The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.
I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.
Interesting! From the Oz:
[
We’ve done wrong on donors: Baird
Mike Baird says Liberal Party must reveal the details of political donors hidden through Free Enterprise Foundation.]
So the Libs are going to talk to the AEC about “any uncertainty” regarding donations etc.
What a mob of slimey cnuts they are.
The only uncertainty, you morons, is about the actual names of the illegal donors, that you are refusing to hand over.
And “it was 6 years ago”. Clearly the fool who wrote that is dead ignorant and thinks that crimes disappear over time, or thinks the AEC guys are dead ignorant and can be easily conned.
How wonderful it would be if this became the fatal issue for PollyWaffle, right at the beginning and throughout his campaign.
Compact Crank@447
OK, ‘Flat Earth’ economics.
John Reidy@449
Keith Miller the cricketer said that.
bemused @448 I’m keen to see all the companies that are paying off the unions with the “training” services etc.
[ Many thousands of small donations well under any disclosure limit. ]
crank is just trying “Look over there”.
But the AEC is being pretty clear – atm anyway –
[ The Electoral Commission said that as of yesterday, the Liberal Party would receive no further public funding, saying it had not sufficiently responded to the Commission questions since February.
“The party will remain ineligible until it discloses all reportable donations in relation to its 2011 declaration.” ]
The public funding is one thing – the damage to brand tory is priceless.
Popcorn!
Unions are allowed to donate. The High Court has said a law restraining from doing so is invalid.
Developers are not allowed to donate. The High Court said a law restraining them from doing so is valid.
The NSW government could repeal the law banning developer donations but have not done so.
Compact Crank@455
The companies are free to disclose that.
Bemused.
I only bet on rank outsiders. Which is why I very rarely do it.
The odds were ridiculous back then. I could see (and was posting) that he was in with a real shot so I put my money where my mouth was.
It was looking good there for a while too, but now Rubio seems likely to back Cruz and the Establishment wont forgive Kasich for signing on to expanding medicaid, I am losing hope.
Citizen #451
Did Baird actually name the Free Enterprise Foundation?
If he did, since it is a Fed Lib organ, then Baird has openly implicated the Feds.
Let’s see PollyWaffle and Brandis argue that it’s specifically a state issue now.
At minimum, the Free Enterprise Foundation is NSW Libs’ “bagman”.
Belgian counter-terrorism seems to be on a par with Australia’s.
Simon Kasich@459
And I only bet on sure things which is why I do it rarely as I don’t come across many.
So those close to me know never to accept any bet I offer as I must be very certain of what I am backing. 😀
Kasich is the only one among them who could pass a sanity test.
Cruz is more dangerous than Trump IMHO. A very nasty piece of work.
[And no-one noticed until a couple of days ago]
I am hurt. But ok. It was a very small change. Unlike your puppy dog gravatar.
GG noticed.
[ Thanks for posting. I found that statement by the libs pretty weird. A lot of words saying nothing except ‘what are you fussing for? That was years ago.’. ]
I took that statement as “yeah, we dun it and we apologised now move on and forget it”.
So, whats the story when they do identify the donors and are found to actually have been laundering funds from prohibited donors through Federally linked “foundations”? It wont be consequence free.
[295
daretotread
Briefly
I do not think you understand what left and right wing mean.]
You may imagine you comprehend the distinction. But you’d be wrong about that. There is nothing left-wing about any party that sets out to frustrate the election of Labor Governments, no matter what they may say of themselves, no matter the excuses and pretexts they may offer.
The protection of the interests of working people, the pursuit of equality and the processes of institutional renewal are the work of Labor. Those voices that set out to thwart Labor also set out to obstruct this work. It’s not difficult to figure out who are the voices of obstruction in Australia.
psyclaw@460
I don’t know about Baird naming it, but it has been named all over the place.
The Federal Lib organisational wing is obviously deeply implicated. Now what Fed Lib pollies serve on any committees or hold any Fed office?
shellbell @457 You have summed up the stupidity of the situation in a nutshell.
