BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition

The nation has gone on election alert, but there’s not much to report from the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, other than a continuation in the headlong plunge in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.

I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Kiwi’s sticking with the status quo.

    [
    New Zealand has voted to keep its traditional flag in a snub to the prime minister, John Key.

    Preliminary results announced at 8.30pm local time on Thursday showed that 1,200,003 (56.6%) of voters wanted to keep the Union flag-centred emblem. Only 915,008 (43.2%) opted for the proposed new design by Kyle Lockwood featuring a silver fern.
    ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/new-zealand-votes-to-keep-its-flag-in-referendum

  2. Sir Charles Court – He is not so well remembered for shutting down the rail line to Fremantle or using the legislature to ensure nobody could protest openly in the streets against his paternalistic view of democracy. His use of the police to keep the Noonkenbah locals at bay was straight out of the Lawn’order book of the his business mates. In addition, he presided over a nasty gerrymander which kept control of the Upper House in WA in conservative hands quite unfairly.

    All these stupidities have been corrected by later Labor governments.

    That he attracted investment to WA cannot be disputed but at what price is the question which is seldom posed. Many would argue that he sold out too cheap and the big mining companies laughed all the way to the bank.

    Court was/is a hero to the conservatives but he did not look so hero like when he was in power.

    Oh, I forgot, he did crow on one occasion when there was Liberal governments in both Canberra and Perth, that the total demise of the Labor party was just around the corner.

    Charlie Court was a little like Margaret Thatcher. Some thought they were the epitome of a good conservativatism while others were jumping for joy at the end of their political careers.

  3. Finally, some more donation scandals! Bring on the massive donation reform. It’s about time this became an issue.

    And even more incentive to use the Federal ICAC counterattack against the ABCC.

  4. Kiwi’s sticking with the status quo.

    [
    New Zealand has voted to keep its traditional flag in a snub to the prime minister, John Key.

    Preliminary results announced at 8.30pm local time on Thursday showed that 1,200,003 (56.6%) of voters wanted to keep the Union flag-centred emblem. Only 915,008 (43.2%) opted for the proposed new design by Kyle Lockwood featuring a silver fern.
    ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/new-zealand-votes-to-keep-its-flag-in-referendum

  5. Sir Charles Court – He is not so well remembered for shutting down the rail line to Fremantle or using the legislature to ensure nobody could protest openly in the streets against his paternalistic view of democracy. His use of the police to keep the Noonkenbah locals at bay was straight out of the Lawn’order book of the his business mates. In addition, he presided over a nasty gerrymander which kept control of the Upper House in WA in conservative hands quite unfairly.

    All these stupidities have been corrected by later Labor governments.

    That he attracted investment to WA cannot be disputed but at what price is the question which is seldom posed. Many would argue that he sold out too cheap and the big mining companies laughed all the way to the bank.

    Court was/is a hero to the conservatives but he did not look so hero like when he was in power.

    Oh, I forgot, he did crow on one occasion when there was Liberal governments in both Canberra and Perth, that the total demise of the Labor party was just around the corner.

    Charlie Court was a little like Margaret Thatcher. Some thought they were the epitome of a good conservatism while others were jumping for joy at the end of their political careers.

  6. [Tricot

    When dairy farmers were having a hard time of it years ago, the said farmers, through their Country Party clout, worked out that if kids had a third of a pint of milk a day at school – subsidised of course by the government of the day – then their income was assured. In other words a handy subsidy and/or hand out. Of course, such a policy was seen as a social plus despite the dubious value of the programme.]

    They had this milk when I was in primary school. The milko used to leave crates of one-third pint bottles early in the morning and we would drink it at playlunch (morning recess) time. We weren’t allowed to eat anything until we had finished the milk. On a hot day the stuff went rancid but at least it was free for poorer families like mine. Probably gave dairy farmers a good living at taxpayer expense.

  7. Of course all this anti NSW lib merriment can fall to earth given that Obeid and McDonald are infinitely more likely to emulate Rex Jackson and that bloke in Qld than any lib

  8. [The good guys need to be right all the time, every time. The bad guys just have to get lucky once.]

    Yes, the IRA released that statement (or wtte) when they almost blew Thatcher sky high. It’s true that if terrorists are determined to hit a soft target and they are prepared to try and try again they will eventually succeed. What do you know about the effectiveness of anti terror squads in Australia or elsewhere? About as much as me I suspect i.e. next to nothing. The PM has stupidly goaded local terrorists to have a go at a strike as we will win. He also took pride is saying Australia is running second (behind the USA presumably) in the bombing stakes in Syria. I hope his foolishness doesn’t result in an attack on our patch over this Easter break.

  9. Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 15m15 minutes ago

    ABC News. ‘Police tighten security at Australian airports, but is it enough to stop a terrorist attack?’ Oh for goodness sake.

  10. [Sir Mad Cyril
    Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 7:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Kiwi’s sticking with the status quo.

