BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition

The nation has gone on election alert, but there’s not much to report from the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, other than a continuation in the headlong plunge in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.

I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition”

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  1. [Just daft]

    You really are a friggin idiot. Every night we have politics with dear old Sabra. But not tonight.

    [Lets see if the media will rollover on all of this.]

    Very good chance.

  2. Hey now you better listen to me everyone of you
    We got a lotta lotta lotta lotta work to do . . . .
    —
    Hi there, everybody

    Got my dancin’ shoes back on.

    But good to say gedday after such a long while

    I’ve promised to be on my best behaviour, and I have a swear jar.

  3. WWP when I asked how people can hate so much (terrorists) in a moment of anguish after the loss of innocent life, you stated or daughter understood, yes you actually used your daughter, just to take a jab at me because you where shown to be talking complete bollocks about the ABC being intimidated over the NBN. You sad poor bastard actually using your daughter, you must be a real piece of work. I have been called everything under the sun on this site, but you stooped the lowest.

  4. [Characters like these who grew up in Brussels are in a different category. It seems like some kind of nihilism that is not strongly religious motivated.]

    I have never ever subscribed to the view that religion is a key motivator. Yeah it is in the picture and it certainly hurts us when idiots in the West go on an anti-Islam hate fest, but it isn’t a key driver.

  6. frednk
    [The Liberals are really out to screw the Greens. You would have thought someone would have listened to Sarah Hanson-Young.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-21/sa-greens-senators-vying-for-top-ticket-spot/7264268
    [A pre-selection ballot has already been held among SA Greens members to order the ticket in case of a double dissolution election, but the results have been sealed and will not be revealed until an election is called.

    Despite facing an uphill battle to get both Greens senators elected, Senator Hanson-Young remained optimistic and was not concerned about losing her seat.

    “In 2007 and in 2013 people told me the Greens couldn’t win a Senate seat here in South Australia and we proved them wrong,” she said.

    “I think, absolutely, we can [prove them wrong] again.”

    Senator Simms said the Greens were planning a big local campaign and his focus was not on pre-selection.

    “Our focus is on getting two senators elected and I’m very proud that the party has a democratic process for resolving these kinds of matters, so I’m very relaxed with how the process is unfolding.”]

  7. [Hard to believe, isn’t it? I think BB’s theory that these shenanigans are designed to stop the ALP having any clear air to release actual policy may be correct.]

    It may well be the most cunning plan ever hatched in the history of cunning plans.

  9. It’s so good to know religion isn’t a key driver for Islamicist Terrorist acts.

    Not really sure the perps will agree with you but it’s very reassuring for us so we can focus on what is actually causing it – is it Global Warming?

  12. [ Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    ..

    “Our focus is on getting two senators elected and I’m very proud that the party has a democratic process for resolving these kinds of matters, so I’m very relaxed with how the process is unfolding.”
    ]
    Pegagus; comprehension; comprehension; that article is about accepting the second spot; not the greens leadership making unwinnable.

  15. [
    Compact Crank
    Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    It’s so good to know religion isn’t a key driver for Islamicist Terrorist acts.

    Not really sure the perps will agree with you but it’s very reassuring for us so we can focus on what is actually causing it – is it Global Warming?
    ]
    A bunch of desert people getting to much money from oil is what is funding it.

  16. Ian McAuley:

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/03/24/the-other-reason-turnbull-might-want-a-double-dissolution/
    [The question we should ask is whether our Westminister two-party system, in which small factions within parties can determine policy, is sustainable. Perhaps we should be thinking about a transition to a Dutch, German or Nordic system of multi-party democracy – a system with more consensus, more policy continuity and less risk of manipulation by populists or extremists.]

  17. Cranky

    [ Not really sure the perps will agree with you but it’s very reassuring for us so we can focus on what is actually causing it – is it Global Warming? ]

    In a way, yes. The collapse in petrochemicals has made much of the middle east irrelevant. Nobody in the west cares much about propping up the puppet regimes any more. This is the result.

  19. frednk

    Yes, I do understand despite you thinking I am stupid and lack comprehension skills. Appreciate the condescension though.

    Posted what I wanted to in response to what I wanted.

  20. Regarding the NZ flag referendum – I didn’t quite like the design of the question, it didn’t give people the ability to properly choose, imo, their preferred flag.

    It is entirely possible (I’m not suggesting this would have happened, just that it is a valid tactic) for people who wanted to keep the original flag to choose a bad flag design in the final referendum, and therefore I would have preferred the four preselected flags to go up against the original flag in a preferential voting referendum – 1 to the flag you like the most, 2 to the flag you like second most, etc. I think this would have been the best way to pose the question of a referendum.