Thanks bemused @454 you are correct, however I am sure Gorton said something similar, I’ll check.
Simon Kasich@463
Keeping the gravatar is probably what fooled most of us.
Bemused,
that is very kind of you.
Simon Kasich@463
Oh… I have never had a puppy dog gravatar.
When was your last eye test? Your optical prescriptions seems to need an update. 😀
John Reidy@468
May have quoted it.
John Reidy@#449:
That was Miller, not Gorton.
[Oh… I have never had a puppy dog gravatar.]
You jest. You know very well your last Rodin Thinker was the spitting image of a small grey Maltese poodle.
The story in the Oz about Baird has this address or google “We’ve done wrong on donors: Baird”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/arthur-sinodinos-must-go-over-donor-secrecy-alp/news-story/446b5743dde2f65b71b9c5b814793bbf
Simon Kasich@474
Any dog that looked like that should be put down.
[ Developers are not allowed to donate. The High Court said a law restraining them from doing so is valid. ]
shellbell, on this matter, how likely do you think it is for the issue of conspiracy to arise??
I mean, technically, what they did may or may not be actually illegal??
It doesn’t mean it will play as anything other than toxic politically. If not illegal its certainly fwarking dodgy and a REALLY bad look for Sinodinos given the Sydney Water stuff. I cant see Turnbull getting any benefit out of trying to defend Sinodinos in any way over this.
Compact Crank@467
He did a pretty good summary below as well – talking about those same laws –
shellbell@353 on Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition | The Poll Bludger
briefly @465 Bollocks. WA is a great example of conservative governments doing great work for all Australians and in particular working class Australians. It was the work of Sir Charles Court (opposed by the ALP) that opened up the Pilbara’s Iron Ore and Oil and Gas resources to Japan and the world for the massive growth that it has contributed so much to Australia and WA and which has benefited so many West Australians and Australians both directly and indirectly. It was the work of his son that developed the Chinese interests that kept things going. Decades of visits and networking and facilitating to enable the massive projects that saved us during the GFC.
I think it is pretty evident that upon the developer laws coming into force, the Foundation did one of several things:
(a) did not notice;
(b) thought, fuck it, we are a discretionary trust that can receive monies from anyone and pass on in a pseudo independent way;
(c) thought, bugger it, no will ever know or care;
(d) thought, stuff it, some developer will challenge it in the High Court and win;
(e) thought, patience, the government might repeal it.
To understand the nonsense of the Foundation you have to read the demolition ICAC did on it trustees and the lobbyists who gave evidence in Operation Credo or Spicer.
Diogenes @461 Wrong. The Belgians are a diabolical mess when it comes to Law Enforcement and internal intelligence. We are a model of efficiency compared to them.
The good guys need to be right all the time, every time. The bad guys just have to get lucky once.
Carry on, dave
shellbell@482
I’m rather enjoying the tory carry on, atm.
All of this makes it harder for the NSW tories to clip the wings of ICAC – I’m sure they are lined up to do so but know they will pay a huge price if they do.
Just because the HCoA has upheld the anti-developer laws for NSW doesn’t mean that they aren’t stupid and discriminatory and a direct attack on the political rights of individuals and the right to freedom of association. If they were applied against Unions, Social Justice or Eco groups then there’d be all hell to pay – but because the Left don’t like “Rich” people it is all ok and yay for the HCoA. You freaking hypocrites.
Someone asked about the name “agrarian socialist” being applied to the National Party and its ilk.
I think such AS are those who decry any support for those less well off (because they are lazy or stupid – “Get off your bums and get a job” types) but are the first to put out their hands any government money in this bush to help them.
When dairy farmers were having a hard time of it years ago, the said farmers, through their Country Party clout, worked out that if kids had a third of a pint of milk a day at school – subsidised of course by the government of the day – then their income was assured. In other words a handy subsidy and/or hand out. Of course, such a policy was seen as a social plus despite the dubious value of the programme.
As well, and has been demonstrated over and again, through the likes of Royalties for Regions, the local WA Nationals are political harlots. At the moment they are holding the Libs to ransom over the sale of Freo port – and come the next election, if the Libs flounder, will again offer their used body to anyone willing to form a coalition with them.
