BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition

The nation has gone on election alert, but there’s not much to report from the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, other than a continuation in the headlong plunge in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.

I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Turnbull in one speech managed to grossly offend a mid-ranking Liberal-Democratic European State, currently in grief from the murder of many of its citizens.

    Belgium, a country used to invasion and occupation in living memory, quickly had its Australian Ambassador up effectively condemning Turnbull’s speech. This will not not go unnoticed in diplomatic circles.

    Turnbull’s first foray into international diplomacy ranks a 0/10. I doubt Julie Bishop gave the tick to that speech.

  2. silmaj

    Sinodinos is again in the situation of having presided over alleged corruption.

    Saying you didn’t know about it is almost as bad as being involved in this case.

    How come Artie never knows what is going on?

  3. That’s not a slogan, it’s a slogan.

    from the ABC transcript…
    [
    TONY JONES: Alright you’ve made your point. Are you going to change your slogan “continuity and change” now that you’ve realised how silly it is?

    MALCOLM TURNBULL: (laughs) Well it’s not, it’s not a slogan and I’m not into slogans.

    TONY JONES: Well a slogan is a phrase that is used repeatedly, a short memorable phrase used in political campaigning.

    MALCOLM TURNBULL: Yes, well…

    TONY JONES: So I’d have to say it is a slogan because you’ve used it repeatedly.

    MALCOLM TURNBULL: No I’ve not used that slogan.

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4431639.htm
    ]

  4. Rossmore

    Given Australia let an Islamist facing an accessory to murder charge wander around free after asking our Attorney General how to contact a terrorist organisation, I was also surprised Turnbull had the idiocy to chastise Belgium’s counter-terrorism forces.

  5. [How come there isn’t more schadenfreude here about Artie’s legal problems? Have you lot all gone soft?]
    Schadenfreude is best enjoyed with a wink and a wry smile. 😉

  6. I’m not sure how Turnbull looked on Lateline (I don’t watch it), but I did see footage of Turnbull on the Feed (SBS) yesterday. They showed him before and after a outdoor press conference – he looked angry, confused, and extremely unhappy. He won’t last out the election campaign by the look of it.

  7. [I don’t know how it came across on TV but it seems Turnbull is struggling to get clear air.]

    Went seamlessly from jaw-dropping absurdity to waffling tedium.

  8. 652
    Sinodinos has said he was not involved in the party decision in relation to declaration. Has he been asked. If he hasn’t then he doesn’t even need to look at his diary.

  9. “They have very little in common. Morrison knows nothing about the economy. Turnbull knows it all.”

    So between them, they know f-ck all.

  10. [ Don’t miss Lateline. Just hilarious. ]

    More like that please Mal. 🙂

    Our PM was NOT a happy camper.

    silmaj, Turnbulls talk about the inadequacies of the Belgian security arrangements and linking the bombings to refugees was stupid, insensitive, factually wrong (the three they have identified so far are Belgian citizens, 2 born there) and remarkably undiplomatic political opportunism. the man is a prick and deserves condemnation over it.

    Sinodinos is coming across as bent as a dogs hind leg. I really hope he goes flat out defending himself in as public a way as possible and that Turnbull tries hard to protect him. They deserve each other and all the shit that goes with this very sordid little issue of Liberal criminality. 🙂

    [ We know you’re not very bright. ]

    That’s a very complementary way to describe a Liberal drone bemused, are you well??

  11. 658
    Sohar

    Turnbott is campaigning against his own Party as much as against Labor. He cannot do both at the same time or for long. One day the electorate will figure out that he’s their problem and will vote to exchange him for the alternative.

  12. Diogenes@654

    Rossmore

    Given Australia let an Islamist facing an accessory to murder charge wander around free after asking our Attorney General how to contact a terrorist organisation, I was also surprised Turnbull had the idiocy to chastise Belgium’s counter-terrorism forces.

    All under a Liberal Govt.

  13. [ Sinodinos has said he was not involved in the party decision in relation to declaration. ]

    so what? 🙂 The actual problem is his involvement in laundering prohibited funds. The declaration to the Commission was just the vehicle the Libs used to Fwark Themselves Up Again. 🙂

    Lib Own Goals. Luvving It. 🙂

  14. 663
    Well your dumb ignorance of what is occurring in Belgium is your mistake.
    If sinodinos loses he’s toast. If not you will be wrong again.