  21. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    This snippet indicates the no vote may have been influenced by a Fuack the Nationals/Key factor . Key was the driver of the call for change,
    [New Zealand would have a new flag if it were up to six of its 71 electorates.

    A majority of voters in……All of those areas are held by National MPs.

    Support for the current flag was strongest in Maori electorates, including Te Tai Tokerau (78.5 per cent) and Tamaki Makaurau (77.5 per cent).]
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11611437

  23. kezza2@552

    Hey now you better listen to me everyone of you
    We got a lotta lotta lotta lotta work to do . . . .
    —
    Hi there, everybody

    Got my dancin’ shoes back on.

    But good to say gedday after such a long while

    I’ve promised to be on my best behaviour, and I have a swear jar.

    Good to see you back K2.
    Did William sin bin you?

  24. https://theconversation.com/choppergate-no-more-what-the-review-of-politicians-entitlements-will-mean-56196
    [As holders of public office, we expect politicians to use taxpayer funds responsibly. To achieve this, we need an entitlements system that is transparent, with claims reported regularly and publicly. We should have an independent authority actively monitoring claims and vigilantly enforcing breaches.

    This will keep politicians more honest, in line with public expectations. It is only with a robust entitlements system that “Choppergate” will not be repeated.]

  26. I thought the best explanation on here of late was Meher Baba’s thesis that it was about adult (or nearly adult) men playing at being tribes of boys.

    It has always struck me that this is about socialization, sense of identity, teenage (delayed or not) rebellion etc – kids/young men who don’t feel like they fit in get seduced by the words of others to be a group standing against the world. Religion is a veneer as far as I can tell. And focusing on religion in response is to completely miss the point and be unable to rationally assess the path to any sort of solution.

  27. Worth listening to… Today’s ABC RN The Money program:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/themoney/how-can-australia-fix-its-housing-affordability-crisis/7259622
    [This housing affordability crisis has re-awakened debate over contentious issues, such as the negative gearing of investment properties.

    How would a change to negative gearing impact on property values and rents? And what other levers could be pulled to help those currently locked out of the housing market?]

  29. Pegasus

    It seemed a strange thing to post as OPV has probable cost Sarah Hanson-Young her senate seat (assuming she gets the second position).

  30. [Latika M Bourke
    3 mins ·
    Many hoped that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better diplomat than Tony Abbott but Belgium says Australia’s PM responded to the Brussels attacks exactly how Islamic State would have wanted.]

    Oh dear. Still pitching to the rightwingers. When will Turnbull learn that his appeal with most voters was because he was seen as a break from them, not a continuation of the Abbott era.

  31. I think Meher Baba’s (?) recent post that ISIS recruits are boys joining the world’s biggest street gang is on the money.

  32. confessions

    [ When will Turnbull learn that his appeal with most voters was because he was seen as a break from them, not a continuation of the Abbott era. ]

    Continuity and shortchanged!

  35. Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham 11m11 minutes ago

    I’m just going to make a few points about Arthur Sinodinos.

    1. He’s Cabinet Secretary – the guy who takes the minutes on the executive

    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham 11m11 minutes ago

    2. Sinodinos is therefore in one the single most important roles in Australian executive government

  36. playerone @567

    There has been no collapse in petrochemicals – in fact petrochemicals are booming due to low feedstock prices and building new plants and expanding and improving old ones is a good place to be.

    Funny – all the AGW catastrophists told us we would never see oil under USD100 per barrel again and Peak Oil! and … oh.

  38. confessions – given the events of recent in Belgium and the interrelated ones in France it doesn’t look like the Belgians have got much of a freaking idea about what to do about the problem and are failing spectacularly.

  39. Funny that the only religions doing well these days are macho warrior religions, whether militant Islam or the sort of muscular fundamentalist Christianity we see especially in the USA. “Gentle Jesus meek and mild” doesn’t cut it. If you want followers, give permission to be a violent bigot.

  40. kezza2,

    Good to see you around here again! 🙂

    But this Greens-Labor aggro has to stop!!!!

    Don’t hold your breath. It’s all The Greens have got. 😀

  41. Player – that’s oil prices – not petrochemicals. Petrochemicals are made from oil so when oil goes down it’s marvellous for Petrochemicals.

  42. Cranky

    [ Player – that’s oil prices – not petrochemicals. Petrochemicals are made from oil so when oil goes down it’s marvellous for Petrochemicals. ]

    You are a real imbecile.