Not only are this lot rural socialists but first class opportunists who leave the Greens for dust in this department of politics.
dave
[All of this makes it harder for the NSW tories to clip the wings of ICAC – I’m sure they are lined up to do so but know they will pay a huge price if they do]
Only the throwbacks like Tudehope, Khan etc – ICAC will continue substantially unchanged
ABC The Drum @ABCthedrum 1h1 hour ago
Dr Phil Orchard: “We haven’t found a linkage between refugee flows & the terrorist attacks” #thedrum #Brussels
Racism is live and well in Australia, maybe Unions should punish this worker and his boss…
ABC The Drum @ABCthedrum 1h1 hour ago
Finally, is this the Australian version of the Croydon man who enraged the internet? #BrusselsAttacks #TheDrum
[ Diogenes
Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 6:06 pm | Permalink
my spelling and grammar is shocking
I’m not going to say it 😀
]
my spelling and grammar are shocking? No that is not right; come on give me a hint.
Compact Crank@484
It means you need to obey the law.
Fail to do so at your peril.
The tories have tried all the tricks – except obey the law.
If the law is so bad – change it!
All very delicious to see them damaging brand tory.
Keep it is coming.
shellbell @486 After the debacles of the Cunheen affair and the SES fellow I can’t see how it can be allowed to continue as is.
[but because the Left don’t like “Rich” people. You freaking hypocrites.]
You freakin generalist.
[The good guys need to be right all the time, every time. The bad guys just have to get lucky once.]
That is rubbish wasn’t Monis or whatever his name lucky about 30 times before he wandered into the cafe?
And my bet is you know absolutely nothing about security in Belgium but inexplicably feel entitled to make rubbish up.
Protecting themselves again, no different to Abbott:
David Lipson @davidlipson 12m12 minutes ago
Turnbull: My understanding is that Arthur Sinodinos has said he was not aware (of secret donations) and done so at ICAC hearings @Lateline
shellbell
[ ICAC will continue substantially unchanged ]
Excellent.
imacca
I don’t think anyone will be seeing the big house because of electoral funding cheating but ICAC’s great work has bolstered the fortitude electoral commission big time (plus having a very heavy weight in Keith Mason QC at the helm).
WWP @492 You don’t have to believe what I say about the Belgians – perhaps do some research on public open source material on the arcane arrangements and inefficiencies that exist in the Belgian Policing and Security services yourself.
Cranky
[ Player One @419 – The Rudds don’t think so – thank you very much to the Taxpayers of Australia and the UK. A very nice earner. Strange how the ALP supporters were so quiet about the system for so long. ]
There’s more than one reason Rudd lost his job. Like Abbott, he should never have been made PM in the first place. Just shows that both sides make mistakes, and doesn’t have much bearing on your argument.
Re the Fibs Foundation, if I remember correctly many in here were going on quite a bit about it when Arfur was before ICAC. During his memory lapses there was a lot mentioned about the Central Coast Fibs.
If my memory serves me correctly again I believe there were quotes from a certain candidate who was running against Craig Thomson bragging about how much money she was given for her campaign funds.
Funny really – is the Karma Bus on its way to pick up a few more passengers.
CC
ICAC will have the Levine report criticising it over Cunneen set aside in the Supreme Court although I accept there is a certain insularity in a Supreme Court judge evaluating a report from a retired Supreme Court judge concerning the conduct of a Supreme court judge.
Dunno about Kear but ICAC is allowed to fuck up just like you and me.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/scott-morrison-should-have-twigged-on-early-budget-says-turnbull-20160322-gnp0mv
[A senior source said the decision to spring the plan had been kept tight for several days because Mr Turnbull was paranoid about the Greens finding out before they had voted to pass laws on Senate voting changes that made the double dissolution possible.]
Usually when one has successfully double-crossed another party it is advisable to keep it to oneself. Leaking it in order to humiliate one’s despised colleague is more than unusually stupid…