    New Zealand has voted to keep its traditional flag in a snub to the prime minister, John Key.

    Preliminary results announced at 8.30pm local time on Thursday showed that 1,200,003 (56.6%) of voters wanted to keep the Union flag-centred emblem. Only 915,008 (43.2%) opted for the proposed new design by Kyle Lockwood featuring a silver fern.]

    I wonder if the chosen alternate flag design was designed to fail, like the republic model presented to Australians.

  11. [zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 7:12 pm | PERMALINK
    Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 15m15 minutes ago

    ABC News. ‘Police tighten security at Australian airports, but is it enough to stop a terrorist attack?’ Oh for goodness sake.]

    There is a huge difference in the level of airport security between the area inside the security checkpoints and the public areas where passengers check in. However if the check in areas were to be made secure (as at some overseas airports) then the airport carparks, roads, train stations etc would be vulnerable. There would be no end to the security presence.

  12. imacca

    [ Lets keep this issue in the public eye as long as possible. Now that its subject to “legal action” you can repeatedly refuse to comment on it over and over and over…….. ]

    Hard to believe, isn’t it? I think BB’s theory that these shenanigans are designed to stop the ALP having any clear air to release actual policy may be correct.

  13. Tom @510

    [What do you know about the effectiveness of anti terror squads in Australia or elsewhere?]

    10 years full time in the Australian Army including a tinsy bit of training with the SASR. Friends who were in the SASR and Commando Regiments (one commanded 2RAR in Afghanistan) and are either now high ranking Officers or working in Security Consultancies. Friends who have been Intel and worked specifically on “Desks” for terror organisations. Father-in-Law who reached high rank in the Police Force and was a negotiator and trained with all Agencies and dealt with intel.

    Apart from that – not much.

  14. imacca@514

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/24/arthur-sinodinos-threatens-legal-action-against-nsw-electoral-commission

    They are still floundering around looking for a spiv way of getting out of the corner they put themselves in.

    sinodinos looking at losing a job again, that is important to his future.

    Wonder how his memory is going ??

    🙂

    Yes Arfur, this is a great move.

    Lets keep this issue in the public eye as long as possible. Now that its subject to “legal action” you can repeatedly refuse to comment on it over and over and over……..

    Such a good look going into an election Wot!

  15. Keith Mason should have been a High Court judge, but cracked it unlucky in striking Howard as PM. He and I were chucked out of an election meeting in Holy Trinity Concord West church hall by the local Mutton bully boys (builders and MPs) for heckling Billy McMahon in the late 60’s. Incredibly smart bloke. Made QC by his peers at the ripe old age of 33. Dyson Heydon and he have demonstrated a strong mutual antipathy.

  16. No guarantee of Fairfax Mon-Fri print editions beyond 2016?

    [After journalists returned to work from a three-day strike this week Fairfax Media’s chief executive, Greg Hywood, had some good news and some bad news about the future of the Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. The good news: the papers won’t stop printing the Monday to Friday editions this year. The bad news: there is no guarantee beyond those short nine months because “I can’t say that newspapers are forever.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/24/the-weekly-beast-dont-say-papers-are-forever-at-fairfax

  17. [ Hard to believe, isn’t it? I think BB’s theory that these shenanigans are designed to stop the ALP having any clear air to release actual policy may be correct. ]

    What will be interesting overall is how long the Libs stay in the omnishambolic clusterfwark stage of their campaign?

    The ability to control election timing is one of the major benefits of incumbency. Spring it on the Opposition so they are left playing catch up while the Govt hits the ground running.

    This Govt has hit the ground and gone splat into a big stinky pile of tangled up messages going in all directions, while the Opposition have been cantering along quite comfortably in good formation.

    I like it. 🙂

  18. Briefly at 465

    That is seriously a ridiculous proposition. So, following your logic, in the days the Communist Party of Australia preferenced against Labor, including in 1963 when some suggest their preferences cost Labor Government, that they were not a left wing party?

    This is the thing and it comes back to my comments about Clinton and Sanders. Some Labor people seem to feel a sense of entitlement to progressive votes. Apparently, it should not matter how much they lurch to the right, progressive voters must suck it up all in the name of some sort of pragmatism. It just doesn’t work that way; eventually people say enough is enough and seek alternatives.

  19. [Don’t know if it made ABC news. ]

    It was mentioned – way back at around the 7:10 aprox.

    It was spun very much as a ‘state’ matter although it did show turnbull walking away from a media question.

    It would have been far more vigorous reporting had it been labor.

    No mention of the importance of these matters or the background, viz –

    The Coalition went to the 2011 NSW election on a public platform of anti-corruption, while privately its MPs, its candidates and its party administration were systematically corrupting the state’s party-donation laws – across a range of areas including down to the level of paper bags stuffed with cash.

    Six years later the AEC has been unable to get co-operation or the information required by L-A-W and has withheld any further public funding until it does.