  15. So why wasn’t the NSW Liberal party’s finance director and treasurer asked about declaring donations made while he was in the job?

  16. [One day the electorate will figure out that he’s their problem and will vote to exchange him for the alternative.]

    And that day will come when it is time to vote. All of the opinion polls tell us is how people are thinking when there is no election the next day, even if they are asked to imagine there is.

    When there is an election the next day, the public will decide who is most focussed on running the country. And if you show the world that you are focussed on squabbling within your own party you are gone. Policies are important, but they are second order for swinging voters. They just want a half-competent government that is at least prepared to look like it’s number one priority is the public not itself.

  17. Here is an excellent summary of the Sinodinos imbroglio

    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    10. To sum up: How is Arthur Sinodinos still in cabinet?

    Ben Eltham
    1h1 hour ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    9. ICAC testimony established that property developers donated to the NSW Libs via the FEF. This is unlawful under NSW electoral law

    Ben Eltham
    1h1 hour ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    8. Contrary to media reports, ICAC has not “cleared” Sinodinos. Operation Spicer has yet to report.

    Ben Eltham
    1h1 hour ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    7. The NSW Electoral Commission found that the Free Enterprise Foundation was a sham charity – a laundry for donors to remain anonymous

    Ben Eltham
    2h2 hours ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    6. When Sinodinos was chair of the finance committee of the NSW Libs, the party accepted $600k from the Free Enterprise Foundation

    Ben Eltham
    2h2 hours ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    5. When AWH donated to the Liberal Party, Sinodinos was also Treasurer of the NSW party, which accepted the $. He says he didn’t know

    Ben Eltham
    2h2 hours ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    4. While Sinodinos was deputy chair of AWH, the company donated $70k to the NSW Liberal Party. He says he didn’t know

    Ben Eltham
    2h2 hours ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    3. Sinodinos was a director then chair of Australian Water Holdings at the time the Obeid family bought a 30% stake. He says he didn’t know

    Ben Eltham
    2h2 hours ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    2. Sinodinos is therefore in one the single most important roles in Australian executive government

    Ben Eltham
    2h2 hours ago
    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham
    I’m just going to make a few points about Arthur Sinodinos.

    1. He’s Cabinet Secretary – the guy who takes the minutes on the executive

  18. Professor Orchard on the Drum explained that every single one of the “millions” entering Europe are vetted and registered

    I watched the drum this evening and this statement is not correct, he said that the majority that have been picked up at sea and others placed in camps have been registered. Registered and vetted are completely different, one is just your details the other is a complete background check. I would not take to much stock in what the professor saya anyway. Read some of the extracts from his book “The right to Flee” and he is a full blown lefty from academia.

    The professor also stated that 60% of the refugees coming to Europe where families. Eurostat figures “of the 1.2m asylum applicants in the last 12 months of available data, 73% were men, up from 66% in 2012”. Someone is not correct and I think it may be the professor.

  19. briefly@659

    656
    TPOF

    They have very little in common. Morrison knows nothing about the economy. Turnbull knows it all.

    You credit Turnbull with too much.

    Being a banker or lawyer does not make you an economist.

  20. imacca@663



    We know you’re not very bright.


    That’s a very complementary way to describe a Liberal drone bemused, are you well??

    Sorry, must be a bit out of form. Will try harder. 😛

  21. victoria

    Saw your comment re Trove. Looked up a number of papers when the ‘NZ Natives’ toured on their way to Pomgolia. Maori and Pakeha team they also played VFL and soccer matches. Even won a couple of games against current AFL clubs 🙂 .
    Anyways. Looking at the old papers on that topic and others it was surprising to see that back then NZ was commonly referred to as “Maoriland”.

  22. Nicholas @ 638

    You are kidding right?
    I don’t know what you do for work but I can guarantee if you come down to my work site and ask the guys who they think better represents them out of the ALP and Greens then I think you may skulk away with your tail between your legs.

    Better yet, just ask any working class person about the Greens in general and see the response you get.
    Ask them what they think about the Greens stance on asylum seekers for example.

    The response would make any of the jibes you greens get here on PB seem like a love letter.

    You are either joking or you truly think the working class consists of Doctors, environmental lawyers, academics, unemployed Uni students and social justice campaigners.

    It is a fact that the Greens are utterly despised by many working class people.

    More working class people would vote for the LNP ahead of the Greens.

