The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.
I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.
Davidwh,
Haha, we all get there mate.
Im only 30 so not too many wrinkles or grey hair yet but having 3 young kids, a physically exhausting job and the stress of being ‘picked’ on by the grammar and spelling Nazis here i’m sure it is not far off.
Colton
I confess I’m not a fan of tatts but they’re getting so universal that the other day when I saw a man’s arm completely unadorned except for – gasp – hair, I almost became sentimental.
[The difference I think comes down to those in the ALP like myself who accept that sometimes politics is not a zero sum game.
In my opinion often you need to put aside the perfect and ideal outcome for small, incremental and achievable results.
This leaves you open to accusations of selling out or having a willingness to compromise your beliefs by those who would rather aim for the sometimes unachievable perfect outcome and will settle for nothing if they can not get it all.]
Couldn’t agree more Colton!
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 5:29 pm | PERMALINK
Libs issue a statement.
Translation: I deny that I robbed the little old lady and if I did, it was the fault of somebody else.
[Player One
Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 5:16 pm | Permalink
Marrickville Mauler
All, clearly heroic men, were firmly of the view that the raids they and their peers were involved in were now rightly regarded as war crimes. (Dresden obviously, but the Dambusters operation too – targeting of essential infrastructure and the inevitable drowning of downstream civilians)
It is frightening to think that if there is ever another Hitler or another world war, it seems likely the side that insists on upholding all the modern ‘conventions of war’ is going to lose :(]
It is an interesting proposition. Pretty well all sides eschewed gas warfare in WW2. OTOH. All sides routinely committed war crimes using submarines. All sides, when they could do so, slaughtered large number of civilians from the air. However, not all sides routinely slaughtered large numbers of civilians on the ground. Being taken prisoner could be a chancy business if you were a German. It was much less chancy if you were allied, particularly early in the war. Very few Japanese surrendered and of those, a lot were murdered anyway. Rape in war was normal for Germans in Russia and for Russians in Germany but not for Germans in Western Europe. It was also normal for the Japanese in China and elsewhere.
IMO, apart from submarines, which could not possibly operate according to the rules of war, it would be fair to say that all the other war crimes made little or no difference to war outcomes.
GG
Thanks for posting. I found that statement by the libs pretty weird. A lot of words saying nothing except ‘what are you fussing for? That was years ago.’.
Colton@396
Both of you are OK and I value your contributions as I am sure most others do.
When I was at school I did not appreciate subjects like English as much as I should have. I was oriented to maths and science and the rest just got in the way.
Later I realised how wrong I was and that it is important even for people in the STEM occupations to be able to communicate effectively. Not just in a technically correct way, but to be able to speak and write with passion and convincingly.
I will still be trying to improve until my final day.
dave
I will pass your thanks along to Bluey.
Player One @351
You have a PhD in hyperbole. Conservative parties are do not work to dismantle or neuter them – there is no real world evidence of that occurring here in Australia or in Western democracies.
Conservative parties do believe in social safety nets but are realistic in making them economically sustainable and fair. They should be a hand up and not a hand out. The aim of welfare should be to enable one to become not reliant on welfare. Only in the most intractable cases should it be for life and that is one of the fundamental reasons for supporting the NDIS – to deliver appropriate permanent, effective long term support in an efficient manner – getting best value for the beneficiary and the tax payer.
citizen,
You can’t prove nothing!
Compact Crank@409
Fancy words to disguise inaction.
The best way to make welfare sustainable is to minimise the number of unemployed by ensuring macro-economic policy promotes full employment.
lizzie,
So they were crooks then.
Are they crooks now?
If the voters don’t watch out Turnbull will get sick of them and just walk away. At this point, try raking through the memory to the days of Abbott v Shorten, because that’s what awaits. And it won’t be Shorten who wins.
bemused
[I do not think of you as on the left of as a greens voter. I place you towards the right of the ALP.
I have no time but I think I will refine my voter compass and maybe we could all actually analyse who we are and where we are.]
You’re judged as feral.
You’re lost in the 70’s but not feral.
Lizzie,
That is so true.
A lot of the younger lads i work with have the full sleeves, neck tattoo etc.
I was never into tattoos when I was a kid but got my first one when I was 19 after my mum died in honour of her.
I then became pretty addicted to them and now have what most people would consider a lots.
My favourite one apart from my kids names on my chest is the one on my back that has the line from the Midnight Oils song ‘The Power and the Passion’-
It is better to die on your feet than live on your knees.
I often get compliments from people about my tatts.
I think people like them because they all have meaning to me and they are all extremely well done.
No dodgy Bali tatts for me.
All of mine have been well designed and well thought through, I have never rushed in to get one so generally have no regrets about getting them.
If you were to speak to my partner though she would bore you to tears talking about her dislike of most of my tatts except the ones with our kids names.
Also, apart from the one done for my mum which was deliberately designed to cover the birthmark on my forearm my tattoos are all covered if I am wearing a shirt.
DisplayName @390 I am not overly concerned about my errors as I know they will be pointed out to me no matter how trivial. Even the fact that I was actually posting here was an error the other day – fortunately William was good enough to disabuse them.