    ABC TV News in Sydney didn’t scratch the surface on these issues.

  20. Compact Crank@518

    Tom @510

    What do you know about the effectiveness of anti terror squads in Australia or elsewhere?


    10 years full time in the Australian Army including a tinsy bit of training with the SASR. Friends who were in the SASR and Commando Regiments (one commanded 2RAR in Afghanistan) and are either now high ranking Officers or working in Security Consultancies. Friends who have been Intel and worked specifically on “Desks” for terror organisations. Father-in-Law who reached high rank in the Police Force and was a negotiator and trained with all Agencies and dealt with intel.

    Apart from that – not much.

    And of course they all discussed all of that intel with you.

    How very unprofessional.

  21. [Terrorism porn]

    Wis it that the media thinks we are interested in the minute-by-minute minutae of which Wooftah said what to the other Fuzzy Wuzzy?

    Why is it important that that we know the hour-by-hour fatality count?

    What is the need for serious money to be spent sending foreign correspondents to stand up to camera in front of a public square and tell us that “Just hours ago this was a scene of carnage”?

    You are right: terrorism porn.

    Turnbull this morning was just promoting it. He thinks that by bragging we have the best border protection on Earth, and that we bombed the Fuzzies just one stick short of the ferocity with which the Americans bombed them somehow or other doesn’t egg the Wuzzies on to have a go.

    It seems to me Malcolm is PRAYING for a terrorist strike on home turf here.

    Truly a despicable chap.

  22. [It would have been far more vigorous reporting had it been labor.]

    Are you joking? It would have been the Advent Of The Anti-Christ if it was the ALP.

  23. Citizen@508

    Exactly as I remember it too. It was something of a coup to be the ‘Milk Monitor’ for the class as was the case.

    I hated milk like this and never drank it. Some of the kids got sick for the reason you mention.

    This was not seen then as some kind of handout to dairy farmers rather a kind of good thing for kids who wanted/needed the milk and those who did not.

    But somebody posted earlier blowing the virtues of the compassionate conservative which is a contradiction in terms.

    As you rightly put it, a nice little earner for dairy farmers at the time at taxpayer expense. But then this is not socialism is it?

    The bit that always gets me is some farmer 20 kms off the beaten track on some dirt road, whinging that his road is not sealed for him and about 3 other users of the road.

    The usual complaint was that country people “do it tough” while those in the city are on easy street. An obvious justification for money to be spent in the country but this is not agrarian socialism as seen the the perspective of those in the bush getting the government handout.

  24. [Are you joking? It would have been the Advent Of The Anti-Christ if it was the ALP]

    With Leigh Sales extremely serious, indeed grave face, this being the end of democracy as we know it.

  25. [The audience is broader than us politics obsessives.]

    Not every other night when politics is front and centre, particularly if a chance is presented to have Mal look prime ministerial.

  26. Sensible:

    [“We can respond to events in Brussels with a quiet and dignified sympathy, with candles and silences. To downplay something is not to ignore it. The terrorists have specific aims, deploying their atrocities for a political cause. There is no sensible defence in a free society against atrocity. But there is a defence against its purpose. It is to avoid hysteria, to show caution and a measure of courage, not Cameron’s lapse into public fear. It is not to alter laws, not to infringe liberties, not to persecute Muslims.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/24/scariest-brussels-reactoin-paranoid-politicians-isis-atrocity-belgium

  27. adrian@544

    The audience is broader than us politics obsessives.


    Not every other night when politics is front and centre, particularly if a chance is presented to have Mal look prime ministerial.

    Watch them try to wash all of this away over easter.

    turnbull no doubt has media lined up over the long weekend out n about being ‘excited’ yet humble.

    Lets see if the media will rollover on all of this.

    Yeah. Ha!

  28. [40.WWP can you get your 9 year old daughter to explain the Brussels bombings for us there seems to be a bit of confusion?]

    Year 9 at school, and no not to you, but with a more intelligent and honest audience she’d be able to hold up her end of a discussion of why people from Iraq, Palestine and other places might well consider crimes of terrorism.

  29. adrian@544

    The audience is broader than us politics obsessives.


    Not every other night when politics is front and centre, particularly if a chance is presented to have Mal look prime ministerial.

    Just daft.

  30. bemused @532

    Nice try. Fail.

    No. They didn’t discuss specific intel with me (except in a professional capacity). But, there is plenty of relevant discussion about the capabilities and competency of various agencies.

  31. WeWantPaul@547

    40.WWP can you get your 9 year old daughter to explain the Brussels bombings for us there seems to be a bit of confusion?


    Year 9 at school, and no not to you, but with a more intelligent and honest audience she’d be able to hold up her end of a discussion of why people from Iraq, Palestine and other places might well consider crimes of terrorism.

    Characters like these who grew up in Brussels are in a different category. It seems like some kind of nihilism that is not strongly religious motivated.

    And most scarily, they seem to flip over into that kind of mindset in a very short period of time.

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