    I don’t mind that you are a strong and passionate supporter of the greens but you will not get away unchallenged if you persist in talking complete rubbish.

  23. [Professor Orchard on the Drum explained that every single one of the “millions” entering Europe are vetted and registered..]

    Yes, that’s correct. They are registered and then vetted. Obviously there is a time lapse between the first and the second.

    The statement “My sister has been married and divorced” doesn’t mean that the two events were simulataneous.

    [“of the 1.2m asylum applicants in the last 12 months of available data, 73% were men, up from 66% in 2012..]

    The implication here is that the figures are from 2013. At this time, it is conceivable that the bulk of refugees were young men (there has been a tendency for families to send sons ahead to work and make money to bring the rest). Since 2013, the Syrian refugee crisis has worsened, which would make it more likely that there is an increased number of families in the mix.

  24. Briefly 666,
    “Mutual disdain would be their common ground, I suspect.”

    So we can expect Fairfax and the ABC to report that Turnbull and Morrison are unified by a common belief.

  25. “Turnbulls talk about the inadequacies of the Belgian security arrangements and linking the bombings to refugees was stupid”

    Wrong again I watched the Lowy address he did no such thing, not even close, stop lying, watch or read the speech.

    He stated that there was evidence that some Syrian radicals had entered Europe with refugees, he did not link this to Brussels, there was a link to border protection. You mob don’t let the truth get in the way of a good hate on do you.

  26. Dio

    As i mentioned this morning, Mark Kenny had alluded a few weeks ago to another scandal that may engulf another cabinet minister. Sinodinos was named as a possiblity. Turns out indeed was the case. He really should resign

  27. [670
    TPOF]

    I suspect you’re right. Opinion polling is essentially hypothetical at this point. Voters know it. In conversation with them, their most frequent observation is they’re watching and waiting to see what emerges during the campaigns. This may be said as a kind of defense by voters who actually wish to conceal their intentions, but my feeling is that very large numbers of voters really are undecided.

    While many want to support Turbull, they also have very low levels of trust in the Government. Abbott did immense harm to the Liberal brand in that respect. Very many voters have yet to decide if they can actually trust Turnbull even if they find him interesting and likeable. Voters most decidedly do not trust Abbott. They are very thoroughly repelled by him. The result is the more voters see of Abbott the more harm this does to the Liberal persona.

    Labor, on the other hand, has been a model of consistency, energy and clarity. If voters shift to Labor it will because of these tokens and because the Liberals have debauched their credit.

  28. [It indicates that Sinodinos has so little idea of what is going on under his watch that he’s incompetent.]
    Incompetent, dishonest or senile seem to be the most credible alternatives.

  29. Sohar@684

    Briefly 666,
    “Mutual disdain would be their common ground, I suspect.”

    So we can expect Fairfax and the ABC to report that Turnbull and Morrison are unified by a common belief.

    Try having a look at what was reported today.
    Your paranoid belief will be shattered.

  30. Steelydan@685

    “Turnbulls talk about the inadequacies of the Belgian security arrangements and linking the bombings to refugees was stupid”

    Wrong again I watched the Lowy address he did no such thing, not even close, stop lying, watch or read the speech.

    He stated that there was evidence that some Syrian radicals had entered Europe with refugees, he did not link this to Brussels, there was a link to border protection. You mob don’t let the truth get in the way of a good hate on do you.

    I watched it and he did make that link.
    Your hearing is obviously very selective..

  31. 682
    He was there From 11-12 it’s now 16. There is not an accusation of him being corrupt. There is an accusation of the liberal party not declaring names of donors after the event. Has he been asked if not why.

  32. briefly @ 687

    What voters think of Turnbull is almost irrelevant. If he is not in control of his party and leading it towards the centre the verdict will be: nice guy, but could not produce the goods.

    I have no doubt that most voters (even Labor voters) would rather have Turnbull than Shorten as PM. But they will vote for the party that they least distrust to run the country following the election. And the leader’s personal popularity (as opposed to their authority and competence) is a third rate issue.

  33. 693
    Your pathetic labor bias. I watched it too. I can rewatch it again and again. Over time it’s obvious a stalwart labor tragic will regurgitate the party line.

  34. [I watched it and he did make that link.
    Your hearing is obviously very selective.]

    Anyone who names them self after a dildo has got to have crap hearing what with all those vibration noises in his head day in, day out.

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