En Quiry
[If the voters don’t watch out Turnbull will get sick of them and just walk away]
You think he’s that big a sook?
Cranky
[ there is no real world evidence of that occurring here in Australia or in Western democracies. ]
Have you tried to apply for any Centrelink benefits recently?
[ Conservative parties do believe in social safety nets but are realistic in making them economically sustainable and fair. ]
And profitable! Taken a look at the technical education sector recently?
To add to my own post …
[ And profitable! Taken a look at the technical education sector recently? ]
Or the government funded employment agencies? They are an utter shambles and a joke. They often don’t even pretend to be able to find you a job.
CTar1@414
Referring to me or DTT who wrote that?
[Translation: I deny that I robbed the little old lady and if I did, it was the fault of somebody else.]
I would add…
[and it was six years ago, like, so, u know, yeah but it doesnt matter none no more does it?].
lizzie@406
Yep, but in addition this bit –
“I have written to the commission seeking their assistance in resolving any areas of uncertainty”
Is pretty bloody cheeky.
They are trying to throw it back onto the commission.
The commission just want them to comply with the law. Failure to do so 6 years down the track is why funding is being withheld.
Simon Kasich@421
while you are here Simon, what prompted the change from Katich?
Thanks to everyone for a thoroughly enjoyable chat today.
Off to netball training with my Daughter.
Think I might sit in the car and practice my use of should’ve, could’ve’ would’ve. 🙂
Cheers.
Colton@424
Quite easy really. 😀
Enjoy the netball.
Colton
[my tattoos are all covered if I am wearing a shirt.]
Thank goodness for small mercies 😆
I confess that if were in bed with a heavily tattooed man I would feel that there was another person beside us watching me. Spooky.
Boerwar @305
I generally agree with most of your post however I disagree with two specific elements.
The Germans did do lots of raping and other war crimes in Western Europe. I’m surprised the Belgians and Dutch even let Germans in their countries after the double experiences of WWI and WWII.
I also believe that the war crimes by the Germans in Poland, Ukraine and Russia definitely impacted the viciousness of the Russian treatment of Germany.
The Allied Bombing campaign is called by some a war crime but it is clear that it did have a positive impact on the outcome of the war for the Allies.
I like that they are laughing it off as being 6 years ago … I mean so long ago to remember thousands and thousands of $$$$ … I remember PM Julia Gillard was supposed to adequately remember a letter that there was no evidence for from more than 20 years ago
Bemused, dont know what you are talking about.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33209
Feeney@199
[Of course, we have OPV in Queensland elections, State and Federal, thanks to Peter Beattie playing funny games. That fact undoubtedly hurt Labor and will continue to do so.]
Wow! I though all Federal voting was CPV.
bemused @411
Don’t tell me – you’re a Keynesian. Hurray.
The Micro makes the Macro. The rule of law enabling efficient and fair commerce and trade. Profits generate investment and sustainable employment. Regulations and tax policy are critical to enabling profits to occur.
CC @ 416
It’s when we stop correcting you that you should worry – that maybe you’ve slipped a bit to the left ;).
😉
I have a tenner on Kasich to be the Repug nominee. Riding it home with a name change.
Simon Kasich@429
Several people noted yesterday I think that your name used to display as Simon Katich, but now it is Simon Kasich.
Or are there two of you sharing the same Gravatar?
[my spelling and grammar is shocking]
I’m not going to say it 😀
“Does this mean that the serial stuffups and clusterf*cks are just a means of stifling Labor policy announcements?”
Considering Malcolm’s political judgement so far, this is entirely plausible.
Player One @419 – The Rudds don’t think so – thank you very much to the Taxpayers of Australia and the UK. A very nice earner. Strange how the ALP supporters were so quiet about the system for so long.
Simon Kasich encourages responsible gambling. If you have a gambling habit and want to give up, call 1800 858 858.
Compact Crank@432
So you are one of those throwbacks to the nineteenth century? Say’s Law and all that?
Diog
😀
D&M, 431
You’re right, it is (it’s legislated at a federal level anyway, Beattie couldn’t have legislated on it) – I think feeney might have meant state and local elections.
Simon Kasich@439
I only ever bet on sure things. 😉
I look forward to the unions having all their donors details made public.
jenauthor@428
Yep – again they expect different rules.
I hope they drag this out, but either way it is all more damage to them – just when they need clear air.
Hopefully abbott is winging his way back from the UK and planning more mischief.
Moah!
Bemused. I changed it weeks ago.
bemused – Monetarist/Neo-Classical actually.
Compact Crank@444
Many thousands of small donations well under any disclosure limit.
Evening all,catching up on posts today one suggestion re Blue’s excellent bulletin @325, change ‘disgruntled’ right to right ‘malcontents’.
Also re WW II bomber crews, remember Gorton’s response after a bad day in parliament wtte
[
Pressure, you don’t know pressure until you have had a messerschermidt up your arse
]
Simon Kasich@446
And no-one noticed until a couple of days ago. 😀