UPDATE (4/4/16): Now Essential Research has state voting intention results (excluding Tasmania), which are compiled, Newspoll-style, from an aggregation of its regular surveying between January and March. The results broadly concur with Morgan’s in the three biggest states, with the Coalition leading 56-44 in New South Wales, and Labor leading 53-47 in both Victoria and Queensland. However, the Western Australian result is more favourable to the Liberal-National government, which is created with a lead of 52-48 (a particularly stark contrast with a ReachTEL poll conducted a fortnight ago showing Labor ahead 56-44), and the South Australian result is more favourable to Labor, who lead 54-46, and less favourable to the Nick Xenophon Team, which is at 15%. Sample sizes were rather large, ranging from 803 in South Australia to 3220 in New South Wales.
Roy Morgan has unloaded its monthly batch of SMS polling on state voting intention, and just as its other such polls in recent months found conservatives surging in tandem with their federal counterparts, so has the pendulum swung back amid softening support for Malcolm Turnbull. The Coalition government’s seemingly permanent lead in New South Wales remains intact, but this month’s reading of 55-45 isn’t quite as imposing as last month’s 59.4-40.5. The lead for the Labor government in Victoria is out from 53.5-46.5 to 55-45, its counterpart in Queensland has reversed a 52-48 deficit last time out, and it’s back to level pegging in South Australia after the Liberals led 53-47 a month ago – although the big news here remains the Nick Xenophon Team, which with 24% of the primary vote (up 3.5%) is mixing it with both Liberal (down 5.5% to 30%) and Labor (unchanged at 27%). For those who care to follow the link, there’s also a small sample result from Tasmania which, as usual, looks far too favourable for Labor. The polling was conducted last Monday to Thursday, from samples ranging from 648 in South Australia to 1116 in New South Wales.
Then there’s Western Australia, where the result (from 603 respondents) doesn’t quite replicate the 55-45 lead to Labor recorded by ReachTEL a fortnight ago, but still has them drawing ahead 52-48 after a hard-to-credit result of 54.5-44.5 to the Coalition a month ago. With the election now less than a year away, I’ve taken the trouble to put together a poll aggregate derived from Newspoll, Morgan and a few stray results from ReachTEL and Essential Research. The current output from the model has Labor leading 52.4-47.6 (compared with 57.3-42.7 at the election), from primary votes of Labor 38.8% (up from 31.1%), Liberal 36.7% (down from 47.1%), Nationals 6.1% (steady) and Greens 13.1% (up from 8.4%). It should be noted that the first poll in late 2013 came well after the government’s re-election in March, and most of the Liberals’ lead had already worn away by that point.
The primary vote chart has the Liberals in blue, Labor in red, the Greens in dark green and the Nationals in cyan. Bias adjustments have been applied to the sometimes wayward Morgan poll by benchmarking it against a trend measure of the other pollsters. The two-party results allocate three-quarters of Greens preferences and one quarter of Nationals preferences to Labor, with “others” determined through a function that causes a party’s share to rise in accordance with its overall share of the major party vote, so that Labor’s share is now at 43% compared with 33% at the election. Newspoll’s quarterly results – the next of which should be with us very shortly – have been broken into three and distributed as monthly results over the period of the poll.