  43. Steve777,

    Funny that the only religions doing well these days are macho warrior religions

    Or ones that allow you to make lots of money, as long as you give them 1/10th. 🙂

  45. Some nice lines from Bob Ellis tonight:

    Is Sinodinos smart enough? Turnbull seems not to be. Morrison certainly isn’t. You wouldn’t ask Dutton to coax a cat out of a tree.

    🙂

  46. Hugely disappointed with Turnbull’s Brussells speech last night. What was he thinking? Was he trying to channel Abbott, in which case he has gone down enormously in my estimation.

  48. [confessions 580

    When will Turnbull learn that his appeal with most voters was because he was seen as a break from them, not a continuation of the Abbott era.]

    Only possible explanations left for voters to choose from are:

    1) he can’t control Abbott and the hard right, and so has to capitulate to them, or

    2) he largely agrees with their agenda (or at least doesn’t disagree with it as strongly as he might like voters to think), and has no intention of making major policy changes from the Abbott era.

    Neither of which are going to help him retain votes.

  49. From today’s Crikey on whether the Windsor experience this election is analogous to Maxine McKew’s in Bennelong.

    Windsor — a former member for New England — retired from politics at the end of June 2013 after having backed prime minister Julia Gillard to form minority government after the knife-edge 2010 election. He is a seasoned and accomplished candidate. He was a particularly influential and effective member of the crossbench between 2010 and 2013, and was a strong advocate for his seat; this, despite the flak that he inevitably attracted from his predominantly conservative electorate for backing Gillard.

    During the Gillard prime ministership, Windsor was instrumental in ensuring that the government passed more than 880 individual pieces of legislation while securing significant gains for New England, including an early rollout of the ALP’s fibre-to-the-premises National Broadband Network in the electorate. With some reservations, Windsor also supported Gillard’s highly controversial carbon tax legislation introduced in July 2012.

    Windsor could comfortably defeat Joyce in New England based on the Newspoll numbers. There are not many precedents in Australian electoral history for this. A standing Nationals leader and deputy prime minister being unseated at a federal election has happened only once before: Charles Blunt, defeated by the ALP’s Neville Newell in the 1990 federal election. Barnaby may be the second.

    Famously, prime minister John Howard lost both the prime ministership and his seat of Bennelong to former ABC journalist and Labor candidate Maxine McKew in 2007 after holding the seat for some 33 years. The seat had been in Liberal hands since 1949.

    McKew went on to become a parliamentary secretary in the first Rudd government before losing the seat to a celebrity candidate, former tennis great John Alexander, in the 2010 election. McKew lost the seat with a swing against her of over 5%.

    McKew, unlike Tony Windsor in New England, had little enduring appeal with the voters of Bennelong. It might not be too unkind to suggest that McKew was like the car-chasing dog that actually catches the car but has no idea what to do with it.

    Windsor, by contrast, has both a long personal legacy and more than a modicum of gravitas in his electorate.

    His record as a political figure goes back to 1991 when he was elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly as the member for Tamworth. He held the seat until October 2001 and was, somewhat portentously, one of a cadre of independents that held the balance of power during the Greiner-led Liberal-National NSW government. He was instrumental in forcing Greiner’s resignation following unfavourable rulings against Greiner by the Independent Commission Against Corruption (which were later overturned).

    Windsor switched to federal politics in 2001, contesting the seat of New England, and historically defeated standing Nationals candidate Stuart St. Clair by over 20%, ending an 80-year reign by the Nationals in the seat. In 2004 he increased his margin to 21% and in the election that marked the ousting of John Howard in 2007, Windsor’s margin increased to an impressive 24%.

    Joyce is a former senator for Queensland and was parachuted into the New England electorate as his plan B for securing a lower house seat in the 2013 election. As reported in The Chronicle on April 15, 2013: “Senator Joyce had previously hoped to run in the southern Queensland seat of Maranoa, before sitting member Bruce Scott announced his intention to recontest …”

    That New England was his second choice — and his motivations seemed largely political rather than because of any enduring connection to the electorate — will not be overlooked by New England’s voters at the ballot box.

    Being firmly entrenched on the frontbench and in the cabinet of a Coalition government that is hellbent on mining the Liverpool Plains (slap bang in the middle of New England) will hardly help Joyce’s cause. Joyce has suggested to his cabinet colleagues that the plan is ill advised, but his advocacy on the issue pales into insignificance compared to that of Tony Windsor, who has clearly felt the zeitgeist in the electorate.

    Joyce could easily repeat the ignominy suffered by John Howard in 2007.

    What is far less likely, however, is that his nemesis will squander the spoils of victory and suffer shades of Maxine McKew.

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