first dixer on jobs and growth, giving him a chance to talk on his defence spend announcement #auspol #qt]

  23. BK

    You can see the questions asked by Labor at their Herald. At news sites they have live blogs so you can follow without immersing yourself in the full circus 🙂

  24. Talk about selective blindness in that answer from Turnbull to Bill Shorten’s question about a Banks RC.

    He has had to go back to 2012 to get a quote from Shorten praising the Regulators and then he just ignores the scandals that have erupted since then!

  25. There has been no repetition of the events of 1975, or even a threat of it, because when Labor has been in Government since then (1983-1996 and 2007-2013), the Opposition has never been able to muster a majority in the Senate at a time when Labor has been trailing badly in the polls.

    In the period 2008-2011, there were 37 Coalition Senators, one FF, 37 Labor plus Greens and one X. The Right had 38 votes, enough to block legislation. I don’t doubt that had Rudd’s popularity collapsed in 2008 or 2009, the Opposition (with the support of FF’s Stephen Fielding) would have engineered a 1975-style crisis. After all, the punters in a fit of ‘absent-mindedness’ had accidentally turfed their natural masters.

    I expect that Supply will again be rejected within a few months of ‘reprehensible and extrordinary circumstances’* recurring. 1975 solved nothing.

    * ‘extraordinary and reprehensible’ = Labor in Government, Government trails in the polls, the Right can muster a Senate majority or blocking vote

  29. So, have there been any Question Times this parliamentary term where the members for Wakefield and Griffith haven’t been warned?

  33. David Marin-Guzman
    ‏@dmaguz

    Muir says ABCC should tackle sham contracting and underpayments in building industry – as FWBC used to do before 2014.

  35. 518
    Player One

    PO, if you want the House of Representatives to be the place where Governments are made, where both legislative and executive initiative originate, then this chamber must be able to assert itself in relation to the GG. It is now the case that the GG is both appointed by and subject to removal by the delegate of the House. Were this to change, the GG would be more powerful than House – more powerful than the chamber that is democratically-answerable. Yet the GG would not be democratically-answerable. This would be to make the system less democratic. We should not adopt a change that appears to be “more republican” but which is also less democratic.

    We have to place the House of Representatives at the centre of our system. Its power may be checked by other organs, for sure. But it may not be tipped out – be subject to dissolution – by other Constitutional figures. This means the GG and the Senate may not either singly or in combination create a position where they can procure the dissolution of the House or prevent their own dissolution or dismissal. This is the absolute pre-condition for parliamentary democracy.

  36. I love watching the most ludicrous Ministers with the sound off. That way the noise does not distract from the utter confected ludicrousness of their body language.

  39. LaborHerald: ScoMo says that an election is “a month or two” away before trying to cover up his slip up #auspol

  45. gt

    [Looks like Telstra is backing away from its backing away on marriage equality. ]

    If I was a shareholder I be writing to them saying ‘How about sticking to running a telecommunications company’.

  47. srpeatling: Not sure the govt’s traducing of royal commissions wd be welcomed by ppl involved in the Royal Commission into child sexual abuse.

  48. Turnbull pretty good at disrespecting Royal Commissions. Bit hard to diss Royal Commissions while trying to defend the Heydon Witch Hunt (royal commission).

  50. Turnbull talking about action on qtime. Unemployment very high in my electorate and the new Nats elected guy ran big on employment. Absolutely nothing has happened over 2 and a half years. Businesses closing down everywhere and St Vinnies doing a roaring trade.He talks about ” Action”. Tell that to all the unemployed or underemployed in my electorate which has been in recession mode for years. Geez they can lie and some stupid people believe them. Mindbogling

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