BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition

The nation has gone on election alert, but there’s not much to report from the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, other than a continuation in the headlong plunge in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.

I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 17
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  2. Just Me:

    He’s making a huge mistake in continually cowing to them, that’s for sure. He had so much political capital when he first became leader, but he’s thrown it all away on silly culture war issues.

  3. And I wouldn’t want to be in Arfur’s shoes. Getting a bit too politically whiffy around him.

    Wonder how many reliable allies he has left in the Libs now?

  6. If Turnbull had made his Brussels speech six months ago I would have been extremely surprised, shocked even. But by now, what shocks me is that anyone is surprised. He has spent the last six months trying to cuddle up to the right of his party; and where has it got them? What is more surprising is that he has failed to realise or accept that it really does not matter how much he tries, the hard right, neither in the party or the commentariat, will accept him.

  7. The thing that I can’t get over iscthat channel 7 grab of Turnbull someone posted a day or two ago. Right down to the shots showing him being made up for camera it was almost an editors stitch up to show him in the worst possible light.

  8. confessions,
    It’s obvious the RWNJs have no respect for him at all and are just going to keep turning the screws on Turnbull until the pips squeak! I guess they know he’ll eventually crack up again. They succeeded last time in order to install Abbott as LOTO, so now they’re at it again.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they went to the AEC in order to get Sinodinos, being as he was the brains behind the Turnbull coup with Brough.

    Very nasty business all of it and playing out again in the run-up to a federal election.

    Only difference is, Abbott isn’t as popular, residually, as Rudd was. Plus, there’s no other Conservative darling that appeals to the electorate to replace him.

    Which is all good for Labor. 🙂

  9. adrian@551

    Just daft


    You really are a friggin idiot. Every night we have politics with dear old Sabra. But not tonight.

    Lets see if the media will rollover on all of this.


    Very good chance.

    Well, Lateline seems to be devoted to the Libs problems.

    So I guess we now know who the ‘friggin idiot’ is.

  10. [kezza2
    Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 8:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Hey now you better listen to me everyone of you
    We got a lotta lotta lotta lotta work to do . . . .
    —
    Hi there, everybody

    Got my dancin’ shoes back on.

    But good to say gedday after such a long while

    I’ve promised to be on my best behaviour, and I have a swear jar.]

    Hi Kezza

    Good to see you back. I hope we’ll get to see the best of you this time.

  11. Economically, Turnbull is a Thatcherite. He has no problems with any of the Abbott Government’s economic agenda. In fact I was surprised that Abbott turned out to be Thatcherite, being an old DLP man. He was always a ferocious culture warrior of the right, but seemed to be more centrist in economic matters. But Abbott never seemed to care much about (or know much about) the economy. He was probably turned by Murdoch when he accepted the Ring of Power.

    I think that Turnbull is happy to put his aspirations for a more liberal, inclusive Australia on hold, if that is the price of power. After all, he’s been happy to defer the Australian republic for 30-50 years and serious action on climate change for 10+ years, if that’s what it takes.

  12. 606
    You obviously think his speech was off the mark. It was actually quite accurate. But never let that get in the road of politics.

  13. silmaj@612

    606
    You obviously think his speech was off the mark. It was actually quite accurate. But never let that get in the road of politics.

    Then why did the Belgian Ambassador jump in to correct him?

  14. C@tmomma @ 608: It’s the New South Wales Electoral Commission, not the AEC, which has taken the action in which Senator Sinodinos is now caught up. The two bodies are completely separate. (You’re not the first person on this thread to have got the two confused.)

  17. His speech was not only off the mark, it was also extremely poorly timed, insensitive and given for domestic political reasons more than anything else.

  19. Only to get them out of the media…

    Sarah Gerathy ‏@sarahgerathy 4h4 hours ago

    NSW Liberal party caves to Electoral Commission demands on anonymous donors #nswpol #auspol . Statement:

  21. C@t:

    Turnbull’s capitulation to the wingnuts is incredibly disappointing. Abbott promised grown up govt and obviously was never able to deliver it, but Turnbull at least gave the perception of returning respect to the office of PM. But he can’t do even that.

  22. The two Brussels bombers who have been identified are Belgian nationals, not recent arrivals. Turnbull was talking Abbottist bullshit, dogwhistling to the peanut gallery.

  24. [and given for domestic political reasons more than anything else.]

    A point even Latika Bourke of all people was able to pick up.

    Very poor and very un-Prime Ministerial.

  26. Steve777

    [ The two Brussels bombers who have been identified are Belgian nationals, not recent arrivals. Turnbull was talking Abbottist bullshit, dogwhistling to the peanut gallery. ]

    Lets hope he continues. This “Terrorists Boo!” crap was a significant factor in Abbott’s eventual fall from grace.

  27. 618
    Bullshit. The speech associated porous borders as a hinderence for the local authorities to fully combat terrorism. When a million new people can freely travel between these countries what do you thinks going to happen. The Authorities would be lucky to know half of who’s roaming about. But never let the sheer logistical problem they, Europe faces get in the road of labors ignorance of a fact or two.

  31. [525
    matt31

    Briefly at 465

    That is seriously a ridiculous proposition. So, following your logic, in the days the Communist Party of Australia preferenced against Labor, including in 1963 when some suggest their preferences cost Labor Government, that they were not a left wing party? ]

    Matt, you’d be a lot better off not trying to assert that the CPA was an instrument of the Australian working class. Such a presumption was wrong in 1941. It was wrong in 1961. It was was wrong when the CPA voted to dissolve itself in 1991.

    It is equally wrong to suppose that the linear descendants of the old CPA – that is, certain elements of the Greens – should be regarded as instruments of Australian workers. They may think of themselves in those terms. But they’re wrong. They are a source of obstruction, division and defeat for working people.

  33. silmaj@627

    618
    Bullshit. The speech associated porous borders as a hinderence for the local authorities to fully combat terrorism. When a million new people can freely travel between these countries what do you thinks going to happen. The Authorities would be lucky to know half of who’s roaming about. But never let the sheer logistical problem they, Europe faces get in the road of labors ignorance of a fact or two.

    Well isn’t Australia lucky that it has a much smaller population than the EU?

    So you think the EU is wrong to allow freedom of movement between its members? That is clearly what you are saying.

    And you cannot wriggle out of the fact that Turnbull was trying to cast aspersions on refugees when it was Belgian nationals who committed the terrorist acts.

  36. 630
    What are his problems. He’s asked the accusers to retract. If they don’t it goes to court. If he loses he’s toast . If he wins well I guess that’s parliamentary privilege for the accusers.

  37. 611
    Steve777

    Abbott, Turnbull and the rest may float Thatcherite rhetoric, but like Thatcher herself, their claims are more honoured in the breach than the observance.

    The Abbott-Turnbull Government is running an expansionary fiscal policy, reflected in the generous deficit, a defict that is keeping the domestic economy afloat. They talk about restraint but they are not cutting spending. What they really mean is to change the direction of public spending away from the least-well-off in favour of the most well-off.

    Their program is re-distributive.

  38. The ALP betrayed the working class when it severed the link between productivity increases and wages. During the past forty years wage increases have fallen significantly short of productivity increases; the difference was taken away from the wages share of national income and distributed upwards to the profits share. This has been the result of deliberate policy choices by Australian governments.

    Th Greens are the most pro-worker party we’ve got.

  39. Australian climate outlook April to June: warm pretty much everywhere, rainfall close to average except for far North, where dry.

  41. 633
    Allow what you think is good and suffer the consequences. Turnbull stated as I repeated. It’s the pathetic media/ political reword that is your problem. And your problem is you either believe the interpretation or the follow the labor election platform no matter what.

  44. Silmaj

    Professor Orchard on the Drum explained that every single one of the “millions” entering Europe are vetted and registered.

    And the perpetrators of all the well known European terrorist attacks have been European nationals. Silly old conservo shill Nick Cater didn’t like that info and I guess you won’t either.

    Don’t let the facts get in your way.

  45. Aside from the spike that occurred during the resources boom of the late 70’s/early 80’s, a boom that collapsed almost as soon as it began, the wages share of the economy has been fairly stable since Gough. This reflects the very significant improvement in social incomes achieved by successive Labor Governments.

  47. silmaj@641

    633
    Allow what you think is good and suffer the consequences. Turnbull stated as I repeated. It’s the pathetic media/ political reword that is your problem. And your problem is you either believe the interpretation or the follow the labor election platform no matter what.

    He is condemned by his own words.

  50. 647
    He is condemned by labor and their supporters as is Shorten by Liberal supporters and the odd green. Nothing more nothing less.

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